Access regulation,entry and investments in telecommunications

This paper presents a model of competition between an incumbent and an entrant firm in telecommunications. The entrant has the option to enter the market with or without having preliminary invested in its own infrastructure; in case of facility based entry, the entrant has also the option to invest in the provision of enhanced services. In the case of resale based entry the entrant needs access to the incumbent network. Unlike the rival, the incumbent has always the option to upgrade the existing network to provide advanced services. We study the impact of access regulation on the type of entry and on firms’ investments. We find that without regulation the incumbent sets the access charge to prevent resale based entry and this generates a social inefficient level of facility based entry. Access regulation may discourage welfare enhancing investments, thus also inducing a socially inefficient outcome. We extend the model to account for negotiated interconnection in the case of facilities based entry.     

Structural separation versus vertical integration: Lessons for telecommunications from electricity reforms

Structural separation between network and retail functions is increasingly being mandated in the telecommunications sector to countervail the market power of incumbent operators. Experience of separation in the electricity sector offers insights for policy-makers considering telecommunications reforms. Despite apparent competitive benefits, the costs of contracting increase markedly when short-term focused electricity retail operations are separated from longer-term generation infrastructure investments (which require large up-front fixed and sunk cost components). The combination of mismatches in investment horizons, entry barriers, and risk preference and information asymmetries between generators and retailers leads to thin contract markets, increased hold-up risk, perverse wholesale risk management incentives, and bankruptcies. Direct parallels in the telecommunications sector indicate exposure to similar complications, intensifying many of the contractual risks arising from regulated access arrangements. Thus, as in electricity, competition between vertically integrated telecommunications providers would likely induce more efficient and sustainable investment and competition than would separation.     

Good intentions,poor outcomes: Telecommunications reform in South Africa

As the first decade of democratic rule draws to a close in South Africa, this paper reviews the telecommunications reform process in terms of the performance of the sector against the twin national policy objectives of affordable access to communications services and accelerated development to meet the needs of a modern economy. It critiques the implementation of international reform models which have in practice tended to emphasise privatisation at the expense of other reform mechanisms—including competition and, in particular, regulatory measures. It argues that this has impacted negatively on affordable access and has inhibited market innovation.This paper identifies the root of the problem as the market structure. Designed around the vertically integrated incumbent operator, it induces inherently anti-competitive impertives that demands a resource-intensive regulatory response. The regulator has often not had the statutory powers, and seldom the capacity, to circumscribe the behaviour of the incumbent so that it does not impact negatively on new entrants. Without effective regulation, the assumed benefits of liberalisation—including more affordable access through improved management of the incumbent and more efficient allocation of resources in the market through competition—do not materialise.The paper argues that developing country telecommunications markets demand more from a regulator than simply meeting the threshold requirements of transparency and predictability via so-called international “best practice” models. Such a limited approach will not be sufficient to meet the challenges facing most developing countries. The highly imperfect nature of developing country markets, and the enormous income disparities and inequities that exist, require strategic regulation. This is necessary to enable innovative service provision, especially to under-serviced areas, and to facilitate fair competitive markets that promote the viability of the new entrants needed to build the information infrastructure—the infrastructure necessary for a country's participation in the global network economy.Simply removing all market-entry restrictions, however, is likely to place an even more onerous burden on already-struggling regulators and is unlikely to contribute to universal access and other developmental goals. A new policy approach involving the fundamental restructuring of the market is needed to remove the anti-competitive incentives that exist in the vertically integrated market structure that generally accompanies privatisation in developing countries. While a more horizontally structured market will not remove the incumbent advantage entirely, it is likely to reduce the need for constant adjustment of anti-competitive behaviour on the part of the incumbent, freeing up regulatory resources for more strategic regulation towards achieving national developmental objectives.     

Incumbency and market share within European mobile telecommunication networks

The structure of mobile telecommunication markets varies considerably across Europe, ranging from monopolies with a handful of subscribers to markets with five operators and many millions of subscribers. Where competitive markets occur, there is also an incumbent operator possessing substantial first mover advantages. This paper explores these advantages, asking whether the incumbent has remained the largest operator as the market has developed. This question is investigated using data from 49 European countries. The analysis finds that in most countries the incumbent continues to be the largest operator measured by market share. In some countries, later entrants into the market have struggled to gain market share, contributing to the highly concentrated nature of many mobile markets. The extent to which the geographical footprint of an operator influences its market share is also examined.     

