DotCom Mania: The Rise and Fall of Internet Stock Prices

This paper explores a model based on agents with heterogenous beliefs facing short sales restrictions, and its explanation for the rise, persistence, and eventual fall of Internet stock prices. First, we document substantial short sale restrictions for Internet stocks. Second, using data on Internet holdings and block trades, we show a link between heterogeneity and price effects for Internet stocks. Third, arguing that lockup expirations are a loosening of the short sale constraint, we document average, long‐run excess returns as low as ?33 percent for Internet stocks postlockup. We link the Internet bubble burst to the unprecedented level of lockup expirations and insider selling.     

Earnings Management in IPO Lockup and Insider Trading: Evidence from Taiwan

This paper examines the hypothesis that the timing of lockup expiration is crucial to earnings management (EM) behavior in the period after an initial public offering (IPO). Taiwan's unique two-stage lockup regulations make the Taiwanese sample an excellent candidate for examining this hypothesis. Three main results are reached. First, we find positive discretionary accruals (DAs) from the IPO quarter to the quarter after the expiration of the first-stage lockup. The DA in the quarter of the second-stage lockup expiration is significantly positive. The evidence shows that the lockup provision is key in the findings of significant EM in the IPO year and the following year. We also find a positive association between DAs in first-stage lockups and subsequent insider selling activity, indicating that insiders' selling after lockup expiration accounts for EM in the lockup period. Third, the extent of EM in first-stage lockup is negatively related to that around the IPO, consistent with the reversal nature of DAs.     

首日涨停板制度与IPO解禁效应——基于投机泡沫视角的分析

本文以2006—2016年上市的1397家公司为研究样本,实证检验了首日涨停板制度对新股解禁效应的影响。结果发现:首日涨停板制度实施期间发行的新股,解禁时有显著更差的市场表现,[-30,30]窗口期间的超额回报低至-8.43%,同时有更小的异常交易量和异常波动率;新股上市时股价高估程度越大、投资者情绪越高,首日涨停板制度对解禁效应的影响越强。上述结果支持了Hong et al.(2006)提出的“解禁与资产泡沫破灭”的理论,即首日涨停板制度导致新股发行后投机泡沫累积,投机泡沫破灭导致解禁时更大幅度的股价下跌。本文的研究结论补充了首日涨停板制度后果的文献,并对防范金融风险和完善新股市场化改革具有一定的政策参考价值。     

A logit model of retail investors' individual trading decisions and their relations to insider trades

Among the various external information sources that influence individual investors' trading decisions, no research has considered the important influence of insiders' transactions. Retail investors might copy the behavior demonstrated by insiders' trading; therefore, this study establishes an approach to estimate the buying probability for a certain stock by a certain investor at a certain point in time and analyzes whether insider trade reports influence this probability. Using a sample of more than 270,000 retail trades in Germany between 2008 and 2009, along with more than 3000 insider trades in the same period, we find evidence of copying of insiders' trades by retail investors. The basic mimicry hypothesis holds, even when we consider an information event hypothesis and an insider attention effect hypothesis as alternative explanations. A robustness test also supports the findings.     

Biomarker of Quality? Venture‐backed Biotech IPOs and Insider Participation

Corporate financial managers of biotech firms need long‐term financing to reach key milestones, and that requires a long‐ term capital structure. They must balance a mix of investors with different objectives and different investment horizons that includes traditional venture capitalists and also hedge funds and mutual funds. This study helps practitioners understand the complex role of exit decisions, as venture capitalists seek better exit strategies and performance. IPOs are financing but not “exit” moves. In addition to certifying firm value, insider purchasing of shares in the IPO offering has two major consequences. First, venture capitalists reallocate large sums of capital from early‐stage to late‐stage deals that are expected to have lower risk (but also lower expected return) and shorter time to exit. Second, the speed at which VCs exit after the IPO depends on the firm ownership structure after the IPO and the stock liquidity. Going public with a significant participation by venture capitalists will probably increase the post‐IPO ownership and decrease the free float of the stock, implying a delay of the exit and the realization of the capital gains from the investments. Although this study has focused exclusively on the biotechnology industry, insider participation is not unique to it. Biotech's venture brethren in the software and technology industries also have insider participation in IPOs. During 2003–2015, approximately 41 venture‐backed firms outside of the biotechnology sector had insider participation.     

Wealth transfer through private placements: Evidence from China

We examine private issuance of public equity (PIPE) in China, and our results suggest that PIPE investors benefit from the price manipulation before and after issuance. These investors tend to cash out after lockup expiration and make large profits. We also find evidence that the trading of PIPE investors after lockup expiration is informed. Tests about the abnormal returns in the 3 years after lockup expiration suggest that at least part of the benefits PIPE investors receive come from wealth transfer from outside investors. Overall, PIPE issuers in China seem to use an opaque mechanism to compensate PIPE investors.     

