HOUSING AND INCOME DISTRIBUTION IN RUSSIA: ZHIVAGO'S LEGACY

The inadequacy of housing and its effect on the quality of lifego a long way toward explaining many aspects of Russian life,but little data has been available to determine how housingaffected the relative well-being of the citizenry. This paperpresents comprehensive data examining for the first time theeffect that seventy years of a socialist housing allocationscheme had on the distribution of income. It seems clear thathousing provided by the government or by employers has a valuethat can be measured to yield useful inferences about the distributionof income and wealth. This article shows that housing allocation had a progressiveeffect on the distribution of income in Russia. In addition,when the imputed value of housing is added to household income,the increase in income inequality that occurred in recent yearsis significantly reduced. The analysis concludes with a discussionof how housing policy could be used to address poverty concerns,an important aspect of the transition process.      

PRIVATIZATION: LESSONS FROM MARKET ECONOMIES

In the past decade governments all over the world have begunprivatizing state enterprises—indeed, it is becoming quitehard to find a country without a program of privatization underway or at least on the policy agenda. This striking reversalof the push to expand state ownership in the 1960s and 1970sresults from generally poor performance of state enterprisesand a disappointing record of past reform efforts that fellshort of ownership change. This article examines the objectives of privatization and thestrategies for achieving them, documenting recent trends andreviewing the experience with privatizing state-owned commercial,manufacturing, and service enterprises in both competitive andnoncompetitive markets. The authors analyze the various tacticsthat can be or have been employed, in relation to scope, pace,sequencing, and methods of implementation. The evidence showsthat privatization produces benefits of efficiency and innovation—ifdone right. The lessons of experience discussed in the articleoffer guidance on how to realize the promise of privatizationwhile minimizing the risks and costs.      

What Should the World Bank Think about the Washington Consensus?

The phrase "Washington Consensus" has become a familiar termin development policy circles in recent years, but it is nowused in several different senses, causing a great deal of confusion.In this article the author distinguishes between his originalmeaning as a summary of the lowest common denominator of policyadvice addressed by the Washington-based institutions (includingthe World Bank) and subsequent use of the term to signify neoliberalor market-fundamentalist policies. He argues that the latterpolicies could not be expected to provide an effective frameworkfor combating poverty but that the original advice is stillbroadly valid. The article discusses alternative ways of addressingthe confusion. It argues that any policy manifesto designedto eliminate poverty needs to go beyond the original versionbut concludes by cautioning that no consensus on a wider agendacurrently exists.      

EMERGING EQUITY MARKETS: GROWTH, BENEFITS, AND POLICY CONCERNS

Since the mid-1980s, stock market activity has increased substantiallyin many developing countries. This article first examines themain characteristics of emerging stock markets and illustratesthe evolution of equity prices in these markets during the lastdecade. It then discusses the reasons for the markets' growthand assesses the extent to which they have been affected bydomestic policies and external factors. The authors discussthe likely benefits of these markets, the effects any abruptcorrection in stock prices could have for the economy, and theways in which these markets can be made more efficient.      

REFORM OF TRADE POLICY: Recent Evidence from Theory and Practice

In the 1980s many developing countries began to recognize thatrestrictive trade policies can constrain growth. To facilitatetrade and integration into the world economy, many countrieshave embarked on reform programs. This survey synthesizes theconclusions of the literature on trade policy reform with thoseof a recent study by the World Bank analyzing reforms in developingcountries, particularly those supported by adjustment lendingprograms. Its objective is to shed light on some of the questionsabout these programs to guide policymakers in the future. Thearticle reviews conditions in these countries before trade policyreforms were implemented and examines how much reform actuallytook place. It also examines the effects of the reforms on economicperformance and reviews the factors that constrained the reformprocess. The survey considers the most important issues in designingand implementing trade policy reforms and concludes that althoughpast reforms have had a positive impact, future programs shouldemphasize three elements: reducing the level of protection,maintaining macroeconomic stability, and accounting for theconflicts and complementarities with other policies.      

Is There a Case for Industrial Policy? A Critical Survey

What are the underlying rationales for industrial policy? Doesempirical evidence support the use of industrial policy forcorrecting market failures that plague the process of industrialization?This article addresses these questions through a critical surveyof the analytical literature on industrial policy. It also reviewssome recent industry successes and argues that public interventionshave played only a limited role. Moreover, the recent ascendanceand dominance of international production networks in the sectorsin which developing countries once had considerable successimplies a further limitation on the potential role of industrialpolicies as traditionally understood. Overall, there appearsto be little empirical support for an activist government policyeven though market failures exist that can, in principle, justifythe use of industrial policy.      

