新兴经济体FDI流入的决定因素及中国的应对策略

吸引FDI流入是新兴经济体促进经济发展的重要手段,但FDI活动深受东道国区位因素的广泛影响。利用1995-2009年的面板数据,对新兴经济体吸引FDI流入的决定因素进行实证分析,结果表明:FDI与东道国聚集效应、市场规模、基础设施、资源禀赋、经济开放度显著正相关,但与东道国人力资本和政治风险负相关。因此,中国应该强化FDI的区域聚集效应、行业聚集效应和特定投资来源地聚集效应,保持经济稳定、持续的增长,加大对落后地区的基础设施建设的投入,构建全方位的对外开放体系和引资战略,实现经济持续快速发展。     

The impact of foreign direct investment on the relative return to skill

Since the early 1980s, China has adopted favourable economic policies to attract FDI in order to facilitate technology development. Since inward FDI induces either sector‐ or factor‐biased technical progress, the impact of FDI on the distribution of income between skilled and unskilled labour is not trivial. This paper introduces vertical product differentiation to analyze the impact of FDI on the return to skill and concludes that, for a labour abundant country, this impact depends on whether the FDI‐induced technology transfer is skill‐ or labour‐biased, regardless of which sector receives FDI. The analysis shows that FDI with relatively labour‐biased technology will decrease the wage gap while FDI with relatively skill‐biased technology will increase the profit margin of the host country’s exports as well as its wage gap. The findings provide policy insights for FDI recipient countries in balancing wage growth between skilled and unskilled workers by managing inward FDI with relatively labour‐biased and skill‐biased technologies. This is particularly important for China given the expected further increase of inward FDI following its imminent membership of the WTO. JEL classification: F23, J31, P33.     

Do Multinational Enterprises Contribute to Convergence or Divergence? A Disaggregated Analysis of US FDI*

It is widely held that foreign direct investment (FDI) has a positive effect on economic growth. To test this hypothesis, we perform convergence regressions derived from a theoretical model on the impact of FDI on endogenous technological change in small economies. The model includes FDI externalities that enhance growth, but also shows that FDI can crowd out host country income and reduce local innovation. The empirical analysis employs disaggregated US data for various FDI‐related activities—in addition to the conventionally used aggregate FDI stocks and flows. We estimate the net FDI impact on the convergence rate of per‐capita income to US levels, controlling for human development, financial development, and trade. We find that FDI accelerates convergence for high‐income countries only, otherwise slowing it down.     

U.S. foreign direct investment in Latin America and the Caribbean: a case of remittances and market size

This article investigates the effect of remittances on U.S. foreign direct investment (FDI) flows to Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC). It covers 26 countries for the period 1983–2010. The results show a positive and significant impact of remittances on U.S. FDI flows. However, this effect depends upon the level of gross domestic product (GDP) per capita of the host country. On average, the results show that increasing remittances by one standard deviation increases U.S. FDI flows by 0.44 percent a year. Also, host country demand positively affects U.S. FDI flows, which supports the market size hypothesis.     

外贸政策对外商直接投资溢出效应的影响

"巴格瓦蒂假说"表明,外商直接投资的"溢出效应"不是自然产生的,"溢出效应"是否产生以及"溢出效应"的大小取决于东道国一定的经济环境,其中一个重要因素是东道国的外贸政策.本文利用中国1982～2003年的年度序列数据进行实证分析,结果表明我国外贸政策体制对外商直接投资的溢出效应产生不利的影响.其原因是我国外贸政策体制是以重商主义的"出口创汇"思想为基本指导原则的,这使我国的外贸政策仍属于一种保护型政策,因而不利于外商在华投资溢出效应的发挥.     

The impact of third-country effects and economic integration on China's outward FDI

The study employs a spatial econometric model to explore the impact of third-country effects and economic integration on China's outward FDI (OFDI). The results show that the pattern of China's OFDI tends toward a complex FDI without third-country effects. The degree of economic integration and host country's political risk both have a negative influence on China's OFDI. Furthermore, greater cultural proximity between China and the host country, as well as greater per capita income (market size), both have significant benefits to China's OFDI. The host country's market opportunity has a significant negative effect on China's OFDI.     

