Housing Supply,Demand and Price: Construction Cost,Rental Price and House Price Indices

Housing prices are subject to the impacts of supply as well as demand. While supply is affected by construction costs, demand is determined by the renting/buying considerations of the public. As a result, the construction cost index (CCI) on the supply side and the rental price index (RPI) on the demand side should be closely related to the house price index (HPI). The present study adopts three price indices of the Taiwan housing market, the CCI, the RPI and the HPI, and examines long‐term and short‐term correlations among the three indices. Empirical results indicate that the relationships among three indices are nonlinear. More interestingly, this article finds that the HPI stimulates changes in the CCI and the RPI, although construction costs and rent are viewed as fundamentals in the existing literature. This phenomenon is rather obvious when deviations of the latter two indices from the HPI are greater. The corrective behavior of the HPI is more notable under these circumstances.     

The aggregate supply of output and a constant price level

Summary When they are treating the case of an economy operating at less than full employment macro theorists commonly assume that the aggregate supply function for output is perfectly elastic with respect to the price level. In this paper we demonstrate that an aggregate supply of output which is perfectly elastic at some price level cannot be derived from the interaction of the demand for and supply of labor in a competitive market even when the labor supply conditions are Keynesian in nature - e.g., rigid money wage rates.     

Unemployment Dynamics, and Propagation of Aggregate and Reallocation Shocks in the Netherlands

This paper models the propagation at the macro level of four types of shocks using the SVAR approach. Time series data for the Netherlands on job creation, job destruction, the number of vacancies and labour supply are used to identify aggregate demand and supply shocks, and reallocation demand and supply shocks as different sources of unemployment dynamics. Each of these four types of shocks appears to have at least some influence on unemployment both in the short and long run. The long run influence of the aggregate labour supply shock is estimated to be very limited. It indicates that additional labour supply is almost fully absorbed by labour demand in the long run.     

基于风险偏好及补偿的闭环供应链回购契约应急协调

针对由一个制造商和一个零售商组成的闭环供应链,在随机市场需求下,假设制造商风险中性,零售商风险偏好,采用补偿策略和回购契约可以实现闭环供应链的协调。然而突发事件发生造成零售商面临的需求分布变化时,闭环供应链的销售活动将受到影响,闭环供应链的协调将被打破;但是闭环供应链的废旧品回收活动却不受突发事件的影响。为此,给出了闭环供应链对突发事件的最优应对策略,并调整了原来的回购契约使其能协调应对突发事件。最后,运用数值实验对模型进行了验证。     

Imperfect competition,technical progress and capital accumulation

This paper constructs a dynamic equilibrium growth model, in which some firms act as monopsonies on the labor market. The framework is an overlapping generations growth model with altruistic agents. Two types of firms exist, competitive and non‐competitive, the latter being endowed with a more productive technology. They behave strategically on the labor market, in taking into account the impact of their demand for labor on the equilibrium wage and on their profit. In this framework, the impact of technical progress on capital accumulation can be positive or negative, depending on its effect on monopsony power.     

Relative deprivation,time preference,and economic growth

We study the growth process among a large group of economies where consumption relative to a reference group determines the discount factor of the household agents. We characterize all possible balanced growth paths and their stability properties. The model can explain why two economies having similar production technologies, preferences, and total factor productivity growth rates can differ in labor supply behavior and have diverging growth paths depending on their initial conditions. Numerical analysis of the model suggests that growth path divergence is plausible based on cross-country differences in savings rates. History dependence on time preference also generates realistic transitional dynamics.     

需求波动下众包物流平台动态定价策略

以平台利润最大化为目标,构建在不同供需条件下的众包物流平台动态定价模型,求得最优动态价格解以及激励系数和惩罚系数对于市场需求和最优价格等的影响.研究表明:众包物流平台的最优价格会发生动态变化,它主要受时间和市场需求波动的影响,也受激励系数和惩罚系数的影响;尤其是配送高峰期时,最优动态价格和市场需求也显著受到配送人员激励系数和惩罚系数的影响.     

The problems of labor supply and labor demand adjustment on the Russian labor market

This paper considers problems and specifics of labor demand and supply relations in the Russian labor market; it identifies and analyzes the underlying factors. It discusses the possibilities of inclusion in the analysis of structural characteristics of labor demand and supply and the dynamics of wages in the process of their conciliation in the Russian labor market, and it presents estimates of its basic parameters.     

