货币反替代及其对中国股市的冲击

货币反替代是指在一国的经济发展过程中，居民在本币坚挺且存在升值趋势下，普遍看好本币的币值或在本币货币资产收益率明显高于外国货币资产收益率时，改变原来对外币的偏好，从而抛售外币资产，持有本币资产，使外币过分集中于中央银行的行为和现象。本文在封“热钱”的内涵进行辨析的基础土，分析货币反替代的目的和渠道，并封1990—2007年货币反替代率进行测度，进而实证检睑货币反替代封中国股市的冲击，研究发现：货币反替代规模较大、流动速度加快、反转性强；货币反替代与国内股票价格正相关，即货币反替代会推动国内股价上涨；当货币反替代出现反转时，则会引起国内股价下跌.     

中俄贸易真正实现本币结算之路才刚刚启程

中俄两国达成贸易本币结算是两国贸易的一件大事,本币结算具有支付快捷,降低外汇成本和汇率风险等方面的优势。但从目前来看,本币结算仍受到各方面的条件限制,尤其是制度方面的制约。因此,中俄贸易距离真正意义上的本币结算还有很长的路要走,本文试就这一问题做一点初浅的探讨。     

Volatility of exchange rate futures and high-low price spreads

This study explores the time-series behavior and the predictability of daily percentage changes in the Japanese Yen futures contracts. The relationship between currency futures volatility and high-low price spreads in the Japanese Yen futures contracts is examined. In addition, this study explores the issue of first- and second-order dependencies in the Japanese Yen futures contract prices changes, address the issue of asymmetric volatility, and examine the extent to which the information contained in the high-low price spreads can be used to predict future Japanese Yen currency futures contract price changes. The analysis is carried out using the EGARCH model. The volatility of the Japanese Yen currency futures price changes is adequately modeled by an EGARCH process and is predictable using information contained in the high-low price spread variables constructed in this study. This study also finds a positive and significant relationship between the spread variable and the conditional mean of price changes, suggesting that current information contained in the spread variable can be used to predict future Japanese Yen currency futures contract price changes. The hypothesis that volatility is an asymmetric function of past innovations is confirmed.     

互联网支付发展与金融风险防范——基于支付经济学视角的研究

基于支付经济学的视角,从互联网支付系统、商业银行互联网支付、第三方互联网支付和非法定数字货币四条传导路径,研究了互联网支付发展与金融风险防范之间的关系。基于指数构建的两阶段实证结果表明,互联网支付对金融风险具有显著的正向效应,且不同传导路径间存在差异性。互联网支付在为金融市场和实体经济服务的同时,客观上也产生了相应的金融风险,并为金融风险传播提供了通道。为更好地防范金融风险,应优化支付结算机制设计、建立应对系统故障和流行病冲击等的压力测试框架,以及加强对非法定数字货币的金融风险监管。     

美、欧央行监管比特币的做法及其对我国的启示

2015年12月5日,中国人民银行、银监会、证监会等五部委联合印发了《关于防范比特币风险的通知》,这对于保护社会公众的财产权益,保障人民币的法定货币地位,防范洗钱风险,维护金融稳定,具有重要的现实意义。美、欧央行对比特币的监管已先行一步,对我国具有一定的启示和借鉴。本文简要介绍了我国比特币交易情况及监管现状,归纳总结了美、欧央行监管比特币做法,提出我国应借鉴美、欧央行做法制定应急预案,防范比特币风险。     

外币报表折算方法选择的多维视角分析——从SFAS 8到SFAS 52转变的思考

外币报表折算方法的选择是争论较多的一个会计难题,从SFAS 8到SFAS 52的转变出发,从汇率理论到会计理论和决策理论进行多视角的分析,可以发现时态法和现时汇率法各自的理论上的优点和缺陷。立足现实的角度,我国的外币报表折算方法应采取更为灵活的策略。     

Alternative exchange-rate regimes: The options for Latin America

The debate on the optimal exchange-rate regime has been rekindled by the arrival of the euro and the rash of crises in Latin America and elsewhere. This paper reviews the key issues and assesses the state of play in the debate. This provides the context for the other papers in the group, prepared for a conference on “ Monetary union: Theory, EMU experience, and prospects for Latin America,” which took place in Vienna in April 2002 and which was co-sponsored by the Banco de Chile, the Oesterreichische Nationalbank, and the University of Vienna. The papers selected for this issue deal with exchange-rate problems in the Western Hemisphere, and Latin America and the Caribbean (LAC), in particular. After assessing the debate over floating rates versus currency union, the paper examines the issue in the context of monetary relations between the U.S. and Canada. It concludes with an empirical measure of convergence among the countries in the hemisphere.     

