The Methuselah Market Part II: Decision making and the older consumer

This is the second of two papers on the Methuselah Market, defined as those people within five years of retirement age. The first paper discussed the size, characteristics and potential of the market and identified product areas of particular interest. This second paper reviews the literature on the decision making behaviour of the older consumer and suggests marketing strategies which are particularly relevant to the Methuselah Market.     

Consumer satisfaction of retirees: products and services

This study was designed to assess the nature and extent of consumer satisfaction of retirees at two stages of retirement: Stage I, age 60–69; Stage age 70 and above. This cross-sectional mail survey study contained 196 retiree households selected at random, representing retirees who had been retired for at least 1 year and were 60 years of age or older. Results indicate that retirees are in fact a heterogeneous group of consumers who are generally self-reliant, with varying consumer problems and varying reasons for those problems. Results of this study, collectively, lend support to the notion that age alone is not an appropriate way of studying consumer concerns of retirees. Additionally, retirees' stage of retirement has no significant relationship to the person responsible for the weekly household shopping. Finally, reasons for consumer dissatisfaction are not related to the weekly household shopper.     

中国人口老龄化对经济可持续发展影响的分析

本文以 1990年人口普查得到的分年龄人口结构为基数 ,根据 1995年全国 1%人口抽样调查得到的生育水平和死亡水平数据 ,并结合 1990年以来的调查数据 ,预测了我国未来 50年人口变化。本文研究的主要内容是 :在运用最新人口资料对我国未来 50年人口预测的基础上 ,结合经济因素分析研究当前和未来人口老龄化对劳动抚养比、劳动力资源供给、退休金和社会消费量等经济方面的影响 ,其目的在通过量化研究与分析 ,对人口老龄化的经济影响作出有一定说服力的结论 ,并探讨这一领域的研究思路     

The Roles of Gender and Marital Status on Risky Asset Allocation Decisions

We analyze data on asset allocations in individual retirement accounts to examine the roles of marital status and gender on investment decisions. We utilize data from two birth cohorts to understand the relationship over a wide age range. We find that, in their 30s and early 40s, men are more likely to hold a majority of their funds in stocks in individual retirement accounts compared to women. The gender difference disappears around retirement age; however, a significant difference by marital status emerges in that age group. Divorced and widowed individuals are less likely to hold a majority of their funds in stocks compared to married individuals in their 60s. While there exists a positive gap in stock holdings between married men and married women in their 30s, the gender gap is nonexistent among older individuals. Using paired data on stock holdings in the older birth cohort, we show that husbands' and wives' asset allocations in individual retirement accounts are strongly correlated, coinciding with the lack of a gender gap in stock holdings among older couples.     

Determinants of retirement planning behaviour and differences by age

This paper presents the results of an investigation into the determinants of retirement planning behaviour and differences among three age groups: 21‐ to 39‐year‐olds, 40‐ to 59‐year‐olds and those aged 60 years and older. A national survey of 911 individuals from households with incomes of $75 000 or greater was conducted in the US. The significance of socio‐demographic variables, the ability to recover from loss, behavioural tendencies and perceived or actual personal control were investigated; together with their role in the prediction of maximization of retirement contributions and ownership in the personal individual retirement account (IRA) or Keogh accounts. The results identified several significant variables in the prediction of ownership in a personal IRA or Keogh, including age, sources of financial information, being an early investor and investor activity. The results also identified several significant variables in the prediction of the maximization of retirement contributions, including employment, income, savings activity, ex ante research, review of investment performance, early investor, investor activity, such as planning for financial future, setting up automatic deposits and reviewing financial information in the mail.     

Retaining and engaging older workers: A solution to worker shortages in the U.S.

Over the next 20 years, many organizations will experience significant shortages of skilled workers. At the same time, because of longer lifespans and a gradual rise in what society has considered the traditional retirement age of 65, older workers will represent a growing proportion of the American workforce. For a variety of reasons, many of these older workers desire to continue working and, if retained and engaged, they constitute a significant labor source for mitigating the emerging shortages of skilled workers. However, many organizations are not prepared to take advantage of this demographic shift; some even generate barriers that impede the retention and engagement of older workers. In this article, we identify a variety of ways in which organizations can retain and engage older workers to meet their staffing needs and enhance organizational performance. We also discuss the relationship of these proposals to prominent theories of motivation in management.     

