工业机器人应用对制造业就业的影响--基于中国地级市数据的实证研究

利用2013-2017年中国286个地级市的面板数据实证研究发现,工业机器人应用对中国制造业就业总量存在显著的负影响,工业机器人渗透度提升1单位将导致制造业就业总量下降3.35个百分点。针对影响制造业就业结构的实证研究发现,工业机器人应用对东部、西部地区有显著的负影响,对中部和东北地区的影响不显著,对制造业细分行业、低技能劳动者和男、女劳动者就业均存在普遍的负影响,对高技能劳动者就业存在正向影响,但不显著。深入研究后发现,工业机器人替代不是导致制造业就业下降的根本原因,而是对制造业就业岗位的补充与延伸。政府在制定针对智能制造的产业政策时,应根据地方制造业劳动供给与企业生产需求进行灵活安排。     

Employment and Earnings: A Case Study of Urban Detroit

This paper investigates the roles of manufacturing employment, neighborhood poverty, and family structure in determining wages among Detroit, MI workers, just prior to the current economic crisis. Employment in manufacturing has been crucial for blacks and whites: 39% of black and of white men in the Detroit metropolitan area worked in manufacturing in 2000. Regression analysis in this paper estimates employment in manufacturing raised wages 15.8% for all workers in the metropolitan area, 24.4% for blacks and 13.8% for whites. It finds a higher wage penalty (4.7%) for blacks in non-manufacturing industries than is found when manufacturing sector jobs are included (2.6%). Wage returns to education were greater in the non-manufacturing employment sector, especially for blacks. Residence in the poorest central city neighborhoods reduced wages significantly for white manufacturing and non-manufacturing workers. Its coefficient was insignificant for black workers. Gender and marital status effects on wages differed between blacks and whites in magnitude: White women suffered a larger penalty for their sex than black women (22.6 versus 9.6%) yet black men enjoyed a greater return to marriage than white men (27.5 versus 25.0%). Controlling for manufacturing reduced the gender wage gap and the returns to marriage for men. These findings suggest greater accessibility for women; and lower returns to marriage in non-manufacturing sectors. Among employed blacks access to manufacturing jobs has been their main source of decent wages. The adverse effects of the industry??s job loss in the 1980s and 1990s impacted all Detroit residents. Other high wage industries have employed relatively few blacks, have not paid them well; and have suffered job loss and slow growth over the period. Education could have raised wages for non-manufacturing workers, but not as much as access to manufacturing jobs. Today as in 2000, Detroit??s residents desperately need job creation or relocation to the central city; and job training and anti-discrimination policy enforcement throughout the metro-area. All of these would be necessary to offset job loss and reduce inequality and poverty in Detroit. The extent to which blacks will benefit from 2010?C11 improvements in manufacturing employment in Detroit depends upon whether private companies and the state provide equal access to the jobs and the training new technologies require.     

Robotics technology and firm-level employment adjustment in Japan

Unlike studies that analyze the impact of robotics technology on overall employment at the industry or firm level, this study investigated cross-division employment adjustment within a firm in an industry with greater diffusion and penetration of robotics technology. By examining changes in the composition of employment, we measured job creation and destruction at the division level and explored whether robotics technology, as a leading example of automation, not only displaces workers but also introduces new jobs in favor of labor. We made use of unique, division-level employment data for Japan’s manufacturing firms, together with industry-level data on the installation of industrial robots. We found that industry-level adoption of robots positively affects the firm-level job creation rate and the job destruction rate. Because the magnitude of the impact is larger for job destruction, robot adoption has an overall negative impact on firms’ net employment growth. Our findings suggest that the labor displacement effect of robotics technology and the emergence of new jobs due to technological change coexist even at the firm level.     

