Global developments in the competition for land from biofuels

The potential global demand for biofuels and the implications of this for land use and its interaction with food agriculture is reviewed. It is expected that biofuels will form an important element of global transport energy mix (in the order of 20–30% of total requirement) over the next 40 years and beyond. Over this time, there will be a transition from so called first generation biofuels, based on commodity agricultural crops with food/feed uses, to advanced biofuels, sometimes called second and third generation biofuels, based primarily upon lignocellulosic feedstocks. It remains unclear whether these advanced biofuels, based on lignocellulosic materials, will entirely replace first generation or if second generation will be supplemental to first generation. This expansion in biofuels will be coupled to a substantial increase in alternative fuels (electricity, hydrogen, biogas and natural gas) and modal shifts. Biofuel production from agricultural commodity crops that exhibit strong sustainability criteria will remain important (e.g. sugarcane) with supportive and competitive aspects for food security.Land requirement projections estimated for a range of potential biofuel development trajectories range widely and are inherently uncertain. Under the most active scenario that delivers substantive greenhouse gas reductions in transport by 2050 (relative to 2005 levels), approximately 100 Mha of additional land is projected. In the ‘business-as-usual’ scenario, in which transport energy demand rises by 80% by 2050 from present levels, a land use requirement of 650 Mha is projected.Significant potential exists for producing biofuels that possess high productivity and sustainability profiles through continued research, development and demonstration. Policy and regulation at a global level, that focuses biofuel development on these goals in ways that are synergistic with food agriculture, will simultaneously help to decarbonise transport and maintain a diverse and financially robust agricultural (and forestry) sector.     

Biofuels and the poor: Global impact pathways of biofuels on agricultural markets

This study seeks to assess the future impacts of biofuel production on regional agricultural and related sectors over the next decade with a specific focus on the vulnerable regions of developing nations. Using a modification of the GTAP modeling platform to account for the global interactions of regional biofuel and food markets, the analysis shows that biofuel production levels depend on the assumption about the future price of energy and the nature of the substitutability between biofuels and petroleum-based transport fuels. Low energy prices reduce the demand for biofuels and thus require greater government support to meet the desired production targets. At the other extreme, when prices are high and there is scope for substituting biofuels for petroleum-based fuels, the volume of biofuels produced will exceed the mandates. Even when biofuels are being mainly produced in developed countries, our results indicate that there are impact pathways that extend far beyond the borders of the US, Brazil and the EU. Prices of feedstock and non-feedstock commodities rise in developing countries. There is also a rise in value added from the agricultural sector—a gain that is enjoyed by the owners of land and labor, including unskilled. Hence, to the extent that agriculture is a key sector in getting growth started and addressing poverty needs, the emergence of biofuels can (in this way at least) be a positive force.     

Impact of water scarcity in Australia on global food security in an era of climate change

Australia is a major food exporting country. Recent droughts reduced dryland farming production and the volume of water allocated to irrigated agriculture, with a resulting decline in aggregate agricultural production and exports. This paper analyses the possible impact of increased water scarcity on Australian agricultural production and the magnitude of subsequent impacts on global food security. Using the Australian Bureau of Statistics (ABS) data on land and water use coupled with a hydro-economic stochastic modelling approach, the impacts of reduced agricultural production in the southern Murray–Darling Basin, and more generally for Australia, are analysed. Changes in agricultural activity, reduction in agricultural exports and altered composition of products exported attributed to the severe 2000–2009 drought are also analysed to highlight the implications for global food security. The impact of climate change on food production is examined. The analysis shows that climate change, when modelled as the extreme case, along with other factors such as land use, will impact Australian food exports. Despite its relatively small contribution to total global food supply, Australia’s contribution to international trade in wheat, meat and dairy products is substantial and could affect global food prices. Furthermore, Australia’s agricultural exports are of disproportionate importance within the South- and South–East Asian and Oceania region, both in terms of volume and for strategic reasons. Adaptation along with investment in agriculture production is needed to maintain Australian agricultural production and enhance global food security.     

Models of world food supply,demand and nutrition

Computer simulation of the world problematique offers a policy maker an interesting opportunity to see the dynamics of relationships within and between the global subsystems of which food and agriculture is one. The four major modelling studies reviewed in this article make assumptions about the possible level of food supply, technological and economic impacts on production, ecological consequences, and social and political factors influencing demand. Following their analysis of agricultural data inputs in all these areas, the authors discuss the type of policy measures likely to be recommended on the basis of global modelling.     