A Comparison of Reverse Leveraged Buyouts and Original Initial Public Offers: Factors Impacting their Issuance in the IPO Market

The purpose of this paper is to assess the factors that affect the returns earned by investors in early trading of reverse LBOs and compare those results to factors affecting original IPOs which are matched by size, industry, and issue date. A mean excess return of 7.64% is observed for the sample of reverse LBOs during the period 1987 to 1998. This return is uniformly lower than returns earned by investing in original IPOs. These results support the information asymmetry hypothesis. The results also show that factors such as number of months the LBO was privately held, the over‐allotment, or greenshoe option, the size of the issue, insider ownership, and gross spread impact the returns earned by investors in reverse LBOs. Other factors which are known to affect returns on original IPOs, such as lead underwriter, whether the deal was syndicated, the number of managers, the listing exchange, lockup agreements, and auditor, are shown to have no impact on the returns in reverse LBOs for the sample in question. We find that the level of insider participation and the over‐allotment option are more important to original IPOs than to reverse LBOs in explaining the excess returns earned by shareholders in early trading. We find, however, that the size of the offering has more impact on excess returns for reverse LBOs than for original IPOs.     

The Impact of Asymmetric Information on Proxy Outcomes: An Empirical Test

If a manager-shareholder is better informed about the true value of a firm's shares than outside shareholders, then the management of an undervalued firm is hypothesized to use its incumbent advantage to win proxy contests to maintain control and to benefit from share revaluations induced by the positive signal value of the contest. Using insider trades as indicators of management's beliefs, this study finds an association between insider beliefs and proxy contest outcomes. In particular, when insider trades over a five-to-six month period preceding the proxy date are net purchases, the odds in favor of management winning are significantly higher.     

Dividends and Market Signalling: an Analysis of Corporate Insider Trading

This study tests the multiple‐signal theory of dividends of John and Lang (1991) in the context of a European market. Our evidence shows that investors are more sensitive to insider trading signals than to signalled changes in existing dividends. In effect, the insider sales signal is universally understood as bad news. After controlling for the quality of a firm's investment opportunities, investors are found to penalise dividend outflows by mature firms that exhibit more informed insider sales activity. Finally, we offer an innovative exploration of the role of earnings announcements in market reaction to the dividend signal.     

Share restrictions and asset pricing: Evidence from the hedge fund industry

This paper presents evidence on the relation between hedge fund returns and restrictions imposed by funds that limit the liquidity of fund investors. The excess returns of funds with lockup restrictions are approximately 4–7% per year higher than those of nonlockup funds. The average alpha of all funds is negative or insignificant after controlling for lockups and other share restrictions. Also, a negative relation is found between share restrictions and the liquidity of the fund's portfolio. This suggests that share restrictions allow funds to efficiently manage illiquid assets, and these benefits are captured by investors as a share illiquidity premium.     

Predicting earnings in a poor information environment

Financial intermediaries, such as analysts, play an important role in providing information to investors. However, a large segment of the market (about 39% of CRSP firms between 1992 and 2009) is not served by financial analysts, leaving investors in a poor information environment. In this paper, we examine whether other publicly available information signals, such as insider trades, institutional holdings, and firms’ stock repurchases, can be used to predict information about earnings for these firms. We find that CFOs’ trading decisions are associated with new information contained in the annual earnings reports for firms with no or scant analyst coverage. In contrast, for firms with multiple analyst coverage, insider trading decisions are not predictive of new information in earnings reports. Our results suggest that some public information signals, such as insider trades, can be used to alleviate the poor information environment faced by investors. However, the market may not have fully priced the information contained in these signals.     

The Choice and Role of Lockups in IPOs: Evidence from Heterogeneous Lockup Agreements

This paper analyses heterogeneous lockup agreements from the London Stock Market. With hand‐collected data, I compare and contrast absolute‐date lockups with the relative‐date lockups and single lockups versus staggered lockups. This paper tests several potential explanations for the choice of lockup contracts: (i) information asymmetry, (ii) signaling, (iii) agency problem, and (iv) certification. I find strong evidence for information asymmetry and certification (VC and prestigious underwriters) and partial support for agency explanation for the choice of lockups. The insider selling activity and lockup expiration returns are also consistent with asymmetric information, certification and agency hypothesis.     

An Analysis of Lockups in REIT IPOs

We analyze how the unique characteristics of real estate investment trusts (REITs) affect IPO lockup agreements from 1980 to 2006. The findings show that, unlike industrial IPOs, lockup periods for REIT IPOs do not cluster at 180 days, tend to cover longer periods, and vary over time. Our results support the commitment device hypothesis instead of the signaling hypothesis. That is, REIT managers tend to use lockup agreements to alleviate moral hazard problems and protect post-IPO investors rather than to send signals to investors. Finally, contrary to previous studies, we find no significant negative abnormal returns around the unlock date for the whole sample. The lack of aggressive sales by insiders and the fact that REITs are not backed by venture capitalists can explain our finding.     

