Dynamics of the energy intensity of the Russian economy in 2006–2007 and projections of the energy consumption

This paper is devoted to the analysis of the energy intensity in the sequential chain of hierarchically interconnected levels of the Russian Federation’s economy in 2006–2007, i.e., GDP segments of the economy’s technological processes sectors. In terms of the energy consumption projection, 2006 and 2007 present an extremely interesting example of the changing impulsive character of the growth of the demand for electric energy under intensively growing domestic and foreign demand for products of energy intensive sectors of the Russian Federation. The year of 2006 demonstrated a high growth of the per unit GDP and a very high growth of energy consumption under fast growing internal and external demand for energy intensive products; the year of 2007 showed a still higher growth of the GDP at a sharply curtailed growth of the energy consumption, and the rate of decline of the GDP energy intensity almost doubled. The comparative analysis of 2006 and 2007 can help one to understand what can underlie the changed energy consumption in the country in the period of the world crisis and after its end.     

Long-term development of the Russian economy and the problem of labour productivity

This paper analyzes the limitations imposed by the development of the Russian economy on human resources. The contribution of productivity to economic growth in recent years is determined. The key factors affecting the productivity of labor in the Russian economy are revealed. The possible dynamics of production in high-tech sectors under the impact of restrictions on labor resources is reviewed.     

Structural and investment policy as an instrument for modernizing the Russian economy

The article considers the current situation of the structural and technological imbalance in the Russian economy, as well as the nonproportional distribution of the factors of production and financial resources. The need for structural reforms in industrial production and income generation has been shown. The author discusses priorities of structural and investment policy, direction of new technological breakthrough in the long-term national strategy of entering international technological space. Special features of development of key economic sectors have been analyzed. In conclusion, quantitative estimates of economic dynamics in the long term up to 2035 have been given, which are predetermined by implementation of planned measures of structural and investment policy that provides potential for GDP growth until 2035 at a rate of no less than 3.5% on average per year.     

On the role of the fuel-and-energy complex in the Russian economy

The role of the fuel-and-energy complex (FEC) in the Russian economy has been described and A quantitative assessment of the impact of key parameters of the fuel-and-energy complex sectors on the volume and dynamics of the main macroeconomic indicators has been provided. In particular, the sensitivity of the GDP growth to changes in energy exports has been analyzed.     

Recovery of economic growth in Russia

The presented paper of the Institute of Economic Forecasting of the Russian Academy of Sciences analyzes key macroeconomic and financial measures of contemporary Russian anticrisis policy, substantiates the main directions of growth recovery in the basic sectors of the economy and social sphere in the medium and long term, and considers the features of the regional economic growth recovery policy.     

Forecast of the basic trends of economic development in Bryansk oblast

This article has analyzed the development of different economic sectors in Bryansk oblast, which indicates that the region has been most significantly affected by the geopolitical crisis compared to the other subjects of the Russian Federation. In particular, this is due to the fact that its transit value has sharply decreased, there are no innovative succinct projects in industry, and the successful development of agriculture cannot serve as an important driver for developing the region. The growing gap in the wage level us provoking the migration of the working-age population of the oblast and reduces its role in Russian economy to food and labor supplies for Moscow and St. Petersburg.     

Prospects of Economic Development in Russia

An overview has been given of the key themes that define the socioeconomic development of Russia today. Different aspects of today’s Russian economic policy have been analyzed and its shortcomings have been determined. The potential for economic growth has been assessed. Issues associated with financing the economy and interest rates on loans have been discussed. The role of high technologies and digitization in the economy has been reviewed. Proposals have been formulated for renewing national economic policy.     

Analysis of tendencies in regional and sectoral structure of economy of subjects of the Russian Federation

The paper is devoted to the formation of the database on the principal sectors of the economy of the subjects (regions) of the Russian Federation needed to construct well-coordinated forecast scenarios of economic growth. The major tendencies in changes of the regional-sectoral structure of the economy are analyzed.     

Role of instrumental methods of analysis and forecasting for substantiating economic policy

The models that are becoming the most widespread in the modern Russian economy, which are used for the practical substantiation of measures in the sphere of economic policy, have been analyzed in the paper. The key aspects related to the quality characteristics of the practical models have been defined. The gap between statistical data-collection methods has been stated, as well as the theoretical and methodical bases of some model structures. The place of the economic models has been represented in the course of discussion on the prospects of economic development.     

Effect of the ruble exchange rate on Russia’s economic activity

In this paper, we present and analyze our estimates of the effect of changes in the real ruble exchange rate on economic growth in Russia and on the output in various sectors of the Russian economy and provide a review of domestic and foreign studies investigating these indicators.     

Metal demand and consumption in Russia

The metal need formation mechanism is determined by the development of reproduction processes. This article assesses the active mechanism of meeting the Russian economy’s need for metalline products. Analyses have shown that the export-oriented development of production processes in resource supplying sectors of the economy promoted the formation of an import-oriented investment model. Current developments contain an economic growth crisis potential due to an accruing economic imbalance.     

