基于产权性质分类的上市公司债务治理效应分析

文章在分析了中国上市公司债务治理效应弱化的原因的基础上,根据产权性质对上市公司进行分类,通过回归分析,分别检验了国有控股上市公司和非国有控股上市公司债务治理效应存在的差异.研究发现,债务融资没有起到抑制经理代理成本和提高公司绩效(公司价值)的作用,没有发挥积极的治理功能;相对于非国有控股上市公司,国有控股上市公司的债务治理效应较低.     

The effects of foreign ownership on competition in the banking industry: The key role of financial reforms

This study examines the impact of foreign ownership on bank competition and discusses whether the relation changes with various proxies of financial reform. We contribute to the extant literature by using the bank-level ratio of foreign ownership and applying five individual sub-indices of financial reforms from 50 countries. Within the emerging Asia and Middle East and North Africa (MENA) countries, our findings show that a higher ratio of foreign ownership in a bank can enhance competition, whereas a liberalization policy on banking supervision instead mitigates this positive relation between foreign ownership and competition. Conversely, the liberalization on bank privatization in Latin America and Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) countries significantly increases competition. Thus, financial reforms do matter to the foreign ownership-bank competition nexus.     

终极股东控制权、现金流权分离与债务期限结构选择

对终极股东控制权、现金流权分离与债务期限结构选择之间的关系做了实证研究,并且研究了不同法律制度环境下两权分离对债务期限结构选择的影响,结果表明:两权分离度与债务期限结构负相关;法律制度环境的改善在一定程度上减缓了第一大股东与债务期限结构的负相关关系,却加剧了两权分离度与债务期限结构的负相关关系。     

双循环格局下的竞争中性与国企改革——来自国有资本差异化功能的证据

本文在一般均衡框架下构建理论模型,从微观视角考察国有资本功能在国有、民营两部门中的差异,讨论"双循环"战略下如何有效配置国有资本,推动竞争中性框架的建立。研究表明:国有资本在理论上具有正向的经济效率并促进企业积极承担社会责任,但经验证据显示其经济效率偏低,且在国有和民营部门有较大差异。在国有部门中,国有资本的经济效率显著低于民营企业,且在低市场竞争度、高行政进入壁垒行业中尤为突出,证实了国企的垄断经营和不公平竞争;尽管在下游竞争性行业表现了较高效率,但主要是因为挤占了私营部门的投资空间。在民营部门中,国有资本具有积极的经济效率和社会责任。但主要是通过降低其税负、缓解融资约束并对企业捐赠等承担社会责任的行为形成补偿和激励等行为提高了其经济效率,而非国有资本理论上的市场化收益性功能。国有资本在国有和私营部门差异化的功能和经济效率验证了民营企业仍处于非中性的竞争环境,双循环格局可在上游垄断性部门引入民营资本和竞争机制,在下游竞争性行业则深化混合所有制改革以提高国企效率,释放出因国有部门过度举债挤占的私营部门投资空间,健全国有资本要素的市场化配置,给予民营企业竞争中性的平等国民待遇。     

Ownership concentration and financial policy of China's listed firms

This study examines the role of ownership concentration, measured by the top-five shareholders' equity ownership, in shaping corporate finance policies in China. Among privately-owned enterprises (POEs), ownership concentration has negative and positive effects on their debt and cash reserves, respectively, consistent with controlling shareholders' incentives to stave off business failures and ride out adverse future circumstances. These effects are more pronounced if POEs have high market-to-book, suggesting that growth opportunities heighten their controlling shareholders' desire to avoid debt and hoard cash. Although ownership concentration has similar effects on debt and cash in state-owned enterprises (SOEs), these effects in SOEs appear to reflect management discretion or conservatism. Our evidence suggests that ownership concentration is a key driver of corporate finance in an emerging market, but private and state ownership concentrations have seemingly similar but qualitatively different consequences.     

