Spillovers and connectedness among BRICS stock markets,cryptocurrencies, and uncertainty: Evidence from the quantile vector autoregression network

In this study we advance the understanding of the spillovers and connectedness network among conventional and Islamic BRICS stock markets, cryptos (Bitcoin, Ethereum, Litecoin) and various global uncertainties, using a quantile vector autoregression method and daily data covering the period October 8, 2016, to May 28, 2021. Further, the study uses a network and sensitivity analyses to assess the nexus, examines risk causes, and the transfer paths in these markets under bearish, normal, and bullish markets. The evidence offers major findings. First, the overall static and dynamic connectedness is very high and more intense at extreme events. Second, the network connectedness structure shows that the markets have played both roles: net transmitters and receivers of shocks under several market states. Finally, the sensitivity to quantiles analysis shows switching behavior of net transfer spillovers over the quantiles. This could be beneficial to investors aiming at optimizing hedging strategies. Policymakers should consider carefully the overall network connectedness in the market system and formulate appropriate policies to conceive stock market price sensitivity.     

Spillover Effects among European,the US and Moroccan Stock Markets before and after the Global Financial Crisis

ABSTRACT

This paper assesses return and volatility spillovers among stock markets in Morocco, the US, UK, France and Germany represented respectively by MASI, S&P 500, FTSE 100, CAC 40 and DAX 30 indices, both before and after the global financial crisis (GFC) of 2008. The daily frequency data cover the period from January 2nd, 2002 to June 30th, 2016. Using the Diebold and Yilmaz approach, the results show varying financial connectedness between the Moroccan and the above mentioned developed stock markets. In fact, the significant increase of spillover index during the post-financial crisis period demonstrates that the US and European stock markets were the most affected. On the other hand, despite a relative increase of spillover effects coming from the US and German equity markets, our results show decline in the total net spillovers experienced by the Moroccan market after the recent financial crisis. These findings may provide some useful information to support decision-making and trading strategies for international investors.     

Dual liability and the moderating effect of corporate social responsibility–Evidence from Belt&Road investment of Chinese firms

Our examination of 796 Chinese firms that invested in the Belt&Road (B&R) region from 2008 to 2015 shows that Chinese firms often encounter liability of foreignness (LOF) and liability of origin (LOR). Our empirical results reveal that larger institutional distance is related to significant performance decrease, which evidences liability of foreignness for Chinese multinationals. Moreover, Chinese firms with concentrated ownership see their financial performance adversely affected after the B&R initiative, which further validates the argument for liability of origin. We found that firms' Corporate Social Responsibility performance (CSR) has a significant, positive “institutional moderating” effect, that is buffering conflicts between Chinese firms and local stakeholders, and projecting a favorable institutional image to mitigate Chinese multinationals' dual liabilities in the B&R region. Firms with better Corporate Social Responsibility (CSR) performance are more likely to avoid political risk. CSR has been a buffering and bridge mechanism in government inefficiency, lower regulatory quality, lower rule of law and less control of corruption and reducing rent seeking behavior.Therefore, investment in CSR and more inclusive ownership schemes may assist Chinese firms' long survival across the B&R region.     

The Effect of 2008 Crisis on the Volatility Spillovers among Six Major Markets

The scope of this paper is to determine whether global stock markets function differently under conditions of economic crisis by measuring volatility spillovers between six major markets, namely the US, the UK, Germany, Spain, Turkey, and Greece. We examine the volatility spillover effects of the 2008 US financial crisis to these six major markets using daily stock returns from January 2003 to December 2014, before, during, and after the 2008 financial crisis. We combine the Diebold and Yilmaz methodology with the stochastic volatility model of Taylor implemented through the sequential Efficient Importance Sampling method of Richard and Zhang to obtain variance decompositions derived from an estimated vector autoregressive model. The empirical findings suggest that stock markets tend to show increased volatility spillovers during the crisis period, thus resulting in lesser diversification benefits for investors.     

