气候政策不确定性变化与能源市场收益率——基于条件分位数的证据

在全球应对气候变化，并向低碳能源转型的过程中，气候政策的不确定性越来越成为影响能源市场回报的重要因素。本文采用全球主要能源市场的历史收益数据和气候政策不确定性数据，通过QVAR模型构建基于不同条件分位数的溢出指数，研究了气候政策不确定性变化与能源市场收益率在整个条件分布上的关联性并分析左右尾部的溢出特征。结果表明：在不同条件下，气候政策不确定性变化对能源市场收益率存在差异性影响，极端状态下为能源市场回报溢出效应的净接收方，正常状态下则为净输出方。气候政策不确定性变化与能源市场回报总溢出效应由中间分位点向左右尾部逐渐提升，且溢出指数在整个条件分位数上呈现出U型结构。随着冲击规模增加，气候政策不确定性变化与能源市场回报的左右尾部溢出传染效应增强，且在极端上行与极端下行状态表现出非对称性影响。     

中国碳市场与EU 碳市场价格波动溢出效应研究

本文采用2014 年7 月 ～ 2017 年4 月欧盟排放市场组织 （EU） 以及中国7 个主要碳排放权交易市场碳交易现货价格的对数收益率的月度平均数据， 采用 DCC-MGARCH（1，1）模型， 尝试分析两个市场之间的价格波动溢出效应。 结果表明： （1） 两个市场均存在集聚效应， 但欧盟市场集聚特征和价格波动幅度更显著； （2） 两个市场间存在长期均衡和相互引导关系， 但这种影响存在非对称效应， 欧盟市场对中国市场溢出效应更明显； （3） 欧盟市场对外界反应更为敏感， 其价格高低相随明显。 但当欧盟碳交易价格出现急剧变化时， 中国碳交易价格波动幅度较之欧盟更大， 这在一定程度上说明中国碳市场仍较为脆弱。 建议加强全国统一性市场的建立， 完善价格监管机制， 避免价格波动对国内产业结构调整和低碳产业发展产生影响。     

中国经济政策不确定与人民币汇率溢出效应的实证研究

本文通过综合运用VAR模型和MVGARCH-BEKK模型,在“8.11汇改”前后对样本进行分段,分析了经济政策不确定性和人民币汇率间均值溢出效应和波动溢出效应。结果表明:(1)在全样本期间,人民币汇率对经济政策不确定性同时产生均值溢出效应和波动溢出效应,而经济政策不确定性对汇率不产生溢出效应;(2)“8.11汇改”后,经济政策不确定和人民币汇率的联动关系发生了改变。汇改前经济政策不确定性对汇率不产生溢出效应,汇改后出现了波动溢出效应;汇改前汇率变化对经济政策不确定性产生正均值溢出,汇改后人民币汇率对经济政策不确定性产生负均值溢出;(3)汇改后汇率市场化程度提高,中国经济政策不确定性和外汇市场的联动性增强。     

国内外大宗商品市场间信息溢出效应的实证研究——基于 DAG 方法与溢出指数模型

基于多维信息溢出视角，本文采用有向无环图和溢出指数方法，选取2006年6月2日至2015年12月25日的周度数据，从期货和现货两个层面实证分析国内外大宗商品市场间信息溢出效应及其动态变化趋势。结果显示，国内外大宗商品市场的收益率溢出指数呈现出先上升后下降的趋势，而波动率溢出指数则呈现明显的突变特征；国际大宗商品市场对中国大宗商品市场影响较大，在信息溢出方面处于主导地位，我国大宗商品市场的国际影响力相对较小，但呈现逐步增强的趋势；此外，国际大宗商品市场的金融属性强于我国，并且在2012年，我国大宗商品的去金融化趋势明显。     

工业化、高速经济增长与协调分工的制度安排

在工业化过程中，后起国家可以利用模仿与“学习效应”（包括技术模仿、生产组织方式模仿、管理模仿等）获得“加速的成本下降”，而“加速的成本下降”可以使后起国家的工业化进程明显快于先行国家．因而在潜质上具有更高的经济增长速度。但在工业化初期，工业体系的形成需要大量的企业互补投资，由于产业发展的不确定性极强，资本市场和市场价格难以负载未来信息．市场很难在较短的时间内协调工业化早期所必须的分工．从而产生“协调失灵”现象。东亚国家都利用了各种不同程度和方式的政府干预成功地解决分工“协调失灵”问题．因而产生了具有与发达国家不同的市场体制．但这种体制也潜藏了较大的弊病．在日后的发展过程中逐步表现出来。     