Analysing disruptive potential: the case of wireless local area network and mobile communications network companies

In this article, we analyse the prediction that wireless local area network (W-LAN) technologies will be disruptive for incumbent mobile communications network operators. For this purpose, we develop a methodology of guided interviews to assess technologies for their disruptive characteristics based on theory of disruptive technology developed by Christensen (1997) and recent extensions. The application of our comprehensive step-by-step method improves the precision of the disruptive technology concept and its usability for practitioners to make ex ante distinctions between disruptive technologies and other phenomena caused by emerging technologies. Our method predicts that contrary to common assumptions, W-LAN is not likely to represent a disruptive technology for the established mobile communications network firms in terms of Christensen's concept. This research was conducted in close collaboration with Vodafone Pilotentwicklung, an R&D and technology monitoring unit of the Vodafone Group. Vodafone provided part of the empirical data through expert interviews and market reports.     

The public incumbent's defeat in mobile competition: Implications for the sequencing of telecommunications reform

Within a mere 5 years of market competition, the mobile communications sector in Taiwan has exceeded a 100% penetration rate, currently ranking near the top of the world. In an even more stunning development, the public incumbent, Chunghwa Telecom, has handed the leadership status to a market entrant, Taiwan Cellular Corp., despite phenomenal mobile communications growth. This paper explores the factors that hamstrung Chunghwa Telecom in competition against its rival entrants. Our econometric analysis substantiates the fact that handset subsidies are the most effective instrument for mobile firms to gain market share. Chunghwa Telecom, due to its public ownership status, was nevertheless prohibited at first from adopting such a marketing strategy.The empirical results provided in this paper indeed pinpoint the importance of the sequencing of reform mandates in developing telecommunications: a prolonged privatization could help to promote competition in the industry. Public ownership makes Chunghwa Telecom vulnerable to political intervention and operational inefficiency, which is a barricade to performance and competitiveness for the not-yet-privatized company in a liberalized market. Taiwan's case presents an interesting deviation from conventional development theories, while it deserves scrutiny as it paves a shortcut to successful implementation of telecommunication reform in a timely fashion.     

Network effects and preference heterogeneity in the case of mobile telecommunications markets

This paper demonstrates how revealed- and stated-preference analyses can be used for modeling network effects in the field of mobile telecommunications. The aim of this study was to verify if network effects may still play a role in the Polish mobile telecommunications market, measure their strength, identify their sources and variability across consumers by accounting for consumers' observable and unobservable preference heterogeneity, evaluate their monetary value to consumers, and finally, to verify if the marginal utility associated with network effects is constant. The analysis of consumers' revealed choices (currently used mobile telephone operator) allowed the identification of major differences between customer bases of incumbent and new entrant operators, and insight into the business strategies adopted in the presence of asymmetric regulation of mobile termination rates. The second part of the study—the analysis of the consumers' stated choices (made in carefully prepared and designed hypothetical choice situations, known as the choice experiments) made it possible to directly model consumers' utility functions and, in this way, investigate the nature of network effects in mobile telecommunications markets. From the results, the presence of strong network effects, which are related to the ratio of consumers' social network group using the same operator, and to the magnitude of on-net price discounts, is confirmed. These network effects can be disaggregated to pecuniary and non-pecuniary effects. Through the utilization of the random parameters multinomial logit model, consumers' observable and unobservable preference heterogeneity can be accounted for, which proved a scientifically revealing and potentially policy-relevant approach. The results might be of a particular interest to other researchers aiming at modeling consumers' preferences as well as to mobile telephone operators and regulatory authorities—it is shown that capacity for vigorous price competition between mobile operators is limited by non-price factors, which affect subscriber's choices, especially in the presence of asymmetric mobile termination rates.     

Economic implications of a co-investment scheme for FTTH/PON architectures

Due to the high costs associated with the deployment of the passive infrastructure of FTTH networks, a few alternative operators have pondered the possibility of making co-investments based on a network sharing model. The purpose of this article is to explore economic aspects of a co-investment scheme for present and future FTTH/PON architectures. The article describes the cost reductions that can be achieved when a co-investment scheme is used, as well as the relationship between market shares and the cost per home connected. A cost model was employed to calculate the investment per home passed and the investment per home connected. The investment per home passed for an alternative operator indicates significant cost reductions when a co-investment scheme is used. On the other hand, the results show that when the incumbent's market share is equal or higher than the total market share of all the alternative operators that share the network infrastructure, the investment per home connected for an alternative operator is higher than that for the incumbent operator. Moreover, to be cost competitive with the incumbent operator, the necessary market share that each alternative operator should achieve is much lower than that of the incumbent operator.     