结构差异、增长质量与经济周期波动的关联度

改革开放以来,需求结构中消费率的不断下降、所有制结构中国有制经济成分在国民经济中比重的持续降低以及产业结构中第二产业增加值占GDP比重的相对稳定,构成了我国经济周期波动的主要来源。在它们的共同作用下,我国经济周期波动性不断减弱,经济增长质量明显提高。针对经济结构变动中存在的影响以及经济周期波动性的因素,应相应降低经济周期波动的风险。     

A theoretical model of the relationship between value added elements and end product

This paper focuses on the development of a theoretical scheme describing the transformation of primary incomes into end consumption and savings in the Russian economy. This scheme is basically a system of interrelated tables reflecting the distribution of primary incomes across the institutional sectors and their further reallocation and use. The scheme makes allowances for the specific features of the Russian economy and existing statistics. In terms of methodology, it is coordinated with the interindustry balance in current buyer prices and, from the theoretical standpoint, describes the connection between Quadrant II and Quadrant III of the balance. Therefore, the proposed system of tables is treated in the paper as Quadrant IV of the interindustry balance. The theoretical scheme is used by the authors as a necessary basis for constructing an empirical model of the relationship between value added and end product, which will be published in the next issue of this journal.     

四川省能源强度影响因素分析

为降低四川省能源强度,对影响能源强度的因素采用了向量自回归模型等方法进行了研究。结果表明：长期来看,能源消费结构、产业结构等对能源强度表现为正影响,工业化水平等对能源强度表现为负影响,短期来看,产业结构的变动对能源强度的影响变化较大,剩下依次为能源消费结构、经济发展、工业化水平、贸易依存度。综上可得出建议,为降低能源强度,需优化产业结构,降低煤炭消费比重,重视开发新能源,淘汰落后工业产业。     

论日本的循环型经济社会发展模式

循环型经济是一种与环境和谐的经济发展模式，是未来经济发展的必由之路。日本面对国内外形势的变化，在总结自身经验教训的基础上，为实现经济社会的可持续发展，提出了建设循环型社会的目标，并从20世纪90年代起围绕建设循环型经济社会的目标，逐步地从法制建设、技术手段、经济结构和社会观念等各个方面进行了有益的实践。     

Financial crisis and restructuring in Thailand

The financial crisis has substantially damaged the Thai economy. Dealing with the economic recovery is not a simple task. Both banking and corporate sectors must be restructured simultaneously. Therefore, the Thai government has implemented its restructuring program in both banking sector and corporate sectors. Besides, expansionary fiscal policy has been implemented as well. Although significant progress has achieved in financial restructuring, much remains to be done to take the Thai economy out of the recession, as there are a number of structural weaknesses.     

Analyzing the impact of the natural resources factor on the level of economic development of Russian regions

The paper estimates the role of the natural factor in today’s Russian economy with the help of different statistical methods. The intensity of the use of the natural resource factor is investigated through the indices of development of main primary industries in the economy of the country as a whole and its regions. The grouping of all the constituent entities of the Federation into seven clusters according to a series of economic indicators permitted to isolate a group of regions corresponding to the sustainable development concept.     

Forecasting the Economic Need for Personnel with Higher Scientific Qualifications

This paper has presented methodology for assessing the economic need for personnel with higher scientific qualifications and the mechanisms for regulating the process of its reproduction. Approaches to forecasting the dynamics of personnel of higher scientific qualifications that take into account the provision of additional annual need for Candidates and Doctors of Sciences in scientific, educational, and knowledge-intensive sectors of the economy, as well as the experience of countries with effective market economies, have been considered. Based on the developed methodology, quantitative indicators of the annual additional need for Candidates and Doctors of Sciences for different sectors of the economy have been calculated.     

The Green Factor of Economic Growth in Russia and the World

The article discusses the role of environmental and climate factors in the modernization of the global and Russian economies in the context of the challenges presented by the new industrial revolution. It is emphasized that a restraining effect of these factors on economic growth is primarily caused by qualitative characteristics of technologies used for resource utilization and the adaptation of population and facilities to global climate changes. The article considers a growing urgency of eco-innovations, as well as “green” technologies overall, as a factor affecting the economic growth and modernization of the economy; the unevenness of the development of these technologies in the countries of the world; and strategic risks of Russia’s lagging behind the leading world economies in this area. A special emphasis is placed upon (i) a substantiation of the significance of the mineral, raw material and fuel and energy complexes, as well as the forest-industryl and agro-industrial complex, as priority sectors for the development eco-innovations and green technologies in Russia and (ii) arguing that in Russian conditions a long-term development policy is in essence a strategy for green economic growth.     

The hit of the novel coronavirus outbreak to China's economy

Broke out at the end of 2019, the novel coronavirus pneumonia (COVID-19) has been spreading throughout the world, leading to more than 87 million confirmed infections and 1.88 million fatalities. Motivated by this, we evaluate the economic impacts of COVID-19 outbreak on both national and industrial levels by employing quarterly computable general equilibrium (CGE) model. Our results reveal that the epidemic may lower China's economic growth in 2020 by 3.5%, versus 4.4% for final consumption (relative to baseline). The service industry suffers the most from the outbreak, and the Accommodation-Food-Beverage service, Wholesale-Retail Trade, and Transport-Storage-Post are identified as the most vulnerable sectors, with the negative impact on output reaching as high as 14.6%. When moving to 2021, the hit to economy shrinks to 2% (1.2–2.7%), with industry estimated to be the most affected sector instead. This study indicates that implementing effective measures for preventing and controlling the epidemic and policies for post-disease economic recovery play critical role in curbing the potential economic damage.