印尼经济转型及其与中国经贸合作前景

印尼是东盟最大的经济体。苏西洛就任总统后,通过实施有效政策,印尼很快走上经济复苏与政治整合的发展道路。目前,印尼经济转型加快推进,虽然面临着一系列难题,但发展态势依旧良好,为中印经贸合作持续发展奠定了基础。     

Indonesia's Crisis: Implications for the Region

What began as a currency crisis in Indonesia in the third quarter of 1997 rapidly turned into a deep financial crisis with wide-ranging economic and social impacts, and finally became a serious political crisis that exploded in May 1998, forcing President Soeharto to resign. Soeharto's departure, however, did not resolve the crisis. He left behind an economy in shambles, a serious political vacuum and a highly polarised society. The issues to be dealt with are wide-ranging, including the loss of Indonesia's position in the international system, the domination of industry by foreign capital and the imposition by the IMF of a certain model of economic development. Regional and international aspects of the crisis have not become an issue in the public debate and policy discourse in Indonesia. This article looks at these implications.     

Indonesia's economic performance in comparative perspective and a new policy framework for 2049

This is the first paper of a planned ‘Indonesia 2049’ project, which asks how far Indonesia's economy will have developed 100 years after actual political independence in 1949. We compare dimensions of Indonesia's economy with those of two oil exporters (Mexico and Nigeria), three large populous developing economies (China, India and Brazil) and three Southeast Asian neighbours (Malaysia, Thailand and the Philippines). Under Soeharto, Indonesia's economic performance was better than it had been under Soekarno, and above the average of the eight comparator countries, but below that of the East Asian economies. Our view is that Susilo Bambang Yudhoyono's second administration must adopt a new economic policy framework to ensure successful transition to knowledge-based growth. This proposed new framework goes beyond the Washington Consensus of ‘getting prices right’ and ‘getting institutions right’ to include ‘getting the role of science right’ and ‘getting the conception of the reform process right’.     

西部大开发与中国和中东的经贸合作机遇

中东市场在国际经济中地位日益突出。该地区在经济上与我国互补性很强,是我国对外经贸合作发展潜力较大的地区。在共同努力下,我国与中东国家的经贸合作稳步发展,但规模仍需扩大。我国实施西部大开发战略将极大地促进西部地区经济发展和对外交流,同时也为加强我国与中东地区的经贸合作带来前所未有的机遇。     

Managing the Indonesian economy: Some lessons from the past

This paper draws some tentative lessons for the management of Indonesia's economy from recent political–economic history. After a brief review of the economy under the present government, the paper then puts the picture in the longer term perspective of post-independence Indonesia. Some lessons are then drawn. They include the need to maintain awareness of the close connection between economics and politics, constant vigilance about economic stability and the budget, a solid economic team, a coherent overall strategy and a focus on institutions and governance.     

Recollections of my Career

Subroto, Professor at the Faculty of Economics, University of Indonesia (FEUI), is one of the architects of the economic policies that brought growing prosperity to Indonesia over the New Order years Educated in Dutch colonial and Japanese occupation schools, he joined Indonesia's independence struggle, and later studied economics at FEUI, McGill University, MIT, and Stanford and Harvard Universities. He taught international economics and business cycles at FEUI and was Secretary of the Faculty. With Widjojo Nitisastro, Mohammad Sadh, Ali Wardhana and Emil Salim, Subroto was appointed a Personal Economic Adviser to General (later President) Soeharto's new government in 1966 In 1968 he joined the Department of Trade, and later was minister of departments responsible for transmigration, cooperatives, mining and energy. After a 17-year ministerial career serving in four consecutive cabinets, Subroto was Secretary General of OPEC for six years from 1988 He remains active in Indonesia's nongovernmental Indonesian Institute for Energy Economics (IIEE), writing on energy problems, and is also Rector of the private Pancasila University in South Jakarta As part of our occasional series of interviews with economists who have helped shape New Order Indonesia, Professor Subroto talked with Chris Manning and Thee Kian VVie of the Bulletin's Editorial Board about his experience as a cabinet minister and as Secretary General of OPEC, and about his views on Indonesia's economic development, particularly its energy problems.     

