信息不对称视角下我国P2P网络借贷风险问题初探

P2P网络借贷日渐成为一种新型的民间借贷方式,但近年来P2P网贷平台倒闭、借款人跑路现象层出不穷也揭示了P2P网贷市场平均风险较高的事实。其主要原因是P2P网络借贷平台中借贷双方的信息不对称容易产生逆向选择和道德风险问题。文章通过建立P2P网络借贷的"柠檬"市场模型来分析平台中的逆向选择问题,并给出了具体的政策建议。     

基于博弈论视角的P2P网贷问题分析

P2P网贷的健康发展不仅有利于互联网金融向前发展,更有利于维护好我国资金借贷市场,规范民间融资发展。文章通过分析投资者、网贷公司、借款者之间的关系,运用不完全信息动态博弈模型研究P2P网贷问题,最后结合研究结果给出可行性的建议。     

2015,网贷行业兑付风险集中暴发? P2P投资人:“富贵险中求”

在"3·15"消费者权益保护日前后,P2P网贷平台盛融在线、金马甲及陆金所陆续被爆出坏账事件。P2P门户网站"网贷之家"最新数据显示,截至2015年2月,网贷平台已有1646家,累计问题平台已达494家。目前网贷行业累计投资人达140万,活跃投资人达80万。3月12日,央行行长周小川在十二届全国人大三次会议记者会上指出,P2P网络借贷是互联网金融的业态之一,由于没有申请取得金融机构执照,属于民间金融。而备受业内期     

信息不对称条件下P2P网贷投资风险因素分析

信息不对称问题是导致目前网贷平台问题频发的重要原因,严重阻碍借贷市场的健康发展。本文从信息不对称的角度出发,分析当前P2P网贷主要存在的审核机制不健全、"赌博性融资"、羊群效应等风险因素。从投资者,平台,政府部门立场提出改善P2P网贷风险管理状况的对策。     

P2P网贷风险及法律防范

P2P网贷平台作为一种新兴事物,发展迅猛。尤其是借助"互联网+"的概念,P2P网贷平台更是日渐盛行。P2P网贷平台为小微企业和个人提供短期、小额贷款,活跃了民间金融市场。同时,对于拥有少量闲散资金的个人,P2P网贷平台提供了一种新型的投资理财模式,成为传统金融的有益补充。然而,由于各种内外因素的叠加,导致P2P网贷平台不能很好地将借贷双方对接在一起,出现了一系列问题。所以,相关政策和法律应当及时跟进,严格规范,才能发挥P2P网贷平台应有的作用,促进我国网络小额借贷资本市场良性发展。     

浅析P2P网贷借款人风险及其影响因素

近年来,P2P网贷平台凭借其快速方便且无抵押迅速发展,截至2016年年底,P2P网贷行业正常平台为2448家,全年成交量达到20638.72亿元,年底贷款余额达到8162.24亿元。这样爆发式发展的同时也带来了很多的监管和风险方面的问题,因其抵抗风险的能力远低于传统商业银行,所以跑路的戏码也是时时刻刻在上演,其中很大一部分原因就是对于借款人的审核不够全面造成坏账从而使平台破产。文章通过剖析其内部审核运作及对比传统借贷解读P2P网贷借款人风险及其影响因素。     

P2P网络借贷投资者影响因素的博弈模型分析

P2P网络借贷借助于互联网的发展优势和民间借贷的传统优势,在金融领域里开创了一条新的借贷模式。在我国,P2P网络借贷依靠独特的运营模式促成其成交量正在迅速增长。文章以博弈论为基础建立P2P网络借贷借款者和投资者的博弈模型,分析双方的博弈过程,试图找出P2P网络借贷投资者的主要影响因素。     

P2P网贷平台的发展现状及问题研究

我国P2P网贷平台从2006年5月开始起步,截至到2016年7月底,共有2 281家网贷平台运营.运营模式有纯线上、债权转让等.该平台存在流动性、信用性、操作性和法律性风险.加强管控要明确网络借贷的性质、完善信用体系建设、加强行业自律、落实监管政策和加强投资者的风险意识和自我保护意识.同时要不断加强网络技术、投资人和网贷平台的法律意识,营造良好的融资环境,确保P2P网贷平台有序运行.     

