我国生育政策调整——从计划生育到“二孩”政策

生育政策不但事关一个国家发展,甚至对于整个人类社会的福祉都有影响。而中国作为世界人口大国,中国的生育政策受到世界瞩目,从刚建国时的长期"计划生育"政策到如今的"二孩"政策,我国的生育政策作出了很大调整。通过看别的国家的人口生育政策,推出我国计划生育政策的历史必然性、二孩政策的满足时代发展性、马尔萨斯人口理论对中国生育政策的启示等,进一步来看生育政策调整。     

曾毅:生育政策不变,危及复兴大业

日前,北大中国经济研究中心教授曾毅撰文,驳斥"保持现行生育政策不变可以提高人口素质,有利于开发教育红利和制度红利,而推迟‘刘易斯拐点[1]'魔咒到来"的理论.曾毅认为:恰恰相反,尽快调整现行生育政策,实行"普遍允许二孩与提倡适当晚育"政策有利于开发教育和制度红利.主要理由有三: 其一,关于"除了个别一些非常发达的大城市外,在全国绝大多数地区,一旦放弃计划生育,目前的低生育水平肯定会大幅反弹"的判断不符合客观事实.首先,很多学者(包括我本人)建议的将现行生育政策调整为"普遍允许二孩与提倡适当晚育"政策决不等于"放弃计划生育",而是与时俱进,科学改善计划生育,绝不会导致在全国绝大多数地区"目前的低生育水平肯定会大幅反弹".     

“还权于民”就是造福国家

中国需直面政策性独子生育所隐含的潜在风险,以适度生育和优化生育为新的理论指导,还权于民,造福国家,走出一条以人为本、全面、协调、持续的人口优化发展道路。目前,我国人口与计划生育改革已经到了"还权于民"和"提高年轻家庭抵御风险的能力"的关键阶段。遗憾的是,在一胎化的政策导向下,一些地方仍然坚持"对符合二孩生育政策自愿终生只要一个孩子的家庭实行奖励甚至重奖"的做法。被奖励的家庭主要是农村的独女户家庭。然后,这种政策导向却必然导致更多风险家庭、问题家庭的产生,进一步加剧农村的养老危机甚至引发全局性的发展危机。中国需要从代际人口生命历程的关系出发重新定位人口生育政策,直面政策性独子生育所隐含的潜在风险,以适度生育和优化生育为新的理论指导,还权于民,造福国家,走出一条以人为本、全面、协调、持续的人口优化发展道路。     

从罚到奖——试述农村计划生育政策的“调整”

本文针对农村部分计划生育家庭奖励扶助制度,首先,提出奖励扶助制度是从单纯的"处罚多生"到惩治与奖励并重的政策;其次,分析该政策调整的原因,主要是基于农村人口现状及发展现状;再次,分析了该政策在人口和计划生育工作、"三农问题"及党群、干群关系方面取得的成效;最后,针对政策实施过程中在对象确认、资金分配及信息化建设中存在的不足,提出自己的建议。     

“全面二孩政策”背后的家庭社会学研究

国家出台"全面二孩"政策是希望通过政策调整,鼓励更多的妇女生育孩子。但据2017年数据显示,中国人口出生率和人口增长率并不如预期。家庭角色的变化、家庭生育成本的增加等都存在较大困境。本文对"全面二孩政策"与家庭之间关系进行了梳理,并从家庭社会学角度探讨了该政策实施中出现的问题。     

继续完善生育政策调整的思考

十八届三中全会提出了“只开放双单独夫妇生二孩”的方案,是生育政策调整所迈出的第一步.在受人口分母决定论误导反对生育政策调整,主张保持原生育政策不变的声音仍然十分强大的情况下,迈出这第一步是很不容易的,也是值得庆幸的.但是,基于2010年人口普查和其他最新数据研究表明,只开放双单独方案虽比保持原生育政策不变有所改善,但与普遍允许二孩与提倡适当晚育方案相比,仍有加速人口老化与劳动力萎缩,助长出生性别比偏高与继续制造独生子女高风险家庭等一系列有损人口社会经济均衡发展的弊端,而且将显著加大新时期计划生育工作难度.     

