非理性状态下的企业投资决策——行为公司金融对非效率投资行为的解释

经典的公司金融理论建立在决策主体完全理性、有效资本市场的假设基础上。隐含地假定企业经理人与市场投资者都是追求效用最大化的理性决策者。但是,越来越多的资本市场异象和公司异常财务行为表明,决策主体的认知偏差及市场的非理性会直接影响决策过程和结果,而这很难被生硬地框入传统的经济理性范畴。现实中,企业经理人与市场投资者的非理性是普遍存在的,而且深刻影响着公司的财务战略决策,如公司融资、投资、股利政策以及收购兼并等。行为公司金融将市场投资者和企业经理人的非理性引入到企业财务行为研究中,对企业非效率投资行为给出了更为符合现实、也更有说服力的解释。     

金融危机的“公地悲剧”现象解析——兼论资产负债表对企业边界的界定功能

本文从产权与道德风险的视角解释国际金融危机的成因,运用公地悲剧理论剖析金融资源产权管理缺位的牧场效应,深入分析金融危机背后蕴含的因多个市场主体个体理性选择叠加导致整个市场资源配置效率缺失的集体非理性现象,以及因企业经理人逆向选择诱发的道德风险。籍此,探索破解市场失灵问题和防范经理人道德风险的对策,即基于资产负债表的经济学意义和战略内涵,提出用企业边界治理治愈市场失灵,规避市场对资源配置的公地悲剧;用资产负债表界定企业战略边界和利益相关者治理边界的初步构想。防范企业管理层道德风险。确保企业遵守全体股东确立的长远发展战略承诺,以制约企业因短期财务目标而向其他市场参与主体转嫁风险的短期逐利行为,规避个体理性选择导致市场资源非理性配置的公地困境。     

证券市场中投资者行为的进化博弈分析

本文采用进化博弈的复制动态方法对证券市场中投资者行为进行了分析.论证了:投资者非理性投资行为是长期存在的;投资预期收益越大时,非理性投资者就越多;投资者学习和模仿速度越快,达到理性投资策略和非理性投资策略均衡的速度就越快.     

没有通胀也要应对通胀

“众人皆醉我独醒”是怎样一种超然飘逸的生活!现实却是，这种生活带来的结果可能只是悲剧。一直以来，羊群效应总是被视作非理性行为的重要表征，然而，当疯狂的羊群在本没有路的地上留下深深的脚印并最终踏出一条新路之时，非理性行为就脱去了非理性的外衣，扛着大势所趋的旗帜让稀有的理性选择付出沉痛的短期代价。所以，你可以轻视甚至鄙视非理性行为，但你不能无视它，无视它引发的市场躁动和政策变化可能本身就是所谓“理性选择”的非理性之处．     

正反馈交易者对股指期货套利的影响——对DSSW模型的扩展讨论

DSWW模型讨论了当理性交易者和非理性交易者数量相等的情况下,正反馈交易者的交易行为以及金融资产价格的波动情况.本文放松了DSWW模型的假定,讨论了当理性交易者和非理性交易者数量比例为常数的情况下,各个交易者的套利行为以及对金融资产价格的影响.并对中国的股指期货市场和美国股指期货市场进行了比较分析,讨论了当理性交易者和非理性交易者的比例不同的情况下,各国的股指期货市场的运行效率以及股指期货价格的波动程度.     

国企高管频现“新面孔”专家解读国资委用人之道

轻轻点击百度,只用0.16秒的时间,搜索两个再简单不过的汉字词汇:国企、高管,结果是惊人的,数以万计的搜索结果扑面而来。作为这两年最热门的话题,国企高管的人选问题牵动了太多人的注意力。“因为关键所以关注,因为变化所以进步”,有人这样总结。从一批元老级的企业家如长城的王之、三九的赵新先、长虹的倪润峰的离去,到四大电信运营商的一把手“大换班”,再到重要职位的海内外公开招聘。国资委可以说是铆足了劲在国企的人事制度上来了一次彻底的改革。这次改革的影响力已经正在显现,有经济学家描述这是中国国企走向市场经济的必然性转折。…     