创新链视角下的绿色技术创新机制分析

绿色技术创新是实现经济和环境和谐发展的前提,由于其独特的生态属性,绿色技术创新的创新链条更为错综复杂。在梳理基本概念及创新链的构成之后,分别对均衡视角下的供需机制和价值视角下的研发机制、成果转化机制进行深入分析,研究结论表明,绿色技术的核心问题是市场供给与市场需求不均衡,政府应充分发挥引领者的作用,努力降低外部性,带动企业及社会公众营造良好的绿色技术创新环境。     

浅析供应链条件下的准时制采购

准时制采购作为供应链管理中的重要内容之一,是在供应链环境下产生的一种新型的采购模式。实现准时化采购战略,可以提高供应链对市场需求的响应速度,构筑整个供应链及各个节点企业的核心竞争力。本文通过准时制采购与传统采购的比较,以及准时制采购的实施条件分析,浅析了供应链条件下的准时制采购。     

我国建立炼焦煤期货市场的可行性研究

我国是世界第一产煤大国,也是煤炭消费的大国。从我国煤炭产量、消耗量、运输量及进出口情况看,近年来我国煤炭供需形势一度趋紧,煤炭价格波动较大,煤炭交易双方都有规避风险的需求。文章认为,炼焦煤作为现阶段我国市场化程度较高的煤种,从其储量、生产市场、需求市场、企业集中度和价格走势来看,已经具备了上市期货的基本条件。作为炼焦煤一焦炭一钢铁产业链中的首要一环,考虑推出煤炭期货,对于该产业链的金融化发展有很重要的现实意义。     

Entry in Foreign Markets under Asymmetric Information and Demand Uncertainty

This paper examines the mode of entry of a multinational firm that has less information about the host market stochastic demand than the local firm. The foreign firm can enter the market either through direct investment or exports. Each entry mode entails different costs and has different informational implications. Entry through foreign direct investment (FDI) is favored by greater variability in demand. Interestingly enough, strategic behavior by the incumbent firm, which deviates from its first period monopoly output, might be aimed at increasing the probability of foreign entry through FDI despite having to compete against an equally informed and efficient entrant; this never happens in a symmetric information environment. Such host firm behavior is aimed at reducing the strategic uncertainty derived from the foreign firm's beliefs. Compared with the symmetric information setting, entry via direct investment may occur in more cases.     

Saving,investment, growth and the cost of financial repression

This paper presents a quantitative estimate of the cost of financial repression in developing countries. Here, financial repression is interpreted as the technique of holding institutional interest rates (particularly deposit rates of interest) below their market equilibrium levels. For a sample of developing countries, saving is found to be affected positively by the real deposit rate of interest, as is real money demand, where money is defined broadly to include savings and time deposits. Under disequilibrium interest rate conditions, higher saving which raises real money demand increases pari passu the real supply of credit. Credit availability is an important determinant not only of new investment but also of capacity utilization of the entire capital stock. Hence, the growth rate is itself affected positively by the real deposit rate of interest through two channels – first, the volume of saving and investment and, second, capacity utilization of the entire capital stock, i.e. the measured incremental capital/output ratio. Estimates of saving and growth functions lead to the conclusion that the cost of financial repression appears to be around half a percetage point in economic growth foregone for every one percentage point by which the real deposit rate of interest is set below its market equilibrium rate.     

Black markets: Illegality, information, and rents

The analysis of black markets typically treats illegality only in reduced form as an additional cost per transaction. We argue that this misses the essential feature of black markets: that the risk of detection depends upon the dissemination of information. Because the cost of information is increased, traders will change marketing technology from advertising to sequential approaches to potential customers. The trader's decision problem is his offer price: as he raises it he must expect to make more approaches per sale and thereby increase detection risk. This behavior is important because of its implications at the market level. The optimal offer price will be set at a level at which excess demand persists: would-be consumers are not always able to bid themselves into supplies. Hence, black markets are not sufficient to eliminate the shortages which arise from price controls. In an earlier paper the authors established that peasant supply response to crop prices would be perverse in the presence of shortages: black markets therefore need not restore normal responses. The paper includes evidence from rural Tanzania.     