新形势下的上海居家养老社区支持体系研究

老龄化与养老问题是目前我国各地．尤其上海等大城市所面对的重要人口与社会问题之一。生育政策实行至今．在人口数量控制与稳定方面成绩娃著．但同时也推涨了人口老龄化的高潮．促使家庭规模向小型化与核心化发展．     

开放二孩政策对于我国社会发展的意义研究

开放二孩政策是我国新时期背景下施行的宽松性生育政策,在计划生育基本国策的前提下放宽生育政策,追求人口长期均衡发展。本文简要论述了中华人民共和国成立以来的生育政策演变以及政策调整的背景;之后提出我国现阶段人口发展存在的问题、开放二孩政策对实现人口长期均衡发展的意义;最后指出施行开放二孩政策要因地制宜灵活变通,并不能一劳永逸地解决我国人口问题。随着社会发展生育政策也会进行调整,最终服务于社会。     

专家呼吁改革人口政策 “中国人口最大风险不是总人数,而是老龄化”

"我们现在之所以会出现越来越多的‘421’家庭和失独家庭,就是因为从1980年开始实行的以独生子女政策为中心的现行计划生育政策,让中国微观家庭、宏观的人口架构发生了变化。"10月31日,在由中国社会科学文献出版社组织的"中国生育政策改革主题沙龙"上,北京大学社会系教授李建新感叹道。1980年1月,为进一步控制人口数量增长,中央下发文件,提出"计划     

我国二孩政策调整对社会内需经济发展的影响分析

我国基本国情的主要特征之一是人口多、基数大。社会经济的发展与人口的发展有着密切的关系。我国实行的计划生育政策自20世纪80年代以来逐步建立并完善,这一政策在很长的一段时间都发挥了其不可估计的重要作用,减少了因人口增长过快而导致对资源环境的压力。但随着社会的发展,计划生育政策逐渐的不再适合于现在的社会,此时"二孩"生育政策进入了国家政策的视野中。二孩政策是顺应社会可持续发展、顺应时代要求的政策调整的具体体现,也是解决人口老龄化,社会劳动力低下问题的重要方法。开放二孩政策对我国社会经济发展将产生重要影响何积极作用,其中必然也会出现消极作用,但总体而言是利大于弊的。文章简要介绍我国二孩政策调整与社会发展的关系,并重点讨论二孩政策的开放对社会经济发展的影响。     

Child survival in East Africa: The impact of preventive health care

Since the mid-1980s or earlier, several East African countries have experienced constant or rising child mortality rates concurrent with social and biomedical improvements of the “Child Survival Revolution”. This study examines whether preventive primary health care enhanced early child survival in the late 1980s and early 1990s in five East African countries. Child mortality rates were considerably lower than they would have been in the absence of specific immunizations, access to safe drinking water, fertility regulation, and frequent antenatal care visits. There was, however, substantial missed opportunity for mortality decline as a result of insufficient use of preventive measures. In particular, universal immunization across these countries could have reduced rates of mortality under age two by as much as one-third. Continued pursuit of the goals of the World Summit for Children appears essential to offset macroeconomic and growing epidemiological constraints to child survival in the region.     

Targeted poverty investments and economic growth in China

In the mid-1980s, the Chinese government launched its ambitious poor area development policy, which was centered around a series of grant, credit, and Food-for-Work programs. Ironically, for the remainder of the 1980s rural poverty remained at about 90 to 100 million, or approximately 10% of the rural population. The lack of progress cannot necessarily be blamed on ineffective poor area policies, since much of the agricultural economy was mired in a deep recession between the mid-1980s and the early 1990s. By the mid-1990s substantial additional poverty reduction had been achieved. Even in the late-1980s, farmers in many poor counties did better than the national average in terms of income growth. After accounting for the effects of macroeconomic elements, what factors can help explain the differences in performance among poor regions and between poor areas and rich ones? Can part of these differences be accounted for by poor area policies, in general, or by the way local and regional officials allocate their poor area investment funds, in particular?The overall objective of this paper is to analyze the effectiveness of Chinese poor area policy. Specifically, the paper seeks to meet three objectives. First, we want to understand the evolution of poor area policy since the mid-1980s, trying to deduce the true goals of central and regional poor area officials, as well as how these policies have been implemented in the provinces. Next, we want to understand the magnitude and scope of investment into poor areas, and examine if changes in these policies have affected the uses of the investment funds. Finally, we want to determine the effectiveness of the investment of poor area funds, analyzing which types of investments have generated growth, and which ones have not.     

Fertility trends in Indonesia, 1967-1985

Fertility trends in Indonesia for the period 1967-1985 are analyzed. Data are from the Indonesian censuses of 1971 and 1980 and from the 1985 Intercensal Survey (SUPAS 85); they concern fertility rates by province, marital status, and for the general population. An overview of the sociocultural factors that affect data reliability and a discussion of the effectiveness of the date of last birth method are included. The authors conclude that the evidence "has confirmed the existence of a major fertility decline throughout Indonesia. The pace of the decline has been faster in 1980-85 than during the 70s. On present trends, it should be possible to reach the ambitious target of halving fertility between 1979 and 1990."     

The Changing Employment Structure of the Extended Jakarta Metropolitan Region

This paper examines the changing employment structures in the growing metropolitan region focused on Jakarta It disaggregates the Botabek region surrounding Jakarta into an inner and an outer ring, and finds that the “fringe” growth of Jakarta has come to dominate the pattern of urbanisation in West Java, adding more to the urban population of West Java in the 1980s than did the growth of the West Java capital, Bandung.