协同环境下管理模式变革因素互动关系研究

针对传统的管理模式在运行过程中易产生信息控制瓶颈的现象，本文基于协同理论．建立了一个管理模式系统来研究管理模式变革因素的互动关系，并构造出数学模型从理论上证明了该协同模式的有效性，所得的结论解释了管理模式变革的基本规律，为定量研究管理模式变革因素的互动关系奠定了基础。     

基于博弈分析的人的理性转化研究

与集体理性相对应的个人理性导向推动带有自利性质的个人行为选择。个人理性与集体理性之间存在矛盾与冲突的深层原因,在于由人的理性所导向的狭隘自利行为。本文立足于重复动态博弈理论,通过理论推演和模型构建,以及相关条件的探索与满足,促成个人行为导向从狭隘自利向合理自利转化或个人理性与集体理性的统一,亦即实现人的理性转化。从而不仅使各博弈参与人摆脱“囚徒困境”局面并走向共同合作,也使社会或企业组织中的博弈活动获得帕累托改进甚至帕累托最优的均衡结果。     

市场行情

2001年纱类价格行情有望走强的原因有以下几点:1、技术上有向上反弹要求。由于纱类整体价位跌幅已大,平均在1500元/吨以上,跌幅已久,长达3个多月,因此按照市场运行规律,在技术上有强烈向上反弹要求。2、消费观念将逐步走向理性。从纱类行情下跌缘由中不难发现,除一些客观因素外,为因素或非理性因素起到推波助澜作用。例如不惜大幅亏本售货,任何厂家和公司都不可能长期坚持下去,随着年关过去,新一年生产经营必将步入正常轨道,人们的消费观念也将变得理性。3、化纤原料价格继续下跌的空间越来越小。由于纱类市场去年四季度销     

获得幸福的能力——儿童教育政治学之五

获得幸福的能力是儿童教育的初衷,传授或灌输这一价值的有效途径只能是"模仿"。作为被模仿者的家长如何"扮演"好自己的角色?在许多不同能力当中,应使孩子最先获得哪些能力?只要家长们观察和思考过孩子们注意力的"稀缺性",就必定同意这是认真教育孩子的家长们的首要问题——孩子的注意力应理性地(沿空间和沿时间)配置于哪些能力的培养过程?最重要的能力是获得幸福的能力,这是儿童教育的初衷。这一短语的英文     

The rationality of emotions: A hybrid process model of decision-making under uncertainty

Decision-making continues to be a vital area of research on organizations, particularly in Asia. After years of research under the cognitive approach, there has been an upsurge of scholarly attention connecting decision-making to emotion. Nonetheless, competing accounts of the role played by emotion in decision-making have created a conundrum as to whether emotion is rational or irrational and whether it should even be considered along with other cognitive aspects of the decision-making process. In response, we derive a hybrid process decision-making model to integrate the effects from cognition and emotions varying with the levels of uncertainty. In proposing this model, we seek to differentiate the rationality of emotions from the instrumental, functional, and expressive mechanisms in decision-making. In particular, we proffer that affective construal legitimates the rational account of emotions under high uncertain situation. Finally, we draw some key implications and recommendations for organizational research in the Asian region.     

A systematic technique for new product idea generation: the external brain

The author outlines a novel computer-based technique to generate ideas for new products. Essentially the technique uses the so-called Dialog databank, claimed to have access to 152 million units of information, to search for all publications in the database which combine a root concept and words such as idea, innovation, novelty, and so on. The computer can then be instructed to print out the titles of a restricted number defined by the searcher from each database accessed. The searcher can then study the contents of each publication at leisure. In principle other similar databanks can be used.
The technique is illustrated by two hypothetical cases: new uses for water and new uses for metal-powder technology.
The author claims that the technique will generate a large number of ideas in a short time at low-cost, can be used selectively (eg to search within a stated time-period), will link otherwise unrelated disciplines, and is well suited to brainstorming. The main drawbacks are that much of the information may be irrelevant, it cannot provide entirely new ideas though it can link existing concepts in a new way, and it cannot print out the total text from an identified source.     

