中间品进口与中国企业出口行为研究:“扩展边际”抑或“集约边际”

本文采用企业异质性贸易模型,利用中国工业企业和海关贸易统计库的合并数据将中国出口总量增长分解为出口的扩展边际和出口的集约边际,在此基础上实证研究了中间品进口对二元边际的影响。结果显示,中间品进口对企业出口扩展边际和集约边际都具有积极的促进作用;通过系数标准化发现,中间品进口的促进作用更多体现在集约边际而非扩展边际;分样本检验中,发现中间品进口来源国、贸易方式以及所有制类型会对促进作用产生显著影响。本文的发现为中国出口贸易扩展主要源于集约边际提供了一个科学的解释,也为中国对外贸易政策的调整与转型提拱了参考依据。     

知识产权保护、创新模式选择与我国贸易扩展边际北大核心CSSCI

本文在多产品企业模型基础上,构建了一个分析知识产权保护、创新模式选择与贸易扩展边际的理论框架,揭示出知识产权保护通过影响企业创新模式选择进而影响贸易扩展边际变化的内在机理。研究发现,随着知识产权保护力度的加强,企业将会转向自主创新模式,降低企业进口扩展边际,提升出口扩展边际。运用2000-2006年中国工业企业数据库与海关数据库的微观层面匹配数据,本文计量研究结果亦支持这一理论预期,而进一步深入研究发现,知识产权保护通过进口扩展边际渠道产生的创新倒逼效应以及出口扩展边际渠道产生的出口学习效应均可正向反馈于企业生产率,但两种效应存在异质性。     

知识产权保护、创新模式选择与我国贸易扩展边际

本文在多产品企业模型基础上,构建了一个分析知识产权保护、创新模式选择与贸易扩展边际的理论框架,揭示出知识产权保护通过影响企业创新模式选择进而影响贸易扩展边际变化的内在机理。研究发现,随着知识产权保护力度的加强,企业将会转向自主创新模式,降低企业进口扩展边际,提升出口扩展边际。运用2000-2006年中国工业企业数据库与海关数据库的微观层面匹配数据,本文计量研究结果亦支持这一理论预期,而进一步深入研究发现,知识产权保护通过进口扩展边际渠道产生的创新倒逼效应以及出口扩展边际渠道产生的出口学习效应均可正向反馈于企业生产率,但两种效应存在异质性。     

贸易便利化对中国企业出口二元边际的影响

本文采用中国海关数据库和OECD编制的TFIs指数,从出口企业-目的地层面分析了出口目的地贸易便利化对中国企业出口二元边际的影响。研究显示:目的地贸易便利化的提升对中国企业出口额增长有显著的促进作用,但企业的出口增长是通过缩小出口产品种类数(扩展边际)、扩大产品平均出口额(集约边际)实现的。拓展分析表明:随着目的地贸易便利化水平的提升,小企业和加工贸易企业会更多地缩小出口产品种类;低收入经济体贸易便利化提升对中国企业出口扩展边际的消极影响更大。据此,企业应专业化、规模化地生产有比较优势的产品,不断提升自身生产率,积极应对贸易便利化带来的机遇和挑战。     

互联网对企业进口的影响——来自中国制造业企业的经验分析北大核心CSSCI

近年来,互联网迅速发展普及,正成为影响国际贸易的一个重要因素。对当前互联网贸易效应进行全面的检验与评价,是摆在学界和政策制定者面前的一个重大研究命题。通过系统分析互联网对企业进口的影响及其中作用机制和渠道,并利用2004~2009年工业企业数据和海关数据,实证考察了互联网对中国企业进口的影响,估计结果表明:(1)互联网显著促进了企业进口可能和进口额的提升;(2)互联网对进口额的促进效应主要源于国家层面集约边际和产品层面集约边际的提升;(3)互联网只促进了相对发达地区企业的进口,对欠发达地区企业进口反而产生了抑制效应。本文丰富了互联网对贸易影响的研究,为互联网进口促进效应提供了微观层面的证据,同时也为"互联网+"战略的实施提供了有益的启示。     

电子商务与中国企业出口行为:基于世界银行微观数据的分析

本文基于异质性企业垄断竞争模型的分析表明,电子商务提高了企业参与出口的可能性和企业出口密集度,即促进了企业出口扩展边际以及集约边际出口增长,而电子商务的贸易促进作用与企业生产效率正相关。本文基于世界银行中国企业调查数据,利用Probit以及Fractional Probit计量方法对理论模型推出的相关命题进行了检验,并用广义倾向得分匹配法(GPSM)对可能存在的内生性问题加以控制。经验研究结果支持了相关命题,即电子商务在出口可能性与出口密集度两个维度上,对贸易产生了显著的促进作用,虽然本文的结论也支持低效率企业出口的"生产率悖论"现象,但发现电子商务在边际上缓解了这种悖论。分不同规模和所有制样本的经验研究比较发现,电子商务的发展对大规模企业促进作用大于小规模企业、外资企业大于内资企业、民营企业大于国有企业。     

