新地理经济学的发展研究

1977年,狄克斯特和斯蒂格利茨的D-S模型建立,助推了经济学家对长久以来根深蒂固的规模报酬不变的重新审视,1991年,克罗格曼将规模报酬递增和不完全竞争的假设引入到经济活动空间集聚的分析上,弥补了传统经济学理论分析对于空间维度的忽略,开启了新地理经济学研究的浪潮。空间集聚或扩散是集聚向心力和离心力相互作用的结果,克罗格曼之后的经济学家致力于拓展向心力因素或离心力因素的范围。通过文献的梳理,我们可以更好地理解产业集聚形成的作用机理、明确新地理经济学未来发展的方向。     

中国制造业集聚的决定因素与变动趋势——基于三大经济圈的实证分析

地理因素、报酬递增因素、政策因素在制造业集聚中都是重要影响因素,但在各个地区却存在着很大差异。寻找这种差异对于我国制造业中心的发展具有重要意义。本文以中国三大经济圈为例对中国制造业集聚的决定因素进行了实证分析。实证结果表明,环渤海地区制造业集聚的显著影响因素有技术外部性、内部规模经济和本地市场效应;长三角地区制造业集聚的显著影响因素不仅包括内部规模经济和本地市场效应,而且还包括经济开放因素;影响珠江三角洲地区制造业积聚的显著因素有地理因素和内部规模经济因素。     

新经济增长理论的启发意义和局限性分析

新经济增长理论通过技术对经济增长的作用机制的分析，一定程度上解决了规模报酬递增和一般均衡分析的相容性，解释了经济内生化增长问题，其启发意义在于提供了一种重新看待知识或人力资本及其相关问题的新视角。但是这些理论克服不了由总量生产函数研究结构和一般均衡分析方法自身的先天缺陷，正是这种先天缺陷本身使该理论的视野拓展在很大程度上成为不可能。因此，要真正能给经济增长提供药方，现有的经济增长理论必须进行重构。     

珠三角区域跨界环境问题的经济分析

由于忽视了环境外部性的存在,目前珠江三角洲地区的跨界污染问题很严重;通过空间计量经济模型实证,发现某地区的污染排放量不止和本地区的经济增长有关系,也受邻近城市经济发展水平的影响,珠三角的环境质量与经济增长在空间上表现出相互作用;最后给出了解决跨界环境问题的对策建议。     

广东省贫困村空间分布特征及致贫因子

贫困问题实质上是发展问题,反映了地区发展的不平衡。运用GIS空间分析技术,对广东省2 277个省级贫困村空间分布特征及致贫因子进行分析,结果表明,广东省贫困村在空间分布形态上呈现明显的环珠三角集中分布,存在1个明显的集聚组团和3个集聚次中心,核心—边缘特征较为显著;在区域分布差异上,空间分布高度集中,粤北地区贫困村数量规模明显高于其他地区;在空间分布类型上呈典型的集聚分布特征,区域发展不平衡问题较为突出;在空间分布关联上,呈现粤东西北热、珠三角冷的空间关联特征。进一步分析发现,广东省贫困村整体致贫因子主要包括交通闭塞,路网密度较低;远离城镇,缺乏辐射带动;产业薄弱,经济水平较低;生态脆弱,生存环境恶劣等方面。     

经济集聚与区域协调

经济活动的空间集聚是各国经济发展过程中的普遍现象。大量理论和实证研究表明,经济集聚可以促进经济增长获得动态效率,有利于一国经济的长期繁荣。通过国际比较发现,中国各行业的空间集中程度不高,城市规模普遍偏小且"均等化"现象明显,因而从政策上限制经济活动的空间集聚是没有必要的。改革开放以来,中国地区差距的持续扩大不应归咎于经济活动的空间集聚,一些制度性的障碍应该在更大程度上为中国持续扩大的地区差距负责。因此,中国实现区域协调发展的重点不应是控制经济集聚以达到总量意义上的地区平衡,而应把重心放在推进产品和要素市场的一体化、完善落后地区的教育和医疗制度等方面,以实现人均意义上的地区平衡。     

中国地区就业增长的集聚效应:理论构建与实证检验北大核心CSSCISSCI

基于就业供需和地区基本特征,结合外部性和新经济增长理论,建立了包含本地效应、邻近效应、滞后效应、结构效应和溢出效应的地区就业集聚经济效应的综合分析框架及计量模型,采用面板IV-GMM探讨了2004-2014年中国283个地级及以上城市多维集聚效应对地区就业增长的作用机制。研究发现,本地效应和邻近效应共同决定了本地外部性规模;多样化产业结构效应和恶化的就业基础环境抑制了地区就业增长,而高质化人力资本和完善的就业公共服务则促进了地区就业增长;显著的滞后效应表明空间目标和区域协调促进了就业增长政策的效用最大化。     