Systemic risk in global volatility spillover networks: Evidence from option-implied volatility indices

With option-implied volatility indices, we identify networks of global volatility spillovers and examine time-varying systemic risk across global financial markets. The U.S. stock market is the center of the network and plays a dominant role in the spread of volatility spillover to other markets. The global systemic risks have intensified since the Federal Reserve exited from quantitative easing, hiked interest rate, and shrank its balance sheet. We further show that the U.S. monetary tightening is an important catalyst for the intensifying global systemic risk. Our findings highlight the pernicious effects of monetary tightening after an era of cheap money.     

Extreme dependence and risk spillovers between oil and Islamic stock markets

This paper examines the downside and upside risk spillovers and dependence structure between five Islamic stock markets (the Islamic Market World index, Islamic indices of USA, UK, Japan and the Islamic Financials sector index) which are of paramount importance for faith-oriented investors and particpants in the oil market. The results underscore the presence of time-varying lower tail dependence between the oil and Islamic stock markets. Furthermore, we provide supportive evidence of asymmetric down- and up-side risk spillovers from oil to the Islamic stock markets and vice versa. Finally, these asymmetric risk spillovers have significantly increased after the global financial crisis.     

Volatility Spillovers and the Risk-Return Relation Between Stock and Foreign Exchange Markets in Brazil

We examine the evidence of mean and volatility spillovers between stock and foreign exchange markets in Brazil with multivariate GARCH models and nonlinear Granger causality tests. We also use a multivariate GARCH-in-mean model to assess the relationship between risk and return in these markets. The results indicate that the stock market leads the foreign exchange market in price formation and that nonlinear Granger causalities from the exchange market to the stock market do occur. Part of these nonlinear causalities are explained by volatility spillovers. We show that exchange rate volatility affects not only stock market volatility but also stock returns.     

The economic value of volatility transmission between the stock and bond markets

This study has two main objectives. Firstly, volatility transmission between stocks and bonds in European markets is studied using the two most important financial assets in these fields: the DJ Euro Stoxx 50 index futures contract and the Euro Bund futures contract. Secondly, a trading rule for the major European futures contracts is designed. This rule can be applied to different markets and assets to analyze the economic significance of volatility spillovers observed between them. The results indicate that volatility spillovers take place in both directions and that the stock‐bond trading rule offers very profitable returns after transaction costs. These results have important implications for portfolio management and asset allocation. © 2008 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 28:1066–1094, 2008     

The relationship between currency carry trades and U.S. stocks

The article examines the relationship between daily returns of currency carry trades and U.S. stocks from January 1995 through September 2010. Carry trade and stock returns are highly correlated with no Granger‐causality in either direction. An EGARCH model shows that significant volatility spillovers flow from the stock market to the carry‐trade market, but not vice versa. The markets are more correlated in periods of high volatility. Volatilities in both markets also increase more with negative innovations than positive innovations. A sectoral analysis of the index suggests that volatilities of cyclical stocks have more impact than noncyclical stocks on carry trades.     

Why is there no momentum in the Taiwan stock market?

Momentum strategies usually do not produce significant profits in emerging stock markets. Chui, Titman, and Wei [Chui, A. C. W., Titman, S., & Wei, K. C. J. (2000). Momentum, legal systems and ownership structure: An analysis of Asian stock markets. Working paper, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Chui, A. C. W., Titman, S., & Wei, K. C. J. (2006). Individualism and momentum around the World. Working Paper, Hong Kong Polytechnic University] argue that the lack of profitability is due to cultural differences. In this paper, we look at one of the largest emerging markets, the Taiwan stock market. We find that DOWN markets occur more frequently and momentum profits are more negative following DOWN markets in Taiwan than in the US. Taken together, our findings suggest that the lack of profits from momentum strategies in emerging markets may be due more to the state-dependence of momentum discovered by Cooper, Gutierrez, and Hameed [Cooper, M. J., Gutierrez R. C., & Hameed, A. (2004). Market states and momentum. Journal of Finance, 59, 1345–1365] rather than to cultural differences.     

