中国地区增长是否存在收敛?——随机框架下的再讨论

针对单个面板单位根检验结果具有多种可能含义的问题,本文基于多种面板单位根检验方法以及验证分析(confirmatory analysis)的思路,对改革开放以来我国各地区经济增长的随机收敛特性进行了再检验。结果发现,全国范围内并不存在全局性的随机收敛,借助序贯分类方法,我们发现相对于全国水平的随机收敛只出现在六个省区。进一步检验也未发现存在俱乐部式随机收敛的证据。发展失衡已经成为我国地区经济增长的显著特征,推动地区发展重回均衡应成为经济政策的重要核心。本文研究还表明在对面板单位根检验结果进行解释时需要谨慎。     

基于面板数据方法的泉州市居民收入收敛性实证研究

利用1999-2008年泉州市各县(市、区)的人均收入面板数据,应用多种面板单位根检验方法对泉州市城镇及农村居民人均收入是否存在区域收敛性进行实证检验。结果发现,城镇在岗职工平均工资既存在β-绝对收敛,也存在β-条件收敛,而农村居民人均纯收入只存在β-绝对收敛,而不存在β-条件收敛。     

对费雪效应的重新考察:来自面板协整的国际新证据

本文利用50个国家1981～2007年的面板数据重新考察了费雪效应.面板单位根检验发现,利率和通货膨胀率均存在单位根;异质面板协整检验的结论认为,弱费雪效应显著成立;利用完全修正的OLS和动态OLS方法对发达国家和发展中国家分别进行估计和检验,发现发展中国家存在弱费雪效应,而发达国家存在严格费雪效应;文章最后讨论了本文研究结论的货币政策含义,分析了中国利率政策实施中的问题并提出了建议.     

中国省域间居民收入水平收敛性实证检验

利用2000-2008年我国31个省级区域人均收入面板数据,应用多种面板单位根检验方法和不同比较基准对全国及东、中、西三大区域的城镇及农村居民人均收入是否存在收敛性进行实证检验。结果发现,以北京人均收入为基准,不管是全国还是三大区域,不管是城镇还是农村,都只存在条件收敛,不存在绝对收敛。而以全国人均收入为基准,在全国层面城镇和农村都既存在绝对收敛,也存在条件收敛。以组内平均水平为基准时,三个区域的城镇都存在对本组内平均水平的绝对收敛,农村情况基本相反,三个区域都不存在绝对收敛。东部和西部存在条件收敛,而中部不存在条件收敛。     

黄河流域农业绿色全要素生产率的时空差异及收敛性分析

本文在考虑将农业碳排放指标作为农业绿色转型发展中的非期望产出指标基础上,构建了黄河流域农业绿色全要素生产率测算指标体系,并基于非期望产出的SBM模型和收敛性模型,测算了2010年以来黄河流域农业绿色全要素生产率的时空差异,对其收敛性进行了分析。结果表明,在时间维度,黄河流域农业绿色全要素生产率呈现逐年递增趋势;在空间维度,黄河流域各省份农业绿色全要素生产率发展并不均衡,下游省份农业绿色全要素生产率依次优于中游和上游省份。在收敛性方面,黄河流域各省份农业绿色全要素生产率并不存在收敛和收敛,即不存在农业绿色全要素生产率低的省份向高省份的“追赶效应”。     

1952～2007年我国地区收入差距变化趋势——基于省际面板数据的单位根检验

本文利用1952～2007年我国31个省际地区人均GDP数据,对地区间收入差距的变化趋势进行检验。结果发现:从整个样本期间来看,我国地区收入差距在逐渐缩小;以改革开放为节点分不同时段,检验结果表明改革前我国省际地区收入差距不断缩小,而改革后,我国地区收入差距不断扩大。     

全球制造业传统与环境生产率变化及收敛性的比较论证

文章旨在通过2000-2009年期间数据研究制造业在全球经济体以及不同行业之间传统生产率以及能源生产率的变化趋势以及收敛特征。相比于传统生产率,在核算能源生产率过程中纳入了二氧化碳排放量等非期望型产出。分别采用DEA-Malmquist以及Global Malmquist Luenberger指数法测算两类生产率指数并进行比较分析,进而对分经济体以及分行业两类生产率进行了收敛性的检验。研究指出制造业在经济体之间以及行业之间的δ收敛特征均不明显,但除了重工业的传统生产率,其他分经济体以及分行业之间两类生产率都存在显著的绝对β收敛以及条件β收敛。总体上能源效率的收敛速度低于传统效率,但在不同行业及经济体之间,收敛的态势与表现存在较大的差异。     

中国对外贸易对工人工资的影响——基于工业部门的画板数据分析

目前，关于国际贸易对中国居民收入的影响研究较多，但关于国际贸易对某个产业的影响研究并不多。本文从工业角度分析国际贸易对工人工资的影响，先基于S—S定理和放大效应等贸易理论从理论上分析，再通过工业部门的面板数据进行实证检验，包括面板单位根检验、协整检验、固定与随机效应检验和面板数据回归。     

结构转换如何影响全要素生产率：机制与检验

基于省际面板数据和动态空间面板模型，实证检验了结构转换对全要素生产率的影响效应。结果显示，结构转换与全要素生产率之间呈现“倒U”形关系，当前结构转换尚处于“倒U”曲线左侧，即结构转换对全要素生产率具有正向促进作用。各地区间结构转换的影响效应存在明显异质性，东部、西部及东北地区结构转换均能显著促进全要素生产率提升，而中部地区却表现为抑制作用，周边地区结构转换将会对东部地区全要素生产率产生明显正向效应。据此提出相关政策建议，以加快中国新旧产能有序转换及推动经济高质量发展。     

