利率市场化后的金融图景

目前我国尽管没有实行完全的利率市场化,但利率市场化肯定是一个渐进的过程,在此期间存贷款利率已具有一定的弹性,竞争也较为激烈,改革后的利率变化不会太大,银行也没有动力通过调整存贷款利率的方式进行竞争。加之与利率市场化国家比,我国利差不高,     

利率市场化对新疆本地银行的影响——基于SWOT分析的研究

近年来我国利率市场化进程不断加快,利率市场化对我国经济稳定增长和经济结构优化调整产生了显著的积极影响,但是利率市场化会加剧各金融机构之间的竞争,对金融业的平稳产生冲击。本文通过对新疆本地银行近几年来的发展进行研究,并运用SWOT分析法发现了各地方银行在利率市场化的过程中所面临的机会和风险,寻求新疆各地方银行在应对利率市场化时的有效措施。     

利率市场化对企业外部融资影响分析

利率市场化后使得以前受管制的低于均衡利率的存贷款利率提高,对于小企业而言,一方面提高了中小企业的融资成本,另一方面利率市场化后导致存贷款利率提高,减少了民间信贷资金供给,使中小企业融资困难。对于大企业而言,利率市场化后,银行间的竞争增强,利率主要由资金供求双方决定,虽然利率市场化后短期内利率会有所上升,提高企业外部融资成本,但对于大企业而言可以将少寻租成本,因此利率市场化对大企业融资影响不太明显。     

时间表,还是时间表

我国的利率市场化攻坚之路借鉴日本做法更切合国情,即银行间接融资市场利率市场化从缓,同时快速发展实行市场利率的债券市场,与银行间接融资市场相竞争,逐渐实现完全的利率市场化     

利率市场化背景下的商业银行经营策略分析

利率市场化是我国加快金融体制改革的重要突破口之一,必将对我国商业银行的经营管理产生深远影响。本文较全面的阐述了利率市场化改革给商业银行带来的机遇与挑战,提出了防范风险．提高商业银行经营管理水平的基本对策。     

融资规则酿变的企业心态

＂利率市场化后,银行作为市场主体,还是会抓大放小。＂＂国企有实力,也比较讲信用,在运营过程中重风险控制,没有太多的动力去冒风险,这方面占优。而比较小的民企,银行不太敢放贷。＂     

基于VaR模型的银行同业拆借利率风险估计

中国银行间同业拆借利率(CHIBOR)是我国货币市场上最早市场化的利率.文章选择隔夜拆借利率为研究对象并分别用组合正态VaR方法和蒙特卡罗模拟法对其进行建模,经后验区间检验,发现蒙特卡罗模拟法的估计结果更为理想,从而确定了适合我国同业拆借市场的VaR模型.该研究结果可以帮助银行对同业拆借利率风险进行控制,防范风险.     

由低利率管制到利率市场化

低利率管制确实为部分国家的经济发展作出了贡献 ,但也导致了资源配置效率的低下 ,利率市场化因此被提出。利率市场化改革确实需要商业银行的商业化经营、现代企业制度的建立等作为前提 ,但是我们能够或必须等到这些条件完全成熟之后才进行利率市场化改革吗 ?中国可望今年加入WTO ,一旦加入WTO ,我国将在两年内允许外资银行对中资企业进行贷款 ,5年内将允许外资银行享有中资银行的国民待遇 ,我们可以对中资银行进行利率管制 ,我们还能对外资银行进行利率管制吗 ?利率市场化势在必行 !事实上 ,我国的国有商业银行和国有企业内部基本上建立了风险———收益机制 ,他们基本上具备了适应利率市场化的能力。而且目前我国通货膨胀率较低 ,甚至有通货紧缩的迹象 ,这是利率市场化的最好时机 !     

加息的影响

中国人民银行决定，自2007年3月18日起上调金融机构人民币存贷款利率。     

利率市场化对中国商业银行的影响及对策

中国为顺应世界潮流,在不断进行利率市场化的改革。在利率市场化的大背景下,对中国的商业银行会带来一系列的影响。文章首先分析了中国进行利率市场化改革的必要性,然后,在中国当前改革的背景下,分析了利率市场化对商业银行带来的机遇和挑战,最后,为商业银行提出了对策。     

浅析利率调整对住房抵押贷款违约风险的影响

住房贷款利率的变化对房地产价格产生着巨大影响，房地产价格又是住房抵押贷款中重要因素，与住房抵押贷款风险密切相关。违约风险是住房低押贷款风险中最基本最主要的风险，也称信用风险。论文将从理论上分析利率政策调整对住宅抵押贷款违约风险的影响，并提出相应的防范措施。     

Do Deposit Rates Cause Mortgage Loan Rates?: The Evidence from Causality Tests

This paper applies two familiar causality detection techniques to the issue of whether it is costs that determine prices or vice versa in the mortgage loan market. The question is posed in terms of causal priority: Are savings and loan deposit rates causally prior to mortgage loan rates or is it the other way around? For the time period prior to the onset of deposit interest rate deregulation, the evidence that emerges is consistent with the view that lenders raised their loan rates in response to higher deposit rates of interest. However, for the more recent period of deregulation, the evidence is not consistent with this view.     

