Illustrating the importance of Austrian business cycle theory: A reply to Murphy,Barnett, and Block; A call for quantitative study

Murphy et al. (2009) criticize Young’s (2005) test of Austrian business cycle theory (ABCT) using US industry-level quarterly job reallocation data and the federal funds rate as a monetary policy indicator. I argue that not only are Murphy et al.’s specific criticisms misguided; more importantly, they all but completely rule out the type of empirical study that Young (2005) advocates: specifically, one that (1) is quantitative and distinguishes between statistical and economic significance and (2) attempts to exploit a hypothesis that is both a prediction of ABCT and not a prediction of competing monetary theories of the cycle. I argue that empirical studies embodying (1) and (2) are critical to ABCT as a research program. Furthermore, I review the existing econometric studies of ABCT from the last 10 years and conclude that there is much room for improvement along these lines.     

PREDICTING STOCK RETURNS AND VOLATILITY WITH INVESTOR SENTIMENT INDICES: A RECONSIDERATION USING A NONPARAMETRIC CAUSALITY‐IN‐QUANTILES TEST

Evidence of monthly stock returns predictability based on popular investor sentiment indices, namely S^BW and S^PLS as introduced by Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) and Huang et al. (2015) respectively are mixed. While, linear predictive models show that only S^PLS can predict excess stock returns, nonparametric models (which accounts for misspecification of the linear frameworks due to nonlinearity and regime changes) finds no evidence of predictability based on either of these two indices for not only stock returns, but also its volatility. However, in this paper, we show that when we use a more general nonparametric causality‐in‐quantiles model of Balcilar et al., (forthcoming), in fact, both S^BW and S^PLS can predict stock returns and its volatility, with S^PLS being a relatively stronger predictor of excess returns during bear and bull regimes, and S^BW being a relatively powerful predictor of volatility of excess stock returns, barring the median of the conditional distribution.     

Ambiguity attitude, R&D investments and economic growth

The process aimed at discovering new ideas is an economic activity the returns from which are intrinsically uncertain. We extend the neo-Schumpeterian growth framework to investigate the role of strong uncertainty in the innovative process. In particular, we postulate that, when deciding upon R&D efforts, investors hold ‘ambiguous beliefs’ about the exact probability of arrival of the next vertical innovation, and that they face ambiguity via the α −MEU decision rule (Ghirardato et al., J Econ Theory 118:133–173, 2004). Along the balanced growth path, the higher the agent’s ambiguity aversion (α), the lower the R&D efforts and the economic performance. Consistent with cross-country empirical evidence, this causal mechanism suggests that, together with the profitability conditions of the economy, different ‘cultural’ attitudes towards ambiguity may help explain the different R&D efforts observed across countries.     

An evolutionary explanation of the value premium puzzle

As early as 1934 Graham and Dodd conjectured that excess returns from value investment originate from a tendency of stock prices to converge towards a fundamental value. This paper confirms their insights within the evolutionary finance model of Evstigneev et al. (Econ Theory 27:449–468, (Evstigneev et al. 2006)). Our empirical results show the predictive power of the evolutionary benchmark valuation for the relative market capitalization and its dynamics in the sample of firms listed in the Dow Jones Industrial Average index in 1981–2009.     

Reaching for the stars: the appointment of celebrities to corporate boards

For a sample of over 700 celebrity appointments to corporate boards of directors over the period 1985–2006, we find positive excess market returns at the time of their announcement. The 1-, 2-, and 3-year long-run performance of the appointing firms provide corroborating evidence of the value of these appointments. We conclude that the appointment of celebrities as directors increase a firm’s visibility in a fashion consistent with Merton’s (J Finance 42:483–510, 1987) investor recognition hypothesis.     

The role of ethics and product personality in the intention to purchase organic food products: a structural equation modeling approach

The aim of the present study is to examine the role of ethical dimensions and product personality in the purchasing intention of organic food products. The Prospect method (Caprara et al. in Test Psicomet Metodol 7(3–4):113–128, 2000), which integrates the Five factors model of personality (cf. Digman in Annu Rev Psychol 41(1):417–440, 1990) and the Theory of planned behavior (Ajzen in Organ Behav Hum Decis Process, 50(2):179–211, 1991) extended to an ethical dimension, was employed, by using a Structural Equation Modeling approach. Results showed that moral norms—i.e., personal beliefs regarding what is right or wrong (Parker et al. in Br J Soc Psychol, 34(2):127–137, 1995)—can be considered the main motivator of purchasing intention, and they are, in turn, affected by subjective norms and product personality traits of Naturalness and Authenticity. Marketing implications for firms operating in the organic food industry are discussed, in their intent to shift from a “niche” market to a broader diffusion of these products.     

A non-linear approach for predicting stock returns and volatility with the use of investor sentiment indices

The popular sentiment-based investor index S^BW introduced by Baker and Wurgler (2006, 2007) is shown to have no predictive ability for stock returns. However, Huang et al. (2015) developed a new investor sentiment index, S^PLS, which can predict monthly stock returns based on a linear framework. However, the linear model may lead to misspecification and lack of robustness. We provide statistical evidence that the relationship between stock returns, S^BW and S^PLS is characterized by structural instability and inherent nonlinearity. Given this, using a nonparametric causality approach, we show that neither S^BW nor S^PLS predicts stock market returns or even its volatility, as opposed to previous empirical evidence.     