巴拉萨-萨缪尔森假说的实证检验--来自亚洲的证据

本文利用亚洲10个国家和地区面板数据检验了巴拉萨一萨缪尔森假说是否成立。实证分析所用的方法主要是面板单位根检验和面板协整检验。实证结果表明，该假说不成立。进一步地，本文对构成该假说的三个主要的假设进行了检验。结果表明，非贸易品的相对价格的变动并不能引起实际汇率水平的变动是该假说不成立的原因。     

On the Major Transformation of the Asia-Pacific Regional Structure北大核心CSSCISSCI

Recent years have witnessedsignificant changes in the Asia-Pacific regionalstructure featuring the shift in power balance among related countries as well as adjust-ments in their respective regional strategies. So what is the prevailing trend in thistransformation and what kind of regional order will likely emerge in the future？ To an-swer these questions, the paper tries to explore the following dimensions： the evolvingregional context, shift in power balance and power conversion, geo-political and geo-e-conomic developments and interactions between them, and evolving regional order. Asthe study shows, the broadening of regional geographical scope, the rise in the numberof actors involved, as well as changesin the relations among them, have combined tocast a pluralistic and complex flavor to the regional structure. While the power balanceamong China, the United States and Japan shifts, and power conversion is also occur-ring. China and Japan are paying increasing attention to their security roles, whereasthe United States under the Obama administration laid more stress on expanding itsgeo-economic clout. In spite of the intensifying geopolitical competition among China,the United States and Japan in recent years, a Sino-US strategic compromise-whichholds the key to regional geopolitics-isother front, some kind of geo-economicmore likely to take place in the future. On thecooperation will probably emerge. In the longerterm, it will be the geo-economic trend thatwill prevail over the geopolitical trend inthe region. Finally, the future evolution of regional order wiI1 mainly follow the eco-nomic logic, accompanied by the dilutionof its hegemonic and hierarchical nature.Hence, a pluralistic and complex regional community will emerge.     

区域工业产业竞争力指标体系的构建及其评价方法研究

文章通过建立省级区域工业产业竞争力评价指标体系,设计竞争力模型,利用SPSS统计软件,对各省工业产业竞争力进行了评价测定。     

文化传播中电视暴力对青少年侵犯行为的影响

伴随当代传媒产业的蓬勃发展,暴力也成为影视艺术基本的叙事类型及消费主义文化日趋盛行的现实语境。＂电视暴力＂是作为＂媒介暴力＂的一个子概念存在的;从文化传播看电视暴力,其覆盖面大,且易于接触;电视暴力对受众特别是青少年的影响巨大而深刻。要从制作者、传播者和观众三个方面的自律出发,建立适应我国国情的影视分级制。     

理性与先验的完美整合——论笛卡尔的"上帝"观

笛卡尔是西方近代主体性哲学的先驱,是近代唯理论学说的创始人,他使人们从中世纪宗教势力的禁锢中解放了出来.虽然"上帝"这个被人们视为理性最大敌人的概念在他的哲学中大量存在,但他极力证明上帝存在的最终目的却是为了证明理性的伟大;作为真理化身的上帝,归根到底是为他的理性主义服务的.     

Organization and incentives in the age of sail

The British Navy in the age of sail was the most successful bureaucracy of its time. Its organization and incentive structures differed importantly from contemporaneous private sailing ventures, but closely resembled those of today’s large corporations. To induce efficient effort, the navy used a hierarchical tournament, in which sailors competed for higher pay that came with promotions based on relative performance. Promotion probabilities, the option value of future promotions, and the higher effort required of men in higher ranks and on larger vessels, combined to yield a highly skewed pay structure.     

The German Hanse and Bergen – new perspectives on an old subject

Abstract

The Hanseatic League and her kontors (trading posts) were an integral part of the medieval trade system in Northern Europe. Hanse merchants dominated many markets in this region and managed to maintain a monopoly-like role in towns like Novgorod and Bergen for many centuries. Consequently, one focus of historical research about the Hanseatic League lay on the mechanisms that enabled the Hanse merchants to keep that strong of a position for such a long time.

This article is part of the discussion about this topic. Based on Lübeck merchants with business interest in the Norwegian town of Bergen, the so-called Bergenfahrers (Bergen travellers), it will give new insights into the Hansards' economical and social organization. The three main points are (a) the integration of the Bergen market in the Hanseatic trade network as an intermediary trading place on the vivid East–West route of Hanse trade; (b) the importance of the Bergenfahrers within the Hanse merchants' economical, social and political networks; and (c) the structure of the Bergenfahrers network patterns in the late Middle Ages.

In addition to new insights into the important role of Bergen and the Bergenfahrers within Lübeck's and the other Wendish Hanse towns' trading system, this articles provides further proof for the usefulness of the methods of Social Network Analysis in medieval economic research.     

Financial Reporting and Trade Credit: Evidence from Mandatory IFRS Adoption*

We investigate the effect of mandatory IFRS adoption on trade credit. We document that firms in countries that adopt IFRS receive more trade credit from their suppliers, consistent with improved financial reporting quality and comparability playing a role in facilitating informal financing. This increase is larger for countries with a low level of societal trust, a poor pre‐IFRS‐adoption information environment, and stronger legal enforcement. These cross‐sectional results suggest that the conditions under which higher‐quality information is made publicly available affect suppliers' decisions to provide trade credit. This increase is also larger for firms with greater exposure to foreign markets, a finding that highlights the importance of more comparable international financial reporting standards in facilitating cross‐country trade credit. We also find that IFRS adoption has a stronger positive effect on trade credit for firms with greater liquidity needs. Finally, we find that firms in countries that adopt IFRS also extend more trade credit to their customers. Overall, our results support the notion that financial reporting can have a causal effect on trade credit.