小议煤炭企业资本运营

1 处理好主营业务与多元化经营的关系。首先 ,当企业同时经营若干不同但相关的产品时 ,可能产生经济效益的改善。这种因增加相关产品种类而导致的节约 ,就是一种“广度经济”。同一企业经营的不同产品之间具有技术互补性质时 ,广度经济效应会更加显著。生产上 ,当同一企业的两种产品在制造技术或使用人力资本方面可以相互借鉴与相互促进时 ,就会产生广度经济 ;流通过程中 ,经营多种产品的企业可能更有效使用营销力量与资源 ;在技术与产品研究开发时 ,多种产品企业也可能具有某种优势 ,或是在技术上互相启发取长补短 ,或是在技术与市场发展上…     

企业数字化转型的信息溢出效应——基于供应链视角的经验证据

《“十四五”数字经济发展规划》明确指出企业要充分发挥数据要素作用，强调大力推进产业数字化转型的重要性。当前中国实体经济面临严重的供需结构性失衡，且主要矛盾集中于供给侧。针对企业数字化转型能否改善供应链上企业间的信息传递效率进而优化供给结构的问题，本文从供应链视角出发，基于2012—2019年沪深上市公司样本，检验了客户企业数字化转型对供应链上企业间信息环境的影响及其作用机制。研究发现，供应链上的客户企业数字化转型缓解了供应链的“牛鞭效应”，对供应商企业产生显著的正向信息溢出效应。数字化技术方向的异质性对供应链间信息环境的治理作用也存在明显差异。当供应商企业规模越大、库存周转天数越长、面对的外部环境风险或不确定性越大以及客户集中度越高时，客户企业数字化转型产生的信息溢出效应越明显。机制分析结果表明，客户企业数字化转型通过降低供应商企业的信息搜寻成本和验证成本来改善供应链间信息环境。进一步分析发现，客户企业数字化转型产生的信息溢出效应会影响供应商企业的决策行为，促使供应商企业采用独特的战略模式，提高供应商企业全要素生产率。本文基于客户企业数字化转型，为优化供给结构、缓解产能过剩以及供应链效...     

基于ESDA方法与空间计量模型的房价溢出效应分析

一个地区房价的波动可以通过时间滞后传递到其他地区，从而产生房价溢出效应。本文以我国31个省际区域2005～2014年的数据为样本，运用探索性空间数据分析（ESDA）对31个省的房价空间分布格局及演变态势进行分析。然后运用空间计量模型分析我国省际房价变动的影响因素，并从地理因素和经济因素两个方面研究房价溢出效应。研究结果表明：中国31个省域间的房价存在明显的空间相关性；地区的城市化率、城镇就业人员平均货币工资、二、三产业产值占GDP比重对房价有显著的影响，房价存在显著的空间溢出效应，经济距离对地区房价影响比地理距离的影响更显著。     

环境规制与中国城市生态效率提升——基于空间计量模型的分析

本文基于空间视角， 选取 2003～2017年中国285 个地级及以上城市的面板数据， 通过设置3 种空间计量模型， 探讨了环境规制对中国城市生态效率的影响。 实证结果显示： （1） 环境规制对中国城市生态效率的影响存在倒 “U” 型曲线关系， 且在不同城市之间存在明显的负向空间溢出效应； （2）东部样本、 西部样本与中部样本空间溢出效应的强度依次递减， 不同区域之间存在明显的空间异质性；（3） 金融信贷对中国城市生态效率有显著的促进作用， 政府干预对中国城市生态效率有显著的抑制作用，而人力资本对中国城市生态效率的影响具有不确定性。     

外商投资、 技术溢出与能源效率

根据中国31 个省份 2000～2016 年的数据， 本文分析了外商投资的技术溢出效应对我国物质能源效率的影响， 通过实证研究发现： （1） 外商投资的技术溢出效应能够对中国的能源效率产生正影响， 但这种作用并不显著， 且东部、 中部和西部区域并无明显差异； （2） 中国工业增长是影响国内能源使用效率的重要因素， 且相比西部地区， 东部和中部的产业增长对能源效率提升更显著； （3） 人均收入的提升对技术进步具有显著影响， 但国内投资的增加并未产生节能效应， 反而导致能源使用强度上升。因此我国在吸引外商投资时， 应注重节能减排等国外先进技术的转移， 同时也应重视本国技术的开发以增强自主创新能力， 从而提高我国能源使用效率并使经济更为健康的向前发展。     

