Central Bank Independence,Speed of Disinflation and the Sacrifice Ratio

Using a theoretical model in which the degree of central bank independence affects the degree of inflation persistence and therefore the speed of disinflation, this paper suggests that sacrifice ratios are lower when central bank independence is higher. Empirical tests, using estimates of sacrifice ratios based on disinflation episodes for 18 OECD countries during the 1960–90 period, show that this result also holds empirically. This finding seems to be consistent with the credibility hypothesis by pointing out that an independent central bank may produce a credibility bonus.     

Disinflation costs, accelerating inflation gains, and central bank independence

Disinflation Costs, Accelerating Inflation Gains, and Central Bank Independence. - This paper considers the impact of central bank independence on both the costs of disinflation and the gains of accelerating inflation. For this purpose, sacrifice ratios for disinflation episodes and benefice ratios for accelerating inflation episodes are constructed by using a new method. The ratios are calculated for 19 industrial countries over the period 1960–1992. The results indicate that central bank independence only matters during disinflation episodes: Sacrifice ratio and output loss are higher, the more independent the central bank is; whereas during accelerating inflation episodes, central bank independence has no influence on either the benefice ratio or the output gain.     

Global production networks and China's processing trade

This paper unveils a systematic pattern in China's processing trade. In a cross-section of Chinese provinces, the average distance traveled by processing imports (import distance) is negatively correlated to the average distance traveled by processing exports (export distance). To explain this pattern, we set up a three-country industry-equilibrium model in which heterogeneous firms from two advanced countries, East and West, sell their products in each other's markets. Each firm can use two modes to serve the foreign market. It can directly export its products from its home country. Alternatively, it can indirectly export to the foreign market by assembling its product in a third low-cost country, China, which is located in the vicinity of East. Our model establishes two theoretical predictions relating China's geographical location to its processing trade patterns. First, China's processing exports are negatively affected by both an increase in import distance and a rise in export distance. Second, China's processing exports to East Asian countries are more sensitive to export distance and less sensitive to import distance than its processing exports to non-Asian countries. We find empirical support for both predictions.     

Human capital inflow,firm innovation and patent mix

In this article, a theoretical model of heterogeneous firms is built that emphasizes how human capital inflow (HCI) affects a firm’s innovation. The model shows that when HCI increases, the cost of a firm’s innovation decreases, the relative innovation efficiency gap between any two patents decreases, and the quality of each existing patent increases, which makes firms produce more patents, improve the quality of innovation and reduce the skewness of the patent mix. Empirical tests with data from Chinese Listed Companies are consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model, and robust to various estimation specifications. Moreover, the impacts of HCI vary across different types of patents, that is, both the quantity and quality of invention patents increase with HCI, while the skewness of the patent mix decreases. However, there is no evidence that HCI influences utility model patents.     

R&D,financing constraints and export green-sophistication in China

This paper provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the effects of R&D and financing constraints on the green-sophistication of Chinese firm exports. The theoretical model predicts that firms' R&D expenditure improves the level of green sophistication and financing constraints have moderating effects on firms' the export green-sophistication. The paper constructs an index of the export green-sophistication by incorporating green coefficient in traditional export sophistication. We use the data from the China industrial firm database and confirm our theoretical predictions. The financing constraints are found to have a significant moderating effects on the relationship between R&D and export green-sophistication in basic test and robustness check.     

认真对待预测:国际关系理论发展与预测

国际关系理论具有描述、解释、预测和指导等主要功能,但学术界长期以来对理论的预测功能缺乏足够的重视。作者通过考察科学哲学以及国际关系理论领域的既有成果后发现,理论预测可以作为评估和发展理论的必要组成部分,并能为修正和完善主流国际关系理论提供有价值的知识。虽然理论预测的准确与否并不能作为评判理论解释力强弱的唯一标准,但在满足理论所设定的解释范围和条件之内,一种指涉经验现实的理论也应该可以做出相对具体且明确的预测来帮助我们理解国际格局或国家行为的发展趋势。自冷战结束后,国际关系理论界围绕国际格局变迁与东亚地区国际秩序转型等问题展开了诸多争论,通过对这些成果进行初步评估,作者发现几种主流国际关系理论的解释力和预测力都有待提升,准确的预测需要对不同理论的核心要素进行综合,这样才能更加全面地反映现实世界的复杂性。     

Modeling the currency issue

This paper, which includes a critique of an article that appeared in the [New Zealand]Reserve Bank Bulletin, considers the difficulties of building a forecasting model of the optimum structure of the currency (that is, notes and coins) in circulation. The reviewed model leads to predictions that are not consistent with recent experience and there are theoretical objections to the specification of both the independent and the dependent varibles. Alternative approaches are explored, but the conclusion is that this aspect of money is probably not amenable to mathematical modeling.     

