Developing an expert system on project evaluation: Pt II: Structuring the system

The work here described is the early stages of a programme to develop a series of Expert Systems (ES's) in the management of R&D. In particular, the development of a prototype ES using a package program Crystal Ver. 2.1 is the focus together with the problems encountered. The literature had suggested that the use of such packages facilitated the process for those exploring ES's. What was not clear from the literature or the program manuals was the limited range of problems which could be handled. The programs have a rigid structure such that unless the logic of the problem solving process matches that of the program, severe difficulties will ensue. This paper outlines the inherent structure of the programs and indicates the kind of problems which would fit. Specific problems which were encountered when trying to stretch the use of the program are explained in detail. It goes on to explain how these problems were got round using Lotus 1–2–3 which proved far more flexible in practice. This kind of understanding is essential if ES's are to become every-day tools of R&D management. The objective in developing the Expert System (ES) was for it to be advisory to those preparing project proposals for possible submission to higher management within the context of an R&D laboratory. Thus the intention was to capture the expertise of senior managers, make it available to more junior ones, and thereby improve the quality of their work. This concept proved to be naive in that the expertise proved to be so diffuse that a wholly new rationale to structure the expertise had to be developed. This process, the subsequent development into a prototype ES, and its evaluation, have already been published (Wilkinson, 1991). The literature on ES's had suggested that the use of available package programs was straight forward and that the real problem was in establishing the expertise to be used and in structuring it to fit the program. This too proved to be an over-simplification. When this work started, the exact nature of the package programs had not been spelt out adequately. The purpose of this paper, Part II, is to describe their inherent structure and the limitations which this imposes on the kind of problems for which they can be used. The insights gained in this work into the evaluation of projects and the inadequacies of previous evaluation techniques will form the contents of Part III of this series of papers.     

A genetic algorithm based heuristic for two machine no-wait flowshop scheduling problems with class setup times that minimizes maximum lateness

Machine scheduling problem has been extensively studied by researchers for many decades in view of its numerous applications on solving practical problems. Due to the complexity of this class of scheduling problems, various approximation solution approaches have been presented in the literature. In this paper, we present a genetic algorithm (GA) based heuristic approach to solve the problem of two machine no-wait flowshop scheduling problems that the setup time on the machines is class dependent, and the objective is to minimize the maximum lateness of the jobs processed. This class of machine scheduling problems has many practical applications in manufacturing industry, such as metal refinery operations, food processing industry and chemical products production processes, in which no interruption between subsequent processes is allowed and the products can be grouped into families. Extensive computation experiments have been conducted to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed algorithm. Results show the proposed methodology is suitable to be adopted for the development of an efficient scheduling plan for this class of problems in real life application.     

乙烯供需状况及发展对策

2000年全球共有乙烯装置230套，生产能力为92．7Mt/a，装置的平均规模为400kt/a，其中北美占33．77％，西欧占22．38％，亚洲为31．23％。亚洲是20世纪90年代全球乙烯生产能力增长最快的地区。我国在20世纪80年代后，乙烯发展速度加快，2000年乙烯生产能力已达5000 kt/a，但我国乙烯工业中尚存在着：装置规模小、生产成本高，布局不合理，原料资源结构不合理，综合能耗高等问题，需进一步解决。     

煤化工产业发展趋势及其对煤炭消费的影响

概要分析了煤化工的总体发展趋势,系统分析了煤化工两个重点发展领域即煤制化工材料和新型煤基化学燃料。以产业链分析的方法系统梳理了煤制化工材料产业的3个分支即煤制塑料、煤制化纤、煤制橡胶,比较分析了各类煤基液体化学燃料和煤基气体化学燃料的发展潜力,提出了煤基化学燃料的发展重点和需要解决的主要问题。分析计算了2012年煤化工的煤炭消费量和消费结构,不仅计算了煤化工的煤炭消费总量,更根据不同煤化工产品及其不同生产工艺,计算了分煤种的煤炭消费量。根据2020年煤化工产品发展预测及其生产工艺变化预测,计算了2020年煤化工的煤炭消费总量和分煤种的煤炭消费量。     