Convergence Across the United States: Evidence from Panel ESTAR Unit Root Test

Many empirical studies try to test whether there is income convergence across metropolitan areas in the continental United States. Drennan et al. (Journal of Economic Geography 4(5), 2004) claim that income among metropolitan economies is diverging for the period 1969–2001, after applying univariate unit root tests to the time series data. This paper brings new information to this area of study by using the nonlinear panel unit root test of the Exponential Smooth Auto-Regressive Augmented Dickey–Fuller (ESTAR-ADF) unit root test on the time series data for the period 1929–2005. Our results find evidence of stationarity for time series and thereby support beta and sigma convergence among states in a nonlinear setup. However, when the non-linear test encompasses cross section dependence as advocated by Cerrato et al. (2008), the evidence is attenuated.     

Testing the balanced growth hypothesis: evidence from China

We investigate whether China’s experience during 1952–2004 supports the balanced growth entailment of the neoclassical growth model. Estimation of long-run relations among output, consumption and investment for the full period reject the balanced growth hypothesis for both the national and regional economies. When the economic reforms of the late 1970s are modelled as a structural break by the methods of Johansen et al. (Economet J 3(2):216–249, 2000) and Perron (Econometrica 57(6):1361–1401, 1989), we find some evidence of balanced growth in the pre-break period but in the post-break period the ‘great ratios’ are trend-stationary, precluding fully balanced growth, though permitting a common (stochastic) productivity trend.      

Financial intermediation and growth: causality and causes without outliers

In a seminal paper, Levine et al. (J Monet Econ 46:31–77, 2000) provide cross-sectional evidence showing that financial development has positive average impact on long-run growth, using a sample of 71 countries. We argue that the evidence is sensitive to the presence of outliers.

Economic structural reform and China’s financial security

The authors believe that the financial operation based on the issuance of paper money in excess of economic capacity resulting from dependence on the state investment is the central manifestation of factors of China’s financial insecurity. The financial support for the economic reform, the financial reform and the impact of globalization constitute the major logic of its formation. The fundamentals to safeguard financial security lie in the persistence of the state’s comprehensive development strategy, so as to maintain long-term accumulation of the state’s net wealth and the stability of faith in markets. Translated from Jingji Lilun yu Jingji Guanli 经济理论与经济맜理 (Economic Theory and Business Management), 2006, (7): 5–12     

When Do Opening Stock Returns Tend to be Higher?

Abstract

In this study, I make an effort to formulate a trading rule that would make use of some systematic interday patterns in individual stocks’ opening returns. I analyze intraday price data on all the stocks that were S&P 500 Index constituents during the period from 1993 to 2012. I document that if the general market direction of the previous day's opening session is controlled for, then a stock's opening return tends to be higher if, on the previous trading day, its opening return was relatively high (either positive, or higher than the same day's opening market return) and its open-to-close return was relatively low (either non-positive, or lower than or equal to the same day's open-to-close market return). Finally, for the sampling period, I construct two different investment portfolios involving a long position in the stocks on the days when, according to the findings, their opening returns are expected to be high and a short position in the stocks on the days when, according to the findings, their opening returns are expected to be low. Both portfolios are found to yield significantly positive returns, providing evidence for the practical applicability of the documented patterns in opening stock prices.     

Common Trends and Common Cycles in Per Capita GDP: The Case of the G7 Countries, 1870–2001

In this paper we analyze per capita incomes of the G7 countries using the common cycles test developed by Vahid and Engle (Journal of Applied Econometrics, 8:341–360, 1993) and extended by Hecq et al. (Oxford Bulletin of Economics and Statistics, 62:511–532, 2000; Econometric Reviews, 21:273–307, 2002) and the common trend test developed by Johansen (Journal of Economic Dynamics and Control, 12:231–254, 1988). Our main contribution is that we impose the common cycle and common trend restrictions in decomposing the innovations into permanent and transitory components. Our main finding is permanent shocks explain the bulk of the variations in incomes for the G7 countries over short time horizons, and is in sharp contrast to the bulk of the recent literature. We attribute this to the greater forecasting accuracy achieved, which we later confirm through performing a post sample forecasting exercise, from the variance decomposition analysis.

My money or yours: house money payment effects

This paper reports the results of an experiment designed to study how subjects’ decision making may be affected by the timing of participation payments (or show-up fees). The experiment follows Davis et al. (J. Econ. 30:69–95, 2004) where subjects were asked to make a sequential purchase decision and were given the opportunity to purchase information about the value of a good prior to a decision to purchase the good itself. There, subjects purchased information less often than expected which was interpreted as risk-seeking behavior. Here, we test a payment hypothesis by varying the timing of the participation payment. Payment of a show-up fee before the decision-making stages of the experiment increases information purchase, which we interpret as an increase in risk-averse behavior.     