规模递增、技术进步与西部民族地区旅游经济增长

转变旅游经济增长方式,加大技术进步贡献率是西部民族地区旅游经济持续发展的重大问题。文章用OSL估计方法建立了样本区域旅游就业线性模型和索洛余值增长模型,研究发现：已有研究中基于经济规模不变的全要素生产率测算的前提假设与现实严重不符。现阶段西部民族地区旅游经济增长的资本要素与劳动要素弹性和为2．03,呈规模报酬递增,且资本、劳动和技术进步贡献差异明显,资本投入要素贡献度高达182％,劳动投入32％。平均广义技术进步贡献率极低仅为一11％,是典型的投资驱动型增长模式。最后为持续发展西部旅游经济,提出加强技术引进、制度创新及继续大量资本投入的旅游经济增长方式转型的建议。     

基于广义价值论的内生增长理论初探

增长理论是经济学的重要部分，关系到每一个人的福利和一个国家的地位。文章运用广义价值论研究经济增长问题，以分工为切入点，把分工产生的新增利益和该利益的公平分配统一起来，论述了递增性假设之外另一条增长的可能路径。主要结论如下：（1）基于比较优势的分工交换可以持续地产生比较利益即超过自给自足收益的净收益，这一收益不依赖于技术的递增或递减变化，具有普遍持久稳定性；（2）由分工交换产生的净收益构成原始积累的重要来源，既促进了生产规模和分工范围的扩大，又支持了研发和技术进步；（3）劳动生产力任何提高的效应都通过分工交换产生的比较利益加以放大，在一个分工交换系统中，行为主体提高比较优势产品和比较劣势产品的生产力分别具有正的和负的外部性；（4）基于广义价值论的内生经济增长体现了效率与公平的统一，一个好的制度是能够保证在交易中各方的比较利益率相等，掠夺性制度不仅直接损害经济增长，也不具备长期可持续性。     

基于柯布-道格拉斯生产函数的河南省经济增长影响要素分析

采用柯布-道格拉斯生产函数,基于河南省1989-2009年时间序列数据对河南省经济增长影响要素进行实证分析。研究结果表明：劳动力投入的产出弹性为1.422,资本投入的产出弹性为0.315,能源投入的产出弹性为0.218,三个弹性之和大于1,说明河南省的经济特征是规模报酬递增的,并且劳动力对经济增长的贡献程度要明显大于资本和能源对经济增长的贡献程度。     

Rethinking Economic Growth in a Globalizing World: An Economic Geography Lens*

Abstract: This paper argues that cumulative causation processes are fundamental to understanding growth and development. Such processes derive from spatially concentrated increasing returns to scale including thick market effects, knowledge spillovers, sectoral and urban clustering, and self‐reinforcing improvements in physical and social infrastructure. These sources of agglomeration have been extensively analyzed in the economic geography literature. They imply that spatial unevenness in economic activity and incomes is an equilibrium outcome. Growth tends to be ‘lumpy’, with some sectors in some countries growing fast while other countries lag. The policy challenge is to lift potential new centers of economic activity to the point where they can reap the productivity and investment climate advantages of increasing returns and cumulative causation.     

Environmental growth convergence among Chinese regions

Since the end of the 20th century, numerous studies have analyzed Chinese economic development to gauge whether China's rapid growth is sustainable. Most of these studies focused on assessing total factor productivity (TFP) in Chinese mainland provinces but suffered from methodological weaknesses by assuming constant returns to scale (CRS) for the production frontier and/or incorrectly modeling variables returns to scale (VRS) technology taking into account bad output such as carbon dioxide emissions. Our paper offers a right non-parametric programming framework based on weak disposability and VRS assumptions to estimate environmental growth convergence among Chinese regions characterized by size heterogeneity. We explicitly separate regional efficiency gaps into two components: The first studies the technical catching-up process on each one (technical effect), and the second reveals convergence or divergence in the combinations of input and output among regions (structural effect). Moreover, carbon shadow price levels for provinces can be derived through the dual version of our activity analysis framework. Our empirical work focuses on 30 Chinese regions from 1997 to 2010. The results emphasize that environmental growth convergence among regions has mainly relied on the structural effect. We find that the structural effect largely depends on the pollution cost convergence and not on the evolution of the relative prices of capital or labor. The carbon shadow price is increasing at an annual rate of 2.5% and was evaluated around 864 yuan per ton in 2010 in China while regional estimates show significant disparities at the beginning of the period.     

Factor Returns and Circular Causality

The presence of circular causality in a region through factor returns is studied in a general equilibrium model in which firms producing final products engage in oligopolistic competition. The intermediate input is produced by capital and labor with a constant returns to scale technology. If the degree of increasing returns in the production of final products is sufficiently high, the return to a factor can increase with the amount of this factor. Thus a higher amount of a factor in a region leads to a higher return to this factor and attracts additional amount of this factor to move in. Capital movement and labor movement can be reinforcing. This type of circular causality means that unbalanced regional development can persist over time.     