A Model of the Asset Disposition Decision of the RTC

The purpose of this paper is to develop a model of the asset disposition decision for the Resolution Trust Corporation (RTC). In this paper, we focus on the primary goal of the RTC—to maximize the net present value of the cash flows generated through holding and selling the assets it acquires. A major decision it faces is whether to hold or sell assets. This decision ultimately depends on the RTC's discount rate versus that of the marginal buyer. A second question relates to the decision of which assets to sell first and which ones to delay sale. The model developed in this paper characterizes the asset disposition decision process of the RTC for different types of assets. We develop a set of optimal disposition rules based on the simple premise of a multi-period cash flow maximization. In addition, we test some of these rules by analyzing RTC disposition performance. Through this exercise, we hope to provide some guidance to the RTC in implementing its enormous task as well as to policy makers in charting the progress of the RTC. The main results of this analysis indicate that liquid assets and retail deposit franchises should be sold as quickly as possible. Illiquid assets that are performing and do not have high servicing costs are good candidates to finance through senior/subordinated securities or sale with seller financing by the RTC. Illiquid non-performing assets are good candidates for equity participation financing by the RTC. The sales proceeds obtained by the RTC will be increased if buyers have greater certainty with respect to expected cash flows and RTC sales policies.     

What about Passive Innovation Resistance? Investigating Adoption‐Related Behavior from a Resistance Perspective

Adoption literature has been dominated by a novelty‐seeking paradigm, whereas resistance to innovation has received considerably less attention as a means to explain and predict adoption‐related behavior. The lack of a good metric to assess consumers' predisposition to resist innovations has prevented the establishment of a common ground for empirical research and thus hampered progress to date. This paper develops and empirically validates a scale to measure individual differences in consumers' predisposition to resist innovations (hereafter, passive innovation resistance, or PIR). The proposed instrument entails a personality‐specific and situation‐specific measure that assesses individual differences in consumers' predisposition to resist innovations, emerging from their inclination to resist changes and exhibit status quo satisfaction. The scale represents a measure of the generic tendency to resist innovations and thus captures the notion of a general disposition to act in a consistent way in various situations. The results of multiple studies show that the PIR scale has good psychometric properties, and its relationships with other constructs conform to theoretical expectations. Furthermore, the PIR scale explains and predicts adoption‐related behaviors beyond the variance accounted for by traditionally investigated constructs such as innate innovativeness, big‐five personality dimensions, or demographic variables. These results clearly reveal the importance of PIR for determining adoption‐related behavior but contest a conceptualization of constructs that tap only novelty seeking at a high level as the direct antecedent of adoption. Research that attempts to explain and predict adoption‐related behavior can benefit from taking a resistance perspective as well.     

Building Dynamic Capabilities in New Product Development through Intertemporal Integration

Although successful development of a given product may help explain the current success of a firm, creating longer‐term competitive advantage demands significantly more attention to developing and nurturing dynamic integration capabilities. These capabilities propel product development activities in ways that build on and develop technological and marketing capabilities for future product development efforts and create platforms for future product development. In this article, we develop a conceptual model of a dynamic integration process in product development, which we call intertemporal integration (ITI). In its most general form ITI is defined as the process of collecting, interpreting, and internalizing technological and marketing capabilities from past new product development projects and incorporating that knowledge in a systematic and purposeful manner into the development of future new products. Research propositions outlining the relationship of ITI to performance are presented. We provide specific examples of managerial mechanisms to be used in implementing ITI. We conclude with implications for research and practice. Effective management of ITI can increase new product development success and long‐term competitive advantage. This implies that management needs to engage in activities that gather and transform information and knowledge from prior development projects so that it can be used in future development projects. Project audits, design databases in computer‐aided design (CAD) systems, engineering notebooks, collections of test and experimental results, market research and test market results, project management databases, and other activities will all be important in the acquisition of knowledge from prior new product development (NPD) projects. Managers also should initiate the creation and maintenance of databases of technical and marketing information from prior projects, job performance reports, seminars and workshops related to technological issues and advances, and publication of technical journals to assist in the process of knowledge acquisition. Similarly, techniques such as assigning project managers from earlier development projects, reusing key components and technologies, and developing a company‐wide methodology for managing projects can be used to boost the application and use of knowledge.     

