关于东亚区域货币合作问题的分析

1997年的亚洲金融危机给东亚各国的经济带来了沉重打击。此后,东亚各国纷纷认识到开展区域内货币金融合作的必要性,并以此来增强抵御风险、化解危机的能力。这次亚洲金融危机改变了东亚国家的政策取向,区域经济一体化步入制度性安排的快车道,这也为东亚区域货币合作创造了条件。另外,美元区与欧元区的相继建立和运行不仅证实了最优货币区理论在实践上的可行性,也增强了东亚各国在货币合作问题上取得成功的信心。本文将要对东亚区域货币合作问题做以探讨分析,从而说明东亚区域货币合作的必要性和可行性。     

Book Reviews

Book reviewed:
Gordon Betcherman and Riswanul Islam, (eds) East Asian Labor Markets and the Economic Crisis: impacts, responses and lessons
Françoise Gérard and François Ruf, Agriculture in Crisis: people, commodities and natural resources in Indonesia 1996-2000
Gregory W. Noble and John Ravenhill, (eds) The Asian Financial Crisis and the Architecture of Global Finance
James Zhan and Terutomo Ozawa, Business Restructuring in Asia: cross-border M&As in the crisis period
Xiaoming Huang, The Political and Economic Transition in East Asia: strong market, weakening state
John A. Mathews and Dong-Sung Cho, Tiger Technology: the creation of a semiconductor industry in East Asia
A. Haroon Akram-Lodhi, (ed.) Confronting Fiji Futures
Peter Drysdale, Yunling Zhang and Ligang Song, (eds) APEC and Liberalisation of the Chinese Economy
Heather Smith, (ed.) Looking Forward: Korea after the economic crisis
L. T. Jones and P. A. McGavin, Land Mobilisation in Papua New Guinea
Marcus Noland, Avoiding the Apocalypse: the future of the two Koreas
Delia Davin, Internal Migration in Contemporary China
On Kit Tam, The Development of Corporate Governance in China
Ross Garnaut and Ligang Song, (eds) China: twenty years of reform
Ramesh Adhikari and Ulrich Hiemenz, (eds) Achieving Financial Stability in Asia
Morris Goldstein, Graciela L. Kaminsky and Carmen M. Reinhart, Assessing Financial Vulnerability: an early warning system for emerging markets     

亚洲金融危机前中国资本外逃的影响因素——一个回顾性分析

文章利用计量经济模型,对亚洲金融危机前(1987—1997)我国资本外逃的影响因素进行研究,并对通过协整检验的模型拟合误差修正模型,以反映短期动态变化。研究结果表明,亚洲金融危机前,财政赤字、外汇储备状况和本币高估是驱动资本外逃的主要因素,我国资本外逃具备非经济衰退驱动特点。     

Asian finance and the role of bankruptcy: a model of the transition costs of financial liberalization

The degree to which bankruptcy is permitted to play a role in the allocation of capital is a key distinction of the state-directed financial regime of Japan, South Korea, and many other Asian economies. Focusing on the development and characteristics of the Japanese main-bank system and comparing it to the Anglo-American approach, this paper discusses the two approaches to finance and argues that a major problem with the bank-finance model used in many Asian countries is its minimization of bankruptcy risks. A three-sector development model is described and simulated to compare the outcomes of the two approaches separately and then to evaluate the transition costs of switching from a state-directed to a market-directed financial regime. The simulation results suggest that the market approach results in a higher long-run growth path because it eliminates inefficient firms through bankruptcy. The results also suggest that switching from a state-directed to a market-directed model can be very costly to the economy. These transition costs can be lowered by a phased-in liberalization but are increased by delay. We then discuss the policy implications.     

Bank consolidation and competitiveness: Empirical evidence from the Korean banking industry

The Korean government consolidated several banks following the Asian Financial Crisis of 1997–1998 to stabilize the financial market and to improve international competitiveness. This process has brought sound capital reserves, assets and profitability to the banking industry. However, due to the resulting increase in market concentration, this process has also produced concerns about the monopolistic and oligopolistic power of the banks. Recently, the growing concern within the government is the weakening of bank competition due to the sharp increase in market concentration. This study reviews and examines the status of bank consolidation and the competitive structure of the banking industry. The degree of competitiveness in the banking industry is analyzed using the Panzar and Rosse model with a non-structural approach and data from 1992 to 2007 (before the beginning of the 2008–2009 Global Financial Crisis). This time span is divided into a pre- and a post-bank consolidation period. The estimation results indicate that monopolistic competition in the market exists but that the competitiveness of the banks has improved with the increased market concentration. This finding contradicts previous beliefs regarding the increased risk and lower competition derived from a concentrated financial system.     

