货币政策的博弈分析

作为宏观调控主要工具的货币政策,在为维持经济的持续稳定发展方面,发挥了巨大的作用.在新的国际国内政治经济环境下,如何更有效地发挥货币政策的作用,实现国民经济的迅速发展,这是一个值得关注和研究的问题.用博弈理论来分析研究货币政策,是一个很好的选择和办法.货币政策并不是政府单方面说了算的,而是多方面博弈的结果.社会公众的预期在理性与适应性之间,减弱了货币政策的传递效力;投资主体对投资收益的不利预期降低了货币政策传导机制的有效性;金融衍生市场的发展复杂化了货币政策工具的作用环境,不确定因素增加,使货币政策效应模糊了.因此,货币政策的选择应与国内、国际具体情况相对应,在博弈中达到均衡.     

惯性,传导机制与宏观经济政策效力——双重体制下的中国宏观经济分析

本文从中国过渡经济中存在着计划和市场两种资源配置机制的现实出发，提出了计划方式的体制惯性与市场方式的经济惯性的对撞与摩擦是影响宏观经济政策效力的内在因素。着眼于双重体制下的微观基础和传导机制，本文具体分析了财政，货币政策效力不同的原因，以及由此导致的经济管理层对财政支出扩张的需求效应有依赖倾向，而对供给效应重视不足的事实，并指出现阶段政策工具操作与理想的市场化的结果没有必然。     

关于通货紧缩时期货币政策取向的几点建议

当前经济处于实际的通货紧缩阶段 ,在货币流通领域中通过种种指标表现出来 ,而目前宽松的货币政策并没有取得相应效力 ,在此基础上 ,本文浅析关于今后货币政策取向的几点建议。     

关于利率政策与货币政策效力关系的一点思考与探索

利率政策会影响一国货币政策的制定和实施，尤其在开放经济条件下，利率效应在国际间存在传递，加剧了央行制定货币政策的难度。货币政策效力趋于减弱甚至无效。本文从消费、投资两个方面分析了我国利率政策效率低下，货币政策效力不大。在此基础上，提出了如何改善利率政策，进而提高货币政策效力。     

我国货币政策效果的影响因素分析

货币政策效果受货币政策工具、传导机制、实体经济对货币的需求等多种因素影响 ,受上述因素制约 ,我国用扩张性货币政策对付通货紧缩的效果并不显著     

货币政策意外、利率期限结构与通货膨胀预期管理

本文基于利率期限结构分析了通货膨胀预期对中央银行货币政策意外和中央银行沟通行为的反应,并对通货膨胀预期管理的效果进行了评价。结果显示:货币政策意外在一定程度上增加了市场的中短期通胀预期,对长期通胀预期的影响不大;公开市场操作、存贷款利率调整和存款准备金率调整三种货币政策操作对通胀预期的影响存在明显差异;央行惯例沟通对通胀预期没有影响,央行行长讲话会加大通胀预期波动;货币政策操作和央行沟通行为对通胀预期的冲击在2008～2009年出现了结构性变化;通胀预期管理效果一直不佳,需要进一步完善通胀预期形成及其传导机制并改善央行的政策操作与沟通行为。     

基于VAR模型的我国货币政策有效性实证分析

货币政策有效性包括工具的有效性、传导机制的效率以及能否达到预期目标,而评价货币政策是否有效的最终依据是货币政策的实施效果.文章构建了测度货币政策有效性的VAK模型,利用脉冲响应函数分析了相关变量对CPI影响的强弱程度及其对货币政策发生效力的滞后时间,认为我国的货币政策是基本有效的,货币供给量M0是近期货币政策中较合适的货币政策工具,并提出了将价格型工具和数量型工具混合使用以实现货币政策预期目标的建议.     

