Aging labor,ICT capital,and productivity in Japan and Korea

This study examines how aging affects labor productivity using industry-level data of Japan and Korea. The analysis shows that, for both Japan and Korea, aging has positive effects on labor productivity when older workers are working in industries with a large share of information and communication technology (ICT) in the capital stock. We also find that, on average, older workers exert positive effects on labor productivity across all industries when they are low-educated in Japan and high-educated in Korea. In addition, a complementary effect between ICT capital and older workers is observed for both high- and low-educated workers in Japan but only for low-educated workers in Korea. The complementarity between ICT and old workers existed in both manufacturing and services industries of Korea and Japan.     

Depression dynamics: a new estimate of the Anglo‐American manufacturing productivity gap in the interwar period1

During the interwar period the manufacturing productivity gap between the US and the UK became much larger than existing estimates suggest. In this article a new comparison of US/UK productivity levels for 1935 is presented, utilizing a more rigorous methodology to revise the widely used, but methodologically outdated, benchmark comparison by Rostas that was published in 1948. Secondly, the comparison is extended to take account of variations in input prices, and it is shown that double deflation has a substantial effect on the new benchmark, particularly at the industry level. Thirdly, labour input is adjusted for actual hours worked. US manufacturing displayed a much higher level of comparative productivity for the key industries of the second industrial revolution, such as chemicals and engineering. These results support revisionist accounts of the depression's strengthening of US productivity leadership.     

Real Output and Labour Productivity in Indonesian Manufacturing, 1975–90

This article presents estimates of purchasing power parities, real output and labour productivity in medium and large scale manufacturing in a binary comparison between Indonesia and the USA in the benchmark year 1987, It applies an industry of origin approach, comparing product unit values from the censuses of both countries. The 1987 PPP for manufacturing was Rp 1,200/$. Gross value added per person employed in 1987 was 10% of that in the USA. With the use of national time series, the 1987 benchmark was extrapolated backwards and forwards to derive productivity comparisons for the years 1975–90 in 15 branches of manufacturing. 1975–80 was a period of catch-up, with labour productivity increasing from 7.7 to 10.6% of the US level. Between 1980 and 1990 catch-up stagnated: relative productivity remained unchanged despite considerable productivity growth in Indonesia, Comparisons with other Asian economies show that labour productivity in Indonesia was somewhat higher than in India, but was still lower in 1990 than that of South Korea in 1970.     

Asia's ‘little divergence’ in the twentieth century: evidence from PPP-based direct estimates of GDP per capita, 1913–69

This article uses expenditure-based purchasing power parities (PPPs) to estimate GDP per capita in comparable prices for 12 Asian countries for six benchmark years during the period 1913–69. The article finds that in 1913 levels of real GDP per capita in several countries were comparable to those in Japan. GDP per capita in Japan and other Asian countries diverged during and after the First World War. The article questions whether Asia's ‘little divergence’ between Japan and other Asian countries dates back to the late eighteenth century. It draws attention to the different resource endowments of Japan, China, and India compared to other Asian countries, and their implications for the development trajectories of Asian countries. The article demonstrates that using historical PPP estimates yields estimates of GDP per capita that diverge from those based on retropolations of the single 1990 PPP-converted benchmark year. It concludes that historical estimates of PPPs are needed to confirm analyses of comparative economic performance based on available GDP per capita data.     

我国创意产业中的国际分工研究——基于典型发达国家和发展中国家的比较分析

本文分析我国创意产业中的国际分工,并与典型的发达国家和发展中国家进行对比.结果发现,我国创意产业的出口贸易总额及比重占据世界第一,远远超过了所研究的主要发达国家和发展中国家;我国创意商品贸易的比较优势与国际竞争力也远远领先于其他发达国家和发展中国家;但是,更进一步的分析揭示我国创意商品的出口主要集中于劳动密集型、低创意...     