Broadband investment and regulation: A literature review

Investment in broadband communications and its infrastructures (the so-called Next Generation Networks) is receiving extraordinary attention from policy makers all over the world, due to the significant impact of high-speed Internet access on the whole economy and society. However, even before the recent financial crises, a dramatic downward trend in telecommunications investment has occurred, mainly due – at least according to incumbent operators – to excessively intrusive regulatory intervention. The typical conflict between regulation, competition and investment emerges. It is therefore important, for both future research and regulatory and practitioners’ references, to review the specialized but growing branch of the literature on this interesting and policy-relevant issue. The purpose of this paper is therefore to survey the relevant theoretical and empirical literature on the relationship between regulation, at both retail and wholesale level, and investment in telecoms infrastructures. The picture that emerges is not conclusive, and further research is still needed, both theoretically and empirically, to better understand the real impact of regulatory incentives on investments.     

The disruptive potential of PWLAN at the country-level: The cases of Germany,the UK,and the USA

This paper analyzes the impact of WLAN technologies for incumbent MNOs based on an empirical cross-country study of the players in the public WLAN-hotspot market using the theory of disruptive innovation and theoretical extensions for the industry- and country-level. The main research question to be analyzed is whether and why PWLAN has shown a disruptive or sustaining impact trend for incumbent MNOs in the hotspot markets of Germany, the UK, and the USA in recent years. The results imply that incumbent MNOs and new entrants have taken advantage of the opportunity provided by PWLAN, but the market success of both types of players varies between the countries analyzed. Incumbent MNOs dominate in Germany but not in the UK and the USA. The reasons for these country-specific differences were further investigated, and the results suggest that the analysis of disruptive potential in telecommunications needs to include country- and firm-specific factors, which are, again, largely influenced by the local regulation.     

Recent developments in US wireline telecommunications

This article presents a selective survey of several recent developments in the US market for wireline telecommunications services spanning the 2003–2005 period. Specifically, the article discusses the recent decline in overall telephone penetration rates, the substitution between wireline and wireless telephony, intermodal competition issues raised in the context of the FCCs review of the Cingular/AT&T Wireless merger, and the potentially anticompetitive effects of incumbent local exchange carrier tying of voice and DSL service. The article identifies several areas for future research motivated by each one of these developments.     

Mapping worldwide mobile networks: Some problems and indicative solutions

Mobile telecommunications is a global and complex industry containing many actors. However, relatively little research has been undertaken into explaining its structure. With this in mind, the objective of this paper is twofold: first, to map the structure of the mobile telecommunications industry and, second, to use this mapping exercise to highlight the data collection issues that are frequently encountered. Through outlining one particular approach to data collection, the paper argues that researchers need to be careful when constructing datasets and wary when relying on those provided by others. By mapping the structure of the mobile industry, the paper highlights a series of key issues in data collection and trends in operator and market structure.     

Interconnection in Network Industries

Recent deregulation of telecommunications in the U.S. and elsewhere has highlighted the importance of interconnection in network industries. In this paper, we analyse interconnection in a deregulated network where the participants compete in the final retail market. We consider both the case of a mature industry as well as one where a new entrant challenges the incumbent. In the later case, network externalities allow the incumbent to use the terms of interconnection to maintain its dominant position. Moreover, in either case, competition in the retail market can be undermined by collusion over access prices. We discuss the implications for some of the provisions of the new U.S. Telecommunications Act, specifically mandatory interconnection and reciprocity of tariffs, comparing these to the simple bill and keep rule.     

Triple play: How do we secure future benefits?

Recent technological developments make it possible to provide all telecommunications services (TV, telephony and internet) via the TV cable and fixed telephony network. Moreover, a new infrastructure based on optical fibre (to the home) is emerging in some places, which may in the future replace both existing networks. Making use of the available economic literature, the paper analyzes some of the consequences of the emergence of one electronic communications market. It focuses on two policy issues: the consequences of convergence of technologies and competition between networks for regulation in the short and medium runs, and the role of public investment in the rollout of optical fibre. It concludes that the present state of regulation may have some undesirable effects in the face of convergence and that public investment in a new general purpose infrastructure may have important advantages.     

Functional separation in Swedish broadband market: Next step of improving competition

Technological development together with liberalization policy has led to competition in the telecommunications market. Broadband has been recognized as a driving force in the social and economic development of nations, and many countries have introduced policies and/or regulatory frameworks to improve competition in broadband markets. An evolution can be seen from the 1980s until the present day through open access to local loop unbundling to several degrees of separation including functional separation. There are several countries implementing functional separation such as the UK, Italy, Sweden and, recently the EU. It has been suggested that functional separation can be an effective policy for increasing competition in broadband markets under certain circumstances. Sweden has implemented functional separation by amending the Swedish Telecommunications Act in 2008 to include mandatory functional separation as one of the powers of the PTS, the Swedish telecommunications regulator. Although TeliaSonera, the incumbent fixed line operator decided to voluntarily separate part of their business, the amendments to the law were debated with arguments similar to the debates in the EU following the new regulatory framework implemented in 2009. Against this background, this paper provides an overview of the development of functional separation in the EU and European countries such as Sweden and the UK. The paper also provides a theoretical and empirical analysis of the implementation of functional separation. The evolution of functional separation in Sweden is explained and ends with a discussion of the implementation of functional separation in the Swedish broadband market.     

