Worker turnover and job reallocation: the role of fixed-term contracts

This paper analyses the role of fixed-term contracts in bringingabout simultaneous worker flows and worker and job turnoverin Spain. After exploring the issue that hirings (separations)are not restricted to growing (declining) establishments andthat most firms are simultaneously engaged in hiring and separatingworkers, the extent of total worker turnover and its componentsis computed by contractual status. The findings are that workerand job turnover is higher for temporary employment and thatfixed-term contracts are used mainly for rotation purposes (althoughthey also account for the majority of job creation and destruction).     

Why Do Recent Graduates Enter into Flexible Jobs?

Flexible jobs make up a larger share of the Dutch labour market than in almost any other Western country. Recent graduates in the Netherlands are particularly likely to take flexible jobs. In this study we examine why recent graduates enter into temporary contracts and whether flexible jobs offer a poorer match for graduates’ qualifications than permanent jobs. We find that recent graduates that enter into flexible jobs face large wage penalties, a worse job match and less training participation than graduates who take permanent jobs, even after correcting for differences in ability. When the labour market situation for a particular field of education deteriorates, more recent graduates are forced into flexible jobs, threatening their position on the labour market in the long run. Flexible work among recent graduates is unrelated to their willingness to take risks. Only for university graduates is there any indication that flexible jobs may provide a stepping stone to permanent employment.     

Flexible Contracts and Human Capital Investments

As suggested by human capital theory, workers with flexible contracts participate less often in training than those with permanent contracts. We find that this is merely due to the fact that flexworkers receive less employer-funded training, a gap they can only partly compensate for by their own training investments. Flexworkers particularly participate less in firm-specific training that is meant to keep up with new skill demands than workers with permanent contracts. However, for those who participate in employer-funded firm-specific training, a temporary contract appears to facilitate the transition to a permanent contract with the same employer. However, this does not hold for participation in self-paid training. This training, which is usually general training, does not help in finding a better job.     

以马克思经济危机理论解读当前的金融经济危机

马克思经济危机理论阐明了生产过剩经济危机是资本主义制度所特有的经济现象,是资本主义历史存在暂时性的确定证明,它将随着经济实践的发展而不断发展。马克思经济危机理论对目前正在发生的金融经济危机仍具有指导作用。     

Adjustment Mechanisms in a Currency Area

Both the euro-area and the United States suffered an initially quite similar housing and financial shock in 2007/8, with several states in both regions being particularly badly affected. Yet there was never any question that the worst hit US states would need a special bail-out or leave the dollar area, whereas such concerns have worsened in the euro-area. We focus on three badly affected states, Arizona, Spain and Latvia, to examine the working of relative adjustment mechanisms within the currency region. We concentrate on four such mechanisms, relative wage adjustment, migration, net fiscal flows and bank flows. Only in Latvia was there any relative wage adjustment. Intra-EU migration has increased, but is more costly for those involved in the EU (than in the USA). Net federal financing helped Arizona and Latvia in the crisis, but not Spain. The locally focussed structure of banking amplified the crisis in Spain, whereas the role of out-of-state banks eased adjustment in Arizona and Latvia. The latter reinforces the case for an EU banking union.     

Explaining Foreign Holdings of Asia's Debt Securities: The Feldstein–Horioka Paradox Revisited*

In this paper, we find that home bias is still present in all economies and regions, especially in the case of short‐term debt securities, but that there are substantial variations among economies and regions in the strength of home bias, with the eurozone economies, the USA and developing Asia showing relatively weak home bias and advanced Asia, especially Japan, showing relatively strong home bias. We then examine trends over time in foreign holdings of debt securities and find that capital has been flowing from the USA and the eurozone economies to both advanced Asia (especially Japan) and developing Asia, and that foreign holdings of debt securities have been increasing in advanced as well as developing Asia but for different reasons. The main reason in the case of advanced Asia (especially Japan) appears to be higher risk‐adjusted returns, whereas the main reason in the case of developing Asia appears to be the growth of debt securities markets combined with relatively weak home bias and (in the case of short‐term securities) lower exchange rate volatility. Finally, we find that since the global financial crisis, foreign holdings of debt securities have declined (i.e. that home bias has strengthened) in all economies and regions except developing Asia, where they have increased (except for a temporary decline in 2008) but where their share is still much lower than the optimal share warranted by the capital asset pricing market model.     

New deal or no deal in the Cotton South: The effect of the AAA on the agricultural labor structure

The Agricultural Adjustment Act has often been held responsible for the rapid reduction of share tenants and sharecroppers (laborers paid shares of the crop) during the 1930s. However, this conclusion has come with limited empirical backing. We shed new light on the consequences of this New Deal policy by empirically testing the role that the AAA cotton reduction program had on the displacement of share tenants and sharecroppers in the Cotton South. The results suggest that the AAA played a significant role in the displacement of black and white sharecroppers and black managing tenants even though it was a violation of AAA contracts for landlords to displace these workers.     

