Natural gas,trade and sustainable growth: empirical evidence from the top gas consumers of the developing world

Natural gas is the key non-renewable source of energy for a low-carbon economy. The research applies heterogeneous panel techniques to investigate the impact of natural gas consumption on economic growth across a panel of top 15 natural gas consumers of the developing world. We establish long-run dynamics with cross-sectional dependence and heterogeneity across the sample countries. The long-run output elasticities suggest that the natural gas consumption and trade variables have significant positive effect on the output in a panel of developing economies. Further, we establish feedback relationship among gas consumption, output and trade in the short-run. Given the significance of natural gas as the low-emission source of energy, we suggest governments and policy advisers of these major natural gas consumers to focus on developing pipeline infrastructure for adequate supply, reforming natural gas sector with a competitive price structure to combat excess demand in individual natural gas market. With trade integration, majority of these countries need to incorporate these initiatives to improve the technologies such as combined cycle power plant technology and value-added chemical production technology to achieve sustainable economic growth.     

R＆D、R＆D溢出、内生增长和内生收敛

根据强调知识与技术创新、知识与技术溢出重要性的当代内生增长理论，本文建立了一个将R＆D和R＆D溢出与资本积累之间、R＆D和R＆D溢出与总产出增长之间直接关联起来的动态模型。面板数据协整检验实证分析结果表明R＆D和R＆D溢出与资本积累之间、R＆D和R＆D溢出与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的正面长期协整关联。进一步的分析表明，R＆D与资本积累之间、R＆D与总产出增长之间分别存在显著的长期双向格兰杰因果关系。由此观知，R＆D乃长期经济增长源泉之所在。另一方面，尽管资本积累或总产出增长并不格兰杰导致R＆D溢出，证据表明R＆D溢出格兰杰导致资本积累和总产出增长。这种由R＆D溢出到资本积累和总产出增长的单向格兰杰因果关系意味着尽管知识与技术的跨国传播并非必然发生。其实为世界经济增长的重要动力。     

Insurance activity,real output,and geopolitical risk: Fresh evidence from BRICS

This paper fills some empirical gaps by evaluating the causal associations among insurance premiums, real output, and geopolitical risk in BRICS (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) from 1985 to 2017. We utilize a newly-developed Granger-causality quantile analysis to assess the causal relationships among the series under consideration in each distribution quantile. Our empirical results reveal unidirectional causality that runs from real output and geopolitical risk to insurance activities in Brazil and South Africa. We also observe bi-directional lower-tail causality among real output, insurance premiums, and geopolitical risk in Russia. Findings also present bi-directional causality among real output, insurance premiums, and geopolitical risk at different quantiles. Knowledge of these causal relationships can prevent governments from conducting a ‘one-size-fits-all’ policy.     

Inter-linkages between competition and stabilisation policies in the banking sector and stock market development in Europe

The banking sector and the stock market in Europe have been adversely impacted by a series of global financial crises over the last two decades. Major financial reforms were implemented to enhance the stability and competition within the banking sector. Measures were also implemented to create a vibrant stock market in Europe to stimulate economic growth in Europe. This study examines the interactions between stock market development, banking competition, and banking stability in European countries from 1996 to 2016. The purpose of the study is to understand the inter-linkages between these variables to ascertain the spillover impact of policy reforms in the banking sector on the stock market and vice-versa. Using a vector error-correction model, the study finds long-run and short-run inter-linkages between banking competition, banking stability, and stock market development in European countries. The study’s most robust result is that banking competition and banking stability stimulate stock market development in the long run. There is also some evidence that healthy competition in the banking sector and stock market development instils greater stability in the banking sector. The results suggest that policy measures put in place to create a vibrant stock market must include elevating banking competition and banking stability, with policymakers being cognizant that causality may be bidirectional.     