中国制造业就业增长的反向变动趋势

本文试图考察在我国技术进步偏向资本增加情况下,资本深化对劳动密集型、资本密集型和技术密集型制造业就业增长的反向作用。鉴于我国技术进步具有要素偏向性,本文在构建理论模型时加入有偏技术进步假设,发现在技术进步偏向资本要素投入的条件下,资本深化会加深对就业的负向冲击。并利用wind数据库公布的中国制造业2383家上市企业2007-2018年数据,从横向和纵向两个维度验证了这点,结果发现:(1)在技术进步偏向资本要素投入时,资本劳动比增长率提高会降低整个制造业的就业增长率,技术进步吞噬就业。但是,资本深化对劳动密集型与资本密集型、技术密集型的就业增长作用呈反向趋势。(2)自供给侧结构性改革提出后,该反向变动趋势加强。这意味着,在技术进步和制造业深度融合过程中,劳动者需不断提高自身技能,提高就业竞争力;企业和政府配合提供培训支持,防止工人由于技能不匹配而导致大规模的结构性失业。     

China,Like the US,Faces Challenges in Achieving Inclusive Growth through Manufacturing

For more than three decades the goal of becoming “the factory of the world” has been at the core of China's development strategy. This strategy, in combination with high rates of domestic investment and low rates of consumption, has made Chinese production the most manufacturing intensive in the world. But as its wages have risen, China's competitiveness in the most labor‐intensive manufacturing industries has eroded. Its ability to assemble products remains a major source of its exports, but it has also tried to shift toward more sophisticated value‐added production domestically. Chinese domestic spending has shifted away from investment toward consumption as citizens' income has grown. Like Americans, Chinese are also spending more on services than on manufactured goods. All of these changes are fundamentally altering the structure of China's production, reducing the role of manufacturing and increasing the skill levels of workers in manufacturing. This paper reviews the challenges posed by these developments for China's long‐term goal of achieving more inclusive growth. It presents evidence that the commonly held perceptions that Chinese manufacturing employment growth is robust are wrong. In fact, such growth has peaked and China is now following a pattern of structural change that is typical of a more mature emerging economy, in which the share of employment in manufacturing declines as workers are increasingly employed in services.     

Productivity analysis of IT capital stock: The USA–Japan comparison

The purpose of this paper is twofold: The first is to examine the information technology (IT) capital investments (including software) and capital stock of the USA and Japan, not merely in the 1990s but from the long-run historical viewpoint and compare the process of IT Revolution of the two countries, using the data from 1974 to 1998. The second is to check how those investments are justifiable, by calculating the marginal benefits and costs of IT related investments in the USA and Japan. We find that while the USA shows a tendency to overinvest in IT capital relative to non-IT capital throughout the observation period, the opposite is the case in Japan.     

China's Software Industry: Moving on the Fast Track

China is poised to establish itself not only as a global manufacturing centre, but also aims to become a world centre for the information technology (IT) products within the next decade. This paper looks at China's software industry in particular, which has traditionally been neglected, and still accounts for only a minuscule share of the world software market. With empirical evidence, the paper shows that while China still faces major obstacles to the growth of its software industry, such as rampant piracy, shortage of professionals and strong external competition, it has been moving fast to bolster the industry in the post-WTO era. China has also a long way to go before catching up with its neighbouring IT giant, India. The paper concludes that China should capitalize on its own strengths, generated by a strong domestic demand, increasing pool of software professionals, including returnees from abroad, and capability to develop Chinese language-based software platform.     