Managing strategic responsibility in the MNC

An issue that confronts the top management of every multinational company is that of determining where in the organization basic strategy decisions should be made. The firm may concentrate responsibility for a broad range of strategic tasks at headquarters, or cede strategic responsibility to foreign affiliates. This paper argues that deriving an appropriate apportionment of strategic responsibility is largely a matter of recognizing the unique strategic imperatives imposed on the multinational firm by the conflicting requirements of integration within a global context, and responsiveness to local environments. For the firm whose businesses can benefit from world-wide co-ordination and standardization of manufacturing and product development, there is strong pressure to consolidate strategic responsibility at headquarters. For the firm whose businesses require attention to the idiosyncracies of national markets, the strategic autonomy of subsidiaries may be requisite for success. A variety of factors renders difficult a clear-cut, one-time identification of the strategic imperative facing a business. For example, even within a single business, certain functions respond to the logic of integration, whereas others require a posture of responsiveness. At times both imperatives exist at full strength within a single functional area. Often, in a multi-business, multinational firm, different businesses are subject to different pressures for integration and responsiveness. It is shown that managing strategic responsibility in situations of such ambiguity forces the firm to look far beyond traditional structural mechanisms in order to enact an appropriate division of strategic responsibility between headquarters and affiliates.     

Impact of Strategic Type on Success Measures for Product Development Projects*

Does the strategic type of firm affect which success measures should be used for product development (PD) projects? This paper theorizes that it should and finds that it does because the PD projects undertaken are usually an expression of the strategic type of the firm. The purpose of this research is to affirm a 1996 survey of members of the Product Development & Management Association (PDMA) that proposes that firms' PD performance measures should vary by their strategic type. Thus, for example, prospectors, the strategic type most likely to introduce new products to new markets, should place greater importance on PD success measures consistent with their characteristic strategies of changing product lines and early market entry. In contrast, defenders, the strategic type most likely to maintain stable product lines for existing markets, should place greater importance on PD success measures consistent with their characteristic strategies of stable product lines and market penetration. Analyzers, a hybrid type between prospectors and defenders, should prefer measures consistent with their characteristic strategies for improving products and being early followers in newer markets. To relate strategic types to specific success measures for PD projects, this paper proposes a model of the relationship based on the degree of project newness to the firm and then catalogs measures of PD project success and groups them according to degree of project newness. The research findings are based on survey responses from 222 individuals who are employed by financial service providers, who identified their firms by strategic type and rated the importance of PD success measures to their firms. The importance of 21 performance measures is compared by strategic type to find significant differences among prospectors, analyzers, and defenders. This research finds several significant relationships. prospectors, for example, attach greater importance to customer satisfaction, launch timeliness, and product return on investment, all of which may be characterized as relating to a higher degree of project newness to the firm. defenders and analyzers, on the other hand, attach more importance than prospectors to measures of unit volume, cost reduction, and margin goals, all of which relate to a lower degree of project newness to the firm. In short, because prospectors seek to introduce new products to new markets, they consider important those measures, which accord with greater product and market newness. The major conclusion of this paper is that strategic type affects the importance of project performance measures and that all firms should not use the same success measures. Firms should contextualize their success in PD projects based on their strategic type. This conclusion resonates with previous findings that strategy is a key determinant of PD success, though it is infrequently included in PD success studies. This paper, therefore, challenges the implicit assumption in the mainstream of PD success literature that success can be determined without regard to firm strategy.     

Innovation and new product introductions in emerging markets: Strategic recommendations for the Indian market

While radical innovations and growth strategies supporting such innovations may provide the firm with very high returns, there are also considerable risks in devising and implementing such innovations. Apart from the business risks of venturing into new territories and new markets, radical innovations also carry with them the burden of accounting for market and environmental factors that are often not under the control of the firm. The opportunities presented by the emergence of several Asian markets, such as India and China, are particularly appealing for Western countries willing to expand into these markets. However, market characteristics, institutional development, and customer behaviors bring into sharp focus the choice of a specific innovation and new product development strategy for such markets. This paper examines these various strategic issues in the context of India. The paper concludes with strategic recommendations for managers and some propositions for future academic research.     