Natural resource extraction,corruption, and expropriation

We develop a formal model that looks at the mutually endogenous determination of foreign direct investments in the extraction of natural resources, at the decision of host governments to expropriate these investments, and at the level of corruption. Higher investments in resource extraction make expropriation more attractive from the perspective of national governments. A low expropriation risk is in turn an important determinant of international investments and is therefore associated with high levels of resources extraction. Moreover, investments in the resource sector also raise corruption. Our theoretical predictions are confirmed by estimations of a simultaneous equation model in which we endogenize expropriation risk, corruption, and resource extraction.     

消费不足、投资过度与偏向性金融政策

自1996年以来,中国消费产出比与投资产出比分别经历着一降一升的过程,致使经济最终呈现了两个重要性特征：消费不足和投资过度。本文通过在动态随机一般均衡模型中,构建投资偏向性金融政策和内生化趋势性差异特征的方式,分析消费和投资经历的阶段性变化及两个特征的成因和后果。利用中国1996年1季度至2014年4季度的六组季度数据作为观测变量,采用贝叶斯方法估计模型参数,并利用脉冲响应和方差分解等方法分析议题。结果表明：（1）持续稳定有效的投资偏向性金融政策是促成消费产出比快速下降、投资产出比快速上升的主因,进而造成消费不足与投资过度;（2）生产技术进步不仅可以促使消费产出比上升,同时有效抑制了投资过度;（3）家户部门消费偏好的变化和投资的短期调整,是解释投资产出比和投资消费比波动的主因。为此,建立和完善市场化投资环境,促进创新活动,可以有效地抑制过度投资并提高消费产出比。本文研究对科学理解中国经济波动及变化趋势,实现平稳可持续发展具有重要的理论价值和现实意义。     

Are International Remittances Altruism or Insurance? Evidence from Guyana Using Multiple-Migrant Households

While international remittances provide significant disposable income for many households in less-developed countries, there is no consensus on migrants’ remittance motivation. Two principal competing explanations for remittances are altruism and risk sharing. This paper employs previously unanalyzed data to bring new evidence to the debate. We develop a simple theoretical model that yields distinct testable predictions for each motivation. Among the model’s testable predictions is differential remittance behavior by migrants from households with multiple versus single migrants under altruism and risk sharing. Our estimation finds significant differences in remittance behavior of multiple and single migrants and these differences support the altruistic incentive to remit.     

The Sacrifice Ratio and Central Bank Independence Revisited

Several recent studies make use of cross-country data to examine the relationship between a country's sacrifice ratio and the extent to which its central bank is insulated from political influence. These studies report a positive correlation between these two variables. However, these studies employ econometric methodologies that do not account for the measurement error which contaminates their proxies for central bank independence. This paper makes use of an alternative econometric methodology, one that does account for this measurement error, and finds a strong negative relationship between the sacrifice ratio and Central Bank independence.     

Consumption Behavior,Annuity Income and Mortality Risk of Retirees

Previous empirical studies have found that individuals do not draw down their assets after retirement which is at odds with the predictions of a simple life cycle model without uncertainty. Hurd (Econometrica 57(4):779–813, 1989; Mortality risk and consumption by couples, 1999) explains such saving behavior of retired singles and couples by adding lifetime uncertainty to the simple life cycle model. We tested whether predictions about consumption during retirement of this extended life cycle model hold for a sample of older Americans. We used data from the Health and Retirement Study supplemented with data from the Consumption and Activities Mail Survey. In line with theory we found that, on average, total consumption is greater than their annuity income after retirement and that this difference increases with the level of initial wealth. For older singles but not for couples our results suggest that, as predicted by the extended theoretical model of Hurd, the on average negative consumption growth decreases with higher mortality rates.     