Targeting Revisited

Public spending programs aimed at alleviating poverty can eitherbe broadly targeted at categories ofspending or narrowly targetedat types of people. Each approach has benefits and costs tothe poor. It is often claimed that narrow targeting of the poorwill allow governments to reduce pQverty more effectively andat lower cost. But narrow targeting often has hidden costs,and once these costs are considered, the most finely targetedpolicy may not have any more effect on poverty than a broadlytargeted one. Both approaches also have hidden benefits, althoughless is known about their impact. Targeting can help, but itis not a cure-all. Reducing poverty calls for broadly targetedsocial sector spending combined with narrower targeting of cashand in-kind transfers to spec groups. It is also important forgovernments to experiment with schemes that offer better incentives,to carefully monitor the costs and outcomes, and to be flexibleand pragmatic in their policy responses.      

Timing and Duration of Exposure in Evaluations of Social Programs

Impact evaluations aim to measure the outcomes that can be attributedto a specific policy or intervention. While there have beenexcellent reviews of the different methods for estimating impact,insufficient attention has been paid to questions related totiming: How long after a program has begun should it be evaluated?For how long should treatment groups be exposed to a programbefore they benefit from it? Are there time patterns in a program'simpact? This paper examines the evaluation issues related totiming, and discusses the sources of variation in the durationof exposure within programs and their implications for impactestimates. It reviews the evidence from careful evaluationsof programs (with a focus on developing countries) on the waysthat duration affects impacts.      

The Evolution of the World Bank's Land Policy: Principles, Experience, and Future Challenges

This article examines the evolution of policy recommendationsconcerning rural land issues since the formulation of the WorldBank's "Land Reform Policy Paper" in 1975. That paper set outthree guiding principles: the desirability of owner-operatedfamily farms; the need for markets to permit land to be transferredto more productive users; and the importance of an egalitarianasset distribution. In the 25 years since that paper was published,these guiding principles have remained the same, but it is nowrecognized that communal tenure systems can be more cost-effectivethan formal title, that titling programs should be judged ontheir equity as well as their efficiency, that the potentialof land rental markets has often been severely underestimated,that land-sale markets enhance efficiency only if they are integratedinto a broader effort at developing rural factor markets, andthat land reform is more likely to result in a reduction ofpoverty if it harnesses (rather than undermines) the operationof land markets and is implemented in a decentralized fashion.Achieving land policies that incorporate these elements requiresa coherent legal and institutional framework together with greaterreliance on pilot programs to examine the applicability of interventionsunder local conditions.      

REFORMING PROPERTY RIGHTS IN LAND AND TENANCY

This article examines the nature and distribution of propertyrights in land and how they are changing under economic anddemographic pressures. It also analyzes the practical chancesof success of several alternative forms of policy interventionto redistribute property rights and regulate tenancy. This analysisbegins with the political economy of land reform in the twentiethcentury. It draws a distinction between reforms precipitatedby social upheaval (defeat in war, social revolution, or nationalliberation) and those that occur in "normal" times, when thesocial and political order is more secure. It is argued thatthe former have been much more important and, drawing on examples,that the latter face formidable obstacles. In this connection,it is proposed that a tax reform which does away with the highlyselective subsidies and exemptions that benefit the rich andinflate the price of land should be undertaken first. Then,when land prices have fallen, compulsory purchase of land forredistribution, at close to fair market value to ensure itspolitical acceptability, would not entail an intolerable fiscalburden. Where tenancy is concerned, it is argued that this institutionis commonly a socially useful market response, which providesopportunities for the fuller employment of family resourcesand, over the long run, for individual mobility. Thus interventionsdesigned to inhibit tenancy directly or to transfer ownership-likerights to existing tenants may result in heavy costs, especiallyfor future cohorts of would-be tenants.      

