公司债券违约与同伴企业债务融资——来自地区溢出的证据

公司债券违约会对地区同伴企业的债务融资产生溢出效应。本文利用2013—2020年上市公司数据，研究公司债券违约事件对地区同伴企业债务融资行为的影响及其传导机制。研究结果显示，违约事件促使地区同伴企业增加长期金融负债并降低展期风险水平。基于信息的学习机制和基于经营的抵押品机制与竞争机制可以解释同伴企业加杠杆行为。同伴企业存在出于生存需要的应急性加杠杆和出于经营需要的预防性加杠杆。区域经济一体化建设在满足债券违约风险下企业的真实融资需求中发挥着积极作用。面对违约事件的冲击，要从融资能力方面防范和化解区域性债务风险，减少信息冲击和经济冲击的共同作用，加强区域协作，维护企业的公平市场竞争环境，这既有助于恢复经济，也有助于防范债务违约风险。     

债务违约、社会责任与政府支持

转型期中国，地方国有企业作为地区经济发展的一股中坚力量，当其发生债务违约时，作为实际控制人的地方政府究竟是否愿意提供支持，会优先选择哪些企业提供支持，政府的支持行为是否会影响到信贷资源的配置效率呢?为得到验证，文章选取2007-2016年沪深A股地方国有上市企业作为研究样本，实证分析了地方国企发生债务违约后，地方政府的支持行为及其对信贷资源配置效率的影响。研究结论表明：第一，地方国企发生债务违约后，地方政府会提供更多的"支持"，且支持额度与债务违约额呈显著正相关关系；第二，债务违约前，承担了更多社会责任（环保投资、捐赠以及就业等）的地方国企，在债务违约后可相应地获得更多的地方政府支持；第三，违约企业，尤其是得到更多政府支持的违约企业可获得更多的信贷资源，而其经营业绩却往往更差。由此表明政府干预一定程度上降低了信贷资源配置效率。     

量化宽松货币政策对公共债务管理的影响、风险及其启示

金融危机爆发后,量化宽松货币政策从三个方面影响了公共债务:央行向财政部上缴铸币税;降低再融资成本;刺激经济增长增加财政收入,从而有效提高公共债务的可持续水平。在此过程中,国债市场同时承担了货币政策传导和政府融资功能,中央银行致力于将投资者的资金从长期国债市场挤入短期资本市场,降低投资者的债务久期,而公共债务管理者则试图在低利率环境下发行长期债券延长债务久期,降低债务成本,二者的政策效果在一定程度上相互抵消。随着发达国家相继退出量化宽松货币政策,国债利息将会迅速增长,潜在风险不容忽视。对中国而言,未来需要进一步深化国内债券市场;降低主权债务管理与货币政策、金融稳定的潜在冲突,建立国家层面的资产负债表管理框架。     

珠三角上市中小企业研究分析报告

2012年一季度，随着欧洲长期再融资计划（LTRO）的实施，缓解了欧元区内部的主权债务违约风险和金融市场风险，并且在美国相对较好的经济数据带动下，全球股票市场包括中国市场走出了一波上升行情。     

企业融资方式偏好分析

不对称信息产生了道德风险。管理才（又称内幕人）为了使企业的价值最大化，在新项目融资上将偏好内源融资，如果企业被迫进行外源融资，则债务融资强于股权融资，这就是著名的PeckingOrder理论。然而，在本文的假设条件和博弈分析框架下，对管理者来说，无论是完全信息（对未来完全可知），还是不完全信息（对未来仍面临风险），偏好债务,融资的这一命题都无法成立。相反，企业可能更偏好于股权融资。特别是1980年代－1990年代，美国的企业财务报表显示，股权融资相对于债务融资更满足了企业的财务缺口，新兴的中国股市更提供了企业偏好股权融资的证据。     

如何规制地方融资平台

当前，地方政府融资平台公司所引发的风险隐患再次备受关注。这主要源于审计署的一组统计数据，即未来3年将有超过35％的地方性债务到期，其中2012年--2013年到期的额度分别约为1．8万亿元和12万亿元。因地方性债务的一个主要生成来源是地方政府融资平台公司，因而，融资平台公司的债务能否顺利偿付自然引人关注。而爆发于去年的云南省公路开发投资有限公司千亿贷款“违约风波”，也进一步加剧了人们对地方政府融资平台公司债务风险的警惕和担忧。     

企业债务违约的成因和经济后果分析——以永城煤电和永泰能源为例

目前中国正处在高质量发展的重要转型阶段,发行债券对于企业来说是重要的融资方式。但随着债券市场快速发展,债务违约问题也愈演愈烈,引起了人们的广泛关注。选取永泰能源与永城煤电债务违约案例,以二者的还款意愿与还款能力为切入点进行分析,探究民企和国企债务违约的成因,以及债务违约对发债主体、市场和投资者所造成的经济后果,并针对债务违约的防范工作提出一些应对策略,希望为债务违约的研究提供思路。     