我国网贷（P2P）行业竞争力与前景研究

网贷系统，是个人间借贷与网络借贷相结合的金融服务网站。网络借贷指的是借贷过程中，资料、资金、合同、手续等元素全部通过网络实现的模式，这种金融模式随互联网的成长和民间借贷的兴起而发展，同时也是未来金融服务的重要分支。本文将基于中美互联网金融发展环境，有利网与lending club对比，针对我国网贷行业的竞争力与前景做定性与定量的深入分析和研究。     

我国P2P网贷发展现状及监管对策探讨

P2P网络借贷是依托于计算机网络而形成一种金融模式,它的出现给个人提供了新的融资渠道和融资便利,是对当前金融体系的有效补充。对比分析中国和美、欧发展环境对P2P网贷的适合度,介绍我国P2P网贷的四种模式,并在此基础上探讨P2P网贷的监管对策。     

Policy rate pass-through and the adjustment of retail interest rates: Empirical evidence from Malaysian financial institutions

The paper examines the interest rate pass-through from money market rates to various retail rates in Malaysia within the framework of an error-correction model. We estimate the short- and long-run interest rate pass-through and analyse the asymmetric behaviour of financial institutions under different monetary regimes. The results show that both deposit and lending rate pass-throughs are incomplete. However, pass-through and speed of adjustment vary across financial institutions and retail rates. This analysis also shows that interest rate adjustments are asymmetric, with more significant adjustments taking place under monetary easing than under monetary tightening. These results provide support for the existence of the interest rate channel of monetary policy in Malaysia. There is thus a need to conduct effective monetary operations to support efficient monetary transmission in Malaysia.     

Dual-track interest rates and the conduct of monetary policy in China

China has a dual-track interest-rate system: bank deposit and lending rates are regulated while money and bond rates are market-determined. The central bank also imposes an indicative target, which may not be binding at all times, for total credit in the banking system. We develop and calibrate a theoretical model to illustrate the conduct of monetary policy within the framework of dual-track interest rates and a juxtaposition of price- and quantity-based policy instruments. We show the transmission of monetary policy instruments to market interest rates, which, together with the indicative credit target in the banking system, ultimately are the means by which monetary policy affects the real economy. The model shows that market interest rates are most sensitive to changes in the benchmark deposit interest rates, significantly responsive to changes in the reserve requirements, but not particularly reactive to open market operations. These theoretical results are verified and supported by both linear and GARCH models using daily money and bond market data. Overall, the findings of this study help us to understand why the central bank conducts monetary policy in China the way it does, using a combination of price and quantitative instruments with differing degrees of potency in terms of their influence on the cost of credit.     

The lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia

This study evaluates the bank lending channel of monetary policy in Indonesia by using quarterly bank-level data over the period of 2005-2016. I find that the lending channel of monetary policy works for all banks, both large and small. The results suggest that higher capital buffers and better liquidity positions moderate the impact of changes in monetary policy on credit growth for large banks, while capital buffers and liquidity positions do not alter the strength of the lending channel for small banks. The findings indicate that the central bank can use prudential instruments affecting capital buffers and liquidity positions for managing the strength of adjustment in the monetary policy interest rate on bank credit growth.     

融资成本能评价新型货币政策工具的有效性吗

提升货币政策效果是近年来我国宏观经济调控改革中的重要任务,而如何正确评价货币政策有效性则是这一任务的前提条件。基于此,结合我国经济新变化,文章在经典的CC-LM模型中纳入了新型货币政策工具,从理论上分析了新型货币政策工具对信贷利率与实际产出的传导机制,并应用具有时变参数的TVP-SV-VAR模型进一步检验了理论分析的结论。理论研究与实证检验一致得出：第一,从对实际产出的影响来看,中期借贷便利为代表的新型货币投放方式是有效的;第二,中期借贷便利仅能降低短期信贷利率,而长期将提升信贷利率;第三,中期借贷便利与LPR报价市场的市场化程度提升可强化货币政策有效性。此外,实证研究还表明,依靠中期借贷便利方式投放基础货币会造成吉布逊谜团的现象,因此能否降低融资成本并不能作为评价货币政策有效性的指标。籍此,文章对如何优化新型货币政策有效性提出了富有建设性的政策建议。     

利率调整对股票价格的短长期效应研究

股票市场在资本市场中扮演重要角色,基准利率的利率调整是货币当局调控股票市场的重要工具。本文从定性和定量两个角度研究基准利率的利率调整对股票价格变动的短长期影响。本文采用Granger因果检验对存款基准利率的调整与上证指数的变动的关系进行研究,结果发现二者不存在因果关系。     