构建有效率的破产制度

一个有效的破产制度能够在保护债权人利益的前提下实现拯救企业的使命,它能够促进企业融资,改善公司治理、清算低效率企业并实现社会资源的有效配置。在向市场经济体制转轨的过程中,中国的企业破产制度的基本框架已初步建立,但从总体经济绩效来看,它没有在优化企业的治理结构和促进资源的合理配置上发挥出其应有的功能。中国的破产制度存在的严重缺陷,既有破产制度设计上的问题,也有执行中的问题。中国在破产制度的建设方面远远落后于其它转轨国家,这既使我们能够借鉴其他转轨国家的经验教训从而少走弯路,又对加快我国破产制度建设提出了迫切的要求。     

Why are currency crises contagious? A comparison of the Latin American Crisis of 1994–1995 and the Asian Crisis of 1997–1998

Why Are Currency Crises Contagious? A Comparison of the Latin American Crisis of 1994–1995 and the Asian Crisis of 1997–1998.—This paper analyzes three channels through which currency crises are transmitted between countries: contagion based on unsustainable economic fundamentals; contagion resulting from herding behaviour in financial markets; contagion induced by close trade integration. The presented model that links currency crises with these three types of contagion is employed to analyze the transmission of the Mexican crisis in 1994–1995 and the Thai crisis in 1997 to other emerging economies. The empirical results show that, first, the most important contagion channels were based on close financial and trade integration rather than on the weakness of macroeconomic fundamentals. Second, the vulnerability to capital flow reversals and weak financial sectors made countries particularly prone to a currency crisis, while external imbalances and currency misalignments were much less important. JEL no. F30, E60, E65, E44     

Is the Distance to Default a good measure in predicting bank failures? A case study of Japanese major banks

This paper examines the movements of the Distance to Default (DD), a market-based measure of corporate default risk, of major failed Japanese banks in order to evaluate the predictive power of the DD measure for bank failures. The DD became smaller in anticipation of failure for most cases. Both the DD and DD spread, defined as the DD of a failed bank minus the DD of sound banks, were better indicators for deterioration of a failed bank's health than other traditional indicators. A probit model yielded that the quality of the DD was surely better than other measures. For a bank which window-dressed its financial statements, neither the DD nor the DD spread predicted the failure. However, the result was partly due to lack of transparency in financial statements and disclosed information.     

亚洲金融危机应对措施回顾与借鉴

本文简要回顾了1998年亚洲金融危机时我国采取的应对措施及其效果,并分析了当前我国经济中存在的突出问题和当前经济形势与亚洲金融危机时的不同,在此基础上提出了应对危机的对策建议。     

基于面板数据的我国制造业上市公司财务危机预警研究

以制造业上市公司为研究对象,基于Panel logit模型理论,考虑财务比率在时间序列上的趋势性和历史数据对结果的影响,构建了财务危机预警模型,分析了上市公司陷入财务危机的影响因素。实证结果表明:偿债因子、盈利因子、营运因子、资本运用因子和资本结构因子均与上市公司陷入财务危机负相关。     

机器学习算法在房地产企业财务风险预警中的性能比较

基于AdaBoost-SVM的房地产企业财务风险预警模型将支持向量机(SVM)和自适应增强(AdaBoost)算法结合在一起，选取19个财务指标，基于60家房地产上市公司2005—2021年的财务面板数据进行仿真计算以及同类预警模型性能对比分析。结果表明，构建的算法模型在企业财务风险评估预测性能上优于同类4种算法模型，可有效帮助房地产企业提前预警潜在危机，防范财务风险，提升企业的竞争能力。     

银行资本充足率监管对宏观经济的影响——基于亚洲地区的实证研究

<巴塞尔协议>资本充足率的规定已经成为发达国家或发展中国家银行系统资本监管的标准,提高银行资本充足率对于一国的宏观经济是否有负面的影响,(尤其是在经济低迷时期),这一问题在最近的十年中引起广泛的关注.本文借助于Peek和Rosengren的测算方法,通过计算和分析亚洲各国(地区)在经历金融危机后加强资本管制、提高资本充足率对该国宏观经济的影响时发现,这样的举措在经济低迷时期不但不会改善宏观经济状况,反而会恶化经济的发展.     

企业财务风险及其防范

财务风险客观存在于企业财务管理工作的各个环节。建立财务预警分析指标体系对防范企业财务风险尤其必要。此外,要重视和利用现代财务技术措施防范和化解企业财务风险。     

国内外金融危机预警模型述评

随着全球化进程的加快,金融市场逐渐成为各国经济运行的核心。金融体系本身的特殊性,其既给各国经济发展带来了机遇的同时也伴随了大量的风险。世界范围内接连不断的金融危机暴露出金融风险的严重紧迫性和金融危机的破坏性,尤其在发展中国家和新兴市场国家这一问题更加突出。因此,构建有效的金融危机预警体系,筛选恰当的预警指标,能够相对准确的预报警情,确定危机来源,判断危机大小就显得迫切重要。在此对国内外流行的金融危机预警方法的基本原理、模型的发展和缺陷进行梳理和对比分析,为我国金融危机预警研究工作提供参考。     

Were Information Intermediaries Sensitive to the Financial Statement‐Based Leading Indicators of Bank Distress Prior to the Financial Crisis?