Food and environmental policies in Africa

Not only is Africa experiencing severe food production and nutrition problems, but environmental conditions, on which agricultural production ultimately depends, are deteriorating. A meeting of the African Ministers of Environment was held in Cairo last December, and an African solution to an African problem was put forth. The proposed program is examined in this paper. The usable extent of the pastoral area in the arid and semi-arid regions of Africa nas been reduced by 25% since 1968. At present only about 35% of the former area of slightly productive savannah is left. Africa's rich fishing grounds are being overfished and coastal regions are threatened by pollution. Africa's problems are linked with very high rates of population growth, rapid rates of urbanization, inappropriate development policies that have neglected the agricultural sector, and nonavailability of skilled manpower. The Cairo Program of African Cooperation included the following proposals: 8 continent-wide networks of institutions are to be established or strenghened in the fields of climatology, soils and fertilizers, water resources, energy, genetic resources, environmental monitoring, science and technology, and education and training; all available African skills and experience are to be applied to seek economically feasible, environmentally sound and socially acceptable solutions in certain regions; subregional cooperation is to be strenghened in terms of implementation of priority activities; 4 committees were established in areas of priority concerns; and a formula to provide US$32.5 million to finance the follow-up activities was approved.     

连接套动力管钳执行机构设计与性能分析

针对建筑施工中钢筋螺纹连接出现的漏拧或拧紧力矩不准、丝扣松动等现象,研发恒扭矩自动连接钢筋和连接套的动力管钳,并对关键执行机构进行性能分析。利用三维软件UG构建执行机构中开口齿轮、螺旋升角坡轨、腭板和腭板架等零件的三维数字模型;利用ANSYS Workbench软件求解出零件模型在模拟工况下承受极限力时的应力云图和变形云图,并根据计算结果完成关键部件的结构优化,为后续样机的试制提供重要的数据支持。     

An iterative approach to item-level tactical production and inventory planning

In this paper, we propose an iterative approach to jointly solve the problems of tactical safety stock placement and tactical production planning. These problems have traditionally been solved in isolation, even though both problems operate in the same decision making space and the outputs of one naturally serve as the inputs to the other. For simple supply chain network structures, two stages and one or many products, we provide sufficient conditions to guarantee the iteration algorithm’s termination. Through examples, we show how the algorithm works and prove its applicability on a realistic industrial-scale problem.     

瑞隆矿选煤厂的技改实践

对新建矿井型瑞隆选煤厂的工艺系统进行了介绍,对选煤厂投产后生产中出现跑冒堵塞、离心液的走向和压滤机滤液处理的管路问题进行了分析,根据管路改造原则,将存在问题管路进行了改造。另外,对生产中电能的消耗问题进行了分析,进行了一系列改造,改造后生产系统稳定、可靠,跑冒堵塞现象得到了彻底解决,工艺指标得到了提升,能源消耗降低,为企业带来巨大的经济效益。     

Design of the optimal feeding policy in an assembly system

This paper describes an innovative and integrated approach to component management optimization within a production/assembly system. In a mixed-models assembly process the handling of parts and components for each work station represents a substantial variable that can greatly affect job duration and efficiency. This paper is strictly related to Assembly to Order/Manufacturing to Order (ATO and MTO) systems, where lead time has to be very short and flexibility is at its maximum level. In Assembly to Order (ATO) or Make to Order (MTO) systems, the production is increasingly getting more customized in response to the demand, thanks to the progresses reached in both manufacturing and information technologies. It is becoming increasingly possible to assemble or make products specifically in response to the requests of either end customers or retailers. As a consequence of such customization, the design of the whole system must take into direct account several elements: parts warehouses location, feeding policies and feeding systems. In some cases the collection of parts and components required picking activities, in other the movement of entire units load.In several instances experts have analyzed the problems about material centralization/decentralization, storage policies and assembly feeding problem in different and independent ways, while the problem needs an integrated approach. While many researches regarding components allocation problems in ATO and MTO systems, did not consider feeding policies, material picking, packing activities and vehicles optimization, this paper cover focuses on filling such gap using an integrated framework that considers both aspects of the problem: the centralization/decentralization of components in order to minimize the total storage costs and the right feeding policies.Feeding problems in assembly lines are some of the most important aspects to consider during the analysis and design of an assembly system, to allow the maximization of efficiency and flexibility. To reach such goals, a multi-factorial analysis has been carried out during this experiment and will validate the introduced framework. An industrial application of the introduced framework is illustrated to explain its real significant production implication.     

