Official bailouts,moral hazard and the ‘speciality’ of the international interbank market

We analyse the evolution of emerging market loan spreads at a more disaggregated level than other studies on the subject, providing statistical support to the assumption of the ‘speciality’ of the international interbank market, to the extent that the pricing of interbank credit is insensitive to the nature (public or private) of the borrower. In sharp contrast, the public or private nature of other borrowers, such as corporates or financial firms, causes significant differences in spreads. These results could be interpreted as evidence of the possible role played by implicit government guarantees in the international interbank market, which lower the incentives for participants to monitor counterpart risk very closely. Furthermore, the specificity of banks is witnessed by the fact that only spreads on loans to emerging market banks have clearly declined following the 1995 Mexican bailout, whereas evidence on the pricing of lending to corporates and financial firms is more ambiguous. Although, on the one hand, this might support the view that financial assistance from the IMF gives rise to moral hazard, on the other hand, contrary to expectations, spreads on loans to Asian banks, among the major candidates in the current policy debate on moral hazard, have been unaffected by the IMF's response to Mexico's crisis.     

信用风险缓释工具对商业银行贷款定价之影响

本文基于我国上市公司的银行贷款数据,就信用风险缓释工具对商业银行贷款定价的影响进行了多视角的研究,发现只有抵押贷款和非抵押贷款的风险溢价间存在显著差异,且信用贷款和保证贷款的风险溢价显著小于抵押贷款。我国商业银行似乎对更高质量的风险缓释工具执行了较高的贷款利率,表明信用风险缓释工具在其贷款风险定价中未能得到应有的体现与反映。我国商业银行对抵押等工具的风险缓释作用的漠视,是与其特定的风险定价与激励机制有关;同时,基于供应链小企业融资中的过程控制等结构化设计等,讨论了如何降低抵押贷款风险溢价的方式和方法。     

Lending technologies,lending specialization,and minority access to small-business loans

We investigate minority access to small-business loans using a probit model of loan application denial that recognizes two loan types (line-of-credit loans and non-line-of-credit loans) made by two lender types (commercial banks and nonbank financial institutions). We estimate our model on data from the 1998 Survey of Small Business Finances. We find evidence consistent with minority equal access to bank credit lines and nonbank non-line-of-credit loans in highly competitive loan markets; in less competitive markets we find evidence consistent with unequal access to these loans. We also find evidence consistent with unequal minority access to bank non-line-of-credit loans, regardless of loan market competitiveness. Our findings differ from previous research which treats small-business loans as a homogenous product and finds evidence consistent with unequal minority access to small-business loans generally. We argue that the existence of multiple small-business lending technologies and loan specialization by lenders account for our findings and demonstrate the need to treat small-business loans as a heterogeneous product when investigating equal access to small-business credit.     

SBA default rates : Selection bias and credit deterioration

This study estimates the effects of changes in the money and capital markets on small business loan failure rates. It develops a lagged model of the relationship between term structure and risk premium variables and the loan failure rates of the Small Business Administration (SBA). Bank credit availability to small firms is shown to be the key factor in relating changes in economic conditions to changes in the SBA loan failure rates. As bank credit availability changes over an economic cycle, there is a movement of the least risky small firms into and out of the population from which the SBA grants and guarantees loans.     

有违约风险贷款担保价值研究

在发达国家政府是贷款担保的主要担保人,对贷款担保定价研究的重要假设是担保人没有违约风险。在中国,绝大多数的贷款担保人有违约风险。本文研究了担保人有违约风险情况下提供担保和相互担保的财务特征和定价,对比分析了提供担保和相互担保行为对贷款担保人和银行价值的影响。研究表明,有违约风险担保的价值随着担保人公司价值和借款额的增大而增大,随着借款公司价值的增大而减少;银行的损失随着借款额的增大而增大,随着担保人公司价值和借款人公司价值的增大而减少。银行提供贷款时允许企业相互担保等于潜在为相互担保企业提供了免费的部分担保,随着借款人风险的增大,相互担保条件下的银行或有损失急剧增大,相互担保对于银行的价值有显著的负面影响。     

An analysis of bank stock price reaction to distressed borrowers: Taiwanese evidence

This paper investigates the impacts of a borrower's reorganisation plan confirmation on its lending bank's shareholder wealth. Earlier empirical research is completely silent on this research area. Using data from a sample of Taiwanese reorganised firms, this paper shows that the market discriminates among lending banks by making inferences based on their exposure to their reorganised borrower; that is, the lead lending banks experience negative wealth effects, whereas the second lending banks experience positive effects. The results also show that wealth effects are negatively related to loan collateral and rates charged on the loans as well as on corporate leverage. In addition, the reliability and robustness of the model are demonstrated by the receiver operating characteristic curves.     