The mixed blessing of a deregulatory endpoint for the public switched telephone network

Receiving authority to dismantle the wireline public switched telephone network (PSTN) will deliver a mixture of financial benefits and costs to incumbent carriers and also jeopardize longstanding legislative and regulatory goals seeking ubiquitous, affordable and fully interconnected networks. Even if incumbent carriers continue to provide basic telephone services via wireless facilities, they will benefit from substantial relaxation of common carriage duties, no longer having to serve as the carrier of last resort and having the opportunity to decide whether and where to provide service. On the other hand, incumbent carriers may have underestimated the substantial financial and marketplace advantages they also will likely lose in the deregulatory process. Legislators and policy makers also may have underestimated the impact of no longer having the ability to impose common carrier mandates that require carriers to interconnect so that end users have complete access to network services regardless of location.This paper will identify the potential problems resulting from prospective decisions by National Regulatory Authorities (NRAs), such as the United States Federal Communications Commission (FCC), to grant authority for telecommunications service providers to discontinue PSTN services. The paper also will consider whether in the absence of common carrier duties, private carriers providing telephone services, including Voice over the Internet Protocol (VoIP), voluntarily will agree to interconnect their networks. The paper will examine three recent carrier interconnection issues with an eye toward assessing whether a largely unregulated marketplace will create incentives for carriers to interconnect networks so that consumers will have ubiquitous access to PSTN replacement and other broadband services.The paper concludes that private carrier interconnection models and information service regulatory oversight may not solve all disputes, or promote universal service public policy goals. Recent Internet interconnection and television program carriage disputes involving major players such as Comcast, Level 3, Fox, Cablevision and Google point to the possibility of increasingly contentious negotiations that could result in balkanized telecommunications networks with at least temporary blockages to desired content and services by some consumers.     

Estimating demand for cellular phone services in Japan

Since the 1990s, the telecommunications industry has changed dramatically with the wide diffusion of mobile telecommunications. In spite of this, the nature of the cellular phone market has not yet been explored sufficiently. This paper analyzes the demand for cellular phone services using data on the Japanese cellular phone market in the late 1990s. It finds that the market is highly product-differentiated and conventional network externalities are no longer decisive factors in choosing a mobile phone carrier. The evidence also shows that the demand for cellular phone services is quite price-elastic, with estimated elasticity from 1.30 to 2.43 in absolute value.     

The impact of trade liberalization in telecommunications services: The case of APEC countries

This paper examines the impact of liberalizing the telecommunications services sector on investment and output in the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) countries by estimating a system of four structural equations that takes into account the causal relationship between national income and telecommunications infrastructure. The degree of openness to trade in telecommunications is represented by a carefully constructed index that reflects a country’s trade and investment policy in terms of market access, national treatment and regulatory principles. One interesting finding from the empirical analysis is that the effects of trade liberalization depend on the risk rating of a country. In countries with relatively high risk ratings liberalization reduces investment in telecommunications.     

Strategic focus of incumbents in the European telecommunications industry: The cases of BT,Deutsche Telekom and KPN

This study investigates the internal and external strategic choices that telecommunications firms, operating in a dynamic network environment, make to adapt to changes and to respond quickly in order to create or to sustain their competitive advantage. In particular, in the European telecommunications industry incumbent firms have faced important challenges from new technologies, liberalization and the convergence of markets. The leading European telecommunications companies initially focused on new markets and new businesses, emphasizing their plans to become major players in relevant markets. However, after the telecommunications euphoria companies were more restrained due to their huge burden of debt and their market value. Through refocusing or restructuring, these companies have tried to streamline their businesses in order to restore their value and to improve their competitiveness. Insight into the specific strategic actions of traditional telecommunications companies in Europe to the recent developments in the industry is provided from the analysis of three leading traditional telecommunications companies: BT, Deutsche Telekom and KPN.     

Information resources : A nation's stake in telecommunications

The major trend affecting worldwide economic development is the growing level of information-intensive activities throughout all sectors of increasingly global markets. This paper analyses the crucial role of telecommunications in a nation's productive processes. It examines the salient market force of services in virtually all sectors of national economies, describes how VANs enhance the quality and utility of basic communications channels, and analyses future network growth as a country's economy and society become increasingly computerized. The author discusses the importance of competition and recommends that restrictive regulatory regimes should respond to dynamic technological change.