Follow-on offerings

Previous research has determined that lockup provisions essentially defer sell-offs of shares by insiders, and therefore cause a pronounced decline in share price at the time the lockup provisions expire. However, some IPOs involve follow-on offerings that may allow some insiders to sell their shares before the lockup provision has expired. Our objective is to determine how follow-on offerings alter firm value above and beyond the typical lockup effects, and whether the effects are conditioned by firm-specific variables. We find that follow-on offerings elicit an average market response of 3.21% over a three-day period surrounding the filing date. In addition, the offerings experience adverse effects as of lockup expiration that are about 3.75% worse than other IPOs, after considering other factors. Based on the share price response at the time of the follow-on offering along with the share price response at the time of lockup expiration, the cumulative effects for IPOs complemented by follow-on offerings are about 6.96% weaker than for IPOs not complemented by follow-on offerings. Overall, follow-on offerings may benefit some insiders who can circumvent the lockup expiration date, at the expense of other investors.     

Insider Selling and IPO Price Premium

We examine insider selling for initial public offering (IPO) firms using a sample of 1868 IPOs between 1988 and 2012. We find that overvalued IPOs have higher probability of offering secondary shares, higher proportion of secondary shares offered, and more upward revision in the total number of shares offered. They also have higher probability of insider sale in the open market both before and after lockup expiration. The size of insider sale in the open market also increases with the degree of overvaluation. The results are consistent with the hypothesis that IPO insiders try to sell their shares opportunistically into overvalued markets.     

Recent advances in hedge funds' performance attribution: Performance persistence and fundamental factors

We survey articles on hedge funds' performance persistence and fundamental factors from the mid-1990s to the present. For performance persistence, we present some pioneering studies that contradict previous findings that hedge funds' performance is a short term matter. We discuss recent innovative studies that examine the size, age, performance fees and other factors to give a 360° view of hedge funds' performance attribution. Small funds, younger funds and funds with high performance fees all outperform the opposite. Long lockup period funds tend to outperform short lockups and domiciled funds tend to outperform offshore funds. This is the first survey of recent innovative and challenging studies into hedge funds' performance attribution, and it should be particularly useful to investors trying to choose between hedge funds.     

Advertising investments,information asymmetry,and insider gains

Extant research has documented various sources of informational advantages enjoyed by company insiders including firm size, analyst following, dividend payout policy, book-to-market ratio, and the presence or absence of R&D investments. Surprisingly, despite this large body of work, virtually no research has investigated the contribution of advertising investments to information asymmetry. This omission is particularly glaring since: (a) advertising investments constitute a significant fraction of many firms' ongoing expenditures, and (b) the received literature provides strong theoretical arguments relating advertising investments and information asymmetry. Accordingly, the primary objective in this study is to empirically address this gap. Using advertising and insider transaction data at over 12,000 firms from 1986 to 2011, we find that insider gains are significantly greater at firms characterized by advertising investments. Specifically, a zero cost portfolio that is long on firms with net insider purchases and advertising investments, and short on firms with net insider purchases and devoid of advertising investments, garners annual abnormal returns of 5.5%. In addition, we find that investors' reaction to news of insider purchasing is significantly more pronounced at firms characterized by advertising investments — investors rationally recognize the greater information content associated with insider purchases at these firms.     

Locked Up by a Lockup: Valuing Liquidity as a Real Option

Hedge funds often impose lockups and notice periods to limit the ability of investors to withdraw capital. We model the investor's decision to withdraw capital as a real option and treat lockups and notice periods as exercise restrictions. Our methodology incorporates time-varying probabilities of hedge fund failure and optimal early exercise. We estimate a two-year lockup with a three-month notice period costs approximately 1% of the initial investment for an investor with constant relative risk aversion utility and risk aversion of three. The cost of illiquidity can easily exceed 10% if the hedge fund manager can arbitrarily suspend withdrawals.     

Financial Globalization,Governance, and the Evolution of the Home Bias

We merge portfolio theories of home bias with corporate finance theories of insider ownership to create the optimal corporate ownership theory of the home bias. The theory has two components: (1) foreign portfolio investors exhibit a large home bias against countries with poor governance because their investment is limited by high optimal ownership by insiders (the “direct effect” of poor governance) and domestic monitoring shareholders (the “indirect effect”) in response to the governance and (2) foreign direct investors from “good governance” countries have a comparative advantage as insider monitors in “poor governance” countries, so that the relative importance of foreign direct investment is negatively related to the quality of governance. Using both country‐level data on U.S. investors' foreign investment allocations and Korean firm‐level data, we find empirical evidence supporting our optimal corporate ownership theory of the home bias.     

Contracting under asymmetric information: Evidence from lockup agreements in seasoned equity offerings

We document the frequent use of lockup agreements in seasoned equity offerings (SEOs) and examine the determinants of their use, duration, and early release. We find that the likelihood of an SEO lockup and its duration are positively related to issuer information asymmetry measures. Lockup duration is negatively related to underwriter spreads and underpricing, indicating that lockups lower expected flotation costs. Lockups are frequently released early following share prices rises. We conclude that lockups represent a contracting solution to asymmetric information and agency problems that plague equity issues by helping to insure SEO quality and deter opportunistic insider trading.