Multinationals as Arbitrageurs: The Effect of Stock Market Valuations on Foreign Direct Investment

Empirical evidence of imperfect integration across world capitalmarkets suggests a role for cross-border arbitrage by multinationals.Consistent with multinational arbitrage as a determinant offoreign direct investment (FDI) patterns, we find that FDI flowsincrease sharply with source-country stock market valuations—particularlythe component of valuations that is predicted to revert thenext year, and particularly in the presence of capital accountrestrictions that limit other mechanisms of cross-country arbitrage.The results suggest the existence of a cheap financial capitalchannel in which FDI flows reflect, in part, the use of relativelylow-cost capital available to overvalued parents in the sourcecountry.     

Capital Account Openness,International Trade,and Economic Growth: A Cross-Country Empirical Investigation

New empirical estimates of the effects of capital restrictions on growth support capital account liberalization, especially for developed countries. Capital restrictions reduce the benefits of foreign direct investment (FDI) on growth in developing countries. Estimation results for long-term capital flows demonstrate that countries with higher flows grow faster, challenging the belief that countries must attain a threshold level of development or human capital to benefit from capital inflows. Moreover, findings show that trade with developed countries and FDI inflows are substitutes in developing countries. Overall, the results support capital account liberalization in developed and developing countries.     

Foreign Direct Investment and Debt Financing in Emerging Economies

The rich dynamics of capital flows is an important characteristic of business cycles in emerging market economies. In the data external debt is always procyclical, while FDI is procyclical only in normal times. We provide a microfounded rationale for this pattern by linking financial shocks to capital flows. For this purpose, we build a small open economy model in which firms are subject to borrowing constraints, and are either owned domestically or by foreign investors who purchase firms through FDI. During a financial crisis, the valuation gap per unit net worth between foreign and domestic investors widens, which triggers more FDI inflow. Our model produces business cycle moments consistent with empirical observations.     

Do GCC market-oriented labor policies encourage inward FDI flows?

In this paper, we empirically examine the impact of market-oriented labor policies on inward FDI flows to the GCC countries. The paper adopts different estimation methodologies to address endogeneity and cross-sectional dependence. Reliance on professional management reduces inward FDI flows to the UAE while linking pay to productivity reduces inward FDI flows to both Bahrain and the UAE. Trade openness and infrastructure development have a positive influence, while human capital development has a surprisingly negative influence. Evidence, therefore, does not support the view that flexible labor market policies encourage inward FDI flows to GCC countries.     

Political Stability and the Effectiveness of Currency Based Macro Prudential Measures

The use of multiple currency based macroprudential tools by Reserve Bank of India, India’s central bank, has helped create resilience in the economy, especially during financial turmoil. However, in a democratic set-up like India, the analysis of capital based macroprudential reforms needs to incorporate the political stability, as there is increasing evidence that macroprudential policy effectiveness is closely linked to political conditions. This study incorporates the role of political stability is understanding the effectiveness of currency based macroprudential policies, by using the years of election as a proxy for political uncertainty. I develop an index of capital based macroprudential policies (CMPP) using the notifications on capital flows and risk management guidelines on foreign exchange exposures from Reserve Bank of India. Using a GARCH model, the impact of CMPP on the net capital inflows is analyzed for the period from January, 1997 to March, 2018. I find that while the presence of CMPP leads to a fall in capital flow volatility, such policies in the years of election are ineffective in curbing capital flow volatility. The paper adds to the increasing evidence coming in recent years of the link between political cycles, interest groups and macroprudential policies.

     

The Impact of Central Bank Independence on Political Monetary Cycles in Advanced and Developing Nations

This paper examines the extent to which monetary policy is manipulated for political purposes during elections. We do not detect political monetary cycles in advanced countries or developing nations with independent central banks. We do find evidence, however, in developing countries that lack central bank independence. Furthermore, we find some evidence that these cycles are not caused by monetization of election-related fiscal expansions. This suggests that pressure by politicians on the central bank to exploit the Phillips curve may be an important factor in generating political monetary cycles.     

中国外汇资本流动结构对实际有效汇率影响的实证研究

实际有效汇率(REER)是衡量一国国际竞争力的重要指标,不同的资本流动结构可能会对REER产生不同影响。本文分析了两大类外汇流动和资本流动对REER的作用机制,并对中国的情况进行实证检验。结果发现,加总资本流动对人民币REER升值产生微弱的负影响,外商直接投资导致REER较为显著的升值效应,投资收益和私人部门汇款对REER的升值效应较强。在此基础上,本文建议应该继续加大引进那些高科技的外商直接投资,并积极鼓励其进口,既有助于中国国际竞争力的提高,也有助于中国经常账户的平衡;同时应尽快建立一套完善的监测体系,加强对跨境资金流动的监督管理。     

The location determinants of FDI in the GCC countries

This paper studies the location determinants of FDI flows to the GCC countries, along Dunning's [Dunning, J., 1981. International Production and the Multinational Enterprise. Allen & Unwin, London] OLI paradigm. The paper uses panel data for the period 1980–2002. Panel data model estimates show that oil potential, measured by oil reserves, and oil utilization, measured by oil production, have a surprisingly negative influence on FDI flows, contrary to expectations about positive association between GCC oil resources and FDI flows. However, the relative degree of oil utilization, measured by oil production relative to oil reserves, has a positive influence on inflows. Similar to oil potential and oil utilization, oil price has a negative influence. Estimates also show that while institutional quality, trade openness and infrastructure development encourage FDI flows, human capital significantly discourages them.     