The demographics of trade-affected services and manufacturing workers (1987–1990): A comparative analysis

Using input-output data for 1987 and 1990, this study identifies the demographic characteristics of trade-affected workers in U.S. manufacturing and service industries. Trade-affected workers are defined as employees in industries that experienced a change (positive or negative) in net total (direct and indirect) trade-related employment between 1987 and 1990. For the period 1987–1990, three industry categories were examined: (a) industries that experienced an increase in positive net trade-related employment; (b) industries that experienced a decline in positive net trade-related employment; and (c) industries that suffered net trade-related employment losses in both years yet experienced an improvement over the period. The study finds that, while manufacturing industry workers in the most favorably affected industry group (i.e., group “a”) were more likely to be highly skilled (i.e., scientists & engineers), highly educated (i.e., over four years of college education), unionized, married and white males, corresponding service sector workers were predominantly unskilled (laborers), less educated, non-unionized, young (i.e., aged 16–24) and male (black and white). Furthermore, the service sector was associated with greater mean trade-related employment and output gains and lower mean employment and output losses than was the manufacturing sector. This is a revised version of a paper presented at the Western Economic Association Internationale 69th Annual Conference, Vancouver, British Columbia.     

Is There a Link Between Casual Employment and Export-Orientation of Firms? The Case of Kenya’s Manufacturing Sector

Empirical evidence on the link between trade and employment outcomes in Africa is severely limited. The paper analyses employment outcomes, that is, the rise in casual employment in Kenya’s manufacturing sector in relation to firms’ export orientation. While exporting firms generally account for a higher proportion of employment in the manufacturing sector, the proportion of workers in exporting firms declined by over 20% between the early 1990s and 2003. On the other hand, the proportion of casual workers employed in manufacturing firms increased over the same period. However, the empirical results show no strong evidence of “exporting” significantly influencing the proportion of casual workers employed by firms. The combination of an increasingly skilled labour force in Kenya and deepening casualisation among workers points to a conundrum that requires further analysis. That notwithstanding, the results suggest a need for policy focus not only on job creation, but also on the quality of jobs created.     

FDI对我国制造业升级的影响研究——基于省级面板数据的实证

当前FDI流入我国增速已经放缓;然而,FDI流入高技术制造业的比重却正在提高。FDI流向正在发生的深刻变化将对我国制造业升级产生深远影响。在FDI流入总量及流向正发生深刻变化的新条件下,探讨如何更加合理有效地利用FDI,促推我国制造业升级,正成为急需探讨的新课题。本文运用1996~2014年中国省级面板数据,通过构建FGLS模型,对FDI影响制造业升级的效应进行了实证检验,结果表明：从全国层面来看,FDI对劳动密集型与技术密集型制造业发展都有明显的促推作用;而对资本密集型制造业的发展则存在较为明显的负向影响。从分地区层面来看,FDI促进了劳动密集型制造业从东部向中部地区转移,资本密集型制造业由东部向中、西部地区转移;此外,FDI还促进了东部地区技术密集型制造业占比提高。但是,FDI在西部对制造业的投资方向过于单一,主要集中于资本密集型制造业,这对我国西部地区制造业的长期发展不利。因而,要顺应FDI新变化,发挥政府宏观调控作用,更加合理、有效地利用好FDI。     

IMPACT OF COMMUNIST PARTIES ON THE INDIVIDUAL DECISION TO JOIN A TRADE UNION: EVIDENCE FROM INDIA

This paper analyzes the impact on individual decisions to unionize of several factors: the reach of communist parties, the degree of political activism, personal attributes of workers, and industrial characteristics. The workers examined are Indian nonagricultural regular workers, using micro-data from the 2004–5 Employment and Unemployment Survey conducted by the National Sample Survey Organisation, linked to state-level factors. A notable result is that the reach of communist parties has considerable effect on unionization probability. Moreover, it seems that the mere existence of communist parties in a state also facilitates unionization to some extent. State-level political activism and unemployment rate also influence the individual decision to join a union. The paper concludes also that a worker's gender, marital status, ethnic background, employment status, experience, occupation, sector of employment, establishment size, and type of industry remain important in the determination of union membership.     

