Racial differences in the unemployment response to structural changes in local labor markets

This analysis uses establishment-level data on job creation and destruction to examine the unemployment rate responses of black, Hispanic and white workers to shifts in demand across firms and industries during the period 1980–84. Black unemployment rates are significantly more responsive to differences in aggregate demand growth and wage flexibility than are white and Hispanic unemployment rates, and they are also more severely impacted by structural changes in labor demand than are white and Hispanic unemployment rates. Additional research using the measures and focus of the present analysis that cover other time periods can assist in developing a clearer picture of the contemporary dynamics of urban labor markets and can provide guidance for public policy.     

Rising black unemployment: Changes in job stability or in employability?

This article analyzes the effects of changes in flows into and out of unemployment on the growing gap between black and white unemployment rates in the 1970s and 1980s. Current Population Survey data show that black workers’ unemployment inflows increased, suggesting that job instability increased. Declining employment opportunities were also implicated, as black workers left unemployment for a job less often in 1987 than in 1971. White women’s situation improved considerably, with lower inflows and higher employment probabilities. Although the effects of declining federal equal employment opportunity (EEO) pressure cannot be detected, these findings are consistent with increasing racial discrimination.     

Vacancies,unemployment, and black and white wage earnings: 1956–1983

Utilizing recent developments in the literature on vacancies and unemployment, the effects of changes in the vacancy to unemployment ratio on black and white wage earnings are examined. The primary result argues that black women’s wage earnings are less sensitive to changes in the national vacancy to unemployment ratios than white earnings. Another way of interpreting this result is that black women are not experiencing wage gains when new jobs are created. This finding suggests that black women may not experience increases in earnings if the vacancy to unemployment ratio increases in the future.     

Explaining post-1964 earnings gains by black women: Race or sex?

This article examines the earnings position of black females relative to white males for the post-1964 period. It finds that over 70 percent of the 1965–78 growth in black female relative median earnings remains after controlling for previous trends, education, and cyclical and labor supply changes. For full-time, year-round workers, the post-1964 trend independently implies a growth rate about 50 percent higher than that actually observed. Approximately one-half of the gains are attributable to race and the rest to the interaction of race and sex. The study finds no support for the censoring hypothesis that allocates a substantial portion of the growth to labor supply decreases. While it suggests occupational mobility to be nonextraneous in the earnings equation, the author argues that the black female now faces a mobility constraint more formidable than previously.     

An Analysis of Perceptions of Job Insecurity among White and Black Workers in the United States: 1977–2012

While objective measures indicate that the risk of job loss is higher for black workers than for white workers, there is little research on how what workers’ expectations of job loss differ by race. This study looks at how secure black and white workers are feeling about their jobs and how their perceptions of job insecurity have been affected by time trends and regional unemployment rates. I find that perceptions of job security of black male workers, older black workers, and black high school graduates have deteriorated relative to their white counterparts during the period 1977–2012. Among those who attended college, white workers’ perceived job insecurity has increased. Black blue-collar workers’ and construction workers’ perceptions of job insecurity also have increased relative to their white counterparts. Moreover, perceptions of job insecurity among several black groups, such as high school dropouts and old workers, are more sensitive to regional unemployment rates than their white counterparts.     

On (Not) Closing the Gaps: The Evolution of National and Regional Unemployment Rates by Race and Ethnicity

This paper conducts stationarity tests for levels and ratios of national and regional unemployment rates by race and ethnicity. Results indicate that both unemployment rates and ratios for the total population and for subgroups by race, ethnicity and region are stationary around changing means. The black/white unemployment ratio has increased on average and the Hispanic/white unemployment ratio has decreased on average. Results are compared across regions of the US.     

Race and sex differences in the effects of early unemployment on wages

Youth unemployment is shown to have significant depressing effects on black long-run earnings over and above the loss in work experience which accompanies unemployment. Estimates were similar for men and women, showing that for each week of unemployment black youth incurred early in their work careers, wages were reduced by about one half a percentage point five years later. A six month bout with unemployment in 1979 was related to a 13 percent drop in wage rates five years later. For white youth, joblessness, but not unemployment per se, had a significant negative impact on subsequent wage rates.     

