环境保护税对经济和碳排放影响研究——以江苏省为例

环境保护税的征收,有效减少了污染物排放,同时也会对经济和碳排放产生一定影响。通过构建包含环境保护税模块的CGE模型和江苏省2018年环境社会核算矩阵,模拟分析不同环境保护税税率对江苏省经济发展和碳排放的影响。研究发现:(1)征收环境保护税会给江苏省经济带来负面影响,但影响程度较小,当征收税率上升时,江苏省GDP、出口、省际调出等会下降,而居民和地方政府收入几乎没有变化。(2)环境保护税税率上升时,不仅会增加环境保护税收入,还会减少江苏省碳排放水平。(3)对于大多数行业,环境保护税税率上升会造成行业产出下降,但是对于污染物排放强度较低的行业,行业产出会上升,碳排放会增加。(4)为了更好地完成碳减排目标,建议江苏省可以适度增加环境保护税税率或加征碳税,对于污染物排放浓度较低的行业,可以采取补贴措施鼓励发展;对于污染物排放强度较高的行业,要推动转型升级,降低排放强度。     

征收碳税对中国经济增长与行业发展的影响

征收碳税已成为众多国家推动低碳经济发展的重要措施之一.本文采用1999～2008年中国29个省、直辖市、自治区和部分行业的相关数据,构建面板数据模型,并运用广义最小二乘估计法,对征收碳税与经济增长和行业发展之间的关系进行实证分析,得出以下结论:征收碳税对中国经济增长的影响存在显著的地区差异和行业差异;在较低强度的碳税政策下,碳税对中东部地区大部分省份的经济增长有促进作用,但阻碍中西部地区一些省份的经济增长;征收碳税对我国大多数行业的发展起推动作用,但不利于少数高能耗行业的发展.     

How do market reforms affect China's responsiveness to environmental policy?

A large percentage of total investment in China is allocated by the central government at below-market interest rates in pursuit of non-economic objectives. This has resulted in low rates of return and a high number of non-performing loans, threatening the future health of the Chinese economy. As a result, reform of capital markets is a high priority of the Chinese government. At the same time, the country is implementing various environmental policies to deal with serious pollution issues. In this paper we ask how reforms of the capital market will affect the functioning of a carbon tax. This allows us to assess how China's willingness to join global efforts to reduce carbon emissions is influenced by China's current efforts to reduce investment subsidies. We compare the costs of a carbon tax in a reformed economy with the costs of a carbon tax in the current subsidized economy. We find that in the subsidized economy the tax-interaction effect dampens the effect of a carbon tax resulting in smaller reductions in emissions than what would result in a reformed economy. Importantly, we also find that the effect on economic welfare from a carbon tax is lower in the subsidized economy; in fact, for lower levels of reductions, the carbon tax is actually welfare improving. These results have important implications for an economy undergoing economic transition. The carbon tax rate required to achieve a certain level of emission reductions will be higher in an economy with capital subsidies. However, the welfare implications of the tax indicate that the current system with capital subsidies is highly distorting implying that there is a high efficiency cost for the non-economic objectives the government is pursuing by maintaining this system of subsidies.     

碳税的产业竞争力效应分析

如何在减排的同时更好地促进我国经济发展,已成为一个亟须解决的问题。碳税是减少碳排放的一种重要手段。碳税开征与否的一个主要争论在于:征收碳税是否会影响产业竞争力。在制定碳税政策时,需要考虑碳税实施后对产业竞争力产生影响的可能性及程度,采取相应补偿措施,实现节能减排的目的。     

低碳经济视角下国外财税政策经验借鉴

发达国家促进低碳发展的财税政策实践表明,征收碳税有利于碳的减排并能够获得相应的财政收入,但是,征税的主要目的在于碳减排.对低碳产品的生产和消费提供财政补贴,具有显著的激励效果.对低碳技术的研发提供资助,不仅能够促进碳减排,而且能够促进低碳发展,实现双重盈利.我国实施促进低碳发展的财税政策需要考虑发展阶段、经济水平、经济形势等诸多因素.     

中国电力行业减排政策——基于电力需求函数的实证分析

利用2003—2015年中国的省际面板数据,通过估计电力需求函数模拟碳税的政策效果,为电力行业减排政策的制定提供了参考。结果表明:随着中国经济进入新常态,电价对电力需求的影响减弱,产业结构特别是工业内部结构的调整对电力需求和电力消费结构产生一定影响;由于电力需求对电价变动不敏感,因此碳税的减排效果有限;为实现减排目标,政府需要征收高额碳税,但这在现有的电价水平下较难实施;从减排效果和实施难度两个方面来看,当前暂不开征碳税的减排政策具有一定合理性;与碳税相比,加快供给侧结构性改革、降低火力发电比重,能够更有效地实现减排目标;现阶段政府应将调整电源结构作为节能减排工作的重点。     

Output‐based rebating of carbon taxes in a neighbour's backyard: Competitiveness,leakage and welfare

