农业生产的自然灾害与两业保险

<正>农业生产在很大程度上受自然灾害的影响和制约。所谓自然灾害,包括气象气候灾害、生物(病、虫、鼠)害,地质地貌害、环境灾害等共约1200多种。 我们知道,即使在农业生产技术日益发达的今日,自然灾害所造成的损失和不良影响也是无法完全避免的。农业生产的自然灾害是人类生存和发展的大敌,减轻灾害损失,摆脱灾害痛苦是人类自古以来所梦寐以求的。人保公司试办的各种农村种植业及养殖业保险的根本目的就是为了增强农业生产者与经营者增强抗灾救灾的能力。 一、自然灾害与种植业保险 我国自然灾害频率高、种类多、灾情重,在正常的年景,每年有四亿多亩农田遭受不同程度的干旱、雨涝、冰雹、台风等危害,减产常达数百亿公斤,导致     

巨灾风险证券化的发展与启示

我国是世界上自然灾害最严重的少数几个国家之一,自然灾害种类多,发生频率高、强度大、损失严重。据联合国统计资料显示,20世纪全球54个最严重的自然灾害中,有8个发生在中国,给人民群众的生产生活带来严重影响,造成了各类财产的巨大损失。自今年1月中旬以来,我     

完善财政防灾救灾管理机制

我国是世界上受自然灾害影响最为严重的国家之一,自然灾害种类多、分布地域广、发生频率高,严重影响了经济社会可持续发展和人民生命财产安全。尽管在现有的科技水平下,还无法完全规     

“一带一路”战略下的区域间防灾减灾合作

一、“一带一路”国家的自然灾害分布从防灾减灾的视角提出推动“一带一路”倡议发展的呼声较少,但却不代表并不重要。”“一带一路”沿线地区,尤其是亚洲地区,一直以来都是自然灾害易发、多发的区域,且沿线国家多为发展中国家,在防灾减灾和救灾方面经验不足、重视不够、投入不高,共同造成了自然灾害发生后的严重损失。     

种植业自然灾害风险模型研究进展

种植业自然灾害风险模型是自然灾害风险定量评估服务于保险精算的重要桥梁,是种植业自然灾害保险公平性与可持续性的重要保障。本文介绍了种植业自然灾害保险精算对风险评估模型的具体需求,回顾并评述了近年来在种植业自然灾害风险模型中的主要进展,总结了四类主要建模方法。对模型发展趋向的研究表明,整合各类建模方法的优势,构建多灾种框架下、灾害事件建模为基础、作物生长模拟为手段的综合模型,准确定量评估各种(次)自然灾害造成的产量损失,有效区分保险责任覆盖的损失与其它损失,实现不同空间尺度的总损失风险估计与转换,是种植业自然灾害风险模型研究的主要方向。进一步开展种植业自然灾害综合风险研究,对构建中国自主知识产权的种植业自然灾害风险模型,以科技促进种植业自然灾害保险专业化发展具有重要意义。     

自然灾害对吉林省粮食生产影响的实证分析

自然灾害对吉林省粮食生产年均造成60亿元的损失,自然灾害已成为阻碍吉林省农业持续、快速发展的主要因素。因此,提高农业自然灾害的预测水平,增强抵御农业自然灾害的能力,是吉林省农业发展的关键。     

自然灾害对经济增长影响研究 ——基于制度、政府救灾支出的调节视角

基于2007-2018年中国省际面板数据,运用动态系统广义矩模型(GMM),考量制度、政府救灾支出在调节自然灾害对经济增长影响方面的作用.结果表明:从全样本来看,政府救灾支出有利于增强自然灾害对经济增长的促进作用,自然灾害对经济增长的影响受制度的影响较小.分经济区域来看,政府救灾支出有利于增强自然灾害对东部和西部经济增长的促进作用,但对东北地区产生抑制作用;制度可以缓解东部自然灾害对经济增长的抑制作用,但阻碍西部自然灾害对经济增长的促进作用.进一步分析发现,救灾支出、制度在调节自然灾害对经济增长的影响时,都存在倒U型非线性关系.     

我国农业巨灾风险管理模式选择及构建对策

我国是世界上自然灾害最为严重的国家之一,灾害种类多、频度高、覆盖面广、损失巨大。联合国的统计资料表明：20世纪以来,全世界54个最严重的自然灾害事件中有8个发生在中国。据我国《减灾规划》的统计数据,近几年来,我国每年约有4．5亿亩农作物受灾,占全国农作物播种面积的1／4,每年因自然灾害导致的农业损失约为850亿元,     

我国巨灾保险制度立法刍议

日前,国务院发布了《自然灾害救助条例》,该条例将自2010年9月1日起施行。在当前自然灾害频发的情形下,此条例的出台对保障受灾群众的基本生活将发挥重要作用。条例对救灾前的准备、灾中的应急救援、过渡性安置以及灾后的恢复与重建等都作出了系统、明确的规定。但是,《自然灾害救助条例》重点是规范政府的救助行为,灾害救助特别是巨灾救助全靠政府显然不现实。据相关数据统计,中央每年安排50多亿元救助资金弥补灾害损失,但截止今年7月中旬,全     

防灾减灾资金投入体系建设

我国是世界上自然灾害最严重的少数国家之一,灾害种类多,发生频率高,分布地域广,造成损失大。受全球气候变暖和人口、财富更加聚集等因素影响,预计未来有进一步发展恶化的趋势。为有效应对自然灾害,加快构建我国新型防灾减灾体系,必须对我国目前防灾减灾资金投入领域中存在的问题,提出改革和完善的有效建议。     