Measuring returns to scale in nineteenth-century French industry

Were nineteenth-century French firms too small? Previous research has found either constant returns to scale throughout (Nye, 1987) or increasing returns to scale for most industries (Sicsic, 1994). This research sheds some light on these contradictory results by proposing and estimating a series of models that consider previously ignored econometric issues. My analysis of the 1839-1847 census suggests that there were increasing returns to scale for some industries and constant returns for others, while the analysis of the 1861-1865 census suggests constant returns to scale throughout. Assessing the economic implications of the estimated returns to scale, I argue that there were significant unexploited scale economies in the first half of the nineteenth century. In the second half of the nineteenth century, though, France had little to gain from scale economies.     

SECTORAL ELASTICITY OF SUBSTITUTION AND RETURNS TO SCALE IN SOUTH AFRICA

Elasticity of substitution and returns to scale are estimated on a sectoral basis for South Africa using panel-based generalised least square procedure. Apart from sectoral differences in terms of elasticity of substitution, the study found that elasticity of substitution is below unity in all of the sectors. Most of the sectors studied are found to have increasing returns to scale in production. The study further explores the implications of elasticity of factor substitution and returns to scale on growth and employment creation. It is argued that a greater number of jobs can be created from growth of sectors with constant or decreasing returns to scale than from the same level of output growth generated by sectors with increasing returns to scale. This is the case when the employment-creating potential of the same amount of additional output is compared in all the sectors examined. By virtue of scale economies, a sector like finance, insurance, real estate and business services generates more output with less proportional increase in inputs, which means growth in this sector may not have the desired impact on job creation. However, given the sector's large share (20%) of the country's total output and employment, it may generate more jobs, even if sectors like utilities and construction experience the same level of output growth. Given its importance for growth and employment, the study recommends further investigation into the reasons why elasticity of substitution is lower in sectors like utilities, mining and trade, catering and accommodation services.     

Does inflation matter for growth?

The interaction between inflation and economic growth is studied within a simple model incorporating money and finance into an optimal growth framework with constant returns to capital. The model includes the potential impact of inflation on growth, via (a) saving and real interest rates, (b) velocity and financial development, (c) the government budget deficit through the inflation tax and tax erosion, and (d) efficiency in production through the wedge between the returns to real and financial capital. The hypothesized effect of inflation on long-run growth through these channels is estimated by applying the random-effects panel model to two sets of unbalanced panel data side by side, from the Penn World Tables and from the World Bank, covering 170 countries from 1960 to 1992. The cross-country links between inflation and growth are economically and statistically significant and robust. Specifically, the results show that inflation in excess of 10–20 percent per year is generally detrimental to growth.     

基于DEA的综合交通运输协调发展评价研究——以河北省为例

结合经济计量分析特点,运用数据包络分析的投入产出思想,结合协调发展理论提出了基于EDA模型的经济数据的分析方法。据此对河北省2000-2010年交通运输与经济统计数据进行了实证分析,从而对河北省综合交通系统的协调性进行分析。结果表明河北省铁路运输效率逐年提高,规模收益都是递增的;公路运输效率达到最佳,规模收益稳定;水路运输系统的投入结构不合理,效率偏低。通过这些分析,对河北省综合交通运输方式的发展做出评价,为有效解决综合交通与经济协调发展提供理论依据和决策参考。     

非均衡产业结构下的就业增长率

在刚性的就业体制废除以后,就业增长率一直处于低位徘徊。经济增长与就业增长呈现出较强的非一致性,这种现象与我国非均衡的产业结构密不可分。从非均衡的产业结构变动特点出发,分析非均衡的产业结构的变动对就业增长率的影响,有利于妥善处理好产业结构与就业增长率的关系,从而提高就业增长率。     

前沿经济理论视野下的数据要素研究进展

数字经济蓬勃发展，数据要素逐渐成为学术和政策讨论的重要议题。数据要素在要素特性、市场化机制、经济价值等方面相对传统生产要素有较大差异，对其研究亟待创新建模思路。经济学理论已经积累不少相关文献。文章着眼于数据要素的特性、市场化机制和经济价值，系统梳理了国内外相关文献，从前沿经济理论文献对数据要素的建模思路入手，进行了全面的总结和分析。首先，从隐私外部性和要素报酬两个角度入手梳理了前沿文献对于数据要素特性的探讨；其次，从数据要素的产权归属和交易机制设计两个层面梳理数据要素市场化相关文献；再次，总结文献中关于数据要素的经济价值和实证评估的研究；最后，列举应用前沿理论研究数据要素的方法创新方向，展望应用经济学理论研究中国数据要素实际问题的潜在思路。文章可为数据要素市场化的理论和政策研究提供一定的理论参考。