Search Cost and Price Dispersion in Vertically Related Markets: The Case of Bank Loans and Deposits

Using data on marginal interest rates of loan and deposit products by Spanish banks, we find that the level of interest rates on loans (deposits) across geographic markets decrease (increase) with the number of banks in each market, and that the level of interest rates on loans increases with the level of interest rates of deposits. We also find that the dispersion of interest rates of both loans and deposits increase with the number of banks. This evidence is interpreted as evidence of customer’s search costs in retail banking, consistent with predictions from the Carlson and McAfee (J Polit Econ 91:480–493, 1983) model of market competition with search costs.     

Analysis and design of microfinance services: A case of ROSCA

Rotating savings and credit association (ROSCA) is a well-known microfinance association widely used in many countries around the world with long histories. By considering extra profits that such a system can provide when compared to banking transactions, we develop optimization problems to achieve an optimal design of a ROSCA. We find that ROSCAs might attract investors when deposit and loan rates from formal banking systems are not favorable. Furthermore, optimal rates and optimal orders to maximize system outputs are reported.     

Credit rationing and implicit contract theory : An empirical study

This paper investigate whether or not implicit contract relations predominate in the Japanese bank loan market and produce equilibrium credit rationing. The empirical evidence suggests that risks are shared between banks and firms through interest rate arrangements. This implies that commercial banks in Japan operate in a market dominated by implicit contract relations. However, the evidence does not support the view that Japanese commercial banks execute credit rationing in the sense of Fried and Howitt (1980). Furthermore, the results show that large banks differ from small banks in the risk consideration of loan contracts. These empirical results are completely consistent with the intermarket business group hypothesis such that the group formation aims to share risks and profits among members.     

A Note on Equivalent Fixed Rate and Variable Rate Loans; Borrower's Perspective

A common situation is where a borrower is offered the choice of two types of loans—a fixed interest rate loan for a fixed period or a variable interest (floating interest) rate loan. Usual wisdom and advice is that the borrower opts for the fixed rate loan if interest rates are anticipated to rise in the future or opts for the variable rate loan if interest rates are anticipated to fall. However, depending on the magnitude of the rates offered, and the rate uncertainty in the market, such wisdom may not always be well founded. This note demonstrates why this might be. It derives a readily usable, low-mathematical-background expression showing, for borrowers, when fixed and variable rate loans are equivalent and when one rate type is better/worse than the other.     

关注人民币升值，正确看待利与弊

原材料价格上涨、劳动力价格上涨,再加上出口退税率的下调和贷款利率去年的连续上调,使得本来就不具备强大竞争优势的中小企业生存状态十分艰难,使得这些企业更添烦恼。笔者在浙江云和、永嘉等玩具生产基地采访,这里的玩具企业负责人几乎都会感叹同一句话——“大环境不好”。他们说的大环境,当然包括了原材料、劳动力、出口退税、出口准入制度门槛等因素,然而,人民币快速的升值,更是给这些以出口为主的中小玩具企业添了烦恼。云和的一家木制玩具企业负责人这样感叹：“好不容易与外商的签下一份大单,但半年的合同做下来,我就莫名其妙的少了几十万,现在人民币还在升值,我都不敢和外商用美元来交易了”。     

Hedging Forward Mortgage Loan Commitments: The Option of Futures and a Future for Options

The purpose of this paper is to analyze theoretically the problem of how mortgage lending institutions assume the interest rate risks inherent in the granting of fixed-rate mortgage loan commitments.
Two approaches to hedge this risk are analyzed. First, the use of the GNMA futures market is evaluated from the standpoint of how it might be used to hedge against mortgage commitment risks. Secondly, the use of an appropriate pricing model—the Black-Scholes option pricing model—is offered as a proxy for establishing the market value of a fixed-rate mortgage commitment. This model is extended and empirically estimated for several hypothetical environments.
The paper demonstrates a basic flaw in the GNMA futures market as a hedge against mortgage commitments. Once this is established, the use of the options pricing approach is offered as a more rational approach for hedging these risks.     

商业银行的中小企业“牌”

供应链融资成为国内银行撬开中小企业金融需求的切口。"我的贷款都从信用社走,几十万到几百万元不等。"陈涛(化名)告诉记者。陈是广州江门一个小涂料企业的业主。他的公司年销售额不过2000万元左右。对于银行来说,这样的客户自然是小客户。     

平台信息披露、信用评级对P2P平台融资成功率影响研究

平台信息披露与信用评级是影响出资人意愿,进而影响P2P平台融资成功率的重要因素。本文综合考虑了平台、出资人、借款人三方的相互影响,并以中国第一家P2P借贷平台网站--拍拍贷在2014年1～12月的真实交易数据为样本,研究P2P平台的融资成功率影响因素。研究发现：借款详情描述字数越多,融资成功率越低,这也验证了出资人存在“懒人效应”。借款金额、利率、期限以及历史失败次数均会降低融资成功率。而历史成功次数、性别、工作、平台评级、认证均与融资成功率呈显著的正向关系。其中年龄与融资成功率没有直接关系。在所有影响因素中,平台评级在所有促进融资成功的变量中系数最大。本文研究对规范P2P平台,提高平台融资成功率具有意义。