预期寿命延长、延迟退休与经济增长

本文通过构建一个包含财政支出和内生生育率的世代交叠模型,考察预期寿命延长和延迟退休对经济增长的影响,并设定目标探讨预期寿命延长过程中如何调整退休年龄。研究发现,预期寿命延长使均衡状态的生育率下降、财政养老保险支出占比上升、劳均产出和总产出减少,延迟退休使均衡状态的生育率上升、财政养老保险支出占比下降、劳均产出和总产出增加,二者的影响效应相反,表明退休年龄延迟可以抵消预期寿命延长产生的负面影响。在财政养老负担不增、劳均产出不减、总产出不减三种目标下,退休年龄延迟岁数临界值均随预期寿命的延长而增加,但三种目标下的经济效应差别较大,且都会降低生育率。本文的政策启示是:预期寿命延长背景下,延迟退休是一个合理且必需的政策选项;建立与预期寿命相联动的退休年龄调整机制,同时拓宽养老保险制度筹资渠道和完善生育配套政策,有助于遏制生育率下降、减轻财政养老负担和促进经济增长。     

U.S. Workers Delaying Retirement: Who and Why and Implications for Businesses

One of the main trends in the labor market in recent years is the aging of the workforce, which partly results from older workers delaying retirement. Using the Current Population Survey from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, we find that the trend of delaying retirement began as early as the mid-1990s, accelerated since the beginning of the latest recession, and has continued into the first four months of 2011. We also find that the development of this trend varied significantly across socioeconomic groups, industries, and occupations. We then use The Conference Board Consumer Confidence Survey to measure the impact of home prices and labor market conditions on retirement decisions, and find that workers in households that experienced labor loss/compensation cuts and significant declines in home prices were more likely to plan to delay retirement. These results also indicate that workers from states that suffered from large declines in home prices and high unemployment are more likely to delay retirement. We conclude by discussing potential economic and business implications.     

The under-reported impact of age discrimination and its threat to business vitality

The Age Discrimination in Employment Act (ADEA, 29 USCA, 621) is credited with helping eliminate many blatant forms of age discrimination in employment. For example, before the ADEA was enacted 37 years ago, it was common for employment ads to list age limitations, indicating people over 40 need not apply. Across the board, mandatory retirement policies went unchallenged. Despite advancements in these areas since the founding of the Age Discrimination in Employment Act, it remains to be seen whether the ADEA has completed the job it set out to do. Has it proven to be an effective tool for eliminating the unreasonable prejudices that make it difficult for older workers to achieve their full potential? Has it provided adequate compensation for victims of discrimination? The following article takes a snapshot of the current work environment to gain a perspective. Based on extensive interviews with academics, employment lawyers, advocates for older workers, and older workers themselves, it reveals the need for reforms. It finds that, in a legal environment slanted toward employers, older workers continue to face bias and stereotyping, that most victims of discrimination are not made whole, and that society's lack of concern for this type of discrimination may prove more costly in the future as employers look more to older workers to fill projected workforce gaps.     

收入水平和收入风险对养老投资行为的影响——基于武汉市中心城区的调查数据

引导居民进行养老投资是缓解养老经济压力的重要途径之一,而影响养老投资的因素有很多。运用武汉市7个中心主城区753个居民的调查数据,以收入为切入点,从收入水平和收入风险两个角度考察其对居民养老投资行为的影响。研究结果显示,收入水平越高、收入风险越大,居民参与养老投资的可能性越大;收入水平与收入风险的边际效应呈倒U型,其中收入水平在6~10万的居民,养老投资的边际效应最大;异质性分析显示,女性、受教育程度较高、健康状况较差以及年龄较大的居民,收入水平和收入风险对养老投资的促进作用更大。通过用家庭收入水平代替个人收入水平、考虑风险态度与金融能力因素对养老投资的影响等方法进行稳健性检验,都证明了上述结果的可靠性。该结果不仅可以解释武汉市城镇居民养老投资的现状,而且对促进养老金融市场的发展与相关政策的制定也具有一定的启发和现实指导意义。     

Raising the Mandatory Retirement Age and its Effect on Long‐run Income and Pay‐as‐you‐go (PAYG) Pensions

In this paper we study the effects of raising the mandatory retirement age in the neoclassical growth model context. It is shown that postponement of the retirement age may be harmful for long‐run income and even for pensions. Our findings show that the retirement age might be reduced, thereby obtaining a higher income and even higher pension benefits. This suggests that the idea that a higher mandatory age of retirement is always beneficial in the long run for income and pension payments is theoretically controversial.     

Ageing,retirement and pension reforms

The gist of this paper is that the financial problems of pensions arise not only from the ageing of the population but also from the progressive reduction of the retirement age. It shows that social security systems explain in part such a reduction and indicates why reforms encounter so many political obstacles even though they would benefit most retirees, particularly those with few resources.     

Retirement and transition phenomena in the family purchase process

Research is needed on the family purchase process of retirement‐age couples, because 78 million baby boomers are rapidly approaching retirement age. Both boomers and the retirement‐age couples in this study present special opportunities to marketers through new roles adopted in retirement. This study reports on perceptions of family purchase process participation among retirement‐age couples. Results indicate that transition retirees' family purchase process participation differs from that of post‐transition retirees. This finding has managerial implications for marketers wishing to serve desirable segments of current and future retirement‐age consumers. © 2007 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

Older Self‐Employed Workers and Planning for the Future

This study examined retirement expectations of the older self‐employed utilizing two theories: the normative anticipation of retirement and cumulative advantage theory. Two‐thirds of the older self‐employed had no retirement plans. Multinomial logistic regression showed that those with no retirement plans were more likely to be unmarried, in poorer physical health, with few resources, and more obligations, but they expected to live a long time. Job skills programs and managerial training could improve the financial well‐being of the older self‐employed and enable them to plan for retirement.     