资本充足率、存款准备金率与货币政策银行信贷传导——基于银行业市场结构的分析

基于垄断竞争的银行业市场结构,研究银行在受到资本充足率和存款准备金率双重约束条件下,在面对货币政策冲击的情况下所做出的最优信贷决策行为。通过构造贷款市场总体均衡模型,得出以下结论:当银行满足资本充足率和存款准备金率要求时,货币政策的银行信贷传导渠道表现出有效性;而当贷款市场中的银行不能满足资本充足率或存款准备金率要求时,货币政策的银行信贷传导渠道则表现出无效性。     

Chinese monetary policy and the banking system

Chinese monetary policy differs from that of many other countries in its use of multiple policy instruments. This paper assesses the effectiveness of some of the instruments employed, using a model of the banking sector and elasticities estimated from Chinese data. We find that direct interest rate changes are a poorer instrument of monetary control in China than changes in reserve requirement ratios and loan-to-deposit ratios. This finding is based on the ambiguous estimated response of deposit demand to such changes, and may help to explain why changes to administered interest rates have been used sparingly as an instrument of Chinese monetary policy. We also find that the ambiguous deposit demand response could pose challenges for the effectiveness of open market operations under interest rate liberalisation, while exchange rate liberalisation is likely to make monetary instruments more powerful.     

Dynamics of Money Market Interest Rates in Ghana: Time-Frequency Analysis of Volatility Spillovers

As the second longest practicing inflation targeting economy in Africa, it is of interest to investigate the degree to which policy interest rate influences other money market rates so as to gauge the overall effectiveness of monetary policy transmission in Ghana. This study evaluates the degree of connectedness among money market rates and also determines the most dominant money market rate(s) in Ghana. The basic finding is that the monetary policy rate has a low-to-moderate influence on volatility dynamics of other money market rates in Ghana across historical time-interval and time-frequency domains. This is a reflection of a generally weak capability of policy interest rate to drive other market rates in Ghana. Both monetary policy rate and Treasury bill rate are net transmitters of shocks, while interbank, lending and saving rates are net receivers of shocks in the money market. However, the Treasury bill emerges as the largest shock transmitter in the money market, across all forecast horizons and analytical domains. The lending rate is the largest shock recipient in the money market, largely from the Treasury bill rate which suggests ample evidence of fiscal dominance in Ghana. The study accentuates the exigency for monetary and fiscal policies to expeditiously address the domestic structural bottlenecks, especially in the financial sector and the fragile fiscal profile, in order to strengthen policy transmission in Ghana.     

我国存款准备金率上调空间的统计评估

存款准备金率是金融机构为保证客户提取存款和资金清算需要而存放在中央银行的存款占其存款总额的比例。作为一种货币政策工具,存款准备金率的变动对经济系统平稳运行有着显著影响,而近年来我国存款准备金率的频繁调整引起了国内外的高度重视。文章以此为基础,构建了符合存款准备金率变动实际的统计模型,并对2011下半年大型金融机构存款准备金率的变动趋势进行统计预测,保守估计认为存款准备金率至多出现三次调整机会,时间分别为2011年9月、11月和12月,上调空间预计达到23%。     

Influence of the Banks' Money Mediation Behavior on the Monetary Policy: A Study of Korean Case

Abstract

This paper analyses how financial institutions' arbitrary intermediation behaviors, including adjustments in bank lending and deposit rates, influence monetary policy transmission channels. For the analysis, we develop a New Keynesian Dynamic Stochastic General Equilibrium (NK DSGE) model with parameters estimated to fit the Korean conditions. The role of banks is subsequently examined by classifying monetary policy transmission channels (real rate channel, nominal debt channel, financial accelerating channel, and banking attenuator channel). A notable part of this analysis is the inclusion of the banking sector in the model specifically with the intent to study transmissions from the financial sector to the real economy. This paper follows this line of inquiry with recent research in mind. Empirical analysis verifies the existence of the banking attenuator effect in Korea, which means banks act to reduce the effect of monetary policies. This indicates that if financial intermediaries strengthen arbitrary adjustment behaviors of lending and deposit rates, the effect of the monetary policy intended to relieve volatility in the business cycle may not be as high as expected.