双循环新发展格局视域下区际经济高质量协调发展研究

面对国际国内政治格局发生的复杂变化以及全球供应链不确定性增强,中国的经济增长动力向内需和消费方向发展,优化国内市场供需双侧格局,发挥中国市场规模优势和市场容量,构建双循环新发展格局势在必行.通过对中国三大区际经济发展水平对比研究认为东、中、西三大区际经济发展存在较大差异,城镇化水平有助于提升经济发展层次,中、西两大区际具有较大市场空间和发展潜力,是经济协调发展的重要改革重心,高质量协调发展须从促进区际协同机制、产业优化布局、构建消费体系等方面展开,快速整合资源,加快双循环发展布局,共促区域经济繁荣发展.     

ASIAN DEVELOPMENT STRATEGIES: CHINA AND INDONESIA COMPARED

China's and Indonesia's development strategies have been compared with others, but rarely with each other. Radically different political contexts have produced both similar and distinctly different development patterns. Each using formal planning, Indonesia spurred radical reforms to promote growth, whereas China opted for incremental reforms to ‘grow out of the Plan’, as a political device and to discover what policies and institutions worked. Both strategies produced environments largely conducive to rapid development. Indonesia relied on a few economic technocrats to oversee development; China used decentralisation and party reforms to create a credible environment for non-state investment. Both shared concern for agricultural reform and food security; both opted to open up for trade—China gradually, Indonesia radically. Both did well in growth and poverty reduction following reform. China's growth performance is in a league of its own, especially since Indonesia's Asian crisis setback, but Indonesia had more equitable growth and survived a difficult political transition with, in hindsight, modest costs.     

Growth,Poverty, and Inequality under Jokowi

SUMMARY

The political authority of President Joko Widodo (Jokowi) was bolstered in the third quarter of 2015 by a cabinet reshuffle, his coalition's gaining a parliamentary majority, and several foreign-policy developments. Indonesia's request to rejoin OPEC, for example, after having left in 2008, seemed more about international relations than oil prices, while official visits to the Middle East and the United States allowed Jokowi to project his presidency on the international stage. He still faces resistance from within his own party, however.

Jokowi's politically bold reshuffle of economic ministers in August soon yielded a range of policy announcements. In September and October, his government introduced its first substantial set of reforms—a number of economic policy packages intended, among other things, to attract investment and stimulate domestic demand. If even half of these policies are put in place, the impact on Indonesia's economy should be tangible.

Few countries have escaped the effects of falling global commodity prices and China's growth slowdown. At 4.7%, year on year, in the third quarter Indonesia's rate of economic growth again fell short of the government's target. Slowing growth and a negative outlook have lowered market expectations and weakened the rupiah, which is also burdened by the large outstanding external debt held by corporate borrowers. Indonesia's real effective exchange rate has recently begun to depreciate, however, which may stimulate exports. Growth prospects will also improve if the substantial increase in capital and infrastructure spending allocated in the state budget is realised.

Against this backdrop, we focus on what has happened to poverty and inequality in Indonesia since Jokowi took office. The distributional impacts of the current macroeconomic climate are likely to be hardest felt by the poor. Indonesia is well known for its record on poverty reduction, but between September 2014 and March 2015 the share of the population in poverty increased, even though economic growth was close to 5.0%. Slowing growth, rising food prices, the falling real wages of farmers, and the delayed disbursement of fuel-price compensation all had an effect. Such impacts may be mitigated in the medium term by Jokowi's budget reallocations to infrastructure, if realised, and his expansion of social spending.     

East and South Asia: Managing Difficult Bilateral Relations and Regional Integration Globally

This paper analyzes the economic integration of the East and South Asian economies in the global economy. East Asian economies are shown to be achieving much more of their potential trade than South Asian economies, both in terms of intra‐regional trade and in trade with the rest of the world. Examination of the China–Japan, India–Pakistan and Taiwan–mainland China bilateral relationships shows that integration of these economies into the global economy has allowed economic relations to dominate and constrain difficult bilateral political relations in East Asia while in South Asia adverse political relations have hampered development of bilateral economic relationships.     