Models for the Valuation of International Convertible Bonds

This paper presents a family of three models for the valuation of international convertible bonds which are denominated in a currency different from that of the country of the issuing corporation. The first model is two-state, with the value of the underlying stock and the value of the currency of the parent country as state variables. The second model is one-state. It is derived from the first one, with the two state variables collapsed into one, listed share price times exchange rate. The third model is an extension of the second one, in that it includes the risk of devaluation of the currency of the country of the issuing corporation. One specific Euroconvertible bond, issued by the Swedish corporation SCA, is used as illustration throughout.     

数字人民币发展的机遇、挑战及政策建议

数字经济的发展,令我国数字人民币进展加快。数字人民币直接关系到货币数字化的推进及支付体系数字化的转型、国家数字金融基础设施的重构、对冲私人数字货币的影响、金融监管数字化转型的加快及人民币国际化水平的提升。发展数字人民币具有经济转型和制度保障、数字经济发展和应用场景、金融科技发展和竞争容错、高质量经济发展和超大贸易规模等机遇与优势;同时也面临市场、技术及体制约束,以及复杂国际环境的挑战。因此,我国应完善货币及金融法律制度体系、数字人民币监管体系、数字人民币技术体系、金融生态环境体系、跨境支付结算体系,加强数字货币技术与规则和国际合作体系建设。     

我国碳排放权期货产品开发研究

目前,国际碳交易市场定价权和碳计价结算货币主导权的缺失成为我国无论是在政府层面、学术领域还是实践方面,都是倍感担忧的问题。争夺碳交易定价权与推进人民币国际化有着重要的联系,两者之间可以构建一个重要的国家金融战略予以实施,其中适时推出CERs期货是该战略的重心。本文通过比较分析国外CERs期货合约设计的异同点及其对交易运行的影响,结合我国实际和市场特点,探讨了中国CERs标准期货合约的设计,并提出了我国发展碳排放权期货的战略目标、路径选择和政策建议。     

On the relation between currency and banking crises in developing countries, 1980–2010

This paper investigates the relationship between the occurrence of currency and banking crises using high-frequency data for a sample of 94 countries during 1980–2010. The two types of crises are proxied by continuous, multi-categorical and dummy variables based on market pressure indexes, and a dummy variable from the Laeven–Valencia banking crises database. Results suggest that a bidirectional leading relationship exists between the two types of crises. However, banking crises do not lead currency crises robustly when banking crises are proxied by dummies based on market pressure indexes. Finally, currency crises have robust state dependence, but this is not the case for banking crises.     

欧元对我国金融市场的影响分析

欧元从最初构想到进入正式流通历经坎坷,终于成功统一了欧洲多国的货币。在过去半个世纪中,国内、外学者提出并发展了关于最优货币区、国际货币体系改革和金融市场一体化等方面的多项理论,欧元的出现为这些理论提供了一个绝佳的验证机会。文章旨在研究欧元诞生后对国际金融市场以及对我国金融市场的影响。     

Second Generation Models of Currency Crises

Until the beginning of the 1990s, currency crises were typically analyzed within the framework of a generation of models that assumed that the foreign exchange reserves of a country that was running a fixed exchange rate policy were falling (because the government was running a deficit on its budget that was financed by printing money). When the foreign exchange reserves reached a lower bound, a speculative attack on the fixed exchange rate was launched. Today, this theory is no longer the benchmark when explaining the occurrence of a currency crisis. Actually, a new generation of models that seeks to take explicitly into account the costs and benefits associated with the maintenance of a fixed exchange rate has emerged. This paper surveys these 'second generation models of currency crises'. This generation of models emphasizes that it is an endogenous decision if a government chooses to abandon a policy of fixed exchange rates. The survey pays special attention to the fact that the second generation of currency crises models often generates multiple equilibria for the rate of devaluation given one state of the economic fundamentals. A currency crisis can thus occur even if no secular trend in economic fundamentals can be identified, as in recent currency crises.     