减税与退税并举是中国制造业产品出口的新动源吗

本文从产品层面增值税税率视角测度了“减税与退税并举”组合式税费支持政策的强度，并采用2002—2013年匹配的中国工业企业数据库和海关进出口数据库，利用双向高维固定效应模型验证该政策对企业内产品出口数量集约边际和出口目的国扩展边际的影响。研究发现：“减税与退税并举”组合式税费支持政策助推了产品出口数量集约边际的扩张；随着产品距离的增加，组合式税费支持政策对产品出口数量集约边际的促进作用加强；组合式税费支持政策同样促进了产品出口目的国扩展边际的扩张。总的来说，组合式税费支持政策可能成为未来中国制造业产品出口增长的新动源。     

ODI二元边际如何影响制造业跨国企业出口

随着我国跨国企业国际化步伐日益加快,ODI如何影响企业出口成为理论研究的焦点问题.本文基于ODI二元边际视角,利用我国2009-2015年A股上市的172家样本企业数据,采用GMM估计方法研究ODI扩展边际和集约边际对我国制造业跨国企业出口的差异化影响,发现ODI扩展边际能明显促进我国制造业跨国企业出口密集度提升,并且促进作用持续增强;ODI集约边际对跨国企业出口密集度的作用效果呈现出不稳定性,不同投资动机、不同投资国别与不同进入模式下ODI集约边际对企业出口密集度的作用效果具有差异性.进一步检验ODI二元边际对跨国企业出口的影响机理,发现ODI扩展边际主要通过“固定成本效应”影响跨国企业出口,而ODI集约边际主要通过“生产率效应”影响跨国企业出口.     

贸易方式、所有权结构与中国企业出口扩展边际

本文通过构建出口的多重边际分析框架识别中国出口增长的源泉。然后借助基于交易信息的出口商-产品-目标国-贸易方式的微观数据,研究中国企业出口的市场扩展边际和产品扩展边际,同时从所有权结构、贸易方式以及企业特征等维度解读企业出口扩展边际的差异。研究发现:(1)贸易方式和所有权结构在一定程度上塑造了中国企业出口扩展边际的特征;(2)在加工出口和一般出口两种出口贸易方式下,各种纳入模型的因素对企业的出口边际所产生的影响基本一致,但生产率和杠杆率对于一般出口和加工出口的作用方向相反;(3)国有控股的所有制性质抑制企业出口市场和产品线的拓展;(4)企业规模、年龄、融资能力等因素在不同贸易方式下对出口扩展边际的作用方向不同。基于以上发现,本文认为针对贸易方式和所有制特征的结构性改革是实现中国出口可持续发展的重要途径。     

政府治理如何影响企业出口边际

本文在考虑以环境成本和贪腐成本为代表的非期望产出情况下,核算了中国省级地方政府的治理能力,结合2000-2006年的中国工业企业数据库和中国海关贸易数据库,从出口企业、出口产品、出口市场和出口价格4个维度研究了政府治理对中国企业出口边际的动态影响。研究结果表明:政府治理虽然显著促进了企业出口集约边际,却也显著抑制了企业出口扩展边际,政府治理对中国出口增长的带动更多体现在"量"而非"质"上;这一结论在考虑企业资本密集度、所有制属性和贸易方式后呈现出显著的差别化特征;政府治理能力和企业生产率间存在显著的交互效应,纳入政企间的交互影响后,中国出口企业的"生产率悖论"并不存在。     

融入产品内国际分工体系如何影响企业出口的二元边际——基于两步系统动态GMM估计方法的研究

本文利用WIOD的宏观投入产出数据和大样本微观企业合并数据, 采用两步系统动态GMM估计方法分析融入产品内国际分工体系对我国企业出口二元边际的影响.研究结果发现, 融入全球产品内分工体系显著促进企业集约边际的增长, 但没有促进扩展边际的增长; 融入全球产品内分工体系促进加工贸易企业及港澳台、 外资企业集约边际的扩张, 抑制国有和集体企业扩展边际的增长.     

Input tariff liberalisation and servitisation in manufacturing: Evidence from China's WTO accession

This paper links the sharp drop in China's manufacturing servitisation (MS) in early 21st century to China's accession to WTO featured by conspicuous input trade liberalisation (ITL). The results show that manufacturing industries exposed to higher degree of ITL suffer more MS declines after China's accession to the WTO. Heterogeneous analysis shows that industries with high import intensity, capital intensity or technology intensity suffer more MS declines following input trade liberalisation. Further analysis shows that input trade liberalisation increases the import of intermediate inputs while significantly reduces the proportion of service imports for manufacturing industries. The results are robust to a series of robustness checks.     

Markups,import competition and exporting

This paper analyses the relationship between markups and international trade at the firm level using a large sample of French manufacturing firms for the period 1995–2007. In particular, the paper investigates the effect of increasing import competition from China on firms' price–cost margins and the way in which exporting interacts with this effect. The results show robust evidence that firms in more direct competition with Chinese imports decrease their markups. However, firms that become exporters experience a smaller reduction in their price–cost margins. Consistent with these findings, the results also show that firms facing tougher competition from China are more likely to start exporting to avoid such competitive pressures.     