Book Reviews

Book reviewed in this articles:
The Philippines: the political economy of growth and impoverishment in the Mairos era James K. Boyce
Poverty, Growth and the Fiscal Crisis Emmanuel S. de Dios and Associates
Rural Enterprises in China Christopher Findlay, Andrew Watson and Harry X. Wu
Rural China in Transition: non-agricultural development in rural Jiangsu, 1978–1990 S. P. S. Ho
China, Modernisation and the Goal of Prosperity: government administration and economic policy in the late 1980s Kate Hannan (ed.)
China: internal market darelopment and regulation
The Economic Growth of Singapore: trade and development in the twentieth century W. G. Huff
Challenge and Response: thirty years of the Economic Development Board Helen Hughes, Linda Low, Toh Mun Heng, Soon Teck Wong and Tan Kong Yam
The Political Economy of Agricultural Pricing Policy, Volume 5: a synthesis of the political economy in developing countries Anne O. Krueger
Indonesia Assessment 1994. Finance as a Key Sector in Indonesia's Development Ross H. McLeod (ed.)
Debt, Deficits and Exchange Rates: essays on financial interdependence and development Helmut Reisen
A Nation in Waiting: Indonesia in the 1990s Adam Schwarz
Approaching Suharto's Indonesia fmm the Margins Takashi Shiraishi (ed.)
Telecommunications Sector Reform in Asia: toward a new pragmatism Peter L. Smith and G. Staple
ASEAN-China Economic Relations: industrial restructuring in ASEAN and China Joseph L. H. Tan and Luo Zhaohong (eds)
China's Coastal Cities: catalysts for modernization Yue-man Yeung and Xu-wei Hu (eds)     

The political economy of income distribution in South Korea: The impact of the state's industrialization policies

A number of previous studies of economic growth and income distribution in South Korea, based largely on 1960s data, concluded that South Korea was an exception to Kuznets' ‘inverse U-pattern’ of income inequality. Also, it was regarded as an exception to the usual negative consequences predicted by dependency theory for an economy so dependent on foreign capital and world markets. This author presents more recent data — for the 1970s and early 1980s — in order to support his claim that the trend toward income equality that appeared in the 1960s was reversed in the 1970s. The author develops a thesis that stresses the role of the state in shaping the Korean political economy. He argues that it has been the strong South Korean developmentalist state in firm control of both domestic and foreign capital and its export-oriented industrialization policies that have been the principal determinant of the pattern of income distribution. He contests the usual explanation related to the level of economic development or external dependency per se.     

东亚参与全球经济治理的发展前景

东亚地区已经成为全球经济体系中的重要力量,对维护全球经济秩序稳定和健康发展承担着越来越大的责任。东亚地区的最大两个经济体中国和日本参与全球经济治理的进程充分说明,国家经济实力与全球治理能力和话语权之间并不存在必然的正相关关系,东亚地区对全球经济治理的规范选择及其影响力仍然有限,东亚参与全球经济治理的发展前景仍存在一定的不确定性。     

林毅夫:中国经济的发展前景

日前,世界银行首席经济学家兼高级副行长林毅夫发表重要演讲,对我国的改革采取渐进的双轨制的转型方式做了高度肯定,对中国经济发展的未来进行了科学的推论:中国再维持20年平均每年8%的增长的可能性是完全存在的。     

Decentralization and coordination: China's credible commitment to preserve the market under authoritarianism

This paper addresses the political economy of development in the context of economic catching-up. Specifically, we conducted a literature review and proposed a framework to examine how China has been able to achieve double-digit annual growth in the last two decades despite the general absence of democracy, rule of law, and private property rights. We find that similar to other East Asian catching-up economies, China is at the stage of a market-preserving authoritarianism. International and domestic competitive pressures and experiences led Deng and other senior leaders to preserve the market for catching-up. Economic decentralization and autonomy on the one hand, and political control and coordination on the other hand, made the policies to preserve the market under authoritarianism largely credible.     