Toward a food secure future: Ensuring food security for sustainable human development in Sub-Saharan Africa

Food security remains a top development priority and global concern. It is enshrined in the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development in Sustainable Development Goal two. Food security is also a core component of the human development and capability paradigm, since food access and entitlements are critical for reinforcing essential human capabilities. In introducing this special issue, this paper argues that agriculture is central to improving food security and reducing poverty in Africa. It suggests that realizing the potential of agriculture in Africa requires rapid increases in land productivity and increases in agricultural yields. A science-based approach that integrates gender and sustainability is critical to meet this goal, through the design and implementation of policies that improve the availability farm inputs and farm technology. The paper concludes by introducing the papers in this special issue.     

European dietary patterns and their associated land use: Variation between and within countries

This paper determines the cropland use associated with the dietary patterns of 16 European countries and investigates sources of variation in land use between and within these countries. The analysis combines food availability data at the household level with country-specific land use data for food items. The household food availability data is obtained from a standardized and post-harmonized databank, developed in the Data Food Networking Project (DAFNE). The results show large differences between the land use of the 16 European countries, ranging from ±1500 m² (Ireland) to ±3000 m² (Malta) to supply an average person’s food demand. Major reasons for this divergence include disparities in total caloric food availability and in national yields. The composition of the diet is only a minor source of variation. Using food consumption data at the household level makes it also possible to look for sources of variation within countries. This paper investigates sources of variation within countries by examining the influence of education of the household head on land use associated with food consumption. The analysis shows that diets of people with only elementary education need on average 20% more land than diets of people with a higher education (2302 m² and 1948 m², respectively). The basis of this difference is the higher caloric availability for people with only an elementary education; the influence of differences in the composition of the diet is negligible. Variation in land use between countries is thus caused by the different agricultural productivities and caloric availabilities, and the major source of variation within countries is the caloric availability. The composition of the diet is only a minor source of variation, both between and within countries. The results implicate that highly educated people have a lower demand for land.     

我国耕地保护对策研究

保障发展和保护耕地资源这个两难命题,历史性地摆在我们面前。通过严格的规划、落实,我国耕地减少速度得到了有效遏制。但是,粮食安全问题依然存在,耕地保护形势依然严峻,耕地保护的压力依然很重,守住18亿亩耕地红线依然面临很大挑战。作者认为,我国应当通过建立耕地保护的专门法律制度,节约用地、合理规划建设用地,加强耕地生态环境治理、提高耕地质量,积极稳妥开发、复垦、整理宜农荒地,推行耕地储备制度,加大破坏耕地行为的责任追究力度等路径,来达到耕地保护的目标。     

Do markets and trade help or hurt the global food system adapt to climate change?

Rapidly expanding global trade in the past three decades has lifted millions out of people out of poverty. Trade has also reduced manufacturing wages in high income countries and made entire industries uncompetitive in some communities, giving rise to nationalist politics that seek to stop or reverse further trade expansion in the United States and Europe. Given complex and uncertain political support for trade, how might changes in trade policy affect the global food system’s ability to adapt to climate change? Here we argue that we can best understand food security in a changing climate as a double exposure: the exposure of people and processes to both economic and climate-related shocks and stressors. Trade can help us adapt to climate change, or not. If trade restrictions proliferate, double exposure to both a rapidly changing climate and volatile markets will likely jeopardize the food security of millions. A changing climate will present both opportunities and challenges for the global food system, and adapting to its many impacts will affect food availability, food access, food utilization and food security stability for the poorest people across the world. Global trade can continue to play a central role in assuring that global food system adapts to a changing climate. This potential will only be realized, however, if trade is managed in ways that maximize the benefits of broadened access to new markets while minimizing the risks of increased exposure to international competition and market volatility. For regions like Africa, for example, enhanced transportation networks combined with greater national reserves of cash and enhanced social safety nets could reduce the impact of ‘double exposure’ on food security.     

The sustainability and resilience of global water and food systems: Political analysis of the interplay between security,resource scarcity,political systems and global trade

This article looks at the interrelationship between water and food security. More specifically, it examines the resilience and sustainability of water and food systems to shocks and stresses linked to different levels and intensity of conflict, global trade and climate change. The article makes four points: (1) that resource scarcity as a driver of conflict is inconclusive especially at regional and national levels (2) most insecurities surrounding water and food are explained by political power, social and gender relations; (3) global trade has enabled national food and water security, but that is now threatened by increasing food prices, food sovereignty movements and land ‘grabbing’ (4) and that water and food security will face major challenges under conditions of climate change.     