货币政策对收益率曲线变动的影响

本文分析了货币政策变动与国债收益率曲线之间在理论上的一般联系。并且根据预期理论,采用主成分分析方法,以央行票据发行利率作为货币政策的工具指标,研究了我国央行的公开市场操作对收益率曲线的影响以及收益率曲线变动模式的影响因素。研究发现中期的国债收益率曲线能够较好的反应货币政策的变化。但是,受水平因素、倾斜因素、曲率因素和凸度因素的影响,收益率曲线存在明显的短、中、长期分割现象。货币政策的变化使我国的市场收益率曲线发生了非平行的移动,甚至扭曲,传统的预期假说不成立。     

西部地区货币政策实施效应研究

货币政策区域效应的存在使得统一的货币政策给我国西部区域经济的发展带来不利因素。文章具体分析了西部地区货币供求的自身特征及政策传导的差异,根据近年来货币政策实践对西部地区的调控效果,认为,近年来货币政策对区域差异的关注,在一定程度上缩减了地区间经济差距,但效果并不是十分显著。要使货币政策对西部区域经济发挥更大效力,需要改善西部地区的金融生态环境,进一步探索区域差别的货币政策。     

外贸减速背景下我国政策工具调节效力分析——基于SVAR模型的实证研究

本文运用结构向量自回归SVAR模型,对2003～2011年间我国各项政策工具在调节贸易收支方面的综合效力展开实证分析,并结合理论文献充分阐述各项政策发挥效力的传导机制,力图为中国当前政策搭配决策提供科学的理论与实证依据。本文主要结论是,在调节贸易收支失衡方面,我国货币政策比财政政策更加有效。脉冲响应函数显示,扩张性货币政策能够有效缩小贸易顺差,而且货币政策冲击在10个月后达到最大效力,2年后达到最大累积效力。财政支出扩张对贸易顺差有"先抑制再推动"的作用,但政策效力十分有限。人民币名义汇率的正向冲击能够对贸易收支造成显著的"倒J曲线效应"。与传统观点不同,国内要素价格上调在1年半左右的时间窗口不会抑制反而会扩大贸易盈余。上述实证结论支持在外贸减速背景下继续推进包括工资在内的生产要素价格改革,同时建议货币政策制定时应充分考虑对贸易收支的显著影响。     

我国货币供应量、物价水平与经济增长之间关系的实证研究

针对我国2001～2010年季度数据,通过使用协整关系检验、格兰杰因果检验以及方差分解分析方法进行实证研究发现,长期内我国货币供给的变化与物价和产出的变化之间存在唯一的协整关系;同时存在一个单向的Granger因果关系:货币供给增长率是物价水平增长率的Granger原因,即长期内货币供应量仅对物价水平产生影响。最后根据实证分析结果对货币政策选择提出政策建议。     

美联储货币政策对中国货币政策的溢出效应研究

文章主要研究了美国货币政策对中国货币政策的溢出效应,理论部分分析了在开放经济条件下两国模型关于货币政策跨国传输等相关问题。货币供给分为国内供给和外部输入,通过中央银行资产负债表中资产负债的变化可以分析外部货币的输入影响到基础货币的被动投放,在流通过程中由于乘数效应影响了货币供给量。外部货币的输入影响央行调控独立性的发挥,外部货币的输入容易形成对国内货币市场和产品市场某种程度的冲击,央行货币政策调控的难度增加。经验分析发现,美元输入对中国货币政策存在溢出效应,影响到中国的基础货币投放,影响到中国的货币政策的独立性以及执行的效果。     

Money demand and monetary policy in Europe

Money Demand and Monetary Policy in Europe.—The European Central Bank will soon have to decide on her monetary strategy. This paper discusses properties of money demand functions and implications for monetary policy in a monetary targeting regime. Special attention is paid to different concepts of stability of money demand, to the length and variability of adjustment lags, and to the controllability of the money stock. At the European level, stable money demand functions are identified for M1 and M3. However, M3 appears to be less controllable than M1. Long and variable adjustment lags in the demand for M3 weaken the case for broad money as a monetary target. JEL no. E41, E52     