东亚经济一体化可行性的分析

在全球化和区域化不断发展的国际政治经济环境下,欧盟和北美自由贸易区向东亚各国的一体化提供了示范效应,同时也提出了迫切的要求。因此,要实现东亚经济的长期发展,东亚经济的一体化已经成为关键因素。本文通过对东亚经济一体化可行性的分析,为以后的发展提出了思路,指出了在以后发展中要着重克服的问题。     

Competition policy in Indonesia: Conglomerates versus SMEs1

Since the currency crisis, Indonesia has undergone rapid economic and political changes. However, the IMF‐directed recovery program, such as decentralization, does not seem successful. Despite the improvised legal system, the implementation of the recovery program is very poor. Lack of consensus on the role of conglomerates and the direction of competition policy, has prevented Indonesia from recovery. Anti‐conglomerate sentiment of the post‐Suharto times has given rise to unbalanced competition law and inconsistency among related laws. Treatment of the banking sector including ownership is a critical factor in the recapitalization process. Due to the similarity between Indonesia and Korea, Korean experiences would help Indonesia to establish the principles on competition policy. The separation principle is strongly recommended for Indonesia at the current development stage, and it is urgent to establish a rule‐based, not a discretion‐based, economy. The problems of conglomerates should be resolved through comprehensive competition policies.     

INTERNATIONAL PRODUCTION/DISTRIBUTION NETWORKS AND INDONESIA

This study examines the industrialization performance of Indonesia through a comparative evaluation with other East Asian economies. While neighboring countries actively formulated international production/distribution networks, Indonesia fell behind in utilizing the benefits of globalizing corporate activities. International production/distribution networks are supported by new economic thought such as fragmentation, agglomeration, and theories about corporate firm; and a policy package of development strategies should be designed to utilize such opportunities. The design of Indonesia's development strategies and “institutions”, however, does not conform to the globalizing world because the presence of network‐forming foreign companies is not large enough to make them influential “actors”. This author argues that the traditional comparative advantage argument for Indonesia's economic development is possibly misleading. Rather, Indonesia must learn the experience of its neighboring countries and introduce foreign companies as new actors to break the old “structure”.     

Recollections of My Careerlections of My Career

Suhadi Mangkusuwondo, Professor Emeritus of the Faculty of Economics at the University of Indonesia (FEUI), was born in Solo, Central Java, in December 1927. After participating in the war of independence, he resumed his secondary education in Malang, completing it in 1949. He then studied economics at the University of Indonesia (UI) and later became a teaching assistant there. Suhadi spent two years doing postgraduate study at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology and later obtained a PhD in economics at the University of California at Berkeley. Returning to Indonesia and his teaching post at FEUI, he became editor of the journal Economics and Finance in Indonesia (EKI). He was Head of the R&D Agency in the Department of Trade from 1973 to 1975 and again in 1983-88, and Director General of Foreign Trade from 1975 to 1983. Professor Suhadi served as the Representative of the Government of Indonesia in the Uruguay Round when it was launched in 1986, and since 1992 has been a member of the Eminent Persons Group of the APEC (Asia–Pacific Economic Cooperation) forum. His other activities include membership of Indonesia's National Research Council (DRN), and of organisations such as the Regional Advisory Board of the ASEAN Economic Bulletin, the journal of the ASEAN Economic Research Unit of the Institute of Southeast Asian Studies in Singapore. He is now also Vice Chairman of the Jakarta-based Trade and Development Institute. On 8 July 1994, Professor Suhadi talked with H.W. Arndt, Hal Hill and Thee Kian Wie about his views on Indonesia's economic development under the New Order, and particularly about trade policy. On 19 September 1995, in a second interview with H.W. Arndt, Mari Pangestu and Thee Kian Wie, he elaborated further on his work at the Ministry of Trade and his participation in the Uruguay Round and the APEC Eminent Persons Group (EPG).     

Recollections of My Career

Editorial Note:Professor Sumitro Djojohadilcusomo is one of the principal architects of Indonesia's post-independence economic policy. He has held key economic portfolios in both the immediate post-independence era and in the New Order. In addition, as Professor of Economics at the University of Indonesia, and as a tireless lecturer and writer on economic issues, he has been instrumental in shaping the education of several generations of economics students in Indonesia, many of whom are now in key government positions. At the end of August, Professor Sumitro generously agreed to be interviewed on his long career by two members of the BIES editorial board, Anne Booth and Thee Kian Wie. In preparing this interview for publication, the editors have tried to preserve Professor Sumilro's own words to the greatest extent possible; his lucid and entertaining remarks are thus reproduced with a minimum of editing. The interview began with a question to Professor Sumitro about his early training in economies.