对经济危机和市场失灵理论的辨析、联系及应用

面对日益蔓延加深的全球经济危机,各国政府采取了各种救市措施,然而效果并不明显,原因在于宏观调控的理论并不完备。本文以对马克思的经济危机论和西方经济学的市场失灵理论的辨析为基础,提出了"贯通两大理论之间的联系,探索标本兼治的政府干预措施,积极应用于治理经济危机的实践中"等观点。     

Shakeout in the early commercial airframe industry

The commercial airframe industry in the US experienced a shakeout from the early 1930s into the post‐Second World War period. Unlike shakeouts in automobiles, tyres, or televisions, the commercial airframe industry's early life cycle was affected by external factors, particularly government demand. Using newly digitized data on all planes introduced in the commercial market between 1926 and 1965, we find that commercial airframe manufacturers with bomber contracts during the Second World War were more likely to have postwar market share than firms without such contracts, controlling for plane characteristics and other forms of government contracting. We attribute the effect of bomber contracts to advantages in R&D learning capacity acquired by firms with military airframe contracts. Despite low (or zero) initial presence in the commercial market, these learning capacity advantages allowed such firms to survive the early period of the shakeout, and later to thrive.     

Fixed-Term Contracts and Labor Market Duality in France

The French labor market is segmented between permanent and temporary workers. The second category has difficulty in getting an open-ended contract. This paper aims at depicting workers on short-term contracts and shows the consequences on their professional career are negative and significant. A large part of the wage gap between permanent and temporary workers remains unexplained by observable characteristics. They receive less on-the-job training and their likelihood of obtaining a stable job is lower than 30% after 1 year and a half. They have also a higher probability of being the adjustment variable in case of an economic negative shock. These different findings show the importance of using public policies to encourage transitions from fixed-term to permanent employment and reducing labor-market duality.     

The dollar in the turmoil

We study the impact of the global financial crisis on the equilibrium exchange rate of the US dollar. We first simulate the impact of the crisis on the US net foreign asset position. Then, we calculate the equilibrium value of the dollar according both to a BEER and to a FEER approach. We find the case for a strong, although temporary, depreciation of the dollar even more acute than before the crisis. This suggests that the strength of the dollar in late 2008 and early 2009 may be short-lived.     

Taxation in the Tanzanian gold sector: Overview of impacts and possible solutions

This paper analyses the factors that reduce the gold sector's contribution to the Tanzanian government's revenue. Tanzania is among Africa's largest gold exporters. Yet ordinary Tanzanians have seen little benefit from this. This is partly because the government has enacted tax laws that are, as we shall see, overly favourable to multinational mining companies, and partly because of the same companies' business practices. Critics argue that the government fails to capture a substantial amount of state revenue as a result of low royalty rates, unpaid corporate taxes and tax evasion by major gold mine operators. This paper argues that the Tanzanian government should try to increase its share of revenues by taxation based on revenues, increasing its auditing skills and its involvement in mining, as well as by increasing the transparency of contracts and limiting the discretionary power of policy-makers in negotiating contracts.     

Three Perspectives on the Dutch Growth of Flexible Employment

The growth in flexible work arrangements has been more pronounced in the Netherlands than in most other western economies. Own account work, fixed-term contracts and contracts with variable hours all have become more prevalent since the early 2000’s. This paper describes the growth of flexible work arrangements from three perspectives. The institutional perspective reveals that the Dutch institutions provide incentives and possibilities for employers to circumvent institution-based risks and costs, and for workers to avoid taxes and social security contributions. The individual perspective shows that most workers nevertheless prefer an open-ended employment contract, which some groups manage to obtain more often than others. Over the life cycle the share of flexible employment contracts decreases among all cohorts and all social groups, but more so among the higher educated and men. Own account work, which is mostly a positive choice, increases over the life cycle. The job perspective shows that flexible work arrangements have grown in all sectors of the economy. In some sectors the increase is predominantly in own account work, in other sectors predominantly in flexible employment contracts, without a clear relation to sector characteristics.     

Lifetime employment in Japan: Concepts and measurements

This paper addresses three questions: (1) How big is lifetime employment in Japan? (2) How unique is it? and (3) How is it changing? Through the use of multiple data sets and methods, I find that no more than 20% of workers in Japan are likely to be employed under informal lifetime employment contracts, a far smaller percentage than has been reported. Job mobility remains considerably lower in Japan than in other advanced economies (particularly the US). Evidence regarding changes in lifetime employment is mixed. The share of workers in the core is declining, but the probability of job separations has remained stable for those who are already in the system. There is also evidence that the economic stagnation of the 1990s disproportionately affected females and younger workers.     