Pollution Haven with Technological Externalities Arising from Foreign Direct Investment

This paper presents a two-stage game, in which in the first stage two multinational firms (MNFs) seeking pollution havens choose a location, that is, whether to export to or undertake FDI in the host country, and in the second stage, these two MNFs and a firm in the host country play a Cournot game. The MNFs’ location decisions are influenced by the fixed cost of FDI, the spillover of technologies to a foreign firm, and pollution emission standards in the host and home countries. There exist multiple equilibria in the location pattern because of the technology spillover accompanied by FDI. In addition, the analysis leads to the possibility of an equilibrium based on the Prisoners’ Dilemma. When the host country relaxes emission standards, the MNFs choose FDI, although their profits are higher if both choose to export instead. This provides a rationale for the FDI source country’s intervention to restrict the MNFs’ FDI according to the level of environmental regulation in the host country.     

FDI视角的环境库兹涅茨假说检验——基于中国中部八省的面板数据

环境库兹涅茨假说认为环境污染指标先随收入的提高而增加,而后随收入的提高而下降。本文利用1985-2008年中国中部八省大气污染、污水和固体废弃物（＂三废＂）等环境质量指标的面板数据,从FDI的视角对中国中部经济发展与环境污染关系进行了库兹涅茨假说检验。结果显示,中国中部八省没有严格意义上的倒U型环境库兹涅茨曲线,FDI对中部各省环境的影响存在差异,数据回归结果也没有支持污染天堂假说。     

In search of FDI-led growth in developing countries: The way forward

This paper challenges the widespread belief that FDI generally has a positive impact on economic growth in developing countries. It addresses the limitations of the existing literature and re-examines the FDI-led growth hypothesis for 28 developing countries using cointegration techniques on a country-by-country basis. The paper finds that in the vast majority of countries, there exists neither a long-term nor a short-term effect of FDI on growth; in fact, there is not a single country where a positive unidirectional long-term effect from FDI to GDP is found. Furthermore, our results indicate that there is no clear association between the growth impact of FDI and the level of per capita income, the level of education, the degree of openness and the level of financial market development in developing countries.     

双重古诺竞争下的FDI关联溢出效应

扩展了以往理论研究的基本假设,在古诺竞争框架下分析FDI进入东道国上下游双边市场时的关联溢出效应。结果显示:当FDI仅进入东道国的下游市场时,FDI产生的竞争效应会增加下游市场的总产出,从而增大对上游市场中东道国本土供应商的后向关联程度,且其增大程度与技术差距正相关;在FDI同时进入东道国上下游双边市场的情况下,上游市场的FDI会对东道国本土供应商产生挤出效应,且两者的技术差距越大,挤出效应越明显,同时会对下游市场中的东道国本土生产者产生明显的前向关联,上游市场总产出的增加使得中间产品的均衡价格下降,直接减少了下游本土生产者的边际生产成本,从而增加了其产出和利润,部分抵消了下游市场的FDI的挤出效应。     

Altruism: primary motivation of remittances

This article examines primary incentives of remittances. After controlling for host country’s GNI per capita, real exchange rates and real interest rates, a rise in home country’s GNI per capita leads to fewer remittances. A rise in host country’s GNI per capita motivates migrants to remit more. Real interest rates have no effect on remittances. These results indicate primary incentive of remittances is altruism.     

How Does Globalization Affect Income Inequality? A Panel Data Analysis

One of the major issues on the state of income inequality is the effect of globalization through foreign direct investment (FDI). It is well known that FDI inflows create employment opportunities for unskilled labor intensive countries. Hence, during recessionary (expansionary) periods, FDI outflows should cause an increase in a developing (developed) country’s unemployment rate, worsening income inequality. This study differs from the previous literature by employing the key variables FDI, trade volume, and GINI coefficient for a panel of three groups of countries (developed, developing, and miracle countries). We estimated panel cointegration coefficients via FM-OLS. Our results show that the effects of trade liberalization and FDI on income distribution differ for different country groups.     

中国与印度利用FDI的科技创新效果比较研究

利用FDI过程中研发国际化对东道国创新体系的结构与绩效也产生了较为明显的影响,而研发国际化的技术外溢取决于研发的类型与东道国的经济、科技等背景。通过中印两国在利用FDI促进本国科技创新方面的比较发现：中国利用FDI资源特别是在外资研发机构及其研发支出方面明显强于印度;中国在吸收FDI技术溢出的研发投入、硬件条件等方面较明显优于印度;中国是开放度很高的＂外资带动＂型的创新路径,而印度更偏向于＂自主创新＂型的发展模式;制约中国自主创新还存在一些亟待破解的深层障碍。     

Technology sourcing versus technology exploitation: an analysis of US foreign direct investment flows

