Variations in the Effect of Uncertainty on Different Types of Investment: An Empirical Investigation

Several recent studies, including those by Pindyck (1991), Pindyck and Solimano (1993), Dixit and Pindyck (1994), Episcopos (1995), and Abel et al . (1996), suggest an important linkage between the effect of uncertainty on investment and the irreversibility of the latter. This paper broadly follows the foregoing tradition, but makes the point that it should be possible to distinguish between investments with different degrees of irreversibility and to relate the effect of uncertainty with the degree of investment irreversibility. A simple empirical illustration is provided by using pooled annual data for 12 OECD countries and estimating fixed-effects models for different types of investments. Although caution is appropriate in interpreting the estimates, the evidence suggests that the adverse effect of uncertainty is more severe on investments that have a greater degree of irreversibility.     

Why do scientists cheat? Insights from behavioral economics

Abstract

Based on a review of the books by Wible (2014), Stephan (2012), and Lanteri and Vromen (2014), I discuss three different ways in which behavioral economics can enrich the understanding of scientific misbehavior. First, behavioral economics suggests that economic theories of scientific misbehavior, such as the one by Wible (2014), should consider moral costs of cheating, i.e. costs that arise from an individual’s desire to do the “right thing.” Second, behavioral economics demonstrates several ways in which the features of the reward scheme in science,as described by Stephan (2012), can favor cheating. Her conclusion that shirking is rarely an issue in science seems optimistic. Third, behavioral economics indicates that individual characteristics matter for cheating. According to Lanteri and Vromen (2014), economists possess different characteristics than other researchers. Hence, the reaction to incentives may differ across disciplines. Considering these insights is important to assess how a goal such as the pursuit of truth can be achieved efficiently.     

Analysing the determinants of bank efficiency: the case of Italian banks

Since PHILLIPS (1958) wrote his landmark article on the relationship between money wage rates and unemployment, much work has been conducted concerning ‘Phillips’ curves'. While some writers, such as LIPSEY (1960), SAMUELSON and SOLOW (1960) and HANSEN (1970), remained relatively close to Phillips' original model, other strayed from it. BRECHLING (1968), DICKS-MIREAUX and DOW (1959), ECKSTEIN (1968), ECKSTEIN and WILSON (1962), HAMERMESH (1970), KUH (1967), PERRY (1966), PHELPS (1968), and TAYLOR (1970) are a few researchers who felt Phillips' formulation did not adequately explain changes in money wage rates. Their approaches ranged from formulating entirely new models to merely adding other explanatory variables to Phillips' model.

The present study estimates a Phillips' curve for the United Kingdom within the framework of Phillips' basic hypothesis. He grouped all observations according to unemployment levels, averaged the wage changes for each group, and fitted a curve by trial and error to the compact body of data. The current approach fits a curve to all data points using a direct estimation procedure. Only two basic variables are used; money wage rates and unemployment.

REES and HAMILTON (1967) pointed out that the estimated relation between wage changes and unemployment is highly sensitive to the form of the variables and the regression employed. One can obtain widely scattered results by either changing the type of numerical analysis on existing data or by changing the defined variables. It would not be surprising if the results of the present analysis differ from previous works. Not only are some of the data sources different from those previously employed but the numerical analysis is entirely new to Phillips' curve theory. Spline theory is used to fit the Phillips' curve.     

OPTIMISM AND PESSIMISM IN GAMES

This article considers the impact of ambiguity in strategic situations. It extends the existing literature on games with ambiguity‐averse players by allowing for optimistic responses to ambiguity. We use the CEU model of ambiguity with a class of capacities introduced by Jaffrray and Philippe (Mathematics of Operations Research 22 (1997), 165–85), which allows us to distinguish ambiguity from ambiguity‐attitude, and propose a new solution concept, equilibrium under ambiguity (EUA), for players who may be characterized by ambiguity‐preference. Applying EUA, we study comparative statics of changes in ambiguity‐attitude in games with strategic complements. This extends work in Eichberger and Kelsey (Journal of Economic Theory 106 (2002), 436–66) on the effects of increasing ambiguity if players are ambiguity averse.     