Oil price uncertainty and the cost of debt: Evidence from the Chinese bond market

This paper explores the impact of oil price uncertainty affects the cost of debt in China. By analyzing the bond data from 2008 to 2019 in China, we find that oil price fluctuation boost bond offering spread, denoting that oil price uncertainty may increase the cost of debt. This increase is likely due to higher default risks resulting from the heightened oil price uncertainty. Moreover, non-state-owned firms and those in the energy industry are more susceptible to the effects of oil price volatility. Our findings also reveal an asymmetric effect of oil price uncertainty on the cost of debt, with a stronger impact observed from positive uncertainty compared to negative uncertainty. This study contributes to the current understanding of the ways in which oil price uncertainty impacts the cost of debt in an emerging country.     

Impacts of Ownership Balance and Nonexecutive Directors on Bank Performance and Risk Taking: Evidence from City Commercial Banks in China

This paper investigates the impacts of nongovernmental stake, ownership balance, and nonexecutive directors on bank performance and risk taking in city commercial banks (CCBs) in China. We find that ownership balance can improve CCBs’ financial performance and reduce their bankruptcy risk as well as nonperforming loan level. Nonexecutive directors can help reduce bankruptcy risk, but have no significant effect on performance or nonperforming loans. The impacts of ownership balance and nonexecutive directors become more prominent when the nongovernmental stake is relatively high, suggesting that mixed ownership reform can promote bank performance and risk control via these two avenues.     

企业债务违约风险与货币政策立场——微观财务信息的宏观预测价值

文章基于2004年第一季度至2019年第三季度数据，构建汇总层面的利息偿付倍数、现金持有水平以及会计盈余作为企业债务违约风险的代理变量，考察其对国家货币政策调控立场的预测价值。研究发现：（1）汇总层面的企业债务违约风险越高，政府未来越倾向于采取更为宽松的货币政策，表现为未来信贷投放规模的增长和借贷利率的下降；（2）分析师宏观预测以及投资者的投资决策也一定程度上考虑了汇总层面的企业债务违约风险。研究表明，汇总层面的企业债务违约风险能够反映实体经济的资金供求状况，从而对货币政策立场发挥一定的预测价值，有助于监管当局提高对宏观经济的监测和预警能力。     

Struggle for survival in credit crunch: The effect of interest rate deregulation in China

This study investigates how interest rate deregulation affects firms' financing choice between bank debt and public debt. Our analysis exploits China's 2013 bank interest rate floor deregulation as an exogenous shock to the supply of bank credit. Using a difference-in-difference design, we find that firms with higher default risk substitute away from bank loan and switch to public debt after the 2013 deregulation. However, this substitution to public debt is limited, leading to a dramatic decline in debt ratio. Our result also demonstrates that the effect on firms' public debt financing is more pronounced for firms with better information environments, suggesting that good information environment is an important prerequisite for making the switch. This switching, contradicting to traditional financing framework that high-risk firms prefer bank loans, inevitably is costly. Compared with low-risk firms, bonds issued by high-risk firms have significantly higher spreads, a higher likelihood of being secured, and a higher tendency of including an interest-adjusted clause. More importantly, we also document that high-risk firms subsequently improve their information transparency after the interest rate deregulation. Our findings highlight the role of interest rate deregulation in firms' financing choice and illustrate that firms incur high switching costs when their choice deviates from the optimal financing choice.     

Quantifying the vulnerabilities of China’s corporate sector with contingent claims

This paper measures and analyzes the default risk and debt sustainability of China’s non-financial corporate sector both on an aggregate level and within a sector by employing the contingent claims approach (CCA). Our results suggest that the vulnerabilities of Chinese firms are heterogenous in terms of investment source, ownership group, corporate form, industry type, and geographic unit etc. First, foreign capital enterprises have a lower default risk than domestic capital enterprises. Within domestic capital enterprises, state-owned firms have the lowest default risk, whereas private and collective firms are most unsustainable despite that they have the highest returns on assets. Second, state-controlled firms, private stock limited firms, and Chinese foreign cooperative firms are least vulnerable in the state-owned corporate sub-sector, the private corporate sub-sector and the foreign corporate sub-sector, respectively. Third, all industries except the coal industry are sustainable by industry type. Fourth, the vulnerabilities of local state-owned sub-sectors are diverse across China’s administrative regions. Moreover, we provide robustness tests which support our findings. In Sum, our study shed key light on ensuring the soundness of China’s non-financial corporate sector and thereby maintaining the stability and sustainability of the Chinese economy.     