农业自然灾害对通货膨胀的影响——基于动态面板的实证分析

通过将农业自然灾害作为外生冲击引入"三角"模型,建立涵盖通货膨胀惯性、超额需求和农业自然灾害外生冲击三者关系的动态面板模型进行实证分析,结果表明:就全国范围和中部地区而言,农业自然灾害对我国通货膨胀具有明显的影响,而东部和西部地区表现不显著。值得关注的是,农业自然灾害会造成当期通货膨胀水平下降,表明农业自然灾害造成的需求负向冲击大于供给负向冲击,政府相关部门应重视农业自然灾害引起的需求抑制作用。     

The impact and the contagion effect of natural disasters on sovereign credit risk. An empirical investigation

This paper investigates the relationship between natural disasters and the reaction of sovereign CDS spread in Europe. By applying an event study methodology during the period January 2007–December 2021 on an original database in which we identify 92 natural disasters in 17 European countries, we assess the reaction of the sovereign CDS market to a natural disaster. We find a heterogeneous response of the European sovereign risk to a natural disaster, as the response of the sovereign CDS market differs from region to region. The advent of a natural disaster can increase inequality between the regions due to the higher cost of credit for sovereigns and the reduced scope for manoeuvring public finances. Also, the results of the contagion effect confirm the hypothesis of a cross-border propagation effect, as natural disaster, in general, is not local event but spreads to other countries.     

Natural hazards and deposit behavior at financial institutions: A note

There have been few studies of the effect of natural disasters upon either individual economic units or financial institutions. The present paper is concerned with the question of the evidence as to the deposit experience of financial institutions following a sizeable natural disaster. The deposit data we use consist of observations from seven individual savings and loan associations and eight commercial banks in four sizeable 1970s U.S. natural disasters. Basically, there is no evidence of a run. In most cases, there is a significant increase in deposits.     

How do natural and man-made disasters affect international trade? A country-level and industry-level analysis

This study examines the influence of disasters on international trade with a gravity equation model. Four types of disasters will be introduced: natural disasters, technological disasters, political risks, and financial crises. Existing literature implies that any type of disasters can either positively or negatively associated with international trade. The effects of disasters are different across the socioeconomic status of trade pairs and across industries as well as across different types of disasters. Results from country-level and industry-level show that natural disasters reduce international trade flows by raising trading and security costs and hardening borders. In contrast to previous findings, these results show that terrorism activities and technological disasters increase the international trade particularly between developed countries. The econometric specification controls unobserved characteristics of trade pairs and endogeneity problems. Managerial implications and future research are discussed.     

Disasters to come

Disasters occur from the impact of a variety of natural and technological hazards. This paper explores the kind of disasters we can expect in the coming century, the challenges they present to human societies, and suggests a few future coping strategies. It argues that some future disasters will occur as a result of slow onset of hazards such as Global Warming or Ozone Layer Damage. Other disasters will happen more rapidly, emerging from such human actions as terrorism and resource wars. We can expect future disasters to be increasingly large in scale due to the complexity of human society and the ever growing size and density of urban regions and the built environment.     

Identification and evaluation of risk factors related to provincial food insecurity in China

Understanding the risk factors which could cause provincial food insecurity is of great importance for maintaining China’s food security. In this research, fault-tree analysis has been used to identify risk sources and corresponding risk factors, and both the ratio and growth rate analysis method and the risk coefficient method have been used to evaluate the risk profile for each province. The results showed that constrained land resources and natural disasters were the most common risk factors and agricultural machinery inputs were the least frequent risk factor across all provinces. Fertilizer inputs were no longer a risk in 16 high-yielding provinces. Among natural disaster risks, floods mainly occurred in the eastern, northeastern, central, southern, and southwestern regions, with droughts predominately located in the northern, northeastern, western, and southwestern regions. Overall, natural disasters in major grain-producing provinces were much more serious than in other provinces. Methodical construction of agricultural infrastructure and building of early warning systems for natural disasters should be proposed to reduce losses due to natural disasters and policies on fertilizer application should shift from actively encouraging more use to controlling excess application. Those provinces that now are able to fulfill their food-security mandates should shift their focus to resource and environmental sustainability.     

金融危机后我国物价水平变动与货币供应关系研究——基于外汇储备变动视角

2010年以来,我国CPI走势屡创新高,一方面这与国际大宗商品价格持续走高、自然灾害频繁发生导致的粮食减产有关,另一方面也与国外巨额流动性投放以及我国适度宽松货币政策下经济体内流动性充裕有关。本文以外汇储备变动为切入点,对国际金融危机后我国外汇储备变动和物价走势进行分析,考察发达国家量化宽松政策对我国通货膨胀产生的影响。     

救灾资金管理体制的国际经验与启示

随着自然灾害发生得越来越频繁、所造成的损失越来越大，政府也越来越重视对救灾资金的管理。救灾资金不同于普通资金，有其特殊性，构建合理有效的救灾资金管理体制成为困扰各国政府的一大难题。资金的需求是资金筹集、管理和监督的前提，本文在介绍救灾资金需求的基础上，以最近发生在其他国家的八个自然灾害为例，分析研究了他们采用的救灾资金管理体制，并结合我国现有资金管理体制存在的问题，提出了构建我国灾后救灾资金管理体制的合理建议。