衍生金融工具与信用风险管理

狭义的信用风险就是信贷风险，即债务人未能如期偿还其债务而造成的违约进而为经济主体经营带来的风险。广义的信用风险，则是指所有因客户违约而引起的风险，以及由于借款者的信用评级的变动和履约能力的变化，致使其债务的市场价值变动进而导致损失的可能性。其中包括：资产业务中借款者未按时还本付息导致的资产质量恶化；负债业务中存款者大量提款形成挤兑，加剧支付困难；表外业务中交易对手违约导致或有负债转化为表内负债等等。     

地方债务危机要爆发了？

正方：与美国债务违约的可能性相比，中国的地方债务并不显得十分棘手。从基本面上来讲，一个具有更低的政府债务、更高的经济增速和更强劲资本流入的中国，其地方债务的风险事实上是可控的，更谈不上违约可能。——澳新银行大中华区研究总监刘利刚     

货币政策与企业财务风险变化

本文利用中国人民银行发布的《中国货币政策执行报告》,研究货币政策与企业财务风险之间的关系。我们发现,企业财务风险会随着货币政策紧缩程度的变化而变化,宽松(紧缩)的货币政策会降低(提升)企业财务风险。我们还发现,货币政策和企业财务风险的关系还受到企业投融资行为的影响,也就是说大规模企业投资、债务融资将会抵消宽松货币政策对企业财务健康状况的积极效应;而在货币政策转为紧缩时,更是会加剧货币政策对企业财务风险的负面冲击。本研究结论预示着:为促进充分就业,中央政府实施的宽松货币政策,在某种程度上是以增加企业外部不确定性为代价的。在宏观调控过程中,作为提供就业的主要载体,企业权益往往被忽视。     

DYNAMIC EFFECTS OF MONETARY POLICY SHOCKS IN MALAWI

This paper sets out to investigate the process through which monetary policy affects economic activity in Malawi. Using innovation accounting in a structural vector autoregressive model, it is established that monetary authorities in Malawi employ hybrid operating procedures and pursue both price stability and high growth and employment objectives. Two operating targets of monetary policy are identified, viz., bank rate and reserve money, and it is demonstrated that the former is a more effective measure of monetary policy than the latter. The study also illustrates that bank lending, exchange rates and aggregate money supply contain important additional information in the transmission process of monetary policy shocks in Malawi. Furthermore, it is shown that the floatation of the Malawi Kwacha in February 1994 had considerable effects on the country's monetary transmission process. In the post‐1994 period, the role of exchange rates became more conspicuous than before although its impact was weakened, and the importance of aggregate money supply and bank lending in transmitting monetary policy impulses was enhanced. Overall, the monetary transmission process evolved from a weak, blurred process to a somewhat strong, less ambiguous mechanism.     

Modeling the Response of Gasoline-Crude Oil Price Crack Spread Macroeconomic Shocks

To date, considerable attention has been given to evaluating movements in crude oil and gasoline prices and in determining the significance of fundamental state variables that may influence these prices. This paper differs from the existing literature by identifying the response of the single-product gasoline-crude oil crack spread to unexpected changes in real output growth, inflation, the corporate default risk premium, and the stance of monetary policy utilizing the econometric techniques of vector autoregression and generalized impulse response analysis. The generalized impulse response method does not impose a priori restrictions as to the relative importance each of the state variables may play in the process of transmitting unexpected information from the macroeconomic variables to the crack spread. The results show the extent and the magnitude of the relationship between the crack spread being investigated and macroeconomic factors.     

经济政策不确定性、企业融资行为与多元化经营策略

基于 2003-2018 年的上市公司数据,分析了经济政策不确定性对企业多元化经营策略的影响。研究结果表明：经济政策不确定性与企业多元化经营之间存在着显著的负相关关系,并且经过一系列的稳健性检验,上述结论仍然成立;异质性分析发现,经济政策不确定性与企业多元化之间的负相关关系在非国有企业和小型企业中表现的更为明显,另外,货币和财政政策不确定性也都与企业多元化经营之间存在着负相关关系;机制分析发现经济政策不确定性加剧了企业的融资约束进而不利于企业的多元化经营,具体地,相较于股权融资,企业债权融资是经济政策不确定性影响企业多元化经营的中介因素,并且在非国有企业和小企业中,这种关系依然存在。研究丰富了宏观经济政策对微观企业行为影响的研究,对企业经营策略选择具有现实意义。     

The Monetary Transmission Mechanism, Non-residential Fixed Investment and Housing