We investigate how, in an open economy, carbon taxes combined with output‐based rebating (OBR) perform in interaction with the carbon policies of a large neighbouring trading partner. Analytical results suggest that, whether the purpose of the OBR policy is to compensate firms for carbon tax burdens or to maximize welfare (accounting for global emission reductions), the OBR rate should be positive in policy‐relevant cases. Numerical simulations for Canada, with the US as the neighbouring trading partner, indicate that the impact of US policies on the OBR rate will depend crucially on the purpose of the Canadian OBR policies. If, for a given US carbon policy, Canada's aim is to restore the competitiveness of domestic emission‐intensive and trade‐exposed (EITE) firms to the same level as before the introduction of its own carbon taxation, we find that the necessary domestic OBR rates will be insensitive to the foreign carbon policies. However, if not only the Canadian carbon tax but also an equally high US tax is introduced, compensatory Canadian OBR rates will be up to 50% lower, depending on the sector and on US OBR policy. If the policy objective is to increase economy‐wide allocative efficiency (welfare) of Canadian policies by accounting for carbon leakage, the US policies will have only a minor downward pressure on desirable OBR rates in Canada. Practical choices of OBR rates hardly affect overall domestic economic performance; thus, output‐based rebating qualifies as an instrument for compensating EITE industries without a large sacrifice in terms of economy‐wide allocative efficiency.     

碳税征收对经济增长与产业结构影响的实证分析

征收碳税已成为众多国家推动低碳经济发展的重要经济措施之一。为了检验征收碳税对中国经济增长可能造成的影响,对征收碳税与经济增长的关系进行实证分析,得出以下结论:征收碳税对经济增长的影响存在显著的地域和行业差异,在较低强度的碳税政策下,碳税对中东部地区大部分省份的经济增长有促进作用,但阻碍中西部地区一些省份的经济增长;同时,征收碳税对大多数行业的发展起推动作用,却不利于少数行业的发展。     

低碳经济视角下的长三角地区发展策略研究

目前长三角地区的高碳发展模式受到越来越多的制约,在此背景下,发展低碳经济是长三角地区实现可持续发展的必然选择。本文从长三角地区发展低碳经济的机遇与挑战出发,选择碳税作为该地区发展低碳经济的切入点,应用博弈论方法,研究政府、企业、个体之间的矛盾,对三者在征收碳税情形下的策略进行分析,求解了非对称信息下各参与主体的纳什均衡,在此基础上提出了贯彻碳税政策的建议。本文的研究有助于从微观角度理解低碳经济下政府、企业、个体的行为,对于政府如何发展低碳经济具有借鉴意义。     

On the impacts of carbon tax and technological progress on China

Using a dynamic national computable general equilibrium model, we investigate the impact of carbon tax and energy efficiency improvement on the economy and environment of China. The Chinese social account matrix is presented based upon the latest input–output table (2012 IO table) and other data. The business as usual (BAU) scenario is designed according to several forecasts about China by 2030, followed by six policy scenarios, including different levels of carbon tax and technological progress as well as their combinations. The results show that carbon tax will frustrate the overall economic growth slightly. The CO₂ emission will be 13.81% lower in 2030 compared to BAU case if the carbon tax scheme is carried out at a rate of 200 RMB/ton of CO₂. Technological progress will stimulate the economic growth, enrich the household and government income, increase total investment and make most sectors prosperous with the exception of energy industries.     

中国低碳经济发展的政策体系构建

低碳发展的多因素限制和全球的低碳激烈竞争已经对中国的发展构成严峻挑战。低碳经济的发展必须依赖全面的制度体系安排,但是目前中国低碳经济的政策资源配置不合理。在提出政策体系构建原则和政策选取方法的基础上,以国家低碳战略为依据,将主要政策分为法律、财政、税收、金融、科技、能源等10个方面,并围绕主要政策建立了政策体系框架,构建了低碳经济的多层次政策体系。     

How may a carbon tax transform Australian electricity industry? A CGE analysis

The carbon tax policy proposed by Australian government has triggered deep concerns about the high electricity prices facing households and the sustainability of electricity industry. By employing a computable general equilibrium (CGE) model and an environmentally extended Social Accounting Matrix (SAM), this article simulates the effect of Australian carbon tax on the electricity industry. The modelling results show that the wholesale electricity prices indeed increase by about 90%, but the retailer prices only increase by 25%. The coal-fired electricity generators will reduce their output by 8% (for black-coal) to 18% (for brown-coal), but the profitability of the industry will drop dramatically. On the other hand, generators using oil, gas or renewable resources, will increase their output significantly and enjoy a handsome profit. Through the price, cost and profitability mechanisms, the carbon tax will transfer the Australian electricity generation to a low emission industry in the long term.     