The Form of Relationship between Firm‐Level Product Innovativeness and New Product Performance in Developed and Emerging Markets

This study compares the new product performance outcomes of firm‐level product innovativeness across a developed and emerging market context. In so doing, a model is constructed in which the relationship between firm‐level product innovativeness and new product performance is anticipated to be curvilinear, and in which the nature of this relationship is argued to be dependent on organizational and environmental factors. The model is tested using primary data obtained from chief executive officers and finance managers in 319 firms operating in the United Kingdom, an advanced Western market, and 221 firms from Ghana, an emerging Sub‐Saharan African market. The model is assessed using a structural equation model multigroup analysis approach with LISREL 8.5. In the United Kingdom and Ghana, the basic form of the relationship between firm‐level product innovativeness and business success is inverted U‐shaped, but the strength and/or form of this relationship changes under differing levels of market orientation, access to financial resources, and environmental dynamism. While commonalities are identified across the two countries (market orientation helps firms leverage their product innovativeness), differences are also observed across the samples. In Ghana, access to financial resources enhances the relationship between product innovativeness and new product performance, unlike in the United Kingdom where no moderation is observed. Furthermore, while U.K. firms leverage product innovativeness to their advantage in more dynamic environments, Ghanaian firms do not benefit in this way: here, high levels of innovation activity are less useful when markets are more dynamic. If the study's findings generalize, there are a number of implications for managers of both emerging and developed market businesses. First, managers in both developed and developing market firms should focus on determining and managing an optimal balance of novel and intensive product innovativeness within the context of their unique institutional environments. Second, for emerging market firms, a market orientation capability helps businesses leverage local market intelligence, enabling them to compete with multinational giants flocking to emerging markets, but typical developed market learning approaches may be insufficient for multinational firms when seeking to compete in emerging markets. Third, for emerging market firms, access to finances helps deliver product innovation success (although this is not the case for developed market firms, possibly due to strong financial institutions). Finally, unlike developed market firms, burdened by institutional voids at home, emerging market firms appear to be less capable of competing on an innovation front in more dynamic market conditions. Accordingly, policymakers in emerging markets should consider identifying ways to help businesses raise market orientation levels, and seek to create conditions that enhance access to financial capital (e.g., direct financing, matching grants, tax rebates, or rewarding firms that innovate creatively and intensely). Likewise, since environmental dynamism is likely to be a growing issue for emerging markets, efforts to help firms become more adept at keeping up with more agile developed market counterparts are needed.     

The capital structure implications of pursuing a strategy of innovation

In this paper, we argue that consideration of firm strategy can help illuminate the choices managers make between debt and equity financing. Within an industry, the form of competition that each firm chooses will determine the strategic value to the firm of maintaining financial slack. Our empirical analysis yields strong support for the proposition that financial slack should be a particularly critical strategic imperative for firms pursuing a competitive strategy premised on innovation. We also demonstrate that firms pursuing such a strategy that fail to recognize the value of financial slack are likely to perform poorly. Copyright © 2003 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

系统市场中企业策略性排他行为分析

本文将系统竞争和组件竞争结合起来，分析系统市场中的企业策略性行为及其对市场竞争和创新的影响。在系统市场上．开放的系统竞争结构是较优的，但是企业并不一定会选择与社会福利目标相一致的组织形式．而是更多地基于策略性需要来进行选择。在系统市场中．创新主导企业有激励通过策略性地选择许可比例来操纵市场竞争。在邻近市场结构中．在位创新垄断企业有激励通过排他性行为将关键技术市场的垄断势力延伸到邻近竞争市场．这些市场封锁行为通常会严重地伤害市场竞争，并阻碍技术创新。     

Allocating Control over Firms: Stock Markets versus Membership Markets

The theory of the firm must explain howdecision-making powers are allocated between suppliersof capital and labor. Most large enterprises awardformal control to investors rather than workers. Isuggest here that this asymmetry can be traced in partto differences between stock markets and membershipmarkets as institutional mechanisms for allocatingcontrol over firms. The attractive theoreticalproperties of membership markets are examined, alongwith some factors that may account for their rarity inpractice. These practical difficulties help explainthe rarity of labor-managed firms themselves, alongwith various facts about their design, behavior, anddistribution across industries.     