Dynamics of Asset Prices and Transaction Activity in Illiquid Markets: the Case of Private Commercial Real Estate

This paper investigates the relationship between capital flows, turnover and returns for the UK private real estate market. We examine a number of possible implications of capital flows and turnover on capital returns testing for evidence of a price pressure effect, ‘return chasing’ behaviour and information revelation. The main tool of analysis is a panel vector autoregressive (VAR) regression model in which institutional capital flows, turnover and returns are specified as endogenous variables in a two equation system in which we also control for macro-economic variables. Data on flows, turnover and returns are obtained for the ten market segments covering the main UK commercial real estate sectors. Our results do not support the widely-held belief among practitioners that capital flows have a ‘price pressure’ effect on property prices. However, we do find a significant positive relationship between lagged turnover and contemporaneous capital returns, suggesting that asset turnover provides increased price revelation which, in turn, reduces investment risk and increases property values.     

Corporate diversification,investment efficiency and the business cycle

I document the time-varying investment efficiency of conglomerates compared with single-segment firms. I find that, during recessions, conglomerates have higher Q-sensitivity of investment than do stand-alone firms, in contrast to the relationship during expansion periods. I also find that conglomerates, with the benefits from internal capital markets, exhibit increased dependence of investment on internal capital during recessionary periods, while stand-alone firms significantly increase cash retention and deviate their investment from its optimal level more severely. I examine the effect of the degree of diversification and find consistent evidence on investment efficiency and deployment of internal capital. I also provide evidence that conglomerates with stronger governance do not improve investment efficiency during recession, which suggests that agency costs cannot fully explain the changes in investment of conglomerates.     

内外部金融周期差异如何影响中国跨境资本流动?

本文揭示了内外部金融周期差异影响跨境资本流动的机制,并以美国为外部经济代表,基于1998年第一季度至2018年第一季度数据进行了实证检验。研究发现:(1)中国跨境资本流动波动主要来自短期资本流动波动;分类看,其他投资波动较大;方向上看,流入波动要大于流出波动。(2)利差、汇差、资产价差(股指变动差异和房价变动差异)是影响跨境资本流动的重要因素,汇差和资产价差对短期资本流动影响尤甚。(3)内外部金融周期差异变动对资本流入的影响比对资本流出的影响更明显。(4)近年来,利差对跨境资本流动影响减弱,汇差和资产价差对跨境资本流动影响增强。结果说明,防范跨境资本流动风险要关注其他投资资本流动大幅波动风险,同时注意防范汇率和资产价格波动共振对跨境资本流动的冲击。     

Quantitative easing and the post-crisis surge in financial flows to developing countries

This paper examines gross financial inflows to developing countries between 2000 and 2013, with a focus on the potential effects of quantitative easing (QE) policies in the United States and other high-income countries. We find evidence for potential transmission of QE along observable liquidity, portfolio balancing, and confidence channels. Moreover, we find that QE had an additional latent effect over and above these observable channels, one that survives an array of robustness tests, retains its significance across different types of financial flows, and which cannot be attributed to changes in expectations or elasticity. Our baseline estimates place the lower bound of a QE effect at around 5 percent of gross inflows above trend, for the average developing economy, which is a magnitude comparable to a one standard deviation change along the traditional channels. We also find evidence of heterogeneity among different types of flows; portfolio (especially bond) flows tend to be more sensitive than FDI to our measured QE effects.     

十年来香港地区与大陆之间贸易与资本流动的结构性变化——基于国际收支框架的分析

近10年来,香港地区与大陆均经历了若干重大的内部变化与外部冲击,香港与大陆之间也签订了一系列CEPA协议。这些内部变化、外部冲击与制度性安排必将对两地之间的贸易与资本流动产生重大影响。本文从国际收支表框架出发,系统梳理了近10年来两地之间在商品贸易、服务贸易、FDI与证券投资等方面的资金流动趋势,并利用余额法估算了两地之间的其他跨境资本流动。结果表明,两地之间的贸易和投资在规模增长的同时也发生了一些显著的结构性变化,而其他跨境资本流动的变化则反映了两地之间可套利机会的变化。     

Dedicated REIT Mutual Fund Flows and REIT Performance

This study examines the effects of weekly and monthly capital flows into the dedicated REIT mutual fund sector on aggregate REIT returns and, simultaneously, the effects of industry-level REIT returns on subsequent REIT mutual fund flows. The dynamic relation between REIT capital flows and returns is estimated using vector autoregression (VAR) techniques. Unlike static regression techniques, our dynamic model produces estimates of the short-run relationships, long-run relationships, impulse response functions, and forecast variance decompositions. We find evidence that REIT mutual fund flows are positively and significantly related to prior returns, while prior REIT mutual fund flows do not significantly influence REIT returns. However, contemporaneous flows do appear to have an initial positive effect, which is partially reversed one period later. The positive contemporaneous effect, however, is the result of unexpected REIT mutual fund flows, while the expected portion is insignificant.     