The increase in employment over the 1980–1990 period differed sharply between Jakarta and the two rings. Employment in DKI Jakarta rose by 52%, in the inner rmg by 425%, and in the outer ring by 36%. Migration patterns indicate that the inner ring was gaining both through city dwellers moving to areas outside the city boundaries and through people moving from elsewhere in Java and further afield. The educational attainment of the workforce in the inner ring rose dramatically, reflecting not only improvements in school facilities within the ring but also in-migration of well educated people.     

生育、劳动人口福利与机制设计

通过建立动态优化模型，进行模拟发现：在没有配套性政策下按照政策生育会降低劳动人 口的福利水平。这意味着，如果自愿进行生育，全面二孩政策下民众很可能不会有效地响应政策。 进一步模拟发现：养老制度转轨和降低生育成本的政策，如果与生育政策调整同时进行，可以增 加社会资源，补偿生育对劳动人口福利的挤占，但是政策具有生育效应的关键在于转轨带来社会 资源增量须用于生育支持，降低家庭生育成本的关键在于提高社会照看与提供孩子产品和服务企 业的社会生产率。政策启示在于，尽快出台与生育政策配套性的措施，特别是生育支持性政策。     

重新认识中国的人口形势

中国人口进入低生育率时期已经20年了,但长期以来人口研究对这种重大转变认识不足。全国第六次人口普查数据证实,以往严重高估出生水平和生育水平,低估人口老龄化进程,人口发展规划目标一再出现大幅落空。人口预测模拟结果表明,中国人口在21世纪中的主要矛盾已经由总人口规模问题转向人口年龄结构问题,未来人口老龄化来势凶猛。中国人口发展正处于极为关键的时刻,而以往人口理论宣传和估计预测中的偏向误导了对人口大趋势的正确把握,造成中国生育率严重过低,导致未来过度的少子化和老龄化的人口风险。     

Chinese consumer quality perception and preference of sustainable milk

A sustainable food consumption and production system is at the center of the global sustainability initiative. With the world's largest population and rapidly growing environmental concerns, it is urgent for China to develop effective ways to motivate sustainable food consumption and production. Understanding consumer perception and preference of sustainable food provides critical information for Chinese policy makers to identify barriers and develop rules and policies to reach this goal. Our paper shows that most Chinese consumers do not clearly understand the meaning of sustainability, and lack knowledge about sustainable food production. The premium that consumers are willing to pay for sustainable milk is about 40%. Consumers who do not perceive the linkage between sustainable production and food quality have a significant lower willingness to pay for sustainable milk. Interestingly, people with children are more willing to pay for sustainable milk, suggesting a potential over-generation concern about sustainable development.     

Editors’ introduction transitional economies: Progress and pitfalls

Many Asian countries are undergoing transition from centrally planned to market-oriented economies. The People's Republic of China (PRC) and Viet Nam have been going through this transition since the 1980s, while Mongolia and the former Soviet republics of Armenia, Azerbaijan, Georgia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyz Republic, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan began their transition in the 1990s with the dissolution of the Soviet Union in 1991. On the other hand, Cambodia, the Lao People's Democratic Republic, and Myanmar, while they have begun reforms, are still in the early stages of transition. North Korea has probably made the least progress in this regard. This Special Issue on Transitional Economies aims to provide valuable insights for Asia's developing countries still in transition and to provide them with policy recommendations for avoiding the pitfalls of transition experienced in the 1990s.     

卢锋:应加快调整“一胎政策”

北京大学国家发展研究院副院长卢锋日前撰文指出,中国应当加快调整一胎生育管制政策。卢锋说,随着多年来中国低生育人口形势延续和发展,中国学界和公众讨论建言调整一胎生育管制政策的呼声日高。而中国官方政策也发生微妙变化。例如2006年年底中国决策层发布《关于全面加强人口和计划生育工作统筹解决人口问题的决定》指出,"面对新的形势和任务,既要坚持多年来行之有效的基本经验,又要解放思想、实事求是、与     

Childbearing and the distribution of the reservation price of fertility: The case of the Korean baby bonus program

We study the fertility effects of a Korean pro-natalist policy. We show that using the same assumptions and the same binary-choice models used in this literature, and we can estimate the entire unconditional distribution of the reservation price of fertility, which is the minimal compensation an agent must receive to induce her to have a (or an additional) child. Our estimates show that the program’s benefit level and budget would have to be orders of magnitude (about 15 times) larger for the program to bring South Korea back to desired levels of fertility. We also found that over 74% of the program’s expenditures are associated with infra-marginal births – these are births that would have occurred even in the absence of the financial incentive. We show that this is likely not a unique characteristic of the Korean pro-natalist policy but instead a problem of most programs of this nature.