The traditional paradigm of foreign direct investment (FDI) suggests that FDI is undertaken principally to exploit some firm-specific advantage in a foreign country which provides a locational advantage to the investor. However, recent theoretical work suggests a model of FDI in which the motivation is not to exploit existing technological advantages in a foreign country, but to access such technology and transfer it from the host economy to the investing multinational corporation via spillover effects. This paper tests the technology sourcing versus technology exploiting hypotheses for a panel of sectoral FDI flows between the United States and major OECD nations over a 15 year period. The research makes use of Patel and Vega’s (Research Policy, 28, 145–55, 1999) taxonomy of sectors which are likely a priori to exhibit technology sourcing and exploiting behaviour respectively. While there is evidence that FDI flows into the United States are attracted to R&D intensive sectors, very little support is found for the technology sourcing hypothesis either for inward or outward FDI flows. The results suggest that, in aggregate, firm-specific ‘ownership’ effects remain powerful determinants of FDI flows.     

Determinants of foreign direct investment

Empirical studies of bilateral foreign direct investment (FDI) activity show substantial differences in specifications with little agreement on the set of included covariates. We use Bayesian statistical techniques that allow one to select from a large set of candidates those variables most likely to be determinants of FDI activity. The variables with consistently high inclusion probabilities include traditional gravity variables, cultural distance factors, relative labour endowments and trade agreements. There is little support for multilateral trade openness, most host‐country business costs, host‐country infrastructure and host‐country institutions. Our results suggest that many covariates found significant by previous studies are not robust.     

Getting help from abroad: The macroeconomics of foreign direct investment in infrastructure in low‐income countries

Infrastructure financing needs in most low‐income countries are substantial, but funding for such needs is only partly covered by national governments and aid donors. This paper introduces foreign direct investment (FDI) through public–private partnerships as a source of infrastructure financing in low‐income countries. A two‐sector open economy model is developed to assess the macroeconomic performance of FDI in infrastructure. With efficient foreign investment, an increase in revenue‐generating infrastructure investment boosts productivity and spurs private investment while stabilizing domestic prices. A direct comparison between infrastructure financed by domestic versus foreign investment shows that foreign investment creates higher output growth and welfare gains and is preferable to domestically sourced investment, irrespective of the underlying financing instrument the domestic economy is employing. FDI in non‐revenue‐generating infrastructure is also analyzed and discussed.     

Does More Consumption Promote Real GDP Growth?

This paper employs Hansen's (1999) panel threshold regression model [Journal of Econometrics 39 (1999) 345–68] based on a time series dataset of 109 countries from 1960 to 2007 to investigate the threshold relationship between the change in real GDP per capita and the consumption size (consumption‐income ratio, APC). The results show that the consumption level should not exceed the 49.68% threshold of real GDP per capita for each country regardless of the income level. Also, the relationship between the change in real GDP per capita and the consumption size seems to have ‘Armey curve’ or ‘inverted‐U shape’ characteristic. In order to promote real GDP growth, our results suggest that the high‐income, low‐APC countries should encourage more consumption while the low‐income, high‐APC countries should encourage more saving.     

How does foreign direct investment affect economic growth in China?

How does inward foreign direct investment (FDI) affect a transitional economy? This study attempts to analyze the role of FDI in China’s income growth and market‐oriented transition. We first identify possible channels through which FDI may have positive or negative effects on the Chinese economy. Using a growth model and cross‐section and panel data for the period 1984‐98, we provide an empirical assessment, which suggests that FDI seems to help China’s transition and promote income growth, and that this positive growth effect seems to rise over time and to be stronger in the coastal than the inland regions. JEL classification: F21, F23, O53.     

东道国腐败对FDI及其来源的影响

腐败问题很早就受到政治学和经济学学者的重视,但在国际商务领域内,对这一问题的研究只有近十年的历史.东道国腐败不但会对流入该国的外商直接投资总量产生影响,而且会影响FDI的来源.运用国际公开数据,以FDI流入作为研究对象,实证检验以上理论假设,结果证明东道国腐败会对外商直接投资产生负面影响,如果FDI来源国存在海外反腐败法,东道国腐败就会使来自这些国家的FDI减少.     

The effect of FDI on child labor

This paper examines the effect of FDI on child labor. Using 1995 data for 145 countries, we find that, contrary to common fears, FDI is negatively correlated with child labor. This effect disappears when controlling for per capita income. After doing so, we find no robust effect of either FDI or international trade on child labor. This result is robust to corrections for the endogeneity of FDI, trade, and income. Furthermore, this result is confirmed using data from earlier years. This suggests that the impact of FDI and trade on child labor, if any, is the increases in income they generate.