Hepatocellular carcinoma: Prospective assessments of the T-factor with CT,US, and MR imaging

The capabilities of computed tomography (CT), ultrasonography (US), and magnetic resonance (MR) imaging were studied in order to determine the role of each of these noninvasive examinations for estimating the T-factor of hepatocellular carcinomas (HCCs). Fifty-one patients with surgically proven HCCs received CT (50 patients), US (46 patients), and MR (44 patients). The images of CT, US, and MR were prospectively evaluated for main tumor size, intrahepatic metastases, and vascular invasion, which compose the T-factor of HCC, and compared to pathological results. The sizes of the main tumor were estimated correctly by all examinations. For estimating intrahepatic metastases, US (74%) and MR (73%) were superior to CT (65%). For estimating portal invasion, CT (79%) was superior to US (70%) and MR (66%), because CT could demonstrate the segmental staining caused by portal invasion. The estimates of hepatic venous invasion were difficult during any of the examinations. We conclude that presurgical evaluations of the T-factor require the use of US and CT or MR and CT.     

Trend breaks and the fisher hypothesis in canada and the United States

Using the sequential estimation methodology developed by Banerjee, Lumsdaine and Stock (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 271–87, 1992), Zivot and Andrews (Journal of Business and Economic Statistics, 10(3), 251–70, 1992) and extended by Lumsdaine and Papell (Review of Economics and Statistics, 79(2), 212–18, 1997), empirical evidence is found consistent with the hypothesis that the 90-day Treasury Bill rate and the inflation rate in Canada and the US are stationary around a deterministic trend with two breaks. When the breaks are filtered out, the data is consistent with partial long-run adjustment of the nominal interest rate to an inflation shock, but not of the size predicted by the Fisher Effect.     

The Euro Area,a Stressful Monetary Union? Learning from Newspapers’ Monetary Policy Coverage

Through a textual analysis of national newspaper articles covering European central bankers’ statements and policy decisions from 1999 to 2011, I derive the concerns expressed by national media in the Economic and Monetary Union (EMU). I consider these concerns as a benchmark for national preferences, and thus for the preferences of national central bankers in the EMU. I also test the existence of groups of national media (i.e., national publics) according to their shared expressed concerns. The results show that in the euro zone, similar concerns are shared by different country groups, corresponding to a group of countries from Northern Europe (Belgium, Finland, and the Netherlands), Southern Europe (Spain and Portugal), and the Periphery (Italy, Greece, and Ireland), but that there are two isolated countries (France and Germany), whose newspapers do not share the issues raised by the rest of the European newspapers. This approach provides further insights into the potential heterogeneity of the European central bankers inside the Governing Council of the ECB in terms of policy preferences.     

Incumbent heterogeneity in creative destruction: a study of three Dutch newspaper organisations

With a study of three Dutch newspaper organisations, we identify four dimensions along which incumbent response to discontinuous change may differ: response timing (early or late), size of commitment to the new business (big or small), progression of commitment to the new business (continuous or intermittent), and approaches to bridging the capability gap (internal development, strategic alliance, or acquisition). These response strategies are neither mutually exclusive nor static, and their relative focus differs over time as well as across incumbents. Such inter-temporal and cross-sectional variations in response strategies are influenced by various incumbent-specific characteristics and shaped by interrelated contingencies internal or external to incumbents.     

Excess demand functions, equilibrium prices, and existence of equilibrium

Summary. For continuous aggregate excess demand functions of economies, the existing literature (e.g. Sonnenschein (1972, 1973), Mantel (1974), Debreu (1974), Mas-Colell (1977), etc.) achieves a complete characterization only when the functions are defined on special subsets of positive prices. In this paper, we allow the functions to be defined on a larger class of price sets, (allowing, for example the closed unit simplex, including its boundary). Besides characterizing excess demands for a larger class of economies, our extension provides a useful tool for proving other results. It allows us to characterize the equilibrium price set for a larger class of economies. It also permits extending Uzawa's observation (1962), by showing that Brouwer's Fixed-Point Theorem is implied by the Arrow-Debreu Equilibrium Existence Theorem (1954, Theorem I). Received: October 18, 1995; revised version June 28, 1996     

我国西部地区乡村坡地聚落迁移的过程与效应

坡地聚落是西部地区在特殊的山区条件下人地关系长期作用的表现形式。随着西部地区的人口增长,区域人地系统的人口压力日趋紧张,导致坡地聚落表现出向上、向下迁移的不同迁移过程,以适应调整中的人地关系。通过分析坡地聚落的空间迁移过程,文章认为应通过市场机制为主、政府扶持为辅的方式,引导人口和聚落向下迁移,减轻人口压力,促进西部地区的整体发展。     