中国社会保险缴费率的降低空间与方案模拟——以城镇企业职工基本养老保险为例

以城镇企业职工基本养老保险为例,在确保基金2016～2090年正常运转的前提下,通过建立精算模型分析缴费率是否具备降低空间,研究发现:如果退休年龄自2022年每年延迟3个月直至65岁,且"全面二孩"生育意愿达到61%及以上,缴费率可从28%降至25.51%～27.94%;进一步,如果允许养老保险基金入市,且投资收益率达到全国社保基金理事会公布的8.82%,无论"全面二孩"生育意愿为多少,缴费率可降至24.43%～26.41%;再进一步,如果政府继续减持国有股充实全国社保基金,缴费率可降至23.63%～25.54%.综上所述,为减轻用人单位和职工的缴费负担,除采取延迟退休和鼓励生育等措施外,政府还可尽快完善养老金入市、减持国有股充实社保基金.     

养老金计划改革的宏观经济影响：中国与发达国家的比较研究

介绍了在人口老化背景下,以经合组织成员为首的发达国家的不同养老金改革方案的宏观经济影响,研究了发达国家公共养老金改革方案(如延迟退休年龄改革方案)在中国的适用性问题、公共养老金市场化改革方案的优势与安全性问题,提出了适合中国的养老金改革政策建议.     

Capturing the voice of older consumers in relation to financial products and services

The purpose of this pilot study was to focus on the suitability of selected financial products for older people. Bank accounts and equity release products were selected for this study by an expert advisory panel. New marketing initiatives are being used to promote bank accounts, including forms of insurance, for the ‘50+’ market. Also, older people are now expected to provide for their retirement and it is anticipated that equity release will be one product which may be used to fund and maintain consumer lifestyles. In the first phase of the study, a questionnaire was distributed to 152 people aged over 50 years in Scotland. Eighty‐three were completed, a response rate of 55%. The results informed the development of questions for the second phase which were discussed with 46 participants via the World Café in June 2008, enabling a deeper insight into their opinions. The research found that consumers had lost trust in financial product and service providers because of the perceived excessive profits of banks and lack of customer service. Further, many products and services were prohibited for or incurred extra costs to those aged over 60 or 65 years, leaving limited choices, and equity release products were seen as a last resort for those in financial difficulty. Although the profitability of banks has changed dramatically since the completion of data collection, the issues identified by older consumers in Scotland will be of international interest. The demographic changes resulting in an increasing proportion of elderly people in the population are reflected throughout the UK and many Organisation for Economic Co‐operation and Development countries. Similar financial products and services, which were the focus of this study, are promoted internationally, offering opportunities to replicate the research methods.     

The Unemployment Effects of Proposed Changes in Social Security's “Normal Retirement Age”

This paper identifies and analyzes an inherent conflict between some proposed U. S. Social Security reform measures, which would encourage delayed retirement decisions, and the objective of minimizing the economy's unemployment rate. Using recent demographic trends in the age composition of the U.S. labor force, the study suggests that such proposed U.S. Social Security reform measures may actually increase the economy's unemployment rate. It concludes that measures to encourage older workers would relieve labor market pressures (while also helping the Social Security system) if and only if unemployment was persistently near the non-accelerating inflation rate of unemployment (NAIRU). However, in an economy with above NAIRU unemployment, which has been the case most often in recent years, the opposite Social Security policy logic would apply. JEL Classification H557     

Pension Freedom Day in the United Kingdom: Early evaluation of consumer response

Understanding decumulation decisions in retirement is an important component of public policy that influences pension regulations in aging societies. This research examined a recent, substantial change to pension regulation in the United Kingdom: the newly established flexibility to obtain a lump‐sum payout from personal or occupational pension savings. Conducting an online survey of individual’s eligible to take advantage of the Pension Freedom regulation, we find that almost half of study participants plan to obtain a lump‐sum payout, on average £33,741, intending it for an average of three different investments or purchases. The decision to obtain a lump‐sum withdrawal was related to better knowledge of the new regulation. It was also more likely among older respondents and those not worried about a decline in standard of living during retirement. Dispositional measures did not affect the lump‐sum decision. Close to one‐third of study participants still planned to invest retirement savings into an annuity, especially those who retire at a later age, have concerns about care costs and worry about decline in standard of living in retirement. Comments about the changes to pension regulation were slightly more positive than negative. From our analysis of the effect of the Pension Freedom regulation on savings decumulation decisions, we conclude that the new Pension Freedom regulations do meet consumer demands, and demonstrate that pension knowledge and retirement expectations, in particular, influence consumer evaluations. We further conclude that annuity investments continue to play a role for older adults in the United Kingdom, especially for those concerned about meeting financial needs during retirement.