Speculative storage in imperfectly competitive markets

Markets for many commodities are characterized by imperfectly competitive production as well as substantial storage by speculators who are attracted by significant price volatility. We examine how speculative storage affects the behavior of an oligopoly producing a commodity for which demand is subject to random shocks. Speculators compete with consumers when purchasing the commodity and then subsequently compete with producers when selling their stocks, resulting in two opposing incentives: on the one hand, producers would like to increase production to capture future sales in advance by selling to speculators; while on the other hand, they would like to withhold production to deter speculation, thereby eliminating the additional supply from speculators in future periods. We find that the incentive to sell to speculators can be quite strong, potentially resulting in prices sufficiently high to drive consumers from the market. Furthermore, these incentives are non-monotonic in the number of producers: speculative storage occurs more frequently in a relatively concentrated oligopoly than in the extremes of monopoly or perfect competition.     

Challenges in reducing food losses at producers’ level: the case of Greek agricultural supply chain producers

Food losses need to be reduced throughout the Agricultural Supply Chain (ASC). In the EU producers’ food losses are substantial. Different ways have been suggested to reduce food losses at producers’ level such as investments in technology, changing regulations, and development of collaborative relationships. However, food loss reduction has not been yet achieved as it seems that producers are facing certain challenges which have not been yet identified. Thus, this study aims to explore the challenges that the EU ASC producers are facing in their efforts to reduce food losses using Contingency Theory. In the Greek ASC of peaches food loss levels of producers are substantial. Twenty-six in-depth semi-structured interviews have been conducted with Greek ASC producers. The analysis uncovered five major categories of challenges in reducing food losses at producers’ level which are: lack of technology adoption, lack of understanding of the changing market requirements and the changing regulations, lack of farm-related skills and the need for modern agricultural practices, collaboration issues, and the impact of climatic change. The impact of climatic change as well as collaboration were found to be the main challenges for reducing food losses. Future research directions as well as policy implications are provided in the end.     

基于百度指数的碳交易市场波动率的实证研究

碳交易市场波动率研究主要基于成交量数据对收益率GARCH效应的解释作用。在互联网时代可以有更新更为有效的方法来衡量碳交易市场的波动性。基于“碳交易”词条的百度指数,以湖北碳交易市场中的收益率为样本,本文通过对比使用引入成交量和搜索量的IGARCH（1,1）模型,实证研究发现传统的量价方程的确没有解释力,而百度指数可以对收益率的GARCH效应做出部分合理的解释,这可以在某种程度上反映湖北碳交易市场的交易信息流。     

Commodity price inflation, retail pass-through and market power

When commodity prices rise, wholesalers and retailers of products derived from basic commodities respond by passing along at least a portion of the price increase to consumers. In this paper we examine whether firms respond differently to positive commodity price shocks than to negative commodity price shocks; that is, whether commodity price volatility alters market power. We exploit recent volatility in food commodity prices over the period 2007-2010 to investigate how commodity price shocks translate into market power in two different vertically-structured food product industries: potatoes and fluid milk. For potatoes, we find both wholesale and retail market power decreases (increases) during periods of rising (falling) commodity prices. Moreover, price-cost margins widen a substantially greater degree in response to negative shocks than margins narrow in response to positive shocks, indicating that commodity price volatility increases market power. For fluid milk, we find that market power likewise declines during periods of rising commodity prices; however, market power does not significantly change during periods of falling commodity prices, suggesting that commodity price volatility decreases market power.     

Food scare crises and price volatility: The case of the BSE in Spain

Recent incidents of contaminated food products coupled with the widespread diffusion of news by mass media and the growing social concerns about food safety, have resulted in significant food market crises. One of the most highly publicized recent food scares involved Bovine Spongiform Encephalopathy (BSE). In our analysis, we evaluate the impacts from a BSE outbreak on the price volatility transmission along the Spanish food marketing chain by using a smooth transition conditional correlation (STCC) GARCH model. Our work is the first to assess price volatility responses to food scares. Results suggest that two distinct regimes involving different price volatility behavior can be distinguished, one characterized by turbulent markets and another where markets are calming down.     