Special Interest Groups and Trade Policy in the EU

The aim of this work is to employ theoretical and empirical analysis on the role of special interest groups in the determination of the EU trade policy. We build a two-stage game model of trade policy formation in a multisector-multicountry framework. We obtain the level of protection as a function of industry characteristics, in addition to political and economic factors at member state and European levels. The model is then tested by 2SLS estimation using data for 15 countries and 41 sectors. The econometric output suggests empirical support to model’s predictions as it highlights an important role for both national and European groups in trade policy making.      

Sibling donation games: pure-altruism,strategic-altruism,and the interaction of familial and public transfers

Accompanying the rapidly aging populations of high-income countries are increasing transfers of time and money from adult children to elderly parents (ascending altruism). In this paper we first develop a theoretical model to characterize the general reaction-functions of two adult siblings choosing transfer amounts (possibly time) to their needy parents under two alternative motivations: pure altruism and strategic altruism. We show that transfers are strategic substitutes under pure altruism and strategic complements under strategic altruism. The Nash-equilibrium generates distinct predictions associated with each motivation and we then explore some implications of our findings. A result with potentially important policy implications is that the response of children transfers to increased pension payments to the parents depends on the children's motivations. This contrasts with much of the literature which assumes transfers decrease with increased pension payments.     

The Economics of Animal Farm

This paper uses George Orwell's fictional story Animal Farm to make a comparison between Orwell's predictions and the Chinese experience with communism. An analogy is made between two characters from his novel, Napoleon the Boar, who attains power, and Boxer the horse, who does not. These are analogous to members and nonmembers of the Communist party, respectively. Readily available data by Griffen and Renwei (1988) are then used to compare the economic conditions of approximately 22,000 individuals. The empirical results strongly support many of Orwell's predictions. A theoretical predatory growth model that potentially explains the results is also introduced.     

Deflation in China

This article investigates the causes of deflation China has experienced since 1998. The analysis is based on a theoretical model which makes the distinction between tradable and non-tradable goods and on the estimation of a reduced equation of consumer price variations for the period 1986–2002. The empirical results corroborate the theoretical predictions. The main conclusion is that the slowing down of inflation and the fall of prices are chiefly explained by Chinese macroeconomic policy. Moreover and contrary to current opinion we find that deflation is partly due to the deceleration of productivity growth in the tradable sector.     

Innovation and exporting: evidence from Spanish manufacturing firms

This paper investigates the relationship between innovation and the export behavior of firms using data from a representative panel of Spanish firms over 1991–2002. It presents a simple theoretical model of the firm decision to export and innovate that guides the econometric analysis. Consistent with the predictions of the theoretical model, the econometric results suggest a positive effect of firm innovation on the probability of participation in export markets. The results further reveal the heterogeneous effects of different types of innovations on the firm export participation. In particular, product upgrading appears to have a larger effect on the firm export participation than the introduction of cost-saving innovations. These findings are robust to firm unobserved heterogeneity, dynamic specifications, and to the use of instrumental variables to control for the potential endogeneity between innovation and exporting.     

Reducing China's regional disparities: Is there a growth cost?

While China's growth has been spectacular over the past 30 years, it has masked growing underlying disparities in the regional distribution of income with coastal provinces growing at a much faster rate than the rest of the country, exacerbating already marked differences in per capita income. Policy focused on addressing these growing disparities has had to face the possibility that spreading growth more evenly around the country will require a sacrifice of the national growth rate. Yet there is almost no empirical evidence that this is so and, if it is, how big the required sacrifice is. This paper contributes to filling this gap by analyzing the relationship between aggregate growth and the inequality of regional output distribution. We use a VAR model to simulate the effects over time on growth of a reduction in inequality and also the effects on inequality of an increase in growth. We find, first, that in the long run a more equal distribution can be obtained without a growth sacrifice. Second, in the short run a reduction in inequality reduces growth. Third, in the short and long runs an increase in growth actually reduces inequality.     

Dissipation of Knowledge and the Boundaries of the Multinational Enterprise

This paper provides a theoretical formalization of the joint-venture contract, as an alternative to foreign direct investment (FDI), within a Dissipation of Intangible Assets (DIA) framework. In a two-period model, we discuss how the threat of knowledge spillover shapes the boundaries of a multinational enterprise (MNE). Similarly to the theoretical findings on the FDI-licensing trade-off, we show that the integrated solution is more likely to emerge when know-how easily spills over—i.e., when firms are endowed with more intangible assets or they belong to high-tech industries. Probit estimates, from a new firm-level data set, show that Japanese manufacturing operations in Europe are in line with these predictions. JEL no. F23, C25, O5