Trade Effects of Anti-dumping in India: Who Benefits?

This article assesses the trade effects of anti-dumping (AD) duties levied on 177 (8-digit) products by India during the period 1994 to June 2001. A panel regression has been applied to quantify the effects of AD actions on import volumes, values, and prices. It finds that the investigation effects of AD actions are not substantial. The imposition of AD duties restrains trade (both volume and value) and raises import prices. While trade effects start dissipating in subsequent years, import prices from both named and unnamed countries rise significantly in the post-duty years. There is little evidence that trade is diverted from unnamed to named countries. Thus, the domestic industry is benefited due to the price rise. Their financial position improves at the expense of both consumers and downstream industries. Since anti-dumping is an expensive form of protection, only large and dominant producers in concentrated industries emerge as the major beneficiaries of this protection. Finally, the developing trade partner countries suffer significant import losses when named. However, the trade destruction effect is insignificant for developed countries. Even though the unit value of their imports rises, there is no evidence of decline in trade from these countries.     

Cheap Imports and the Loss of US Manufacturing Jobs

This study examines the role of international trade and specifically imports from low‐wage countries, in determining patterns of job loss in U.S. manufacturing industries between 1992 and 2007. Motivated by intuitions from factor‐proportions‐inspired work on offshoring and heterogeneous firms in trade, we build industry‐level measures of import competition. Combining worker data from the Longitudinal Employer‐Household Dynamics data set, detailed establishment information from the Census of Manufactures and transaction‐level trade data, we find that rising import competition from China and other developing economies increases the likelihood of job loss among manufacturing workers with less than a high school degree; it is not significantly related to job losses for workers with at least a college degree.     

The effect of WTO on the extensive and the intensive margins of trade

We use 6-digit bilateral trade data to document the effect of WTO/GATT membership on the extensive and intensive product margins of trade. We construct gravity equations for the two product margins motivated by Chaney (2008). The empirical results show that standard gravity variables provide good explanatory power for bilateral trade on both margins. Importantly, we show that the impact of the WTO is concentrated almost exclusively on the extensive product margin of trade, i.e. trade in goods that were not previously traded. In our preferred specification, WTO membership increases the extensive margin of exports by 25%. At the same time, WTO membership has a negative impact on the intensive margin. Based on novel comparative statics results about how fixed and variable trade costs impact the product margins of trade, our results suggest that WTO membership works by reducing primarily the fixed rather than the variable costs of trade.     

The High-Value Commodity Export Effects of Standards in Africa

ABSTRACT

The stringency in standards usage, especially in developed markets, has trade effects, particularly for Africa. Thus, this study investigated the export effects of the EU standards for Africa in a two-step, Helpman et al. (2008) model for two high-value commodities. In all, 52 African countries were considered from 1995 to 2012. This study finds that fish standards are trade enhancing at the extensive margins, but not at the intensive margins. However, vegetable standards are trade inhibiting at both the extensive and intensive margins. Thus, these findings suggest that the impacts of standards on exports are commodity-specific.     

The great trade collapse and the Spanish export miracle: Firm‐level evidence from the crisis

We provide novel evidence on the microstructure of international trade during the 2008 financial crisis and subsequent global recession by exploring a rich firm‐level data set from Spain. The focus of our analysis is on changes at the extensive and intensive firm‐level margins of trade, as well as on performance differences (jobs, productivity and firm survival) across firms that differ in their export status. We find no adverse effects of the financial crisis on foreign market entry or exit, but a considerable increase in the export intensity of firms after the financial crisis. Moreover, we find that exporters were more resilient to the crisis than non‐exporters. Finally, while exporters showed a significantly more favourable development of total factor productivity after 2009 than non‐exporters, aggregate productivity declined substantially in a large number of industries in Spanish manufacturing. We also briefly explore two factors that might help explain the surprisingly strong export performance of Spain in the aftermath of the great trade collapse: improved aggregate competitiveness due to internal and external devaluation and a substitutive relationship between domestic and foreign sales at the firm level.     

进口贸易、生产率与企业创新

本文借助2000-2013年中国工业企业数据库、企业专利数据库与海关进出口贸易数据库,构建了企业产品层面和行业层面的进口价值替代变量,并从生产率的角度,对进口促进我国企业创新的异质性影响进行了系统分析。研究发现,进口对企业创新的影响取决于企业的生产率水平,企业的生产率越高,进口对创新的促进作用越明显,且这种促进作用只在生产率超过中位数水平的企业中显现。同时,机制检验发现,高生产率企业在吸收进口技术溢出和应对进口竞争时更具有比较优势。异质性分析发现,来自不同研发投入国的进口对企业创新的影响并无显著差异,知识产权保护则放大了进口对高生产率企业创新的促进作用和对低生产率企业创新的抑制作用;即使是生产率最低的一般贸易企业,进口也对创新起到了激励作用,而加工贸易企业的创新活动不能从进口中获益。