The Impact of the Crisis on Internal Population Movement in Indonesia

One of the ways in which Indonesians have adapted to economic change over recent decades is through permanent and temporary movement within and outside the country. This paper focuses on the effects which the crisis that started in 1997 has had upon population mobility among different groups and in different areas within the country. It begins by summarising the employment effects of the crisis, as indicated by the 1997 and 1998 National Labour Force Surveys. It then uses results from a number of surveys to identify the changes that have occurred in population mobility in Indonesia during the crisis. In particular it looks at the extent and nature of urban to rural movement, and at patterns of movement between Java and the Outer Islands. Although comprehensive data are lacking, it is argued that population mobility has become an important coping mechanism for confronting the crisis.     

Consumption,financial wealth and labor income in Korea

By examining the relationship between consumption, financial wealth and labor income in Korea, this paper presents three key findings. First, we find evidence that Korean households hold a larger proportion of their wealth in human capital instead of financial wealth, compared to households in other countries. Potentially, this finding appears consistent with Koreans’ enthusiasm for human development through education despite low government funding. Another important finding is that only financial wealth fluctuations contain a large portion of temporary components. Hence, financial wealth is mainly responsible for adjustments to restore the long-run relationship between consumption, financial wealth and labor income during the examined period. Third, and perhaps most interestingly, this paper finds that before the 1997 Asian financial crisis, households in Korea had difficulty smoothing their consumption over time. This finding may be at least partly attributable to households’ limited access to bank loans and their low level of financial wealth accumulation prior to the crisis. In contrast, we find little evidence that households’ consumption behavior has changed during the recent global financial crisis.     

The negative trade-off between risk and incentives: Evidence from the american whaling industry

This paper analyzes the trade-off between risk and incentives in the share contracts of the American whaling industry. Using a newly collected panel of 5378 individuals who sailed on more than 1000 whaling voyages from 1855–68, the response of sailors’ compensation to an increase in risk is estimated. The risks used to identify this response resulted from the commerce-raiding naval vessels of the Confederacy during the Civil War. As the Confederate cruisers sailed primarily in the Atlantic, and therefore posed far less of a threat to whaling voyages to other oceans, a quasi-experimental approach focusing on the differences between Atlantic voyages compared to others is implemented. The results are consistent with a negative trade-off between risk and incentives in the industry’s contracts. Moreover, evidence is found of selection among less risk-averse sailors and merchants into riskier voyages during the war.     

欧洲主权债务危机的由来、影响及其启示

全球各国为了尽快摆脱次贷危机导致的金融危机的困扰,纷纷采取＂赤字财政＂的扩张政策。当前尽管次贷危机的影响逐渐远去,但由此带来的副作用即＂主权债务危机＂却开始显现。近期,希腊、葡萄牙和西班牙等欧洲国家的主权债务问题一度引发全球资本市场的动荡并牵动投资者敏感的神经。文章通过分析欧洲主权债务危机的由来、对全球金融经济的影响以及对我国的启示来详细论述这次欧洲主权债务危机。     

Contagion and risk premia in the amplification of crisis: Evidence from Asian names in the global CDS market

In the turmoil of 2007–2009, troubles in a small segment of the US mortgage market escalated into a crisis of global proportions. A striking feature of the crisis is the contagion that hit Asia. In a region where direct exposures to problem mortgages were minimal, credit spreads for major borrowers widened even more than they did in Europe and the United States. We argue that the contagion was part of an amplification mechanism driven by valuation losses caused by the bursting of a global credit bubble. The valuation losses stemmed not so much from a reassessment of credit risks as from a global repricing of these risks. It was this repricing that was the main channel for contagion into Asian credit (and equity) markets. For empirical evidence, we analyze fluctuations in credit default swap (CDS) spreads and expected default frequencies (EDFs) for major Asian borrowers. We find that valuation losses on CDS contracts for these Asian borrowers arose in part from movements in global and region-specific risk pricing factors as well as from revisions to expected losses from defaults.     

China’s Growth,Stability, and Use of International Reserves

Since the onset of the global financial crisis, China and the U.S. have reduced their current-account imbalances as a share of GDP to less than half their pre-crisis levels. For China, the reduction in its current-account surplus post-crisis suggests a structural change. Panel regressions for a sample of almost 100 countries over 1983–2013 confirm that the relationship between current-account balances and economic variables changed in important ways after the financial crisis. China’s rebalancing has been accompanied by a decline in its reserves-to-GDP ratio and greater outward FDI that, in turn, has mitigated reserve hoarding.