Carbon Taxes and Joint Implementation. An Applied General Equilibrium Analysis for Germany and India

Germany has committed itself toreducing its carbon emissions by 25 percent in2005 as compared to 1990 emission levels. Toachieve this goal, the government has recentlylaunched an environmental tax reform whichentails a continuous increase in energy taxesin conjunction with a revenue-neutral cut innon-wage labor costs. This policy is supposedto yield a double dividend, reducing both, theproblem of global warming and high unemploymentrates. In addition to domestic actions,international treaties on climate protectionallow for the supplementary use of flexibleinstruments to exploit cheaper emissionreduction possibilities elsewhere. One concreteoption for Germany would be to enter jointimplementation (JI) with developing countriessuch as India where Germany pays emissionreduction abroad rather than meeting itsreduction target solely by domestic action. Inthis paper, we investigate whether anenvironmental tax reform cum JI providesemployment and overall efficiency gains ascompared to an environmental tax reformstand-alone. We address this question in theframework of a large-scale general equilibriummodel for Germany and India where Germany mayundertake JI with the Indian electricitysector. Our main finding is that JI offsetslargely the adverse effects of carbon emissionconstraints on the German economy. JIsignificantly lowers the level of carbon taxesand thus reduces the total costs of abatementas well as negative effects on labor demand. Inaddition, JI triggers direct investment demandfor energy efficient power plants produced inGermany. This provides positive employmenteffects and additional income for Germany. ForIndia, joint implementation equips itselectricity industry with scarce capital goodsleading to a more efficient power productionwith lower electricity prices for the economyand substantial welfare gains.     

Pollution, Capital Mobility and Tax Policies with Unemployment

In this paper we highlight aspects related to the links among unemployment, international capital mobility, and tax policies in a small open developing economy. Without international capital mobility, the joint optimal trade and environmental policies require a zero tariff and an emission tax lower than the Pigouvian tax. With international capital mobility and a capital tax (subsidy), the optimal emission tax rate is smaller (larger) compared to the rate when capital is untaxed. When both the emission tax and the capital tax/subsidy are jointly chosen optimally, then the optimal policy on capital is a lower subsidy, or even a tax, compared to the standard capital subsidy of the no pollution case.     

碳税政策效应理论研究评述

本文对国外有关碳税政策效应的理论研究进行了系统的回顾和梳理,分析了碳税的环境效应、经济效应、分配效应和福利效应,并比较了碳税与能源税、排污许可证交易制度在碳减排效果和政策成本方面的区别。本文分析表明,中国要实施碳税应充分借鉴国际经验和现有研究成果,并要结合我国经济社会的发展状况,作出进一步的理论分析与实证研究。碳税政策的制定,既要考虑自身的多重效应,又要仔细分析它与其他政策工具之间的相互影响。     

欧盟碳税政策的经验与启示

随着全球气候变化带来的恶劣影响进一步加剧,减缓和适应气候变化已成为世界各国所关心的重要议题。越来越多的国家采取了各种温室气体减排措施,征收碳税就是其中之一。目前欧盟一些国家已实行碳税,并取得了一定的效果。以芬兰、丹麦、瑞典和英国为例,对这四个国家的碳税情况进行比较分析,以期对中国有所启示。     

瑞典碳税对产业结构水平影响的实证分析

为了降低二氧化碳的排放水平，实现可持续发展，一些国家以碳税作为发展低碳经济的重要手段。碳税是从多方面促进低碳经济的，对产业结构的升级和转型至关重要。在分析瑞典碳税政策、测算瑞典产业结构水平的基础上，本文对瑞典碳税与产业结构水平的关系进行实证分析。研究结果表明，瑞典碳税是提高瑞典产业结构水平的重要因素。据此，本文提出了关于我国开征碳税的建议。     

燃油税改革对我国节能减排影响的动态CGE研究

2009年1月1日起我国实施成品油税费改革。燃油税是一种经济信号,其变动会引起一个经济体全方位的反应。采用动态CGE模型——MCHUGE模型对燃油税改革对我国节能减排的影响进行仿真研究。研究表明,燃油税改革在短期和长期均能显著降低中国的能源强度,其原因是燃油税改革优化了中国经济的产业结构,第二产业尤其是重工业在GDP中所占比重下降,减少了总体的能源消费。     

Fiscal federalism approach for controlling global environmental pollution

This paper finds that optimal international carbon taxes are country specific and we can decompose a tax on a domestically produced carbon-intensive commodity into a revenue tax, a tax to control local atmospheric pollution and an international carbon tax. It shows that an institutional arrangement for the world economy similar to the fiscal federalism in the federal countries can be useful to internalize the global externalities of atmospheric pollution.     

浙江省低碳发展水平测度和比较分析

低碳经济,以低排放为主要特征。浙江省的经济快速发展极度依赖于传统能源的消费,而其消费带来了巨大的碳排放,为浙江省发展低碳经济带来了巨大的障碍。文章基于减排角度,在分析浙江省能源消费和碳排放现状的基础上,运用人均碳排放、碳生产率和碳能源排放系数三类指标衡量了浙江省低碳发展水平及在全国所处的地位,并从减排角度提出了提高浙江省低碳发展水平的相关策略。