New Product Strategies of Large, Dominant Product Manufacturing Firms: An Exploratory Analysis

Although researchers have expended considerable effort exploring the links between new product strategy and firm-level performance, most studies of this subject focus on small- to medium-sized firms. Compared to smaller firms, however, large companies typically maintain broader portfolios of products and have easier access to capital markets. Such fundamental differences suggest the need for closer examination of the relationship between new product strategy and the performance of large firms. Based on a study of 459 new products introduced during a 5-year period, Richard W. Firth and V. K. Narayanan profile the new product strategies of 18 large companies. They examine the methods used to acquire new products (internal development or external sources) as well as three dimensions of each firm's new product introductions: newness of embodied technology, newness of market application, and innovativeness in the market. In other words, these profiles identify the degree to which a firm's new product introductions involve core technologies and markets that are new to the firm, as well as the degree to which the market views these products as innovative. Because new product strategy is an investment decision, the study also examines the relationship between these strategic profiles and two facets of firm-level performance: risk and return. The study identifies five archetypes of new product strategy: Innovators, who produce innovative products by using their existing resources; Investors in Technology, who focus on expanding their technological base. Searching for New Markets, firms that venture into unfamiliar markets by introducing products closely aligned with those in their existing portfolios; Business as Usual, firms that rely on existing technologies and products to serve existing markets; and Middle-of-the-Road, firms content to introduce new products rated as low to moderate along all three dimensions of the strategic profile. For new products closely aligned with their core markets and technologies, the firms in this study typically rely on internal development. To introduce products involving new technologies or market applications, they turn to acquisition from external sources. Firms that emphasized market innovativeness in their new product introductions enjoyed higher returns than less innovative firms. And contrary to conventional wisdom, they gained this advantage without an accompanying increase in risk. In other words, continual innovation might provide a large firm with the means for achieving higher returns without higher risk.     

New Product Development in Rapidly Changing Markets: An Exploratory Study

Rapid technological change can be both a blessing and a curse. For example, investors and firms of all sizes hope to reap the rewards that may arise from the apparent convergence of the computer, telecommunications, and entertainment industries. With the high level of uncertainty inherent to such rapidly changing markets, however, those potentially dazzling returns are counterbalanced by a daunting level of risk. John Mullins and Daniel Sutherland suggest that firms operating in such markets require NPD practices that can mitigate risk, manage uncertainty, and, of course, increase the likelihood of new product success. To gain insight into the NPD practices that can meet those challenges, they conducted in-depth interviews with managers who were directly involved in NPD projects at US WEST, Inc., a large, multinational firm in the telecommunications industry. The study focused on identifying practices that help the firm bring new products into rapidly changing markets quickly, efficiently, and effectively. A key objective of their study was to go beyond the basics—for example, the use of cross-functional teams—to identify specific practices that allow the firm to address the various levels of uncertainty that characterize its markets. They identify three levels of uncertainty that confront firms operating in rapidly changing markets. First, potential customers cannot easily articulate needs that a new technology may fulfill. Consequently, NPD managers are uncertain about the market opportunities that a new technology offers. Second, NPD managers are uncertain about how to turn the new technologies into products that meet customer needs. This uncertainty arises, not only from customers' inability to articulate their needs, but also from managers' difficulties in translating technological advancements into product features and benefits. Finally, senior management faces uncertainty about how much capital to invest in pursuit of rapidly changing markets as well as when to invest. The study identifies six practices that help the firm address the uncertainty and risk inherent in its rapidly changing markets. For example, market research in this firm's NPD process focuses more on probing than it does on measuring. Involvement of prospective customers in idea generation and the use of prototypes early in the NPD process help the firm uncover customer needs and market opportunities. Large-scale, quantitative market research focuses primarily on determining market size and price points.     

Resources as dual sources of advantage: Implications for valuing entrepreneurial‐firm patents

Why and how do resources provide sources of competitive advantage? This study sheds new light on this central question of resource‐based theory by allowing a single resource—entrepreneurial‐firm patents—to play distinctive roles in different competitive arenas. As rights to exclude others, patents serve a well‐known role as legal safeguards in product markets. As quality signals, patents also could improve access and the terms of trade in factor input markets. Based on the financing activities of 370 venture‐backed semiconductor start‐ups, we provide new evidence that patents confer dual advantages in strategic factor markets, improved access and terms of trade, above and beyond their added product‐market protection. The study has important implications for empirical tests of resource‐based theory and the measurement of resource value. Copyright © 2013 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.