Regulatory Compliance with Costly and Uncertain Litigation

Harrington (1988) and more recent papers by Heyes and Rickman (1999), Livernois and McKenna (1999), and Heyes (1996) have attempted to explain how a relatively large fraction of firms are thought to be in compliance with environmental regulations despite the fact that expected penalties for these violations are deemed rather low. This paper offers an alternative explanation for the interesting paradox by incorporating costly and uncertain litigation.     

劳动力转移过程中的高储蓄、高投资和中国经济增长

中国的转轨经济具有独特的增长模式,其典型特征就是持续的高储蓄率和高投资率。本文从劳动力转移的角度,解释了这种模式赖以产生的基础。我们认为,剩余劳动力由农业向工业(工业化)、由农村向城市(城市化)、由国有向非国有(市场化)的持续转移是我国经济能够长期、高速增长的关键,而高储蓄率和高投资率既是这种增长模式的必然结果,也是劳动力得以持续转移乃至这种增长模式得以维持的关键原因。为了防止效率低下的金融部门阻碍劳动力的转移,在开放经济条件下,引入纯粹金融意义的国际直接投资也就成为了必然。与此同时,本国金融部门也将持有一个规模逐步扩大的外汇储备。本文的另一个重要结论是,中国经济的增长和波动是统一的。尽管其中的机制有别于真实经济周期理论,但是,“中性”依然应该作为宏观经济政策的基本出发点。     

Industrial innovation and governmental policy: A review and proposal based on observation of the U.S. electronic sector

The U.S. electronics sector has been particularly successful at technological innovation since the 1940s. This paper addresses governmental policies that influence the process of technological innovation, drawing on aspects of the history of the electronics sector. Three topics receive particular attention—(1) uncertainties, ideas, and imperfect appropriability, (2) returns to R&D and associated investments, and (3) competition and selection environments. As a foundation for this discussion, several conceptual frameworks are briefly described and some classifications for innovation are explored, i.e., by importance (basic/improvement), by locus of change (process/product), by area of application (peaceful/dangerous), by locus of choice (private/public), and by value (worthwhile/not worthwhile). The discussion is underscored by the observation that better links between conceptual understanding and policy formulation are needed in order to derive practical insights into useful actions. One specific policy recommendation is tendered: an income tax credit on earnings of all employees (including salaried staff and managers) of R&D intensive firms. Such a policy would be appropriate from the standpoint of the topics outlined above (i.e., uncertainties, returns to R&D, and competition); the policy would also delegate responsibility for effective use of the subsidy to the employees and firms affected and would directly acknowledge and reward the contributions of individuals—whether in R&D, production, marketing, or support areas—to the innovative capabilities of their firms and the society at large.     

Opportunities and challenges created by terrorism

Besides being pushed by technical development and pulled by the demand for hi-tech products, technology is also often influenced greatly by the sudden impacts from other external environments. As shown by the aftermath of the 9/11 attacks (2001), Bali bombings (2002, 2005), Madrid bombings (2004), and London bombings (2005), some technologies have been fundamentally affected by terrorism, especially those concerning globalization, infrastructure, corporations, education, and individuals. Using system dynamics (SD) methodology, our paper first examines the causes of terrorism and why the United States was chosen as the target for the 9/11 terror attacks. The concept of SD helps analysts realize the variation of a complicated system and perceive how an internal feedback loop within a system impacts the whole system's behavior. After suffering the 9/11 attacks, the American-led coalition carefully considered how to study and develop effective methods for anti-terrorism strategies. These anti-terrorism efforts will have a major impact on technology development, and many opportunities and challenges are likely to arise from such development. Based on the qualitative analytic approach of causal loops, this article explores in detail the opportunities and challenges for technology development prompted by terrorism. The contribution of our study lies in appropriately analyzing links between terrorism and technology development in order to explain the present relevant technology situation and to initiate a discussion of future technology development trends.     