How pastoralists perceive and respond to market opportunities: The case of the Horn of Africa

This article examines how pastoralists of the Horn of Africa negotiate the need for herd mobility (production) under conditions of variable rainfall and grazing conditions, with the necessity to market animals at fixed market locations. It addresses a set of related questions: (1) are herder mobility and other production decisions being altered by improved market opportunities; (2) what roles do markets play in pastoralist drought and drought recovery strategies; (3) which groups of producers are taking advantage of and/or benefiting from which market chains; and (4) what factors other than price help to explain why and when pastoralists sell livestock? The article concludes that macro-economic forecasts about supply response in the region may be overly optimistic and off target, because they fail to appreciate the non-price factors that influence pastoralist households’ decisions to sell livestock.     

Government regulation and quality in the US beef market

We show how government regulation played a critical role in shaping the beef industry over the past century. Technological developments in the late 19th century led to a highly concentrated meatpacking industry and fostered a national market for beef in the US, and the development of a national market for beef led to regulations to ensure quality uniformity, especially USDA grading. We explain the problems with beef quality created by USDA grading using tools from information economics. Because USDA’s fairly coarse grading system failed to measure significant aspects of beef quality, beef production suffered from the multi-tasking problem, which led producers to focus on producing larger quantities of beef while ignoring quality issues. We show that producing high quality beef requires either ex ante input controls or ex post sorting. In turn, we show how newly developed programs such as USDA quality certification and branding are incentivizing production of higher beef quality and dealing with information problems arising under USDA grading. We conclude with the implications of the regulatory history for current regulation of beef markets.     

高频视角下创业板市场的非对称尾部风险度量

创业板汇集了大批高成长性的科技企业,面临着高度不确定的市场风险。本文考虑创业板市场的非对称性和厚尾性,在偏t分布下利用5分钟高频数据构建已实现GARCH模型衡量其波动率,同时考虑到微观结构噪声影响,在RV的基础上引入对噪声稳健的BPV已实现测度,从而提升高频VaR模型的预测准确性。对创业板指和深证成指的实证结果表明,已实现GARCH模型在参数显著性和模型预测准确性方面均优于低频下的ARMA-fGARCH-VaR模型;基于RV和BPV的已实现模型没有显著差异;相比于深市主板,创业板面临的尾部风险更大。同时,为更好地监测与管控创业板市场风险,从政府和创业企业两个层面提出对策建议。     

中国再生资源价格长期波动特征及其对经济的影响研究

尽管再生资源在工业生产中替代原生资源的比例逐渐升高,但对再生资源价格波动的特征及对经济的影响尚缺乏研究。本文以再生铜为例,采用GRACH族模型分析发现,我国再生铜价格的波动存在一定集聚性和持续性,价格波动比较缓慢。且负向冲击对再生铜价格波动的影响比正向冲击大,存在显著的杠杆效应。此外,再生铜价波动具有显著的GARCH-M效应,即预期的风险对再生铜价格波动具有正向影响。然后采用VAR模型和脉冲响应函数等方法,引入产出、投资、消费和通货膨胀率变动等宏观经济变量,定量分析了再生资源价格波动与中国经济之间的关系。检验结果表明：再生铜价作为建筑业重要的生产资料,其价格上涨短期内 促使GDP增长,但长期则抑制投资,最终可能影响GDP增长并提高通货膨胀率,即再生铜价格上涨对国家经济发展有不利影响。本文的实证结果揭示出,对中国经济的影响而言,废旧金属价格的变动只是某种表象,经济增长和通货膨胀率变动的背后是更为复杂的原因,问题的实质是以固定投资拉动经济增长的发展模式和部分地区对房地产业过度依赖的产业结构的变化等对中国经济产生的根本性的影响。     

Export restrictions – Do consumers really benefit? The wheat-to-bread supply chain in Serbia

Our approach combines price transmission and gross margin analysis at different stages of the wheat-to-bread supply chain. Results suggest that the effects of export restrictions on the end consumer prices for bread, and thus food price inflation, heavily depend on the price behavior of the intermediates. In contrast to theory, consumers in Serbia experienced welfare losses despite comprehensive governmental market interventions. In particular, consumers were confronted with increasing flour and bread prices, which cannot be fully explained by increasing production costs, whereas mills, bakeries and retailers increased their profits. Thus, export controls in combination with high price volatility in the supply chain have to be considered as a further factor driving food price inflation.     