An analysis of the impact of the first phase of South Africa's motor industry development programme (midp), 1995–2000

The South African motor vehicle industry is an important branch of the local manufacturing sector, contributing significantly to manufacturing value added and employment. Over the last decade, the local industry has undergone a series of policy reforms, and in recent years has increasingly been exposed to globalisation. This article reviews the role of government policy in shaping the industry, and examines the impact of the first phase of the Motor Industry Development Programme on the industry for the period 1995–2000 in respect of domestic production, automotive industry employment, export performance and the automotive trade balance. The article concludes that even though the industry registered strong export growth that contributed to improving the automotive trade deficit, it was deficient in sustaining domestic production and employment levels. The imminent challenge for the local industry's development is to maintain its export growth trajectory in the long term in the absence of costly government protective incentive mechanisms.     

光刻设备知识产权战略研究

我国高端集成电路(IC)产业严重受限于落后的光刻制造装备技术和产业,2016年进口约2 271亿美元,制约了我国电子信息产业的升级,成为重大的国家安全隐患。习近平主席说"实践反复告诉我们,关键核心技术是要不来、买不来、讨不来的",2008年以来我国启动科技重大专项"极大規模集成电路制造装备及成套工艺"(02专项),展开IC光刻制造装备及工艺关健技术攻关。通过对国际上先进光刻设备制造企业知识产权战略研究,调研其专利形成的关键技术模块,寻找我国光刻制造业研发的潜在技术入口,提高创新起点,引导研发活动向具有自主创新的目标,集中力量在光刻机国际前沿技术上有所突破,创造更多的自主知识产权。     

The causal effects of exporting on domestic workers: A firm-level analysis using Japanese data

Japan has experienced rapid growth of non-regular workers under globalization in the 2000s. This study seeks to identify the causal effects of exporting on the changes in the share of non-regular workers and the growth of worker-hours (employment times working-hours) in Japanese manufacturing and wholesale sectors using extensive firm-level data. I employ a propensity score matching technique and investigate whether firms that start exporting experience higher increase in the share of non-regular workers and higher growth of worker-hours than do non-exporters. First, I find positive effects on the growth of worker-hours in manufacturing but not in wholesale. Second, contrary to public fears, I find little evidence that exporting results in the increase in the share of non-regular workers in both manufacturing and wholesale.     

Women's work and structural change: occupational structure in eighteenth‐century Spain

This article uses the declarations of householders in the Cadaster of Ensenada (1750–5) to calculate labour participation rates for women and men from 22 localities in inland Spain. The article establishes the actual levels of women's market activity, which are much higher than commonly assumed. This unique source also makes it possible to analyse the region's occupational structure. Due to the labour‐intensive character of manufacturing work, the abundant supply of cheap labour, the diffusion of cottage industries, and the demand for commodities from internal and colonial markets, a large portion of the region's population worked in manufactures in the eighteenth century. This finding challenges standard interpretations of the Spanish economy at this time as mostly agricultural, which rely on sources that exclude women workers. Most workers in the manufacturing sector were women, and their market activity was concentrated in textile manufacturing. Once women are included in the analyses, the industrial share of employment follows a U‐shaped trajectory from the eighteenth century to the twentieth century. The article concludes that the standard interpretation of structural change, based solely on empirical evidence for male workers, gives a misleading picture of when, where, why, and how structural change occurred.     

Tariff‐jumping foreign direct investment in protectionist era Ireland

The Committee on Industrial Organisation was established in the early 1960s to evaluate the level of preparedness of Irish industry for the imminent dismantling of the country's protectionist trade barriers. The Committee's sectoral reports list the 900 or so manufacturing firms that it surveyed and that together accounted for more than half of Irish manufacturing employment. From a range of archival sources, this article identifies the nationality of ownership of most of these firms, alongside their date of establishment and level of employment in 1960. Industrial grants data are used to strip out export‐oriented businesses that began to arrive in the 1950s. This makes it possible to estimate the employment share and sectoral presence of tariff‐jumping foreign firms. The latter is analysed through the lens of modern perspectives on foreign direct investment. The article also enhances our understanding of the interest‐group politics of the trade liberalization process.     