浅谈事业单位国有资产的管理

近年来,随着经济社会的不断发展,事业单位国有资产总量也在不断上升。国有资产管理,尤其是事业单位的国有资产管理,已经成为公权行使、人民对政府信任度的一个重大政治经济问题。本文提出我国事业单位国有资产管理的现状及存在的问题,并对改革完善事业性国有资产管理体制提出一些对策建议。     

Implied volatility term structure and exchange rate predictability

This paper provides empirical evidence of the predictive power of the currency implied volatility term structure (IVTS) for the behavior of the exchange rate from both cross-sectional and time series perspectives. Intriguingly, the direction of the prediction is not the same for developed and emerging markets. For developed markets, a high slope means low future returns, while for emerging markets it means high future returns. We analyze predictability from a cross-sectional perspective by building portfolios based on the slope of the term structure, and thus present a new currency trading strategy. For developed (emerging) currencies, we buy (sell) the two currencies with the lowest slopes and sell (buy) the two with the highest slopes. The proposed strategy performs better than common currency strategies – carry trade, risk reversal, and volatility risk premium (VRP) – based on the Sharpe ratio, considering only currency returns, which supports the exchange rate predictability of the IVTS from a cross-sectional perspective.     

试论电子支付的立法完善

电子商务的一个重要问题是确保网络交易支付的安全性、有效性。保障电子支付活动的安全既是一个技术问题,更是一个法律问题。当前我国电子支付的立法严重滞后于金融电子化的步伐,研究和参照国际相关立法,完善我国该领域的法律规定已迫在眉睫。鉴于此,文中对此进行了探讨。     

Rights Issues in the Chinese Stock Market: Evidence of Earnings Management

Using 665 rights offerings of Chinese firms, we demonstrate positive but diminishing price effects of successive announcements at the board meeting, the shareholders' meeting, the prospectus release date, and the ex‐rights date, but negative abnormal returns before the ex‐rights date. Public investors value the participation from shareholders of state and legal‐person shares in the rights offerings, which seem to be linked to the future firm performance. The results overall supports the hypothesis that Chinese company earnings are considerably manipulated in the rights issue process.     

The legal implications of workplace smoking policies

Smoking in the workplace has become a difficult and complex legal issue. Both smoking and nonsmoking employees have used various legal bases in their attempts to enforce their rights. An analysis of the reported legal decisions indicates that the trend is in favor of limiting the rights of smokers. As nonsmokers become more aggressive in their demands for a smoke-free environment, it will become increasingly important for employers to be well apprised of the legal implications associated with smoking in the workplace.     

中美购买力评价分析与中国汇率制度的调整——基于2005年7月汇率改革以来的实证分析

自2004年以来,西方国家基于购买力平价理论,纷纷对我国施加压力,要求人民币升值,以减轻本国的贸易赤字。他们通过比较人民币与其本国货币的购买力水平后发现,我国货币汇率严重低估。文章拟通过分析2005年汇率改革以后购买力平价理论在我国的适用性,说明购买力平价理论在我国缺乏实用性以及我国汇率形成制度的缺陷,并提出完善人民币汇率形成机制的方向和途径。     

The Coal Mine Mafia of India: A Mirror of Corporate Power

An investigation of the source of power of mafia‐type organizations may reveal how other non‐state actors can operate as if they are independent of the state. This study of the coal mafia in Dhanbad, India shows that power often derives from socially hierarchical relationships involving debt and/or caste. It also demonstrates how state policies that are thoughtlessly implemented may solidify existing hierarchies. By analogy, modern corporations gain some of their power by behaving as if they were semi‐sovereign institutions that draw their strength informally from social networks and other extralegal relationships. The mafia in the Dhanbad coalfields emerged through a series of institutional changes. Labor shortages were initially resolved by labor intermediaries, who eventually controlled the labor through linkages associated with debt, caste, and social obligations. These intermediaries eventually assumed official positions in labor unions, which gave them a platform for electoral politics. When the coal industry was nationalized, the union leaders further solidified their position in the nationalized corporation. In this way, private labor intermediaries became local political leaders who controlled the state apparatus to some extent. Corporations follow similar patterns. Both mafias and corporations exploit weak governments, collude with them, and often operate with a high degree of independence. Like mafias, corporations often derive their power from socially embedded networks that they craft in local communities and populations. Because the roots of their influence are embedded in social networks, simple legal and regulatory changes are often insufficient to limit their power. Transnational corporations engaged in extraction of natural resources share with mafias the ability to leverage monopoly power in one domain into control of other domains. As a result, this case study of the coal mafia in India offers a unique entry point to understand corporate sovereignty.