The Efficiency of the Realized Range Measure of Daily Volatility: Evidence from Greece

In this study we estimate and compare the realized range volatility, a novel efficient volatility estimator computed by summing high–low ranges for intra‐day intervals, to the recently popularized realized variance estimator obtained by summing squared intra‐day returns. Our results, derived from a Greek equity high‐frequency data set, show that realized range‐based measures improve upon the corresponding realized variance‐based ones in most cases, especially for the most actively traded stocks. The usefulness of high‐frequency data in measuring and forecasting financial volatility is apparent throughout the paper.     

Evolution of networks—an experimental analysis

It is the main aim of our paper to study network formation in experimental setups in discrete and continuous time. Our design is inspired by the theoretical model on network formation by Bala and Goyal (Econometrica, 68(5): 1181–1229, 2000) as well as the experiments by Callander and Plott (J. Public Econ., 89: 1469–1495, 2005) and Falk and Kosfeld (IEW Working Paper, University of Zürich, Zürich, Switzerland, No. 146, 2003). In particular, we analyze the role of star-shaped networks which are strict Nash-equilibria of the corresponding network formation game. Our experimental results show that strict Nash networks prove to be a good indicator for predicting network formation, particularly in continuous time. In explaining our results, it turns out that, among others, the complexity in coordinating on stars, the inequity aversion against unequal payoff distribution in the network, and the groups’ degrees of activity are the most important determinants for the formation of strict Nash networks.      

Spatial Welfare Economics Versus Ecological Footprint: A Sensitivity Analysis Introducing Strong Sustainability

The aim of this paper is a sensitivity analysis with the core-periphery model of ‘new economic geography’ put forward in Grazi et al. (Environ Resour Econ 38:135–153, 2007). This model comprises interregional trade, agglomeration advantages and resource (land) use or environmental externalities. Grazi et al. (2007, GBR) compare a social welfare (SW) indicator with the ecological footprint (EF) indicator for measuring spatial sustainability of a set of land use configurations. Their main result is that the SW and the EF indicator can yield completely different rankings and only for extreme parameterizations of environmental externalities the rankings coincide. We adapt the model by interpreting total natural land as a resource constraint and differentiate between weak and strong sustainability. In a sensitivity analysis we show that the main results of GBR (2007) correspond to the case of weak sustainability in our adapted model version. In the case of strong sustainability our adapted model version shows the same welfare rankings for both indicators without the extreme parameterization that is necessary to obtain the same results in the original GBR (2007) model.     

Investment horizon effect on asset allocation between value and growth strategies

How does the optimal risk exposure of assets change as their investment horizons increase? Does this impact investment portfolio decision-making, in particular, optimal asset allocation between value and growth strategies over various investment horizons? This paper adopts a new approach to address these questions by examining portfolio allocation between value and growth stocks over various investment horizons. This new approach is based on wavelet analysis, which decomposes the returns of a particular investment strategy across multiple investment horizons. The key empirical results show that the success of pursuing the value strategy (short-selling growth stocks and going long on value stocks) is impacted by the approach used to classify value and growth stock returns. We explore two common alternatives: Fama-French versus Standard & Poor's (S&P) 500/Barra portfolios. The results using Fama-French portfolios show that as the investment horizon increases, the optimal mean allocation of investors tilts heavily away from growth stocks, particularly for lower and moderate levels of risk aversion. Interestingly, for S&P 500/Barra portfolios the allocation weights between value and growth do not vary much.     

Optimal balanced growth in a general multi-sector endogenous growth model with constant returns

I will study a multi-sector endogenous growth model with general constant returns to scale technologies and demonstrate the existence, uniqueness and the saddle-path stability of the balanced growth equilibrium. I will first demonstrate the existence of a balanced growth equilibrium, by showing that the balanced growth rate associated with the balanced growth equilibrium is solely determined by solving a Frobenius root problem of the price equations derived from the Euler equations and the property of the nonsubstitution theorem. Then I will show the saddle-path stability of the balanced growth equilibrium without any capital intensity conditions, which is a generalized property proved in the two-sector endogenous growth models by de Guevara et al. (J Econ Dyn Control 21, 115–143, 1997), Bond et al. (J Econ Theory 68, 149–173 1996) and Mino (Int Eco Rev 37, 227–251 1996). The theorem clearly implies that the balanced growth equilibrium has a transition path in the neighborhood of the balanced growth equilibrium. The paper was presented at the conferences “Irregular Growth: Beyond Balanced Growth” held on June 19–21, 2003 in Paris and “Economic Growth and Distribution: On the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations” held on June 16–18, 2004 in Lucca, Italy. From the discussion with Alain Venditti at CNRS-GREQAM, Gerhard Sorger at University of Vienna and the conference participants, I have been benefited much by writing this paper. Especially Alain Venditte had given me a chance to take a look at his unpublished paper titled ” Indeterminacy and the Role of Factor Substitutability” jointly written with Kazuo Nishimura at Kyoto University and published in Macroeconomic Dynamics, Vol. 8. The author also would like to thank an anonymous referee for useful suggestions.