Keynes's Approach to Money: An Assessment After Seventy Years

This paper first examines two approaches to money adopted by Keynes in the General Theory. The first is the more familiar ‘supply and demand’ equilibrium approach of Chapter 13 incorporated within conventional macroeconomics textbooks. Indeed, even Post Keynesians utilizing Keynes's ‘finance motive’ or the ‘horizontal’ money supply curve adopt similar methodology. The second approach of the General Theory is presented in Chapter 17, where Keynes drops ‘money supply and demand’ in favor of a liquidity preference approach to asset prices that offers a more satisfactory treatment of money's role in constraining effective demand. In the penultimate section, I return to Keynes's earlier work in the Treatise on Money as well as the early drafts of the General Theory to obtain a better understanding of the nature of money. I conclude with policy implications.     

Money growth volatility and the demand for money in Germany: Friedman’s volatility hypothesis revisited

Money Growth Volatility and the Demand for Money in Germany: Friedman’s Volatility Hypothesis Revisited. — Recently, the Bundesbank claimed that monetary targeting has become considerably more difficult by the increased volatility of short-term money growth. The present paper investigates the impact of German money growth volatility on income velocity and money demand in view of Friedman’s money growth volatility hypothesis. Granger-causality tests provide some evidence for a velocity/volatility linkage. However, the estimation of volatility-augmented money demand functions reveals that — in contrast to Friedman’s hypothesis — increased money growth volatility lowered the demand for money.     

Brussels on a single money

This review article discusses the recent document titled “One Market, One Money” in which the European Commission develops its case for European monetary union. After examining the monetary issues as such, the article focuses on the reasons for the Commission's very worried attitude about fiscal policy autonomy. The closing section considers the problem of the transition to a single money. Attention is also called to the issue of a lender of last resort.     

Is there a direct effect of money?: Money’s role in an estimated monetary business cycle model of the Japanese economy

In this paper, to study the alternative monetary transmission mechanism to the traditional interest rate channel which may even work under zero nominal interest rates, we estimate the monetary business cycle model of the Japanese economy that incorporates the direct role of money. Estimation is conducted on the system of equations in a state-space form via maximum likelihood estimation. We, however, find that the direct effect of money is extremely small in Japan. This finding is the same as those obtained for the U.S. in Ireland [Ireland, P., 2004. Money’s role in the monetary business cycle. Journal of Money, Credit and Banking 36, 969–984] and the Euro area in Andres et al. [Andres, J., Lopez-Salido, D., Valles, J., 2001. Money in an Estimated Business Cycle Model of the Euro area. Working Paper 121, Bank of Spain].     

The stability of money demand in Germany and in the EMS: Impact of German unification

The Stability of Narrow Money Demand in Germany and Aggregate Money Demand in the EMS: Impact of German Unification. —This paper shows that the German monetary union not only had an impact on the stability of the narrow money demand in Germany but also on the stability of the aggregate demand for money in two larger European currency areas, consisting of three and seven EMS countries. However, the impact was only of a temporary nature. The empirical results show that the close link between real money, output, and the interest rate still exists. In a European Monetary Union, narrow money thus remains a potential candidate as an indicator and/or intermediate target for the European Central Bank.     

Volatility transmission along the money market yield curve

Volatility Transmission along the Money Market Yield Curve. - The authors model the volatility of money market interest rates — and the transmission of volatility - along the money market yield curve in the UK, Germany, France and Spain. They find a significant volatility transmission from overnight to longer-term money market rates in France, Spain and the U.K. They also find that the countries with lower (higher) reserve requirements tend to have higher (lower) interbank interest rate volatility. However, reserve requirements generate a perverse seasonal effect at the end of the maintenance period.     

电子货币供给机制分析

电子货币的发行与传统的货币供给机制有很大差别,在网络经济下电子货币的供给有两种形式:一是电子货币仅作为支付手段时的供给机制,二是电子货币作为银行一般性负债时的供给机制.网络经济下电子货币的供给完全是一种竞争性的市场行为,随着电子货币的发展,必将对传统的由中央银行垄断货币供给的机制提出挑战.