We specify a vector autoregression (VAR) model for the U.S. for 1980–2008 to investigate the statistical causal relationships between private non-residential fixed investment, the effective Federal funds rate, personal consumption expenditures, nonfinancial corporate profits, and the nonfinancial corporate credit market debt to test the validity of macroeconomic relationships in a macro model. The VAR utilizes the Toda-Yamamote procedure to test for Granger causality. Our preliminary results show that the transmission mechanism does not work as expected; we find that fixed investment depends on the level of demand in the economy and profits but not on the interest rate. This casts doubt on the usual assumptions about how the monetary transmission mechanism is expected to work. The second part of the paper investigates the effects of the change in the monetary regime towards low and stable interest rates, a policy pursued by the U.S. Fed since the beginning of the 1990s. We find that the new monetary policy regime has the following effects: (1) our VAR model does not support the hypothesis that low interest rates lead to higher fixed nonresidential investment; (2) low interest rates led to a search for higher yields through increasing risk, and (3) they led to an increase in the demand for securitized assets, especially mortgage-backed securities, which eventually resulted in a housing bubble. The overall results therefore raise doubts about the effectiveness of low interest rates as a policy regime designed as a component of a counter-cyclical policy.     

Quantifying the vulnerabilities of China’s corporate sector with contingent claims

This paper measures and analyzes the default risk and debt sustainability of China’s non-financial corporate sector both on an aggregate level and within a sector by employing the contingent claims approach (CCA). Our results suggest that the vulnerabilities of Chinese firms are heterogenous in terms of investment source, ownership group, corporate form, industry type, and geographic unit etc. First, foreign capital enterprises have a lower default risk than domestic capital enterprises. Within domestic capital enterprises, state-owned firms have the lowest default risk, whereas private and collective firms are most unsustainable despite that they have the highest returns on assets. Second, state-controlled firms, private stock limited firms, and Chinese foreign cooperative firms are least vulnerable in the state-owned corporate sub-sector, the private corporate sub-sector and the foreign corporate sub-sector, respectively. Third, all industries except the coal industry are sustainable by industry type. Fourth, the vulnerabilities of local state-owned sub-sectors are diverse across China’s administrative regions. Moreover, we provide robustness tests which support our findings. In Sum, our study shed key light on ensuring the soundness of China’s non-financial corporate sector and thereby maintaining the stability and sustainability of the Chinese economy.     

财政政策、会计信息可比性与企业投资——来自中国上市公司的经验证据

基于2007-2021年A股上市公司为研究样本，从宏微观交叉视角，考察不同财政政策下，会计信息可比性和企业投资之间的互动关系。研究发现：相比扩张的财政政策，紧缩的财政政策下的企业可能有更高的投资-现金流敏感性，降低企业投资水平，而会计信息可比性的提高能够有效改善紧缩财政政策下的企业投资水平。进一步分析表明，紧缩的财政政策下，提高非国有企业会计信息可比性更有助于企业投资水平的改善。对于提高宏观经济政策的调控效果和促进实体经济的健康发展都具有重要的现实意义。     

Historical Decomposition of Aggregate Demand and Supply Shocks in a Small Macro Model

We estimate and analyze the impact of multiple aggregate demand and aggregate supply shocks in a small macroeconomic model of the economy. The analysis serves two purposes. First, we assess the relative importance of the various shocks in explaining the path of output over the past three decades. Second, we conduct counterfactual policy experiments which show the effects of alternative policies on key macro variables. We find that using the monetary policy tool (reserves or the base) such that constant money growth occurs would have produced superior economic results.     

Does Other Comprehensive Income Volatility Influence Credit Risk and the Cost of Debt?

We examine the usefulness of other comprehensive income (OCI) to debt investors in nonfinancial companies. Motivated by Merton's (1974) real options framework, we construct a measure of incremental OCI volatility, designed to capture the effect of OCI on overall firm asset volatility, which is a primary driver of credit risk in Merton's (1974) model. We find that the volatility of incremental OCI influences the likelihood of default, credit ratings, and the cost of debt. Overall, our evidence suggests that creditors use information from OCI in their assessment of firm credit risk and in pricing debt contracts.     

Monetary Policy and Corporate Investment： Evidence from Chinese Micro Data

This paper investigates how a firm's characteristics restrict the influence of monetary policy changes on its investment behavior. Focusing on China's listed companies for a sample period from the first quarter of 2002 to the first quarter of 2011, we find that quantity‐oriented and price‐based monetary policies have heterogeneous impacts on corporate investment behavior, but the influence of monetary policies is constrained by the liquidity, inventory, size and asset–liability ratio of a firm. Firms with higher liquidity, lower inventory level and lower asset–liability ratios are less sensitive to the impact from two kinds of monetary policies. The larger the size of the firm, the less it is subject to influence from quantity‐oriented monetary policy; it responds more to price‐based monetary policy. The policy implication is that the monetary authorities should pay attention to the importance of policy‐making based on the monetary demand of microeconomic entities.