European consumer preferences for beef with nutrition and health claims: A multi-country investigation using discrete choice experiments

The European Union (EU) nutrition labelling policy aims to facilitate consumers’ food choice, stimulate innovation and facilitate the circulation of foods bearing claims across countries. However, the beef industry has not fully taken advantage of utilizing nutrition and health claims based on the EU nutrition labelling policy to differentiate beef products in the market. This study investigates consumer preferences for nutrition and health claims on lean beef steak. Two choice experiments were conducted among 2400 beef consumers in four EU countries (Belgium, France, the Netherlands, United and United Kingdom). Multinomial logit and error component models were estimated. Our results generally suggest that consumer valuation of nutritional and health claims varies across countries. In Belgium, the Netherlands and France, nutrition and health claims on saturated fat yielded higher utilities than claims on protein and/or iron, while the opposite was found among consumers in the UK. The results imply that marketing opportunities related to nutrition and health claims on beef are promising, but that different nutritional marketing strategies are necessary within different countries.     

Risk and Return in the U.S. Housing Market: A Cross-Sectional Asset-Pricing Approach

This article carries out an asset-pricing analysis of the U.S. metropolitan housing market. We use ZIP code–level housing data to study the cross-sectional role of volatility, price level, stock market risk and idiosyncratic volatility in explaining housing returns. While the related literature tends to focus on the dynamic role of volatility and housing returns within submarkets over time, our risk–return analysis is cross-sectional and covers the national U.S. metropolitan housing market. The study provides a number of important findings on the asset-pricing features of the U.S. housing market. Specifically, we find (i) a positive relation between housing returns and volatility, with returns rising by 2.48% annually for a 10% rise in volatility, (ii) a positive but diminishing price effect on returns and (iii) that stock market risk is priced directionally in the housing market. Our results on the return-volatility-price relation are robust to (i) metropolitan statistical area clustering effects and (ii) differences in socioeconomic characteristics among submarkets related to income, employment rate, managerial employment, owner-occupied housing, gross rent and population density.     

Smallholder market participation under transactions costs: Maize supply and fertilizer demand in Kenya

This paper assessed the effects of transactions costs—relative to price and non-price factors—on smallholder marketed surplus and input use in Kenya. A selectivity model was used that accounts for the effects of transactions costs, assets, technology, and support services in promoting input use and generating a marketable surplus. Output supply and input demand responses to changes in transactions costs and price and non-price factors were estimated and decomposed into market entry and intensity. The results showed that while transactions costs indeed have significant negative effects on market participation, institutional innovations—such as group marketing—are also emerging to mitigate the costs of accessing markets. Output price has no effect on output market entry and only provides incentives for increased supply by sellers. On the other hand, both price and non-price factors have significant influence on adoption and intensity of input use. Overall, the findings suggest that policy options are available other than price policies to promote input use and marketed surplus. The paper concludes with implications for policy to induce greater input–output market participation among smallholders in Africa.     

PRICES,SPATIAL COMPETITION AND HETEROGENEOUS PRODUCERS: AN EMPIRICAL TEST*

Homogeneous‐producer models attribute lower prices in denser markets solely to lower optimal markups. I argue here that when producers have different production costs, competition‐driven selection on costs also reduces prices. This selection mechanism can be distinguished from the homogenous‐producer case because it implies that higher density leads not only to lower average prices, but to declines in upper‐bound prices and price dispersion as well. I find empirical support for this mechanism in the prices of ready‐mixed concrete plants. I also show these findings do not simply reflect lower factor prices in dense markets, but result instead because dense‐market producers are more efficient.     