In this paper, we address two questions that emerged in the aftermath of the 2008 financial/banking crisis. First, did the financial statements of bank holding companies provide an early warning of their impending distress? Second, were the actions of four key financial intermediaries (short sellers, equity analysts, Standard and Poor's credit ratings, and auditors) sensitive to the information in the banks’ financial statements about their increased risk and potential distress? We find a significant cross‐sectional association between banks’ 2006 Q4 financial information and bank failures over 2008–2010, suggesting that the financial statements reflected at least some of the increased risk of bank distress in advance. The mean abnormal short interest in our sample of banks increased from 0.66 percent in March 2005 to 2.4 percent in March 2007 and the association between short interest and leading financial statement indicators also increased. In contrast, we observe neither a meaningful change in analysts’ recommendations, Standard and Poor's credit ratings, and audit fees nor an increased sensitivity of these actions to financial indicators of bank distress over this time period. Our results suggest that actions of short sellers likely provided an early warning of the banks’ upcoming distress prior to the 2008 financial crisis.     

中国金融风险预警指标体系研究

近年来,随着亚洲金融危机、美国次贷危机以及欧债危机的爆发,全球金融稳定与金融安全面临空前考验,建立一个积极有效的金融风险预警体系来掌握金融风险的整体动态,以防范、降低和消除金融风险成为了金融研究中迫在眉睫的任务。本文借鉴在国际上有广泛影响的KLR信号分析法,根据本国国情建立了一套金融风险预警指标体系,并进一步确定了每个指标的预警临界值,同时通过主客观综合赋权法赋予每个指标相应的权值,以帮助建立符合我国经济发展现状的金融风险预警机制,并针对我国金融风险现状提出了相应对策与建议。     

Power and developmental regimes in Singapore,China and Malaysia

This paper examines three developmental regimes in Singapore, China and Malaysia. In these three cases, heavy state intervention was necessary because their economies required significant economic restructuring. For Singapore, state intervention was necessary for the process of industrial transformation. For Malaysia, state intervention was necessary because the government wanted to reallocate economic resources as a means to deal with ethnic conflict. For China, state intervention was necessary in order to gradually “marketize” the socialist economy. The paper also briefly discusses the impact of the Asian Financial Crisis (1997–1999) on these developmental regimes. It finds that for all three cases, economic restructuring was successful because of long-term and heavy state intervention. It explains that, unlike the other developmental states of Asia, these developmental regimes were able to undertake such significant restructuring because of the state's power base, which even managed to survive the Asian Financial Crisis. It concludes with some comments about the future of state intervention in a rapidly globalizing world.     

公司治理与财务困境关系研究综述

财务困境也称财务危机或财务困难,是公司治理中应注意避免发生的问题。从理论的角度分析公司治理与财务困境的关系,并从股权结构、董事会特征、经理层激励等方面回顾国内外学者对公司治理与财务困境关系的研究,发现公司治理结构对财务困境有着显著影响。     

公司治理、宏观经济环境与财务失败预警研究——离散时间风险模型的应用

已有的财务失败预警模型大多只考虑财务信息的作用,忽视了公司治理状况、宏观经济环境等非财务因素对财务失败的影响。本文综合利用财务信息、公司治理信息和宏观经济信息,采用生存分析中的离散时间风险模型构建我国上市公司的财务失败动态预警模型,并实证检验和比较离散时间风险模型与logistic模型、probit模型的预警能力。研究结果显示,公司治理信息和宏观经济信息对财务失败具有显著的预警作用,在模型中纳入这些非财务信息有助于提高模型的预测效果。研究结果也表明,离散时间风险模型的样本内判别能力和样本外预测能力都高于logistic模型和probit模型。     

金融稳定是否应纳入中国货币政策目标——基于混频IS-Phillips模型的实证分析

文章首先使用混频动态因子模型（MF-DFM），构建中国首个混频金融稳定指数（MF-FSI），接着把MF-FSI作为金融稳定的代理变量，使用文章新构建的混频IS-Phillips模型，比较分析纳入与不纳入金融稳定的中国货币政策损失函数差异，最后对货币政策目标选择和时效选择进行了敏感性分析，实证分析表明：（1）中国混频金融稳定指数是金融稳定的一个实时性有效测度指标；（2）中国货币政策目标应纳入金融稳定，以减少货币政策福利损失；（3）无论中国货币政策目标偏好和预期偏好怎样变化，央行都应给予金融稳定固定且不可忽略的关注度，但物价稳定和经济增长仍为主要货币政策目标。