Trends,Countertrends, and Gaps in Women's Employment

The factors driving global integration, namely, trade expansion, technological change, and the internationalization of production have altered production patterns and changed the composition of output in both developed and developing countries. As global patterns and modes of production have changed there has been a general shift away from agriculture toward industry and services. Along with these output changes have come significant changes in regional and national employment. In developing and developed countries, these changes span divergent trends. On the one hand, there is the increased availability of more and better quality employment as workers shift out of agriculture and subsistence production and into waged employment in the expanding manufacturing and service sectors. On the other hand, there have been sectors where the trend has been away from formalization toward the informalization and semi-formalization of production activities and employment practices. Women have generally benefited from improvements in the world economy. This article demonstrates, however, that patterns of employment and income generation among women often diverge, however, from global trends in important ways that suggest that the forces shaping global integration effect women differently. The article frames a policy discussion that the International Center for Research on Women led to debate the implications of recent trends in women's employment in the developing and developed world. The six articles in this section represent this discussion. They span a range of empirical and theoretical inquiry, exploring global employment trends and highlighting changes in women's participation in formal and informal economic activities.     

Global value chains and servicification of manufacturing: Evidence from firm-level data

Recent literature on global value chains (GVCs) has mainly focused on manufacturing firms’ global sourcing and investment strategies. Our question here is that, if the manufacturing firms established foreign manufacturing plants and engaged in sourcing inputs and exporting outputs, have they changed their domestic employment composition toward service workers? This is what we call servicification of manufacturing firms in this paper. To answer this question, using Korean firm-establishments matched data, we examine changes in the shares of service employment in manufacturing firms from 2008 to 2013, when those firms are participating in both import-and-export and foreign direct investment (i.e., GVC firms). We find that the two-way trading firms that own manufacturing plants in foreign countries—and particularly in nearby foreign countries—have changed their domestic employment structures to increase the number of service workers they employ. Moreover, the relatively greater increase in the share of R&D workers than of wholesale-and-retail workers serves as further evidence of the servicification of domestic manufacturing. Overall, our findings suggest that Korean firms who engage in GVCs through both trade and foreign direct investment have reorganized domestic labor structure to be able to provide high value-added headquarter services for their manufacturing plants that are closely located in foreign countries.     

Changing Structure and Competition in THE Kretek Cigarette Industry

Kretekproduction has developed from a traditional industry into an important manufacturing sector in terms of value added, employment and government revenue. Kretek firms have outcompeted the large foreign “white” cigarette companies. Originating in the late 19th century, the industrygrew only after World War II. Production rose from 20 billion cigarettes in 1961 to 140 billion in 1993, and employment from 65,500 workers in 1929 to 137,600 in 1993 This success was confined mainly to the four largest firms, the number of kretek firms has shrunk from 1,200 in the 1950s to 141 in 1993 The industry is highly concentrated in Central and East Java, but consumption is widespread throughout the archipelago. Government intervention is high, in employment, taxation, pricing and investment policy, in promotion of small-scale firms and through the clove marketing monopoly Promotion of small-scale enterprises has been unsuccessful in this industry     

Trade and employment in Vietnam: how firms' trade matters

This paper aims to analyse how employment and wages change when a firm's trade status is altered. Using a detailed firm-level dataset of Vietnamese manufacturing enterprises, the study finds that how firms trade matters for firm employment and wages in Vietnam. The average effect of one-way trading (exporting or importing) is positive for both firms' total employment and female employment. Direct trading activities are associated with a higher level of employment than indirect trading activities by firms. The female employment effect of direct exports is nearly three times higher than direct imports. Indirect imports hurt firms' total employment and female employment. Both direct and indirect two-way traders experience higher growth in firm employment than direct-only traders. However, it is interesting to note that indirect two-way trading activities have a positive impact on female employment. Furthermore, the commencement of direct import is also associated with greater labour cost advantage.