Towards an attention‐based view of technology decisions

The importance of technology decisions is widely acknowledged in both research and practice. However, we know little about how companies structure technology decisions from an organizational point of view and how attention is distributed in the course of the decision process in order to identify, process, and transfer information between the organizational units involved. Using the attention‐based view of the firm and 14 qualitative case studies, we present five approaches for organizing technology decisions: (1) centralized decision‐making, (2) busy information bee, (3) double‐blind analysis, (4) moderated expert panel, and (5) coterie approach. On this ground, this paper introduces a new, attention‐based view on technology decisions, which improves the theoretical understanding of organizations and provides guidelines for practitioners in choosing an appropriate organizational configuration in this regard.     

How Internet technologies impact information flows in R&D: reconsidering the technological gatekeeper

Previous studies have firmly established the technological gatekeeper to be a key node in the innovation process – acquiring, translating, and disseminating external information throughout the R&D unit. However, the gatekeeper concept has received modest attention in recent times. We argue that the concept needs to be re‐examined in light of the recent advances in Internet technologies that have dramatically altered how knowledge workers source and share their information. Drawing on social network analysis and interview evidence from a medical devices R&D group, we find that the gatekeeper role is still vital, but no longer needs to be performed by a single individual. Instead, the modern R&D group can keep abreast of the latest technological advances through a combination of Internet‐enabled internal and external communication specialists. This study makes a number of important contributions. The gatekeeper theory is extended through the development of an updated conceptual framework. We also discuss the practical implications of our findings and advise R&D managers on how to organise resources to maximise optimal information flows.     

Effectual and causal reasoning in the adoption of marketing automation

Research on technology adoption in organizations traditionally assumes that these organizations follow rational, strategic and planned adoption processes. However, a gradually emerging view is that the adoption of technology is also characterized by entrepreneurial or effectual reasoning, primarily due to technological and market uncertainties that call for more agile and experimental approaches at the digital age. Drawing on effectuation theory, we develop a research framework to examine the managerial reasoning during the adoption of marketing automation technology. Based on the results of a comparative multiple-case study on four large-sized industrial firms, we develop a maturity model of marketing automation adoption and show that even large-sized B2B companies apply effectual reasoning, which problematizes the rationality assumption in the technology adoption literature. Second, we show that during the adoption process, organizations' dominant reasoning mode follows an iterative pattern in which the adopting organization moves back and forth between effectuation and causation. Finally, we identify five key domains of marketing automation (customer knowledge, information systems infrastructure, analytics, interdepartmental dynamics and change management) and describe their gradual evolution at different stages of the adoption process.     

How to use instrumental variables in addressing endogeneity? A step-by-step procedure for non-specialists

Endogeneity issues in empirical research have received increasing academic attention. Tackling endogeneity problems effectively and using the appropriate estimation techniques are important quality benchmarks in the publication process of many academic journals. In this paper, we discuss the use of instrumental variables (IVs) in business and marketing research, with a particular focus on its implementation in STATA. We discuss several pre- and postestimation tests that researchers can use to implement various versions of IVs in STATA, including two-stage least squares regression, limited information maximum likelihood estimation, and generalized method of moments.     

A Theory of Vacant Urban Land

The purpose of this paper is to examine the prevalence and causes of vacant urban land. The paper is organized in four parts. The first part summarizes the available information on the extent of vacant urban land. The second section attempts to explain the existence of vacant land by using concepts often applied to labor unemployment. In part three that vacant land which the labor concepts do not explain is attacked with another tool from the economic tool box, the "optimal-harvest-time" solution, but this solution is found to have limited applicability. The paper concludes with a brief discussion of how the framework developed in parts two and three might be used.
Central in this paper is the attempt to analyze vacant land with theories developed for unemployed labor. This procedure stems from the belief that, whenever possible, new phenomena should be attacked with old theories. Such a methodology conserves effort, for if the old and new phenomena are indeed similar, new theories may not only be unnecessary but undesirable–product differentiation has a cost. Moreover, an old theory can bring out similarities that may not be obvious at first glance, and may suggest areas that deserve more attention.