DEVELOPMENT, THE ENVIRONMENT, AND THE SOCIAL RATE OF DISCOUNT

This article examines the role of the discount rate in makingdecisions that will have significant implications for the environment.The authors begin by providing a rationale for discounting ingeneral and by describing the main factors that determine thediscount rate. These factors—the private and social ratesof time preference, the opportunity cost of capital, risk anduncertainty, and the interests of future generations—allhave an environmental dimension. The article goes on to examinethat dimension and to explore the connections between the choiceof the discount rate and environmental concerns, such as excessiveexploitation of natural resources, inadequate investment inconservation, and insufficient attention to the irreversibleloss of certain environmental resources. The authors conclude that, in general, environmental concernsare not best addressed by lowering the discount rate—anaction that might have both benefits and costs for the environment.A more promising course would be to incorporate a criterionof sustainability into certain aspects of decisionmaking. Howsuch a criterion could be made operational is touched upon butnot developed in this article.      

Macroeconomic Stability in Developing Countries: How Much Is Enough?

Over the 1990s macroeconomic policies improved in most developingcountries, but the growth dividend from this improvement fellshort of expectations, and a policy agenda focused on stabilityturned out to be associated with a multiplicity of financialcrises. This article examines the contents and implementationof the macroeconomic reform agenda of the 1990s. It reviewsthe progress achieved through fiscal, monetary, and exchangerate policies across the developing world and the effectivenessof the changing policy framework in promoting stability andgrowth. The main lesson is that more often than not slow growthand frequent crises resulted from shortcomings in the reformagenda of the 1990s. These concern limitations in the depthand scope of the reform agenda, its lack of attention to macroeconomicvulnerabilities, and its inadequate attention to complementaryreforms outside the macroeconomic sphere.      

Toward Transparency: New Approaches and Their Application to Financial Markets

The Asian financial crisis in the late 1990s not only highlightedthe welfare consequences of transparency in the financial sectorbut also linked this relatively narrow problem to the broadercontext of transparency in governance. It has been observedthat objections to transparency, often on flimsy pretexts, arecommon even in industrialized countries. This article arguesthat transparency is indispensable to the financial sector anddescribes its desirable characteristics: access, timeliness,relevance, and quality. The authors emphasize the need to weighthe costs and benefits of a more transparent regulatory policy,and they explore the connection between information imperfections,macroeconomic policy, and questions of risk. The article arguesfor developing institutional infrastructure, standards, andaccounting practices that promote transparency, implementingincentives for disclosure and establishing regulations to minimizethe perverse incentives generated by safety net arrangements,such as deposit insurance. Because institutional developmentis gradual, the authors contend that relatively simple regulations,such as limits on credit expansion, may be the most reasonableoption for developing countries. They show that transparencyhas absolute limits because of the lack of adequate enforcementand argue that adequate enforcement may be predicated on broaderreforms in the public sector.      

An Assessment of Privatization

Mounting empirical evidence of privatization's benefits coincideswith increasing dissatisfaction and opposition among citizensand policymakers. This dissatisfaction reflects the growingquestioning of the benefits of privatization, the general downturnof global markets in the past few years and the resulting swingof the pendulum back toward increased governmental supervision,the overselling of privatization as a panacea for all economicproblems, and the concern that privatization does not producemacroeconomic and distributional gains equivalent to its microeconomicbenefits. This article takes stock of the empirical evidenceand shows that in competitive sectors privatization has beena resounding success in improving firm performance. In infrastructuresectors, privatization improves welfare, a broader and crucialobjective, when it is accompanied by proper policy and regulatoryframeworks. The article argues that despite the growing concernsprivatization should be neither abandoned nor reversed. Rather,there should be a strengthening of efforts to privatize correctly:by better tailoring privatization to local conditions, deepeningefforts to promote competition and regulatory frameworks, enforcingtransparency in sales processes, and introducing mechanismsto ensure that the poor have access to affordable essentialservices.      