Regulatory Arbitrage and International Bank Flows

We study whether cross‐country differences in regulations have affected international bank flows. We find strong evidence that banks have transferred funds to markets with fewer regulations. This form of regulatory arbitrage suggests there may be a destructive “race to the bottom” in global regulations, which restricts domestic regulators’ ability to limit bank risk‐taking. However, we also find that the links between regulation differences and bank flows are significantly stronger if the recipient country is a developed country with strong property rights and creditor rights. This suggests that, while differences in regulations have important influences, without a strong institutional environment, lax regulations are not enough to encourage massive capital flows.     

A theory of corporate financial decisions with liquidity and solvency concerns

This paper studies the impact of both liquidity and solvency concerns on corporate finance. I present a tractable model of a firm that optimally chooses capital structure, cash holdings, dividends, and default while facing cash flows with long-term uncertainty and short-term liquidity shocks. The model explains how changes in solvency affect liquidity and also how liquidity concerns affect solvency via capital structure choice. These interactions result in a dynamic cash policy in which cash reserves increase in profitability and are positively correlated with cash flows. The optimal dividend distributions implied by the model are smoothed relative to cash flows. I also find that liquidity concerns lead to a decrease of dispersion of credit spreads.     

An Information-Based Model of Foreign Direct Investment: The Gains from Trade Revisited

Foreign direct investment (FDI) is observed to be a predominant form of capital flows to emerging economies, especially when they are liquidity-constrained internationally during a global financial crisis. The financial aspects of FDI are the focus of this paper. We analyze the problem of channelling domestic savings into productive investment in the presence of asymmetric information between the managing owners of firms and other portfolio stakeholders. We explore the role played by FDI in reviving equity-financed capital investment for economies plagued by such information problems. In the presence of information asymmetry, the paper identifies, however, how FDI gives rise to foreign overinvestment as well as domestic undersaving. The gains from trade argument (applied to intertemporal trade) is re-examined in this case of informational-asymmetry-driven FDI. We show that the gains could be sizable when the domestic credit market is either under-developed or failing as a result of a financial crisis. But with a well-functioning domestic credit market, the gains turn into losses. Surprisingly, capital may flow into the country even when the autarkic marginal productivity of capital in the domestic economy falls short of the world rate of interest. In such a situation, capital should have efficiently flown out rather than in, and FDI is a social loss-generating phenomenon.     

International income risk-sharing and the global financial crisis of 2008–2009

We examine the impact of the global financial crisis on the degree of international income and consumption risk-sharing among industrial economies using returns on cross-border portfolio holdings (e.g., debt, equity, FDI). We split the returns from the net foreign holdings as receipts (inflows) and payments (outflows) to investigate which of the two sides exhibited the greater resilience for income risk-sharing during the recent crisis. First, we find that debt delivered better risk-sharing than equity, mainly reflecting the deficit deterioration in EMU countries during the post-crisis period. FDI, by contrast, did not correspond to noticeable risk diversification. Second, separating output shocks into positive and negative components reveals that debt holding receipts (equity liability payments) performed better under negative (positive) realizations of the shock variable. Third, the unwinding of capital flows resulted in a sharp fall in income dis-smoothing via the debt liability channel in the new EU countries.     

Capital flows and the risk-taking channel of monetary policy

Adjustments in bank leverage act as the linchpin in the monetary transmission mechanism that works through fluctuations in risk-taking. In the international context, we find evidence of monetary policy spillovers on cross-border bank capital flows and the US dollar exchange rate through the banking sector. A contractionary shock to US monetary policy leads to a decrease in cross-border banking capital flows and a decline in the leverage of international banks. Such a decrease in bank capital flows is associated with an appreciation of the US dollar.     

Measuring and explaining the volatility of capital flows to emerging countries

This paper analyzes the determinants of the volatility of the various types of capital inflows into emerging countries. After calculating a proxy of the volatility of FDI, portfolio and bank inflows, we use a panel data model to study their relationship with a broad set of explanatory variables. Our results highlight the difficulties policy-makers face in stabilizing capital flows. Thus, we show that since 2000 global factors beyond the control of emerging economies have become increasingly significant relative to country-specific drivers. However, we identify some domestic macroeconomic and financial factors that appear to reduce the volatility of certain capital flows without increasing that of others.