Global water crisis and future food security in an era of climate change

Food policy should serve humanity by advancing the humane goals of eradicating extreme poverty and hunger. However, these goals have recently been challenged by emerging forces including climate change, water scarcity, the energy crisis as well as the credit crisis. This paper analyses the overall role of these forces and population growth in redefining global food security. Specifically, global water supply and demand as well as the linkages between water supply and food security are examined. The analysis reveals that the water for food security situation is intricate and might get daunting if no action is taken. Investments are needed today for enhancing future food security; this requires action on several fronts, including tackling climate change, preserving land and conserving water, reducing the energy footprint in food systems, developing and adopting climate resilient varieties, modernising irrigation infrastructure, shoring up domestic food supplies, reforming international food trade, and responding to other global challenges.     

REDD policy impacts on the agri-food sector and food security

Recent research shows that the combined contributions of deforestation, forest degradation and peat land emissions account for about 15% of greenhouse gas emissions. The REDD policy which preserves forests and values standing forests, enables substantial emission reductions. Since agricultural production and area expansion is a primary driver of tropical deforestation, REDD policies might limit the expansion possibilities of agricultural land use and therefore influence competitiveness of the agricultural sector, agricultural prices, trade patterns, agricultural production and therefore food security in the world. This paper studies the impact of REDD policies on the agri-food sector and food security with a global CGE model called MAGNET using a scenario approach. It focuses on the restrictions on agricultural land expansion within the REDD policy package. Simulation results show that REDD policies start to affect the agri-food sector in some lower developed countries if more than 15% of potentially available agricultural areas are protected from deforestation. A stringent REDD policy that protects 90% of land reserves that could potentially be used for agriculture production results in a global real agricultural price increase of almost 7.6%, and a worldwide agricultural production decrease of 1.7%. Regional differences are large, with real agricultural price changes ranging from 4% in North America to about 24% in Sub-Saharan Africa and South-East Asia. Food access rapidly deteriorates for low-income population in these regions in the case of high forest protection levels. Compensatory payments are necessary from a food security point of view if the level of forest protection increases. Our results indicate that from a food security perspective REDD policy should stop short of trying to protect more than 40% of global carbon if the compensation mechanism is not effectively implemented within REDD.     

Sri Lanka's bid to regain food self-sufficiency

Once self-sufficient in food, colonial influences have transformed Sri Lanka's agriculture over the past century. With rice production failing to meet demand and spices giving way to tea and rubber, Sri Lanka now imports 40% of its food needs. Now the government is putting into effect a plan intended to make the country self-sufficient again. The ambitious programme includes cultivation of 320 000 acres of new land and the resettlement of about three-quarters of a million people. John Madeley reports on the difficulties which have been encountered and the prospects for success.     

The impact of SME internationalization on innovation: The mediating role of market and entrepreneurial orientation

In today's highly competitive global environment, even small and medium-sized enterprises (SMEs) need to make product and process innovations in order to outperform the competition and satisfy global customers. Investigating the success factors of innovation performance has become critical for the survival and competitiveness of SMEs. The aim of this study is to explore the impact of the degree of internationalization (DoI) on innovation performance through the mediating factors of market and entrepreneurial orientation in the context of emerging-market SMEs. We tested our model and hypotheses with 235 SMEs in the United Arab Emirates, which is an emerging market. The results obtained from partial least squares estimates indicate that the degree of internationalization positively affects innovation performance and, more importantly, that this relationship is indirect and fully mediated by market and entrepreneurial orientation for SMEs. These results shed light on the mechanism of the effect of DoI on innovation performance in the emerging-market SME context.     

基于战略联盟的生物制药企业技术合作创新模式研究

随着生物技术发展、经济全球化和市场需求的风云变幻,市场的不确定性风险越来越大,技术创新正在成为生物制药企业未来增长的主要源泉。在激烈的市场竞争当中,单个企业间的竞争正在逐渐演变成联盟之间的技术竞争。本文分析并建立横向联盟技术创新模式、纵向联盟技术创新模式和补缺联盟技术创新模式,以此推进生物制药企业技术合作创新的研究。     

当前世界经济政治局势对中国石油企业“走出去”的影响

近期世界经济政治局势的剧烈变化,对中国石油企业继续实施＂走出去＂战略带来诸多影响。从经济层面看,世界经济危机对国际石油业产生的影响是间接的。世界石油市场供需总量上升的长期趋势没有改变;世界经济危机通过影响石油需求和国际原油价格,进而影响到石油企业的收益和生产效率。相比之下,从地缘政治层面看,世界经济危机对中国石油企业＂走出去＂产生的影响更为直接。中东北非地区的政治动荡将改变这一地区的地缘政治格局,强化西方对中东石油资源的掌控,并可能提高石油的政治风险,从而对石油企业国际化经营过程中的资金、人力、物力、组织和管理产生影响。在未来较长一段时期内,国际油价有可能在低于100美元/桶的中等价位波动。相对较低的石油价格将会减弱各资源国的资源民族主义热潮,促进他们对外开放石油资源与市场,这对于正在积极谋求更大规模＂走出去＂的中国石油企业是一个利好因素。     

Food sovereignty and agricultural trade policy commitments: How much leeway do West African nations have?