Price discovery and volatility spillovers in the DJIA index and futures markets

The Dow Jones Industrial Average (DJIA) is the most widely quoted stock index worldwide. This article examines the minute-by-minute price discovery process and volatility spillovers between the DJIA index and the index futures recently launched by the CBOT. The Hasbrouck (1995) cointegrating model suggests that most of the price discovery takes place at the futures market. However, by examining the volatility spillovers between the markets based on a bivariate EGARCH model, a significant bidirectional information flow is found. That is, innovations in one market can predict the future volatility in another market, but the futures market volatility-spillovers to the stock market more than vice versa. Both markets also exhibit asymmetric volatility effects, with bad news having a greater impact on volatility than good news. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 911–930, 1999     

Intertemporal volatility and price interactions between Australian and Japanese spot and futures stock index markets

Previous studies have examined causality within and between different spot and futures markets with a motivation to discover market comovements, price leadership effects, and, more recently, volatility spillovers across markets. However, the empirical framework within which this is accomplished tends not to analyze explicitly foreign spillover effects upon a spot–futures relationship, which may significantly alter the equilibrium between these markets. This will then have a direct impact upon the estimation of dynamic risk adjustments that occur from the interaction between these markets. This article develops a quadvariate simultaneous-equation EC-ARCH model with an emphasis on volatility spillovers as a better alternative methodology to evaluate these relationships from a different perspective. This model is applied to examine the interaction between the Australian and Japanese spot and futures stock index markets, which allows for an Australian or Japanese futures trader to analyze the impact of foreign cash and futures markets, as well as the local cash market, on the local futures market in a single coherent framework. This type of analysis is not possible using previous paradigms, because they allow the trader only to examine the impact of local cash and foreign futures markets in separate settings. © 1999 John Wiley & Sons, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 19: 523–540, 1999     

Asymmetric extreme risk spillovers between the Chinese stock market and index futures market: An MV-CAViaR based intraday CoVaR approach

This paper proposes a predictive CoVaR measure to analyze asynchronous risk spillovers between the Chinese stock and futures market. We jointly model the intraday CoVaR dynamics using an extended MV-CAViaR model. The results show the presence of asymmetric spillovers under different market states, different trading rules, and different confidence levels. Specifically, there exist significant downside spillovers and insignificant upside spillovers. Moreover, the futures (stock) market becomes dominant in risk transmission during bearish (bullish) market periods. Furthermore, high margin requirements would weaken the spillover effects of the futures market, but it would also strengthen the spillover effects of the stock market.     

FDI、国外专利申请与中国各地区的技术进步——国际技术扩散视角的实证分析

技术进步是国家经济发展的核心竞争力,技术水平的提高主要依赖于该国的国内研发和对国外研发溢出的吸收。因此对于研发资金有限的发展中国家和地区,国外研发溢出对加快自身技术进步尤其重要。在CH模型基础上,我们采用LP法将国外研发溢出量化,并使用面板数据考察了输入型FDI和国外专利申请在中国各地区所带来的国外研发溢出效应,实证结果表明了国外研发溢出效应的存在,但在各地区间存在差异;国内研发仍然是各地区技术进步的主要来源。     

Half-day trading and spillovers

This paper investigates the linkage of returns and volatilities between the United States and Chinese stock markets from January 2010 to March 2020. We use the dynamic conditional correlation (DCC) and asymmetric Baba–Engle–Kraft–Kroner (BEKK) GARCH models to calculate the time-varying correlations of these two markets and examine the return and volatility spillover effects between these two markets. The empirical results show that there are only unidirectional return spillovers from the U.S. stock market to the Chinese stock market. The U.S. stock market has a consistently positive spillover to China’s next day’s morning trading, but its impact on China’s next day’s afternoon trading appears to be insignificant. This finding implies that information in the U.S. stock market impacts the performance of the Chinese stock market differently in distinct semi-day trading. Moreover, with respect to the volatility, there are significant bidirectional spillover effects between these two markets.     