Syndicated loans in emerging markets

There has been a considerable expansion of the volume of syndicated loans in emerging markets in the recent years. We provide the first analysis of the determinants of the decision of banks to syndicate a loan on a sample of loan facilities from 50 emerging countries. We show the significant role of loan characteristics and of financial development, banking regulation, and legal institutions, in the decision to syndicate a loan. We support the efforts of authorities to increase banking competition and efficiency, and to implement binding banking regulation on capital requirement to promote the expansion of syndicated loans.     

Determinants of the Low SME Loan Approval Rate in Croatia

The paper proposes a new methodological framework for investigating consistency in loan assessment decisions and determinants of loan approval based on structural equation modelling and covariance structure analysis. We focus on a governmental SME loan programme in Croatia and investigate possible reasons for low loan approval rate that occurred in spite of interest rates subsidisation and sufficient supply of the loan funds. The novelty of the methodological approach taken is that it enables simultaneous investigation of the determinants of the loan approval and testing for consistency in the loan assessment decisions, which need not be assumed. We test several hypotheses about consistency in the loan approval decisions and lending preferences in Croatia. The empirical findings reject overall consistency of criteria but indicate a preference toward smaller loans. Among all SME loan requests, banks preferred smaller firms that requested smaller loans. The results suggest that individual banks differ in their criteria and in their loan-size preferences and that there is no positive correlation between the bank’s size and its loan-size preference.     

Banking Reforms for the 21st Century: A Perfectly Stable Banking System Based on Financial Innovations*

Although bank loans themselves are somewhat illiquid because of private information, most of their cashflows are not. Recent financial innovations allow commercial loans to be liquefied via credit derivatives and actual and synthetic securitizations. The loan originating bank holds the remaining illiquid equity tranche containing the concentrated credit risk, private information rent and the ‘excess spread’ that incentivize the bank to continue to monitor and service the loans. Empirically, we find that the average size of the equity tranche is about 3% for the representative commercial loan portfolios in our sample. The liquefaction of bank loans makes possible a banking system that restricts the guaranteed accounts to be backed by 100% reserves and the non‐guaranteed deposits to be backed by liquid securitized loan tranches, while retaining the deposit‐lending synergy. Such a system is perfectly safe without deposit insurance and it renders banks bankruptcy‐remote without sacrificing a bank's traditional role as a financial intermediary.     

中小企业融资中的自有资金信贷机制

银行贷款收益取决于贷款利率和贷款风险两个因素。在贷款利率受到管制时,理性的银行为了实现期望利润最大化,要求企业提供足够抵押来规避贷款风险。我国中小企业由于自身特征及所处信贷环境的原因,银行向其贷款风险大,且得不到足够抵押品,也没有第三方提供担保,这就导致中小企业贷款难现象。因此,我国商业银行应该灵活运用抵押、担保、关系贷款和自有资金多种手段,积极构建中小企业的多层次信贷机制体系。     

Small Business Borrowing and the Bifurcated Economy: Why Quantitative Easing Has Been Ineffective for Small Business

In the early years following the financial collapse, federal officials and others believed that banks were not making loans to creditworthy small firms, who have accounted for most of the job creation in the United States in recent decades. Acting on this belief, a number of programs were created to increase bank lending to small firms. Overall, however, the data collected since the 2007/8 financial crisis suggest that the explanation for slow loan growth in the small business sector is not a result of supply constraints but rather a result of anemic loan demand among small firms. Thus, recent programs intended to increase small business borrowing through easing credit supply were doomed to fail. The weak demand for credit among small firms is representative of the sluggish performance of the small business economy postrecession, a marked contrast to the robust performance of larger firms and a reflection of a bifurcated economy.     

我国商业银行贷款定价问题的探讨

在与美国比较的基础上,分析我国商业银行贷款资产的特征和银行经营中存在的问题;将客户盈利程度分析法与基于银行资产负债隐含期权的风险溢价测算方法相结合,提出了基于客户盈利程度分析的贷款风险定价方法,并通过实例对该方法进行了说明。     

The impact of trade and financial openness on bank loan pricing: Evidence from emerging economies

In this paper, we examine the impact of trade and financial openness on bank loan pricing. Using data from 35 emerging economies, we first document that higher trade and financial openness lower interest rates on gross bank loans using country-specific measures for trade and financial openness. We then confirm our findings using firm-specific measures for trade and financial openness and individual loan spread. Exploiting the accession to World Trade Organization (WTO) as a quasi-natural experiment, we observe loan interest rates declined in countries after joining the WTO. Overall, we imply that openness is beneficial for financial development in emerging economies.     

Excess Risk Premia of Asian Banks

This paper develops a framework for gauging the risks of emerging market banks by using stock market data. Employing a multifactor asset pricing model that allows for time‐varying risk premia, we find the presence of large excess risk premia on Asian bank stocks, especially in those markets affected by the Asian financial crisis. We find that the excess risk premia appear to be negatively related to the degree of economic freedom of a country but positively related to its corruption level. Thus, our findings are consistent with the view that crony capitalism in Asia may have distorted the market mechanism or the systematic risk exposure of banks. This suggests that the excess risk premium provides useful information on risk exposure for opaque banking systems where quality accounting information is not available.     