Financial market development and trade openness: evidence from emerging economies

International trade is said to be the engine of economic growth. Despite an enormous effort to explain this phenomenon, the relationship between financial market development and trade openness and integration into the world economy is still an enigma. This article investigates the relationship between financial market development and trade openness. To do this, we develop a long-run and short-run model (a bounds testing approach to cointegration) for 18 emerging economies over the period 1980 to 2011. Estimates from all models show that financial market development, including both the stock market and the banking sector, has significant effect on trade openness in both short-run and long-run phenomena in the majority of countries. Despite many similarities among emerging economies, additional evidence suggests that the link between either stock market development or banking sector development with trade openness works via each country’s specific structure.     

Social security expenditure and GDP in OECD countries: A cointegrated panel analysis

Abstract

Using panel data unit root tests and panel cointegration tests, as well as estimation techniques appropriate for heterogeneous panels such as the full modified OLS, this paper re-examines the long-run co-movement and the causal relationship between GDP and social security expenditure in a bivariate model, employing data on 25 OECD countries from 1980 to 2001. Our cointegration test results show strong evidence in favour of the existence of a long-run equilibrium cointegrating relationship between GDP and social security expenditure after allowing for a heterogeneous country effect. Regarding the panel-based error correction model, we find that GDP and social security expenditure lack short-run causality, but reveal the existence of long-run bidirectional causality. This shows that, in the long run, economic growth must be based on a social welfare policy that should be carried out, and economic growth can facilitate contiguous development in a social welfare policy. Lastly, we also provide evidence to support that social security expenditure can affect growth through the savings and human capital accumulation in OECD countries.     

Financial market development,global financial crisis and economic growth: evidence from developing nations

Emerging and frontier markets in Africa have witnessed various economic and financial reforms aimed at integrating the domestic markets into the global financial market to attract investment. Whether these reforms promote high economic growth remains inconclusive. The paper applies the pooled mean group estimation technique to empirically re-investigate the link between financial market development, global financial crisis, and economic growth in selected African economies. The results strongly support our hypotheses that stock market and banking sector development promotes economic growth in the selected countries. Moreover, financial crisis reduce the positive effects of both the stock market and banking sector developments on economic growth. The study suggests that both the banking sector and stock market are important to deliver the long-run economic growth that the African region desired. Moreover, effort should be made to enact policy measures that would ensure development of the stock market which has received inadequate attention.     

Banking sector depth and economic growth nexus: a comparative study between the natural resource-based and the rest of the world’s economies

This paper investigates the relationship between banking sector depth and long-term economic growth in the natural resource-based economies vis-à-vis economies that are not dependent on natural resources. For the empirical investigation, a Generalised Method of Moments estimator for dynamic panel data models is adopted for 194 countries spanning the period 1964–2013. Using different measures of banking sector depth and economic growth, the investigation yields three key findings. First, the banking–growth relationship is non-linear and positive within certain levels of banking sector depth in both country groups. Second, the time lag between the change in the level of banking sector depth and the effect on economic growth is shorter in the natural resource-based countries than in the other countries. Finally, the total effect of banking sector deepening on long-term economic growth is weaker in economies with abundant natural resources than in the rest of the world.     

The effectiveness of monetary policy and output fluctuations: An asymmetric analysis

Previous studies have investigated asymmetries in the effects of monetary policy on the real economic activity by using either vector autoregressive (VAR)-based regime-switching models with smooth transition technique or Gaussian functions to parameterise the dynamic effects of structural shocks on the economy. These kinds of VAR models assume asymmetry as a short-run relationship between the series since the long-run neutrality hypothesis of money states that monetary policy can only affect productive capacity of the economy in the short run, but not in the long run. The recent theoretical literature shows that this hypothesis is not quite right. Thus, this paper examines the extent to which monetary policy has a long-run asymmetric effect on output in a number of Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development countries by using a nonlinear hidden cointegration analysis within a likelihood-based panel framework. The findings indicate that there is a long-run relationship between the real interest rate as an indicator of monetary policy and the growth rate of real output in five countries out of nine under review. This gives support for the view that output has responded asymmetrically to the real interest rate changes. The economic implication of our results is that monetary policy affects positive and negative output fluctuations differently.     