Manufacturing productivity in China and India: The role of institutional changes

In this paper we undertake a comparative study of productivity in the manufacturing sector for China and India using data from survey of manufacturing industries for the two countries. We find that productivity of manufacturing industries in China relative to that in India improved substantially over the 1998–2003 period. Specifically, the average total factor productivity (TFP) growth for the manufacturing sector over this period was about 11% higher in China than in India. We document two substantial changes in government policies in China that were not witnessed in India. First, the late 1990s saw an enormous wave of ownership restructuring due to the formal endorsement of private property rights by the Chinese central government. Second, in 1997 a large scale labour retrenchment program was launched to address the long standing problem of labour redundancy in the public sector. Using data from the Chinese survey of manufacturing industries, we quantify the impact of these large scale institutional changes on TFP of Chinese manufacturing industries. We find that these policy changes can explain about 30% of the growth in TFP of manufacturing industries. Hence we conclude that these institutional changes in China can account for a significant part of the gains in productivity of manufacturing industries in China relative to that in India over the 1998–2003 period.     

中国制造业竞争优势与产业结构的转型升级研究

文章结合汇总数据和制造业规模以上企业微观数据,全面测算了中国制造业在面临工人工资上涨冲击时,其单位劳动力成本的变化。发现在2004年之前,总体上看劳动力生产率的提高化解了工资的上涨,单位劳动力成本始终下降。而在2004年后,非劳动密集型产业和劳动密集型产业的轨迹开始分化,劳动密集型产业单位劳动力成本开始上升,而非劳动密集型产业单位劳动力成本依然下降。因此,中国制造业未来的竞争优势需依靠产业结构的转型和升级来带动。     

Indonesian Manufacturing Sector Output and Productivity: An Australian Comparative Perspective, 1975–90

This paper provides industry-of-origin comparative estimates of real output and labour productivity in the Indonesian and Australian manufacturing sectors. It makes binary comparisons for the benchmark year 1987, and extrapolates the 1987 benchmark backward and forward using national time series, to derive comparisons for the years 1975–90. Expressed in ‘purchasing power parities’ (PPPs), the gross value of output and value added in Indonesian manufacturing in 1987 was 40% and 34% of the respective Australian levels. In 1987 the Indonesian manufacturing price level was 74% of the Australian level, and Indonesian manufacturing labour productivity was 16% of that in Australia. 1975 to 1990 was a period of catch-up. The Indonesian manufacturing price level declined from 105% to 60% of the Australian level, while labour productivity increased from 12% to 17% of the Australian level. The catch-up was greater from the early 1980s onwards.     

中国与墨西哥加工贸易比较分析

中国自加入WTO后在美国市场进口品的占有率方面和一些产业的竞争力上已经超过了墨西哥,但中国整体出口产品价格低于墨西哥同类产品,预示着中国出口产业包括品质在内的整体竞争力略逊于墨西哥。另外,在汽车等相关产业的竞争力方面仍然无法与墨西哥抗衡。随着中国劳动力价格的逐步上涨和人民币升值等情况的出现,中国加工贸易必须进行转型升级,否则有可能在这方面被墨西哥等国家所取代。     

劳动力供给、生产率与外商直接投资工资外溢效应

本文利用中国1999-2007年441个四位码工业行业数据,考察外商直接投资在产业内部和产业之间,通过直接影响劳动力市场供给方式和间接生产率外溢方式对中国内资行业的工资外溢效应。研究结果表明:(1)外商直接投资(FDI)通过直接和间接方式对中国内资行业工资在产业内部和产业之间都产生了显著的正向外溢效应;(2)国有行业比重提高会显著促进FDI通过劳动力供给方式对内资行业产生工资外溢效应,但同样会显著阻碍FDI通过间接的生产率外溢方式对内资行业产生工资外溢效应;(3)FDI对内资劳动密集型行业的工资外溢效应显著高于资本密集型行业,FDI进入显著缩小了中国不同劳动生产率工业部门的工资收入差距。     