TRADE POLICY AND PRODUCTIVITY GAINS IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES: A Survey of the Literature

Despite the widely accepted view that liberal, outward-orientedtrade policies are superior to restrictive, inward-orientedpolicies, doubts about liberalization remain strong in manycircles. One reason for such doubt is the dearth of researchquantifying the large gains that liberal trade policies aresaid to generate. The survey of the literature undertaken forthis article was a review of the evidence on the link betweentrade policy and efficiency, or productivity, gains in developingcountries. Does the literature support the view that more opentrade policies bring greater efficiency? Several inferencesare drawn from the literature on sources of growth—particularlywith regard to increases in capacity utilization and economiesof scale. The article also examines evidence from the few studiesthat explicitly try to correlate efficiency gains directly withtrade policy. These studies fall into three categories: thosethat evaluate the effect of trade policy on market power ordegree of competition; those that measure total factor productivityor technical efficiency gains and correlate these with the degreeof protection; and those that estimate the aggregate effectsof changes in trade policy on welfare (mainly with computablegeneral equilibrium models, which measure dynamic efficiencygains from trade). In a final section, the article pulls togetherthe findings from the indirect and direct evidence as a basisfor suggesting a number of hypotheses on the link between efficiencyand trade policy. One conclusion is that country-specific analysisover time appears to be superior to cross-country comparisons.      

PARALLEL EXCHANGE RATES IN DEVELOPING COUNTRIES

Dual exchange rates and black markets for foreign exchange arecommon in developing countries, and a body of evidence is beginningto emerge on the effects that such parallel foreign exchangesystems have on macro-economic performance. This article presentsa simple typology of parallel systems, discusses their emergence,and looks at why countries prefer these arrangements to themain alternatives. The article examines the ability of parallelmarkets to insulate international reserves and domestic pricesfrom shocks to the balance of payments. Drawing on the findingsfrom eight detailed case studies, the authors discuss the determinationof the parallel premium in the short and long terms, the relationshipbetween the premium and illegal transactions, and the fiscaleffects of parallel rates. They compare the experiences of countriesthat have attempted to unify their foreign exchange marketsand discuss the implications for policy alternatives.      

ENTREPRENEURS AND ENTREPRENEURSHIP IN AFRICA

The article examines the widespread belief that indigenous entrepreneurshipis less well represented in African countries than in otherparts of the developing world. The evidence shows no dearthof ability among Africans to identify business opportunitiesand to act upon them—the two quintessential characteristicsof entrepreneurship. But the management problems these businesseshave sometimes encountered suggest that there may be a continuingrole for expatriates, provided the industries are fundamentallysound. Small businesses appear to have a better chance of successand are more viable than some of the heavily protected and subsidizedtransnational enterprises. The article finds that successful industrial entrepreneurs havecome from a variety of religious, cultural, and educationalorigins. It casts doubt on the efficacy of training programsto teach entrepreneurial skill and argues instead that a liberaleconomic regime is more likely to encourage entrepreneurship.Equally important is a well-grounded and widely dispersed growthof income, especially among small-scale cultivators, which leadsto a growth of demand for what small businesses produce.      

AID IN THE DEVELOPMENT PROCESS

This article examines the economic effects of aid and the relationshipsamong private capital flows, official flows, and concessionalassistance. It considers whether official and concessional flowsimprove the welfare of both recipient and grantor, and it outlinesthe economic rationale for concessional assistance. The impactof aid on a recipient's growth performance is analyzed, andsome criticisms of aid are evaluated.      

Income Risk, Coping Strategies, and Safety Nets

Poor rural and urban households in developing countries facesubstantial risks, which they handle with risk-management andrisk-coping strategies, including self-insurance through savingsand informal insurance mechanisms. Despite these mechanisms,however, vulnerability to poverty linked to risk remains high.This article reviews the literature on poor households' useof risk-management and risk-coping strategies. It identifiesthe constraints on their effectiveness and discusses policyoptions. It shows that risk and lumpiness limit the opportunitiesto use assets as insurance, that entry constraints limit theusefulness of income diversification, and that informal risk-sharingprovides only limited protection, leaving some of the poor exposedto very severe negative shocks. Public safety nets are likelyto be beneficial, but their impact is sometimes limited, andthey may have negative externalities on households that arenot covered. Collecting more information on households' vulnerabilityto poverty—through both quantitative and qualitative methods—couldhelp inform policy.      

ON "HUNGER AND PUBLIC ACTION": A Review Article on the Book by Jean Dreze and Amartya Sen

Recent writings on poverty and hunger agree broadly on objectivesand means but diverge significantly in emphasis. Views differon the importance and function of economic growth and on howmuch weight to give to direct public support. These differencescan matter in policy choices. Hunger and Public Action, by JeanDrèze and Amartya Sen, is an important contribution tothe literature on antihunger policy. This article criticallyexamines the issues raised by the book, its differences withother recent writings, and the implications for both policyand future research on policy.