Multi-agent-based transport planning in the newspaper industry

In many cases of today's planning tasks, the synchronization of production and distribution is becoming increasingly important in order to minimize costs and to maximize customer satisfaction. This is especially the case if transport schedules are closely connected to production schedules, as it is in the newspaper industry—where perishable goods are distributed immediately after production. In order to achieve the above mentioned competing objectives, a special kind of vehicle routing problem, the vehicle routing problem with time windows and cluster-dependent tour starts (VRPTWCD), has to be solved. Moreover, the varying print and post-processing schedules due to unknown editorial deadlines lead to the need for a dynamic online control of the newspaper production and distribution process. In this contribution, the outlined dynamic transport problem is solved online under consideration of unforeseen changes in production schedules. The solution concept is based on a multi-agent system consisting of, amongst others, several Edition and Vehicle Agents. This system is exemplarily applied to a real life application case of one of the largest German newspaper companies. It is shown that a static (centralized) optimization of the underlying problem would even lead to worse results in comparison to the current situation and that the appliance of the multi-agent system is suitable in the newspaper industry.     

Collaborative Prototyping: Cross‐Fertilization of Knowledge in Prototype‐Driven Problem Solving

This paper presents an inductive study that shows how collaborative prototyping across functional, hierarchical, and organizational boundaries can improve the overall prototyping process. Our combined action research and case study approach provides new insights into how collaborative prototyping can provide a platform for prototype‐driven problem solving in early new product development (NPD). Our findings have important implications for how to facilitate multistakeholder collaboration in prototyping and problem solving, and more generally for how to organize collaborative and open innovation processes. Our analysis reveals two levels of prototyping. Besides the more formal managerial level, we identify the informal designer level, where the actual practice of prototyping takes place. On this level, collaborative prototyping transforms the act of prototyping from an activity belonging exclusively to the domain of design engineers to an activity integral to NPD, with participants from within the organization (different functions and managers) and from outside (consultants and users). In effect, this collapses the discrete steps in the prototyping process (at the managerial level) to an essentially continuous process of iterative problem solving (at the designer level) that is centered around the collaborative prototype, which allows participants to see their suggestions implemented and exposing them to the design constraints. The study, moreover, shows how, at various stages of the prototyping process, the actual prototype was used as a tool for communication or development, thus serving as a platform for the cross‐fertilization of knowledge. In this way, collaborative prototyping leads to a better balance between functionality and usability; it translates usability problems into design changes, and it detects emerging usability problems through active engagement and experimentation. As such, the collaborative prototype acts as a boundary object to represent, understand, and transform knowledge across functional, hierarchical, and organizational boundaries. Our study also identifies some constraints in involving the appropriate stakeholders at the right time. The paper specifically elaborates on the role of users in collaborative prototyping, which is important in order to cover all phases of the problem‐solving cycle but triggers an interesting challenge due to the “reverse empathy” that a user may develop for the design constraints—parallel to the designer empathy for the user context. Finally, our study shows that despite the continuous nature of the (designer) practice of prototyping, there are certain windows of opportunities (at the managerial level) during which the collaborative prototyping approach actually leads to changes in the product design.     

Modelling a Research Portfolio Using AHP: A Group Decision Process

The problem of choosing a research portfolio has been in the literature for many years. Suggested solutions have ranged from simple scoring models to complex mathematical resource allocation models, but the acceptance rate has been low. In this paper we present an application of a model based on the Analytical Hierarchy Process to a group decision situation. The results are encouraging, showing the positive nature of a model as a focal point in the process. They show that the interactive nature of the methodology encourages the development of subjective estimates and their subsequent discussion. An attempt to counter the problems of biasing has also been made. The methodology presented is seen to be easy to use and adaptable, and becomes an integrating mechanism for the group.     