A protectionist foodgrain price policy : The case of rice in Panama

Panama has pursued a protectionist price policy for rice, with domestic prices well above the world market level. The government marketing authority purchases sufficient rice to support the established price level and stores or exports the surplus. Although producers benefit, this policy imposes significant costs on consumers, government expenditures and economic efficiency. One policy recommendation is to bring domestic prices in line with the international level. Although free trade is one possibility, a market stabilization programme could be retained. At a minimum Panama's rice price should reflect domestic demand and not production costs. The unfavourable rice-fertilizer price ratio also deserves attention.     

Competitiveness and trade potential of India’s dairy industry

India has become the world’s largest milk producer but its dairy industry lacks market access. This paper determines how world dairy policy reforms would affect dairy production and trade in India and the competitiveness of its dairy industry. We measure nominal protection coefficient for India’s dairy products to determine level and change in competitiveness between 1975 and 2001. We estimate parameters of domestic demand for and supply of raw milk and whole milk powder to determine how a world price increase would affect domestic milk production and whole milk powder exports. Results show that India’s dairy products lack export competitiveness. But with less distorted world dairy markets, India could be competitive and would emerge as a net exporter of whole milk powder, benefiting dairy industries and milk producers in India.     

Asymmetric price adjustments: A supply side approach

Using a model of dynamic price competition, we provide an explanation from the supply side for the well-established observation that output prices react faster in response to input cost increases than to decreases. When costs decline, the opportunity of profitable storing in anticipation of higher future costs allows competitive firms to coordinate on prices above current marginal costs. The initial price response is only partial and profitable storing relaxes competition. Conversely, when costs rise, storing is not beneficial in anticipation of lower future costs and firms immediately adjust their prices to current marginal costs, which entails the standard Bertrand outcome. Our results shed new light on the empirical evidence about asymmetric pricing and can stimulate further empirical investigation on this puzzle.     

Common Knowledge Reference Price and Asymmetric Price Adjustments

There is abundant empirical evidence showing that asymmetric price adjustments exist in a wide variety of markets. Prices tend to rise faster when costs rise, relative to the rate at which prices drop when costs fall. This paper argues that a common knowledge reference price—a government suggested retail price—eases the existence of asymmetric price adjustments in a scenario where costs are ever-increasing. Our analysis of the Colombian retail gasoline market suggests that when costs rise by more than the reference price, prices tend to rise more slowly relative to when costs grow by less than the reference price.     

Search Costs, Lags and Prices at the Pump

Evidence is mounting that long lags and asymmetric price responses to changes in wholesale prices are characteristic of many retail markets. Although long lags are often attributed to search costs, little empirical evidence exists to support this claim. The analysis offered in this paper compares price responses in gasoline and diesel markets in 15 U.S. cities. Search costs vary across these two markets, and the evidence indicates a much faster response in the diesel market where search costs are lower. Asymmetric responses, where prices rise faster than they fall, are also evident in the data. While asymmetric responses have been attributed to oligopolistic behavior, the arguments presented in this paper point to search theory as an alternative explanation.     

Market Efficiency and Return Statistics: Evidence from Real Estate and Stock Markets Using a Present-Value Approach

This paper develops a methodology to identify asset price response to news in the framework of the Campbell–Shiller log-linear present-value equation. We further show that a slow price adjustment in real estate markets not only induces a high serial autocorrelation in excess returns, but also dampens the return volatility and the correlation with excess returns in other asset markets. Using Hong Kong real estate and stock market data, we find that the quarterly real estate price assimilates only about half the effect of market news, whereas the quarterly stock price incorporates the news fully. Our analysis identifies a cumulative price adjustment that recovers lost information in real estate returns due to market inefficiency and thereby restores the real estate return volatility and the correlation between real estate and stock markets.