Assessing black progress: employment,occupation, earnings,income, poverty

Farley discusses changes in employment, occupation, earnings, income, and poverty among US blacks. Among black men, there has been a persistent rise in unemployment since 1960. By the early 1980s, 1 black man out of 8 had dropped out of the labor force, compared to 1 in 20 white men. Some contend that many black men lack the skills to be employed or have personal habits and criminal records which make them unacceptable to employers. Others believe that the expansion of federal welfare programs offers attractive alternatives to men who have limited earnings potential. Still others stress that blacks are concentrated within cities, while the growth of employment is occurring in suburbs. Among those blacks over age 54, labor force participation has declined because of improved Social Security benefits, better private pensions, and the greater availability of Supplemental Security Income. The employment of young blacks compared to whites has deteriorated since 1960. For both races, there has been a steady rise in the employment of women. The recent increases, however, have been great for whites. By the early 1980s, white women caught up with black women in terms of employment. Unlike the indicators of employment itself, there is unambiguous evidence that the occupational distribution of employed blacks has been upgraded and is gradually becoming similar to that of whites. Findings from many studies show that blacks once earned much less than similar whites, but this racial difference has declined among men and has nearly disappeared among women. The proportion of blacks impoverished fell sharply in the 1960s, reaching a minimum of 30% in the early 1970s. Since the early 1970s, blacks have made few gains. The proportion impoverished actually increased and the ratio of black-to-white family income declined. The fact that the earnings of black males are no longer rising faster than those of whites and that there is no longer a migration from southern farms to cities plays a role, but changes in family structure are also important. At all dates, poverty rates have been high and income levels low in families headed by women. In 1984, for example, 52% of the black families with a woman as head of household were below the poverty line, compared to 15% of the black married-couple families. While similar trends are occurring in white families, there has been a sharper increase in the proportion of blacks living in these female-maintained families which have high poverty rates.     

Trends in relative earnings gains by black women: Implications for the future

The current article argues that the labor pattern of black women may be properly viewed within a trisectoral segmentation of the labor market. A three-phase characterization of their relative earnings behavior over the postwar period is implied. Empirical evidence lends support to the basic hypothesis of an acceleration in black female earnings growth, relative to white males and females, during the intermediate post-1964 period, but a decline thereafter. The quadratic trend model and its logistic transformation were found to fit the earnings patterns rather well. Projections based upon these models suggest that present trends do not bode well for major gains in black female median earnings relative to those of white men and women in the near future.     

中国城市失业率--从出生组分析经济转型的影响

中国城市的失业率存在显著的差异,如果比较不同的教育群体,不同性别和不同出生组别的话。相对而言,在所有教育组内,年轻群组内存在比年老群组更高的失业率。年老群组在他们劳动生涯内,失业率长期维持在接近零的水平。然而对于年轻群组,情况大相径庭:失业率差异增大。对于年轻群组而言,失业率和教育程度呈现反向关系:大学以上教育依然维持最低失业率水平。性别的失业率差距随着教育程度的降低而扩大:最大差距出现在低等教育组。除此以外,出生组别之间的失业率差异随着年龄增加而扩大,而且这种差距也是在低等教育女性组最为明显,这也意味着低等教育女性在劳动力市场的需求处于极为不利的地位。我们对于这种群组之间的失业率差距提供了解释:国有企业高度集中导致了非常低的失业率,而经济转型过程中国有企业比重的下降伴随着劳动力市场自由化程度的提高, 带来了较高的失业率。     

The impact of demand management policies on black vs. white employment

This article uses vector autoregression analysis to examine the relative impacts on black and white employment growth of monetary and fiscal actions. It was found that the employment responses to anticipated policy actions, while significant, were generally short-lived, with the exception of the effects of anticipated money growth on white employment. The influences of unanticipated policy changes are of a longer duration. The predominant finding in which black employment growth responded differently from white employment growth was in response to a monetary shock. The black employment response was sharply negative while the white employment response was a gradual increase over nine quarters. The results indicate that this difference occurred only during the 1980s and not in the 1970s and suggests that the effects of bank failures and credit rationing during this period may have significantly hurt minority employment opportunities.     

The dynamic effects of shocks to labour markets: evidence from OECD countries

This paper uses a set of plausible long-run identifying restrictionson a three-variable system, including output growth, real wagegrowth, and the unemployment rate, to isolate three independentstructural shocks which drive fluctuations in those variablesin a sample of 16 OECD countries during 1950-96. These shocksare interpreted as aggregate demand, productivity, and laboursupply disturbances. As a by-product of the previous analysis,the cyclical behaviour of real wages in response to a demandshock is re-examined and two indices of real wage rigidity arederived.     

Trickling Down the Rising Tide: New Estimates of the Link between Poverty and the Macroeconomy

This paper uses pooled time-series regressions of regional data to reexamine the link between poverty and the macroeconomy. The use of disaggregated data provides additional degrees of freedom and permits the inclusion of controls for demographic changes and increased income inequality. The results indicate a stronger relationship between poverty rates and the macroeconomy in the 1980s than that found in prior research and confirm that the dramatic reduction in unemployment during the late 1990s was instrumental in reducing poverty rates. The estimated results for the 1990s imply a 0.4-0.9% increase in the poverty rate for each 1% increase in the unemployment rate.     

Black women and labor force participation: An analysis of sluggish growth rates

The labor force participation rate of black women has not increased as fast as that of white women in spite of the fact that black females have the characteristics economists have found most encourage participation. Also black women at all socioeconomic levels have more positive attitudes towards labor market activity. The explanation for the failure for their work rates to grow as fast as those of white women appears to be inadequate employment opportunities for black women from lower socioeconomic groups. Education in or of itself, however, is not the solution to the problem because education yields lower returns to black women with limited schooling than is true for comparable whites. Any strategy devised to solve these employment inequities must address the low relative demand for these workers.     