油田橡胶密封制品质量问题探讨

通过分析油田橡胶密封制品质量检测依据和质量现状,提出了制订适应油田特殊要求的石油行业系列质量标准的建议,并对其主要内容和关键指标进行了阐述,以此指标作为组织指导产品生产、质量检测评价、选型应用、保养维护等的依据,可以从根本上解决目前油田橡胶密封制品质量方面存在的问题。     

智能电网背景下供电企业辅助决策支持系统的应用实践

在智能电网建设发展趋势及国家电网公司、省公司两级数据中心的总体框架下,结合地市级供电企业管理精细化的实际需求,对地市级供电企业数据及应用集成的模式进行研究,提出了建立地市级分散式数据备份中心,并以此为数据基础,提出建设地市级供电企业辅助决策支持系统的基本设想。在此研究的基础上,集成了鞍山供电公司营销、生产、人力资源等核心业务数据库,整合了公司主营业务数据,建立了基于数据仓库的数据管理平台,基本解决了企业数据共享的问题。实践结果表明该系统具有实用性与有效性。     

Mutual impacts of product standardization and supply chain design

This paper deals with two major issues for industries; the product design and the supply chain design. These problems are usually solved separately, but in recent years, approaches were proposed to tackle these two problems together. In this paper, we investigate more precisely the links between the standardization of products or components, and the design of the supply chain. First, we show on a little example that there is a great interest to consider simultaneously these two decisions, and that solving these interdependent problems separately could result in a suboptimal, or even a bad, decision. Then, on a simplified problem issued from an industrial case study, we outline the impact of standardization choices on the structure of the supply chain and the gain that can be obtained from solving the problem as a unique compound optimization model. To illustrate the solutions of the problem, we propose graphics in order to visualize, in function of quantities and/or transportation costs, the best decision for the product standardization and for the supply chain design. Graphics also permit to anticipate the impacts of a variation of either quantities or transportation costs, from a specific situation. Such graphics they could be used in a decision aid tool to help companies in their choices. Finally, we show that costs and supply chain structure are highly impacted.     

实施安全评价 实现科学管控

介绍了新矿集团开展安全评价的具体实践,通过采取解剖分析、分类指导、严格考核、通力协作等措施,消除了一批煤矿安全隐患,解决了部分现场技术难题,促进了企业安全生产形势的好转。     

中国工业改革开放30年

中国工业改革最真切地体现和反映了迄今为止探索中国特色社会主义道路和进行经济体制改革的丰富内容和艰难经历,以及改革的主要成就和须继续解决的问题。第一阶段的工业改革,开始了奠定市场经济发展基础的观念革命:摆脱贫穷必须依靠自救自利,整个社会开始承认:个人和企业追求收入、利润和财富不仅是正当的个体理性行为,而且是对社会有益的合理行为。这一深刻的观念革命对于突破计划经济,转向市场经济具有决定性的意义。第二阶段的工业改革,开始向计划经济的各个环节大胆突破,确立社会主义市场经济为体制改革目标。在这一过程中,中国工业树立起了向更加开放的市场经济体制迈进的勇气、信心和决心。中国终于可以向世界宣称:我们不仅不害怕市场竞争,而且,欢迎市场竞争;不仅不反对市场经济,而且可以对世界所有的国家说:让市场经济来得更猛烈吧,中国工业做好了迎接经济全球化潮流的准备!第三阶段的工业改革,已经由主要解决从计划经济向市场经济转轨的问题,转变为不仅要继续解决从计划经济向市场经济转轨的问题,而且要解决世界各国市场经济有效运行所面临的一些共性的体制和政策问题了。从此,中国工业改革不仅是中国的事情,也是世界的事情!     

稠油脱水工艺的研究与改造

简述了稠油对原油脱水系统的影响，并介绍了在稳定原油脱水生产过程中，通过开展药剂实验选型，采用改造稠油与高温重油单独脱水工艺、提高温度以及运用稠油掺稀油原理，加大分水器处理量，合理调整参数等方法，成功解决了脱水过程中出现的系列难题．为今后稠油脱水处理提供了一个很好的借鉴。     

基于BP神经网络的黑龙江省煤炭产业发展前景分析

运用BP神经网络模型对黑龙江省煤炭市场需求进行了预测,并采用生产收入弹性、需求收入弹性和需求生产弹性差值对黑龙江省煤炭产业发展前景进行了综合分析,分析结果表明,黑龙江省煤炭产业在未来几年具有良好的发展情景和广阔的市场需求。