中国仅仅是制造大国吗——基于出口增加值测算角度

文章从出口增加值测算角度,对1995-2011年中国出口中的制造和服务含量进行分析。结果表明:（1）中国服务出口总值基本赶上甚至一度超越了制造出口总值,中国同样也是"服务大国",其中由制造业间接出口的服务含量超过了由服务业直接出口的服务含量;（2）中国服务出口的国内增值能力弱于制造出口,日本、韩国、美国、中国台湾、德国等发达国家或地区是中国出口价值的主要外部来源地,中国本土的制造和服务在全球化分工中需要实现自我提升;（3）中国产品在主要进口市场所占份额整体上呈现出上升趋势,相比国际服务市场,中国产品在国际制造市场上拥有更大的覆盖面和影响力。文章的研究为制造和服务产业融合发展提供了新的理论和数据支撑。     

中日韩文化创意产品贸易竞争关系的实证分析

中日韩三国在内部市场和国际市场上的创意产品贸易竞争性较强,这对于扩大中国创意产品出口有借鉴意义。     

How does intermediate consumption affect GVC positions? - A comparison between China and US

Using the data of the World Input and Output Table (WIOD) from 2000 to 2014, this paper measures the positions of China and the US in the global value chains (GVCs). We develop a new dual structural decomposition method to analyze the drivers behind the GVC position differences between the two countries from the perspective of intermediate consumption. The results show that (1) China is moving away from both end-users and primary factors, while the U.S. is moving towards both ends of the GVCs. The gap between China and the US in GVCs is widening. (2) About 40% of the difference between the GVC positions of China and the US can be attributed to the difference in industrial structures between the two countries, and the remaining 60% is related to the difference in the GVC positions of the same industries between the two countries. (3) China's three major industries are all embedded in a further GVC position from households, governments, and investors (HGIs) than the US, but they are formed for completely different reasons. The domestic direct effect is the main reason for the resource industry, the multiplier effect is the main driver for the manufacturing industry, and the domestic linkage effect is the main factor for the service industry. (4) The different roles of the two countries in the international division of labor result in the difference in the two countries' consumption coefficients of the manufacturing and service sectors, and the asymmetric interaction between industries ultimately leads to the differentiation in the GVC positions of the industries between the two countries.     

地方化经济、城市化经济与劳动生产率——基于中国制造业四位数行业的实证研究

本文基于2003年中国四位数行业制造业数据,实证分析了产业外部性的两种重要形式——地方化经济和城市化经济对劳动生产率的影响。我们发现,从整个制造业来讲,地方化经济和城市化经济都促进了劳动生产率的提高。同时,我们就地方化经济和城市化经济是否存在产业间的差异进行了实证分析,发现地方化经济在大部分产业都发挥显著的促进作用,而仅有少数技术含量相对高的产业支持城市化经济。     

Agricultural Productivity and Economic Growth: Role of Tax Revenues and Infrastructures

To encourage economic growth in a developing economy, higher agricultural productivity has been believed to enhance the manufacturing sector's development, which provides the transition into industrialization. Although this positive linkage between agricultural productivity and economic growth has been judged to be incorrect, based upon the comparative advantage argument in a model of small-open economies by Matsuyama (1992), this article revisits the linkage by extending Matsuyama's model by introducing the revenue-generating effect, which is missing in his model. As agriculture is an important source of taxation in an early stage of economic development, higher agricultural productivity generates more tax revenues and facilitates spending on infrastructure. By introducing government taxation and infrastructure expenditure, we show that under proper conditions, higher agricultural productivity creates a positive growth effect via the revenue generation that dominates the negative growth effect through the comparative advantage. Moreover, introducing infrastructure expenditure may shift the manufacturing sector's original comparative disadvantage into comparative advantage, thereby enabling a trapped economy to take off and eventually industrialize. From the early stages of economic development in Japan, Taiwan, and Korea, we can quantitatively assess an obvious net positive effect of agricultural productivity upon labor allocation and economic growth.     