民间金融兴盛的制度供求分析——以上海钱庄为例

本文运用新制度经济学供求理论分析,指出上海钱庄兴盛的原因是:在需求诱致型金融制度环境中,由旅沪宁绍帮为主的商帮作为初级行动团体,上海钱业公会作为次级行动团体,二者共同进行适应商业习惯制度创新的结果。     

The liquidity trap: Japan, 1996–2001 versus the United States, 1933–1940

Keynes’ “liquidity trap” rarely occurs. But when it does, it has a tremendously adverse effect on the economy concerned. Such was the case of the United States in the 1930s and now that of contemporary Japan. In a liquidity trap, monetary policy pushes the money interest rate to the zero level while expanding the money supply (M1) at a faster rate than nominal GDP. Conventional theory explains this phenomenon as the result of money demand that becomes infinitely interest-elastic at the zero rate, rendering ineffective the rapidly expanding money supply established by the monetary authorities.In this paper, we show that the liquidity trap is a multifaceted phenomenon not limited to the money market. It involves the bank loan market, the bank deposit market, and the bond market interacting together. Of these, the most important is the bank loan market and the least important is the bank deposit market, whose deposit supply becomes horizontal at the zero rate. They are met by relatively interest-inelastic bank loan demand and bank deposit demand. Hence, the causality is completely reversed from the conventional understanding.We give empirical evidence in support of our theory based on data from the United States, 1933–1940 and Japan, 1996–2001. Far apart in time and space, the two cases are remarkably alike and, hence, provide strong supporting evidence.     

Reflections on the nature and policy implications of planning restrictions on housing supply. Discussion of 'Planning policy, planning practice, and housing supply' by Kate Barker

Planning is about other things as well, but it is fundamentallyan economic activity. It allocates a scarce resource but independentlyof prices or any market information. In analysing the effectsthis allocative mechanism has on housing supply (or, indeed,the supply of buildings for any given use), we need to thinkcarefully about what exactly it is that planning allocates andwhether, in its operation, it creates a constraint on the supplyof what it is allocating. In the British case, our planningsystem does not operate on the supply of housing directly, butindirectly via the constraint imposed on land supply. Giventhe income elasticity of demand for space this has policy implicationsperhaps even more serious than is acknowledged by Barker.     

论中国石化产品市场分析方法

文章论述了中国石化产品市场分析方法和市场的中国特色。分析方法分三个层面：供需分析、市场分析和竞争力分析。供需分析主要论述了供应和需求两个方面如何分析,重点讨论了需求的结构分析和供需分析的核心工具一供需平衡表的应用。市场分析分为宏观层面和微观层面。宏观层面论述了宏观经济、政府政策和行业趋势三个因素;微观层面讨论了新增产能、价格变化、替代品、营销模式和突发事件五个因素。竞争力分析从企业战略层面分析产品的竞争力,讨论了成本和技．术两个因素。最后探讨了中国石化产品市场有中国特色的三个特点：现货市场、国营特色和进口产品的两面性。     

Credit Conditions in Pakistan: Supply Constraints or Demand Deficiencies?

This paper attempts to pin down the key drivers of demand for and supply of real private sector credit in Pakistan. I use both the equilibrium and disequilibrium econometric frameworks, specifically tackling the issue of lack of consistency and/or efficiency of joint estimators in the former via the three‐stage least squares technique. On the demand side, I find that higher economic activity provides stimulus to credit whereas inflation dampens it. The stock market seems to play a dual role: as a source of alternative financing, a bullish market negatively impacts credit while, as an indicator of economic expectations, it provides a positive impetus. On the supply side, banks' lending capacity is found to be the major driver of credit while government borrowing has a crowding‐out effect. Pakistan currently faces supply constraints, which might put an additional check on capacity utilization by firms, thus damaging growth prospects. The results have important policy implications.     

Development of land turnover in Russia

The paper elucidates the problems of market land turnover in the Russian Federation. It analyzes the dynamics of the main types of transactions and areas involved into them at the land market of the country. The differentiation in the prices for state and municipal lands depending on the factors influencing land supply and demand is determined. The special attention is given to lands with agricultural destination.