The 2008 food crisis has challenged the political legitimacy and economic efficiency of the liberalization of international agricultural trade. An alternative vision defended by the food sovereignty movement is that long-term food security cannot rely on dependency on food imports, but must be built on the development of domestic production with enough barrier protection to shelter it from world price fluctuations and unfair trading.The purpose of this paper is to look into whether the West African nations can achieve food sovereignty given their various trade commitments and other external constraints. The particularity of our approach is to combine a historical economic analysis with a political approach to food sovereignty and trade commitments.Our results suggest that external brakes on the development of food sovereignty policies are marginal, as the countries still have unused room for manoeuvre to protect their smallholder agriculture under the terms of draft World Trade Organization agreements and Economic Partnership Agreements and under the international financial institutions’ recommendations. Rather the international environment seems to be instrumented by West African states that do not manage to secure a national political consensus to drive structural reforms deemed vital and further the food security of the urban populations over the marginalized rural populations. Recently, the regional integration process has made headway with a common agricultural support and protection policy project that could herald an internal political balance more conducive to food-producing agriculture.     

FDI、行业技术差距与企业自主创新——基于中国行业数据的经验研究

利用中国全部工业企业中37个行业的数据,实证研究了FDI对我国民族企业自主创新产生的促进作用。结果表明,随着外资进入程度的加强,内外资企业之间的竞争越激烈,越有利于民族企业创新能力的提高;且这种促进作用因行业技术差距而异;此外,政府的援助程度越强,越有利于内资企业的自主创新,且这种促进作用随着内外资企业之间技术差距的扩大而增强。     

The political economy of a productivist agriculture: New Zealand dairy discourses

The New Zealand dairy industry faces political and commercial pressure to improve its environmental performance on the one hand while maintaining economic efficiency and commercial competitiveness in a global marketplace on the other. The growing scale and intensity of dairy production have caused significant cumulative environmental impacts. The industry response to political pressures for improved environmental performance has involved a narrow focus on water quality and pasture management. It is consistent with an approach which seeks to maintain size and industrial leverage in the face of global trade competition. This paper explores the productivist constructions of environmental management by the New Zealand dairy industry in the context of global economic competition and notes an alternative response inspired by an ethic of sustainability. It suggests that despite global pressures of economic competition, it is possible to incorporate non-material values into farm management provided these are recognised and rewarded.     

Population,food and agricultural development: A medium-term view

Trends identified in 86 developing countries over the last 15–20 years indicate that the increase in food production was less than that in domestic demand for food in as many as 53, and 34 failed even to keep up with population growth. The author presents the likely perspective for the next 10 years. His analysis focuses on accelerating the increase in food production; an equitable and efficient distribution particularly among the poorer sections of the population; increasing employment in agriculture and related sectors; and increasing the share of developing countries in expanded trade in agriculture products.     

How do stakeholder interactions influence national food security policy in the Caribbean? The case of Saint Lucia

Increasingly, multi-stakeholder processes have been recognized as being necessary to the development of public policies seeking to promote systemic innovation in response to complex and multidimensional challenges, such as household food security, rural development, and environmental change. Saint Lucia, a small island developing state located in the Caribbean, has been grappling with a wide range of agriculture, food and nutrition security challenges with varying degrees of policy success. Recognizing the significance of the challenge, this paper explores the nature of the stakeholder interactions surrounding the development of Saint Lucia’s 2009–2015 National Agricultural Policy and considers some of the implications for food and agriculture-related policy outcomes. Results reveal a general lack of supportive conditions for effective multi-stakeholder processes, including low stakeholder participation levels, conflicting roles of different forms of social capital in the interactions between stakeholders, and missing “boundary” organizations capable of facilitating a transition towards more flexible and adaptive institutions, enhanced knowledge exchange and learning, and greater trust among stakeholders in the policy network. Future avenues for research and development are subsequently identified.