Do oil consumption and economic growth intensify environmental degradation? Evidence from developing economies

The purpose of this article is to empirically investigate the impact of economic growth, oil consumption, financial development, industrialization and trade openness on carbon dioxide (CO₂) emissions, particularly in relation to major oil-consuming developing economies. This study utilizes annual data from 1980 to 2012 on a panel of 18 developing countries. Our empirical analysis employs robust panel cointegration tests and a vector error correction model (VECM) framework. The empirical results of three panel cointegration models suggest that there is a significant long-run equilibrium relationship among economic growth, oil consumption, financial development, industrialization, trade openness and CO₂ emissions. Similarly, results from VECMs show that economic growth, oil consumption and industrialization have a short-run dynamic bidirectional feedback relationship with CO₂ emissions. Long-run (error-correction term) bidirectional causalities are found among CO₂ emissions, economic growth, oil consumption, financial development and trade openness. Our results confirm that economic growth and oil consumption have a significant impact on the CO₂ emissions in developing economies. Hence, the findings of this study have important policy implications for mitigating CO₂ emissions and offering sustainable economic development.     

Economic growth in South-eastern Europe: the role of the banking sector

This article analyses the relationship between banking sector efficiency and economic growth using a panel data analysis of six South-eastern European countries during the period 1995–2005. The analysis is concentrated on the banking sector because other segments of the financial market are underdeveloped in our sample of countries. We measure the qualitative development in the banking sectors by using the margin between lending and deposit interest rates as well as the share of non-performing loans. By applying the panel data method in a growth-type equation setting, we confirm that improvements in banking sector efficiency, measured through the decreasing interest rate spread, exerted a positive influence on the growth rate of the countries in the region.     

The relationship between insurance and economic growth in Europe: a theoretical and empirical analysis

The role of insurance companies, although growing in importance in financial intermediation, has received less attention than bank and stock markets and if so, mainly as a provider of risk transfer in single country or very heterogeneous samples. We investigate both the impact of insurance investment and premiums on GDP growth in Europe. We conduct a cross-country panel data analysis from 1992 to 2005 for 29 European countries. We find a positive impact of life insurance on GDP growth in the EU-15 countries, Switzerland, Norway and Iceland. For the New EU Member States from Central and Eastern Europe, we find a larger impact for liability insurance. Furthermore our findings emphasise the impact of the real interest rate and the level of economic development on the insurance-growth nexus. We argue that the insurance sector needs to be paid more attention in financial sector analysis and macroeconomic policy.

银行业结构与经济增长

本文运用中国28个省区在1985—2002年间的面板数据,考察银行业结构对经济增长的影响。文章对银行业结构的分析着眼于不同规模的银行在银行体系中的相对重要性,度量指标为中小金融机构的市场份额,即四大国有商业银行之外的其他金融机构的贷款余额占各地区全部金融机构贷款余额的比例。为了克服银行业结构可能存在的内生性问题,文章用1994年启动的国有银行商业化改革的政策因素来构造银行业结构的工具变量。运用双向固定效应模型的估计结果显示,在中国现阶段,中小金融机构市场份额的上升对经济增长具有显著的正向影响。     

Financialization and the macroeconomy. Theory and empirical evidence

This paper sheds light on the macroeconomic impact of financialization in the banking sector. We develop a new stock-flow consistent model, which reveals that excessive leverage increases financial fragility, lowers wages, and slows down real sector investment and GDP growth. Using a panel of 29 high income countries, we then construct indicators of banking financialization and investigate the impact of the latter on the wage share, gross capital formation and GDP growth, using a Bayesian structural VAR framework, as well as a set of fixed effect regressions. Our results highlight that financialization has had a detrimental impact on real sector growth. Finally, we discuss the implications of our results to propose reforms to the international financial system.     