国有企业混合所有制改革、金融化程度与全要素生产率

为推动混合所有制改革实现国有企业高质量发展,解决低效率和金融化的问题,文章选择国有制造业上市企业2008-2017年间的样本数据,考察了国有企业混合所有制改革与金融化程度对全要素生产率的交互影响机制。研究发现,引入非国有资本提高了国有企业全要素生产率,却加剧了企业金融化对全要素生产率的挤出效应,在规模较小、盈利能力较弱或市场化水平较低的国有企业中挤出效应更明显。在国有企业混合所有制改革过程中,非国有股东会基于套利目的,带动金融化程度的提升。基于上述研究结果,文章建议进一步完善混合所有制改革制度,改变企业资源配置方式,矫正资源误配格局,在帕累托改进的路径中推进改革,保证国有企业高质量发展。     

Does Other Comprehensive Income Volatility Influence Credit Risk and the Cost of Debt?

We examine the usefulness of other comprehensive income (OCI) to debt investors in nonfinancial companies. Motivated by Merton's (1974) real options framework, we construct a measure of incremental OCI volatility, designed to capture the effect of OCI on overall firm asset volatility, which is a primary driver of credit risk in Merton's (1974) model. We find that the volatility of incremental OCI influences the likelihood of default, credit ratings, and the cost of debt. Overall, our evidence suggests that creditors use information from OCI in their assessment of firm credit risk and in pricing debt contracts.     

担保网络与企业债务扩张--以2008-2018年非金融类上市公司为例

建立担保网络内部资产负债均衡模型,采用2008-2018年非金融类上市公司数据,研究担保网络与企业债务扩张的内在联系。结果表明:(1)担保网络与企业债务扩张之间存在正效应,担保网络企业中心性或网络权重的增加会导致企业债务扩张,但是这种正效应是异质的。(2)法制环境作用下担保网络企业中心性或网络权重对短期、流动和有息负债具有更显著更强的影响,对长期债务作用效果较弱,造成了我国企业“长债短借”的债务结构。(3)担保网络企业中心性只对制造业企业负债率的影响显著为正,在其他行业中具有国有背景和固定资产抵押等信贷优势的企业债务扩张主要取决于网络权重。最后,结合担保体系建设、金融科技为担保网络风险监管提供政策建议。     

债务违约、社会责任与政府支持

转型期中国，地方国有企业作为地区经济发展的一股中坚力量，当其发生债务违约时，作为实际控制人的地方政府究竟是否愿意提供支持，会优先选择哪些企业提供支持，政府的支持行为是否会影响到信贷资源的配置效率呢?为得到验证，文章选取2007-2016年沪深A股地方国有上市企业作为研究样本，实证分析了地方国企发生债务违约后，地方政府的支持行为及其对信贷资源配置效率的影响。研究结论表明：第一，地方国企发生债务违约后，地方政府会提供更多的"支持"，且支持额度与债务违约额呈显著正相关关系；第二，债务违约前，承担了更多社会责任（环保投资、捐赠以及就业等）的地方国企，在债务违约后可相应地获得更多的地方政府支持；第三，违约企业，尤其是得到更多政府支持的违约企业可获得更多的信贷资源，而其经营业绩却往往更差。由此表明政府干预一定程度上降低了信贷资源配置效率。     

自发自还背景下我国地方政府债券信用风险研究

在地方政府债券自发自还的背景下，研究我国地方政府市政债券信用风险，对于相关监管部门确定省、市层级合理适度的市政债券发行额度和规模，对于市政债券的发行者以及投资者准确评估市政债券信用风险，确保市政债券安全有效地发行具有重要意义。文章通过引入奈特不确定性因素期权定价理论的相关思想，构建了市政债券信用风险模型。研究结果表明在考虑奈特不确定性背景下，当债务规模占可担保财政收入80%以下时，理论违约概率趋近于零，当债务规模达到可担保财政收入80%以上之后，理论违约概率对债务规模的敏感性突然放大。据此文章得出结论：在考虑奈特不确定性因素的背景下，违约率与奈特不确定性因子存在正相关关系；市政债券规模需严格控制。     