The Effect of High School JROTC on Student Achievement,Educational Attainment,and Enlistment

The Junior Reserve Officers' Training Corps (JROTC) is a high school initiative that serves many at‐risk students. Its goals range from reducing dropout rates and improving academic achievement to preparing students for military careers. Using data from High School and Beyond (HSB) and the National Educational Longitudinal Study (NELS), we estimate average treatment effects on students attending schools that typically host JROTC. Applying a two‐stage matching technique, we find that JROTC participants have poorer academic outcomes than other students; although, a large portion of these differences is explained by their at‐risk status. In addition, program effects appear to differ by demographic group, with black participants having lower dropout rates than white participants. The program also appears to improve self‐esteem scores of females. Although the majority of JROTC participants do not join the military, we find large marginal enlistment effects.     

Interracial Marriage,Migration and Loving

The United States Supreme Court decision in the case of Loving v. Virginia in 1967, which forced 16 Southern states to strike down their anti-miscegenation laws, creates a unique opportunity to explore the impact of an exogenous change in a state’s laws regulating interracial marriages. This study investigates the relationship between anti-miscegenation laws, black/white interracial marriage and black Americans’ geographical distribution using three decades of the U.S. census data. The results suggest that the timing and voluntary/involuntary repeal of statutes banning black/white interracial marriages impacted the locational distribution of married black males. The relationship is less clear-cut for black females. However, length of exposure to anti-miscegenation laws is found to be related to the geographical sorting patterns of both black males and females. A few patterns in the data suggest that social norms and local culture may be influential in this relationship and the findings imply that unless a society is ready to change, the government cannot fully offset the negative impact of past bans and punishments.     

Black male unemployment

Public policies intended to raise the wages of unskilled workers, equalize educational opportunity, stabilize employment, and increase imports were sources of the growth of unskilled and, therefore, of black unemployment since 1950. The wartime wage-equalization policy and postwar minimum-wage policies raised the cost of unskilled labor relative to that of capital and of skilled labor. The Fed's inflationary full-employment policy between 1950 and 1970 reduced real interest rates relative to unskilled wages. Subsidies for higher education increased the supply of skilled labor, reducing its cost relative to that of unskilled labor. Trade liberalization increased imports of manufactured goods from developing countries, which displaced U.S. unskilled labor.     

The impact of sectoral shifts in investment on unemployment in U.S. labor markets

Capital stock data for the U.S. economy are used to develop a measure of sectoral shifts in productive resources. Within the context of the creative destruction process, this measure provides a direct indicator of sectoral shifts in resource demands independent of aggregate fluctuations. Years with greater reallocations of capital have higher unemployment, a result consistent with the traditional sectoral shifts hypothesis. However, fluctuations in unemployment appear to be more strongly influenced by aggregate rather than sectoral shocks. Significant variation exists across demographic groups in the responsiveness of unemployment to aggregate fluctuations and sectoral shifts. The adverse impact of sectoral shifts is greater for males and members of the nonwhite labor force.     

The effects of demographic changes on the real interest rate in Japan

What are the effects of demographic changes on the real interest rate in Japan? We present a dynamic general equilibrium model in which demographic changes are captured by exogenous changes in the ratio of workers to the total population. Our model predicts that a decline in this ratio in the process of population aging lowers the real interest rate; and the demographic impact on the real interest rate is amplified by a fall in land prices in the presence of collateral constraints. The model is simulated with the realized and forecasted changes in the working-age population ratio, the TFP growth, and government spending in Japan. Our results indicate that the TFP growth is the main source of variations in the real interest rate, but the demographic factor is also quantitatively important especially for its long-term movements.     

The vintage schooling hypothesis and racial differences in earnings and on-the-job training: A longitudinal analysis

Why do younger black males earn more relative to whites than do older black males? The literature offers two competing explanations. Smith and Welch suggest this pattern is evidence that employers are rewarding the improved skills of more recently, better-educated blacks. Lazear, and Duncan and Hoffman suggest that the pattern is the result of employer discrimination that prevents blacks from entering occupations that offer on-the-job training (OJT) and wage growth with experience. The competing views are tested by using the National Longitudinal Survey of Labor Market Experience of Young Men to compare black and white earnings and regression estimates in two periods. Regression results for 1968 and 1978 indicate that, as the NLS cohort aged, only white males had an age-earnings profile exhibiting the positive effect of OJT. Over the period, education coefficients decreased for both groups with the reduction greatest in black coefficients. This suggests that the earnings effect of education is not as stable for blacks as it is for whites over the life cycle. Black-white earnings ratios were approximately the same in both periods. The results reported here support the explanations offered by Lazear and by Duncan and Hoffman, implying that policies focusing on eliminating racial differences in educational quality may be insufficient in improving the relative position of blacks over the life cycle.