Financial liberalization,financial sector development and growth: Evidence from Malaysia

The objective of this paper is to examine whether financial development leads to economic growth or vice versa in the small open economy of Malaysia. Using time series data from 1960 to 2001, we conduct cointegration and causality tests to assess the finance-growth link by taking the real interest rate and financial repression into account. The empirical evidence suggests that financial liberalization, through removing the repressionist policies, has a favorable effect in stimulating financial sector development. Financial depth and economic development are positively related; but contrary to the conventional findings, our results support Robinson's view that output growth leads to higher financial depth in the long-run.     

Energy consumption and economic growth in Asian economies: A more comprehensive analysis using panel data

This paper applies the most recently developed panel unit root, heterogeneous panel cointegration and panel-based error correction models to re-investigate co-movement and the causal relationship between energy consumption and real GDP within a multivariate framework that includes capital stock and labor input for 16 Asian countries during the 1971–2002 period. It employs the production side model (aggregate production function). The empirical results fully support a positive long-run cointegrated relationship between real GDP and energy consumption when the heterogeneous country effect is taken into account. It is found that although economic growth and energy consumption lack short-run causality, there is long-run unidirectional causality running from energy consumption to economic growth. This means that reducing energy consumption does not adversely affect GDP in the short-run but would in the long-run; thus, these countries should adopt a more vigorous energy policy. Furthermore, we broaden the investigation by dividing the sample countries into two cross-regional groups, namely the APEC and ASEAN groups, and even more important results and implications emerge.     

能源消费、经济资本化与节能减排

本文借助面板协整技术考察能源消费与中国经济增长的关系,基于经济资本化视角经验分析中国节能减排战略的现实选择.研究结果显示:(1)能源消费与经济增长存在长期稳定关系,无论长期还是短期,“能源中性”假说均不成立;(2)地区间能源产出弹性差异较大,各地区适宜制定差别化的节能减排目标;(3)为增长而挖掘和重估各项资源经济价值的经济资本化模式不利于节能减排战略的实施.     

Financial Development and Economic Growth: The Tunisian Experience

The aim of this paper is to investigate empirically the question of whether financial development leads to economic growth in a small, developing country like Tunisia. The paper focuses on the causal link between finance and economic growth in order to discriminate between several alternative theoretical hypotheses. The results suggest the existence of a stable long-run relationship between the development of the financial sector and the evolution of per capita real output that is consistent with the view that financial development can be an engine of growth in this country.     

Perfect versus imperfect direct advertising,and market performance

We present a model of economic growth driven by horizontal innovation in which, unlike the existing literature, the final output sector employs a non-specified, non-CES, additive production function. Our motivation in conducting such analysis is based on the recognition that the use of a CES aggregate production function in the final output sector leads to the unrealistic conclusion that the gross markup of price over marginal costs set in the monopolistically-competitive intermediate sector is constant. We derive necessary and sufficient conditions for an equilibrium with perfect competition in the final output market to exist even in the presence of a non-CES technology. These conditions generalize the usual properties of the CES case. We also analyze the long-run relation between economic growth and variable markups.     

A two-sector Kaleckian model of growth and distribution with endogenous productivity dynamics

This study extends a two-sector Kaleckian model of output growth and income distribution by incorporating endogenous labour productivity growth. The model is composed of investment goods and consumption goods production sectors. The impact of a change in wage and profit shares on capacity utilisation and output growth rates at the sectoral and aggregate levels are identified. The study reveals short-run cyclical capacity utilisation rates and productivity growth dynamics. Even if the short-run steady state is stable, the capital accumulation rate in the consumption goods sector must decrease more than that in the investment sector for long-run stability. When simultaneous rises in profit shares in both the sectors affect long-run aggregate economic growth differently at a steady state, the distributional interests between the same class in different sectors may hamper the long-run economic growth. A policy message is that the effect of income distribution on industrial output growth is not always beneficial. These phenomena are specific to two-sector models and cannot be observed when using conventional aggregate growth models.