Cooperative and non-cooperative R&D and trade costs

We examine the effect of trade liberalization on the level and mode of R&D in an international duopoly setting. Firms have the choice to invest in R&D either independently or cooperatively. A reduction in trade cost increases R&D irrespective of the mode of R&D. However, an increase in spillovers has ambiguous effects on R&D. More precisely, we find that an increase in spillover leads to higher R&D activity under cooperation but lower R&D activity under non-cooperation. Concerning cooperation versus non-cooperation, we find that firms prefer cooperation only if trade costs are low. Consumers are better off under cooperation if spillovers are high. We find that there can be a mismatch between private and social incentives. If spillovers are low and trade costs are low then cooperation might be privately profitable but socially undesirable. On the other hand, if there are large spillovers and high trade costs then cooperation may be socially desirable but not privately profitable.     

The impact of the Belt and Road Initiative on the expansion of China's higher education in overseas markets along the route

Due to the differences in economic and social conditions among the Belt‐and‐Road (B&R) countries, resources exchange might bring significant effect on companies and organizations in these countries. In recent years, vigorously developing university education and attracting more outstanding international students have become important means for “B&R” countries to expand education market and enhance international influence. However, there is limited research discussing the impact of “B&R” on the internationalization of higher education. Taking the sponsoring country (China) of the “B&R” strategy as an example, this article explores the impact of this strategy on Chinese universities' expansion in the education market, and further analyzes the important relevant factors from the perspectives of international competitiveness. The findings show that the B&R Initiative has a significant impact on the expansion of Chinese universities in overseas markets along the route. Furthermore, we have found “push” factors related to China's macro and micro environments, and “pull” factors associated with countries along the B&R route.     

Do cross-border mergers and acquisitions increase short-term market performance? The case of Chinese firms

Despite the new momentum in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by emerging market firms, we have a limited understanding of the impact of these activities. Drawing on signalling theory and the institution-based view, this paper examines the extent of stock market reactions to the announcement of cross-border M&A deals, based on an event study of a sample of Chinese firms during the period 2000–2012. The findings indicate that the announcement of cross-border M&As results in a positive stock market reaction; this effect is more significant in the mainland Chinese stock markets (Shanghai and Shenzhen) than that in the Hong Kong market. The shareholders of Chinese firms that acquire a target firm in a host country with a low level of political risk gain higher cumulative abnormal returns than those firms targeting companies in countries with a high level of political risk. The shareholders of Chinese state-owned enterprises experience lower abnormal returns compared with those of Chinese privately owned firms when engaging in cross-border M&A deals.     

The role of financial investors in determining the commodity futures risk premium

I develop and test a model to study the interaction between the commodity and stock markets. This study attempts to clarify the debate about the effect of financialization on commodity markets. Theoretically, the futures risk premium is determined by hedging pressure, stock market returns, and the commodity–equity correlation. Empirically, the effect of the stock market on the energy market became significantly greater for the futures risk premium in the period following the 2008 crisis. Furthermore, hedging pressure is a strong explanatory variable for the futures risk premium in various circumstances.     

R&D spillovers through trade in a panel of OECD industries

This paper investigates the significance of Research and Development (R&D) spillovers through intra- and international trade in intermediate goods for productivity growth in a panel of OECD industries during 1973–1994. In the model, four different sources of R&D are identified: R&D conducted in the particular industry itself, R&D conducted in the same industries in other countries, R&D conducted in other domestic industries, and R&D conducted in other foreign industries. I find that among R&D sources the most important contributions to productivity growth come from the domestic R&D efforts. Here, own R&D is important for both domestic innovation and for the productivity catch-up process. Evidence that international R&D spillovers also have significant effects on productivity growth is found to be less robust. My analysis also shows that human capital affects productivity directly as a factor of production.