增加值视角下金砖国家制造业的贸易利得与竞争力研究

基于贸易增加值核算的基本原理,对金砖五国制造业出口增加值进行分解,同时利用标准显示性竞争指数测算金砖国家制造业竞争力,研究发现：中国的贸易利得与庞大的出口总额严重不匹配,其他金砖四国的贸易利得远远高于中国;对中国、巴西和印度而言,基于国内增加值测算的NRCA值要高于基于出口总额测算的NRCA值,而俄罗斯和南非恰恰相反;金砖五国在低技术制造业上表现出各自的竞争优势,除了中国在电子通信和光学设备制造业及机械制造业有相对的竞争优势外,金砖五国整体上在高技术产业层面与美日德等发达国家存在较大差距。应从培育高级要素、产能合作、共建科技创新体系等方面来提高金砖国家制造业竞争力。     

The Linkage between Prices,Wages, and Labor Productivity: A Panel Study of Manufacturing Industries

This article investigates the long-run relationship between prices and wage-adjusted productivity as well as between real wages and average labor productivity at the industry level for a panel of 459 U.S. manufacturing industries over the period 1956-1996. Panel reintegration test results strongly reject the null of no reintegration in the panel between both prices and wage-adjusted productivity and between labor productivity and real wages for many (but not all) industries. Granger-causality tests show that prices are weakly exogenous and cause movements in unit labor cost. Bidirectional Granger causality is found between real wages and productivity; however, a one-to-one relationship is strongly rejected between real wages and productivity. Increases in labor productivity are associated with a less than unity increase in real wages.     

比较优势动态转换与产业升级——基于中国制造业发展指标的国际比较

通过对国内外比较优势与产业升级理论的梳理,创新性地将其概括为比较优势动态转换的三条途径与产业升级的四个维度,并将二者结合起来,构建中国制造业比较优势动态转换与产业升级的理论框架,对中国制造业发展指标进行国际比较研究,得到如下结论:从垂直结构升级考察,中国制造业呈现全方位崛起的态势,完成了从低端产业向高端产业的升级;从水平结构升级考察,依据进口中间品国内配套增值率指数测算,中国制造业国内集成配套能力较强,但依据进出口中间品增值率指数测算,中国制造业在全球价值链中分工地位较低;从产业效率考察,中国制造业技术效率世界领先;而全要素生产率及其分解显示,中国制造业技术进步水平还存在较大的差距;从产业效益考察,中国制造业增加值率低下,但作为增加值构成要素的税收占比很高,中国制造业出口占总产值比重在世界排序较低,中国内需市场潜力巨大。     

Specialization, outsourcing and wages

This paper studies the impact of outsourcing on individual wages. In contrast to the standard approach in the literature, we focus on domestic outsourcing as well as foreign outsourcing. We argue that if outsourcing is associated with specialization gains arising from an increase in the division of labor, domestic outsourcing tends to increase wages for both unskilled and skilled labor. We use a panel data set of workers in Danish manufacturing industries to show that domestic and foreign outsourcing affect wages as predicted.      

Deindustrialization and changes in manufacturing trade: Factor content calculations for 1978–1995

Input-output analysis is used to estimate the labor content embodied in changes in manufacturing output resulting from changing patterns of manufacturing trade. For ten OECD countries from the late 1970s to the mid-1990s, changes in world trade of manufactures are estimated to have had a negative net effect on manufacturing employment of 3.5 million jobs, 2.0 million in the US alone, compared to a 6.2 million decline in actual manufacturing employment. The employment losses resulted mainly from North-South trade. At the industry level, there were large losses in labor-intensive industries and in industries that were strategically targeted by developing country industrial policies. There were employment losses in nearly all manufacturing industries, not a mixture of winners and losers. Such a pattern may result not from surging imports from the South but rather declining exports to the South in the aftermath of the 1980s debt crisis. JEL no. F14, F16, O24