The effect of bank account ownership on credit and consumption: Evidence from the UK

This article examines the causal effects of bank account ownership on credit access and consumption by isolating an exogenous change in account ownership produced by an electronic transfer mandate in the universal UK Child Benefit program. Comparing households with and without children finds that the mandate substantially affected banking behavior, with an 8.6% relative increase in transaction account ownership. When households transition into account ownership, results indicate large increases in credit card ownership (89%), and household durable goods (55%). Similar changes are not seen in loan use, weekly expenditures, or vehicle ownership. Additional evidence from a panel data set indicate declines in the use of fringe bank credit, informal loans, and debt after households transition into bank account ownership. In total, evidence suggests that an important effect of owning a bank account is improved access to credit cards which enables durable good consumption.     

中国地方政府债务违约风险评估——基于债务可持续性分析框架

结合中国地方政府财政反应特征,文章在债务可持续性分析框架中,首次识别了基础盈余主动调整的有效性条件作为分析前提,进而完善了债务不可持续性的定义内涵和度量方法,最终建立了地方政府债务违约风险评估模型。凭借此模型,对中国地方政府债务违约风险进行了评估,主要结论如下：在经济增速不稳定背景下,施行顺周期财政政策的中国地方政府,容易落入基础盈余主动调整无效的境况,因而在对地方政府债务可持续性进行分析时,有必要考虑基础盈余主动调整的有效性;通过检验发现,新构造的债务不可持续概率和条件期望债务空间指标,均能较好反映地方政府债务违约风险,而单纯的债务率指标对地方政府债务违约风险无解释力;在2019年,天津、贵州和青海等地已处于财政疲劳引起的债务不可持续状态,内蒙古等六省的条件期望债务空间不足20%,其余省份的条件期望债务空间仍相对充裕;最后,通过考察债务可持续性的改善渠道又进一步发现,财政透明度的提高可有效降低地方政府债务违约风险。     

分权化改革、政府干预与国有企业债务融资

债务融资一直是资本结构研究的重要内容。利用我国上市公司数据,采用规范研究和实证研究相结合的方法,对我国分权化改革和政府干预如何影响国有企业债务融资进行了分析。研究发现,企业所在地区的分权化程度越高,企业银行贷款率越高,政府干预对企业银行贷款影响越大。在考虑债务融资的性质差异基础上,进一步研究发现,企业所在地区的分权化程度越高,政府干预对长期借款的影响比短期借款大。上述研究说明,分权化改革影响着国有企业的债务融资行为,并使地方政府有很强的动机干预辖区内的国有企业债务融资行为。     

试谈企业债务重组

在激烈的市场竞争情况下．企业之间、企业与银行之间发生债务纠纷在所难免，因此债务重组也就成为人们普遍关心的问题。债务重组采取的方式方法多种多样．但不能随心所欲，应遵循一定的原则．并制定切实可行的措施防范风险。     

Efficiency, Performance and Changing Corporate Governance in China's Township–Village Enterprises since the 1990s

This article outlines some of the major challenges facing Chinese township–village enterprises (TVEs) since the 1990s. The authors argue that the internal mechanisms associated with the unique ownership structure of TVEs has allowed them to perform better than state-owned enterprises (SOEs). Since the mid-1990s, debt levels in the TVE sector have increased sharply. Most of the problems of TVEs have been magnified by the close relationship between local governments and enterprises, which was once one of their major strengths. Since the mid-1990s, local governments have come to regard TVEs with high levels of debt as a burden rather than an asset. In response local governments have moved to other, more indirect forms of governance over most TVEs under their control, while retaining direct control over the most successful. These alternative ownership structures include share-holding co-operatives and outright privatisation.