Reduced game and converse consistency

The initiating points of the current paper are the axiomatic characterizations, in terms of consistency, of the equal allocation of nonseparable cost value (by Moulin), the Shapley value (by Hart and Mas-Colell), and the prenucleolus (by Orshan). The basic axioms are the same, but three different reduced games can be used to distinguish these three solutions. The main purpose of the paper is to illustrate that besides the definitions of reduced games are different, the axiom converse consistency also plays an important role to distinguish these three solutions.     

HUMAN CAPITAL AND CONVERGENCE: A PRODUCTION‐FRONTIER APPROACH*

Using nonparametric, production‐frontier methods, we decompose labor productivity growth into components attributable to technological change (shifts in the world production frontier), technological catch‐up (movements toward or away from the frontier), and physical and human capital accumulation (movements along the frontier). We find that (1) technological change is decidedly nonneutral, (2) productivity growth is driven primarily by physical and human capital accumulation, (3) the increased international dispersion of productivity is explained primarily by physical capital accumulation, and (4) international polarization (the shift from a unimodal to a bimodal distribution) is brought about primarily by efficiency changes (technological catch‐up).     

Local versus Global Assessment of Mobility*

Mobility indices are popular tools designed to quantify the extent of income changes by aggregating “local” distributional change into a “global” scalar according to some rule. For some mobility measures, this aggregation rule is only implicit in their standard definition. We derive an insightful approximation to the (statistical) aggregation rule for the important class of mobility indices introduced by Shorrocks (Journal of Economic Theory 19 (1978), 376–93) and further generalized by Maasoumi and Zandvakili (Economic Letters 22 (1986), 97–102), which enables us to characterize their normative properties. We also develop methods for estimation and inference. A substantive empirical contribution emerges from the comparison of mobility between the United States and Germany. Our methods reveal why income mobility is higher in Germany than in the United States: Higher German mobility in the bottom of the distribution is combined with an implicitly higher weighting by the mobility index at the bottom.     

The equity premium in a small open economy and an application to Israel

We show that the preferences suggested by Greenwood, Hercowitz and Huffman (GHH), which are quite common in real business cycle (RBC) models of small open economies, are not suited for reproducing both the business cycle and the equity premium facts of a small open economy. We show that by assuming a moderate degree of a wealth effect on labor supply, together with some limitations on labor supply (in the form of real wage rigidity), we can increase the volatility of the stochastic discount factor (SDF), thereby increasing the equity premium and improving the fit of the business cycle moments. We also find that under the aforementioned assumptions, a shock to the realized return on foreign bonds can help in reproducing the equity premium.     

General equilibrium in economies with adverse selection

We model economies of adverse selection as Arrow–Debreu economies. In the spirit of Prescott and Townsend (Econometrica 52(1), 21–45, 1984a), we identify the consumption set of the individuals with the set of lotteries over net transfers. Thus, prices are linear in lotteries, but they may be non linear in commodity bundles. First, we study a weak equilibrium notion by viewing the economy of adverse selection as a pure exchange economy. The weak equilibrium set is non empty, but some of the allocations may be inefficient, and the equilibria indeterminate. Second, following Prescott and Townsend (Econometrica 52(1), 21–45, 1984a), we introduce an intermediary (firm) supplying feasible and incentive compatible measures. Equilibria are constrained efficient, but the equilibrium set is empty for an open set of economies containing the Rothschild and Stiglitz insurance economies. The research of A. Rustichini was supported by the NSF grant NSF/SES-0136556.     

常德市资源节约型和环境友好型社会发展评价与对策

通过构建"两型社会"综合评价指标体系,采用"两型社会"发展程度评估模型,对常德市2004～2009年"两型社会"发展度、协调度、可持续度和综合发展程度进行了定量评价。结果表明:(1)2004～2009年,常德市"两型社会"发展程度综合指数由0.358 0增至0.666 7,呈现出线性上升的良好态势;(2)截至2009年,社会发展协调度和可持续度指数分别为0.592 9和0.612 5;(3)除可持续度外,发展度、协调度与社会综合发展程度之间显著相关(相关系数分别为0.986、0.988,P<0.05)。可见,常德市2004～2009年期间"两型社会"建设在取得成果的同时,经济发展、能源资源消耗与环境保护之间的矛盾明显存在,经济发展可持续性较低。在今后建设过程中应在加快经济社会结构转型基础上,积极开拓发展低碳经济与循环经济的新思路,强调经济社会的可持续发展。