Loan Officer Turnover and Credit Availability for Small Firms

This paper presents empirical evidence on the role loan officers play in facilitating small firm access to commercial bank loans. If loan officers use soft information (for example, assessments of character, information from customers and suppliers) to make lending decisions that would not otherwise be made on the basis of hard information (for example, tax returns or financial statements), then, frequent turnover in loan officers should be associated with an adverse effect on credit availability. This relationship is confirmed empirically using survey data of U.S. small firms in 1995 and 2001, where loan officer turnover is positively related to the turndown rate on the most recent loan application. Although loan officer turnover could be influenced by the turndown rate (for example, an owner changes banks and gets a new loan officer as a result of a recent turndown), its negative effect on credit availability persists under several different tests.     

Lending to Small and Medium-Sized Firms: Is There an East-West Gap in Germany?

The financing of small and medium-sized firms is important for the catching-up of the East German to the West German economy since reunification. We explore whether it is restricted by unfavorable bank loan terms, using bank-survey data on lending decisions to small and medium-sized firms. A comparison of the terms of lending between the former East German and West German states yields a lending gap given by higher loan prices and collateral requirements in East Germany. This gap can be explained by differences in credit risks and lending strategies of banks.     

Bank Loan Announcements and Borrower Stock Returns: Does Bank Origin Matter?

Banks play a special role as providers of informative signals about the quality and value of their borrowers. Such signals, however, may have a quality of their own as the banks' selection and monitoring abilities may differ. Using an event study methodology, we study the importance of the geographical origin and organization of the banks for the investors' assessments of firms' credit quality and economic worth following loan announcements. Our sample comprises 986 announcements of bank loans to US firms over the period of 1980–2003. We find that investors react positively to such announcements if the loans are made by foreign or local banks, but not if the loans are made by banks that are located outside the firm's headquarters state. Investor reaction is, in fact, the largest when the bank is foreign. Our evidence suggest that investors value relationships with more competitive and skilled banks rather than banks that have easier access to private information about the firms. These results are applicable also to the European markets where regulatory and economic borders do not coincide and bank identities and reputation seem to matter a great deal.     

Bank Work Experience Versus Political Connections: Which Matters for Bank Loan Financing?

This paper examines how bank lending decisions are affected either by executives’ connections with banks, through their former banking experience, or by their political connections with governments, using a sample of bank loans granted to Chinese listed non‐state‐owned enterprises (SOEs) from 2003 to 2010. We find that bank loans are more closely related to profitability for firms with bank connections, while firms’ political connections weaken this relationship. We further find that the influence of bank connections is more significant for firms from less supported industries or less developed regions. Furthermore, firms with bank connections are less likely to become financially distressed after the initiation of their bank loans and experience higher future stock returns, while firms with political connections experience the opposite outcome. Overall, our results indicate that in the context of a relationship‐based economy like China, firms’ connections with banks create value by alleviating information asymmetry and improving banks’ lending decisions, while political connections result in capital misallocation and subsequent deterioration in performance.     

Personal Guarantees,Loan Pricing,and Lending Structure in Finnish Small Business Loans

This study analyzes the role of personal guarantees and collateral in the context of two different lending structures: one transaction and the other relationship based. The Finnish bank data, which were uniquely accessible for the study, enabled an exploration of credit files with specific details of the characteristics of the lending relationship during the period 1995–2001. According to the empirical results, the use of personal guarantees is an indication of transaction‐based lending. Personal guarantees seem to increase the loan premium in transaction‐based loans more than in relationship‐based loans. Close ties between a bank and a firm seem to be a desirable basis for small and medium‐sized enterprise bank lending.     

Macroprudential policy efficiency in Russia: Assessment for the uncollateralized consumer loans

We use data regarding Russian banks during the 2015–2019 period to evaluate the effectiveness of the macroprudential measures in curbing the booming consumer lending segment. We find that the measures are successful in reducing overall loan portfolio riskiness and capital cushion accumulation by banks. In the short run of up to 1–2 quarters after the announcement date of a measure, banks tend to reduce both new loan volumes and the average consumer loan portfolio growth rate. Such reductions are more typical with the smallest market players. However, in the longer time horizon of up to one year from the application date of a measure, we observe an increase in average credit growth rates. Such findings correspond to the experience of emerging markets, such as Argentina, Colombia and Thailand. In general, we believe that the observed credit growth that occurs after measure implementation is less than it could have been without the measures in place. We also expect the observed lending growth rate to bring less financial instability risks and reflect the potential for natural loan extension in Russia. The novelty of this paper is in its distinction between macroprudential measurement scales when they produce intended and unintended consequences.