家庭财富与城镇居民创业行为研究

企业家创业活动在经济和社会发展中发挥着重要作用,本文从家庭财富的视角研究我国城镇居民的创业问题。利用CHIPS2008年数据研究发现:家庭财富越多,城镇居民选择创业的概率越高,即创业过程中存在流动性约束。通过选取更为外生的财富衡量指标以及引入工具变量两种方法缓解潜在的内生性问题后,研究结论依旧稳健。进一步区分财富对不同类型创业活动的异质性影响发现,财富显著提高了城镇居民选择“自雇型”创业的概率,但对选择“雇主型”创业影响较小或不存在显著的影响。考虑到截面数据对财富与创业行为关系的识别可能存在一定的局限性,本文进一步引入CFPS面板数据,利用面板固定效应模型对两者之间的关系进行稳健性检验。本文的研究结论可为政府优化金融环境,缓解信贷约束,促进居民创业行为提供依据。     

Founder,Academic, or Employee? A Nuanced Study of Career Choice Intentions

We add novel insights to the debate about why individuals choose to start their own firm by comparing entrepreneurial intentions to the intentions to work at a university as an academic and to be employed in a private firm. To model this more complex set of career choices, we examine novel multiplicative aspects of the theory of planned behavior (TPB) and test our hypotheses on survey data of 15,866 students from 13 European countries. Multinomial logistic regression analyses reveal how the different TPB elements influence career preferences and demonstrate the moderating effects of perceived controllability and desirability.     

A marginal-predictive approach to identifying household parameters

Estimation of household parameters in scanner panel data requires the introduction of prior information. Traditionally, prior information is incorporated by restricting parameters to be constant across households or by specifying a random coefficient distribution. An alternative solution is to incorporate stochastic prior information in a formal Bayesian approach. In standard Bayesian analysis, a prior distribution over the model parameters is specified and combined with the household likelihood to obtain the Bayes estimates. The construction of the prior distribution over model parameters may be difficult, especially when working with new models whose parameters are difficult to interpret. In this paper, we propose a solution which specifies prior information through the marginal distribution of the data, i.e., the outcomes. We evaluate this marginal-predictive approach, using both actual and simulated panel data, and show it to be highly accurate relative to other available alternatives.     

Causality nexus of exports,FDI and economic growth of the ASEAN5 economies: evidence from panel data analysis

This paper analyzes the causal relationships between exports, FDI and economic growth among the ASEAN5 countries. We have used a three-stage procedure based on unit root, co-integration and causality tests applied to the panel data from 1981 to 2013. The results reveal that there is a bi-directional causal relationship between FDI and growth in the long run, while there is a unidirectional causal relationship from FDI to exports in the short run. Our results also confirm that the export-led growth (ELG) and FDI-led growth hypotheses hold true in the long and short run. To reinforce the FDI inflows, authorities should continue the progressive reduction of barriers, and increase the sophistication of quality exports to compete in the global market. This paper is the first of its kind to analyze the role of both FDI and exports in the ASEAN5 economies using panel analysis.     

Mobile Shopping Through Applications: Understanding Application Possession and Mobile Purchase

Smartphones have penetrated rapidly and mobile shopping provides promising market opportunities for retailers. However, little is known about mobile shopping patterns and inferring these patterns from online shopping may provide misleading insights. We combine mobile log data and a mobile panel survey, and examine two stages in mobile shopping: the possession of shopping applications (hereafter, apps) and the purchase via shopping apps. Our exploratory investigation of mobile data and its empirical analyses provide three substantive findings. First, online experience and mobile experience both positively relate to the possession of shopping apps. Second, browsing behavior for non-shopping apps helps understand the possession of shopping apps as it reflects user preferences for acquiring more apps. Third, purchasing decisions are explained by digital experience (i.e., online experience and mobile experience) and browsing information from shopping apps, with other factors being of little predictive value. The implications for mobile retailing research and practice are discussed.     

Gender specific effects of exports on work decisions in Indonesia

This paper proposes a new household panel data approach to study the gender specific effects of exports on labor force participation and household work.We construct a novel measure, the Export Exposure index, by combining information about exports and the respondent's location. The index enables us to address a key identification issue, which is to estimate the effect of exports that is unconfounded by unobserved household characteristics and macroeconomic shocks. We construct a simple model to show that if women have a comparative disadvantage in market work relative to men, and if an increase in exports increases the gender wage gap, Labor force participation of the women would be negatively related to exports. We find that in Indonesia, exports encourage women to substitute their time away from paid labor participation towards unpaid house or family work, but have no statistically significant effect on men, as predicted by our model.     

What Drives Micro-Angel Investments?

Despite of the significant role of informal venture capital in the financing of new entrepreneurial ventures, there is little research explaining the factors determining the propensity of individuals to make microangel investments. Building on two theoretical frameworks, a social psychological theory of planned behavior and an economic theory on the determinants of demand for risky assets in household portfolios, we develop a set of hypotheses predicting the propensity of individuals to make informal investments in new businesses owned by others. In our analysis we test whether the determinants of micro-angel investments are similar when investing in a business owned by a close family member versus more distant business. The hypotheses are tested using data from 6007 interviews of Finnish adults carried out in the Global Entrepreneurship Monitor program in 2000–2002. The findings show that the theoretical frameworks have more power in explaining investments in firms not owned by close family members. The study provides new understanding of the differences in the drivers of different types of micro-angel investments.     

Public health insurance,individual health,and entry into self-employment

We investigate the impact of a differential treatment of paid employees versus self-employed workers in a public health insurance system on the entry rate into self-employment. Health insurance systems that distinguish between the two sectors of employment create incentives or disincentives to start a business for different individuals. We estimate a discrete time hazard rate model of entry into self-employment based on representative household panel data for Germany, which include individual health information. The results indicate that an increase in the health insurance cost differential between self-employed workers and paid employees by €10 per month decreases the probability of entry into self-employment by 1.7% of the annual entry rate. This shows that entrepreneurship lock, which an emerging literature describes for the system of employer-provided health insurance in the USA, can also occur in a public health insurance system. Therefore, entrepreneurial activity should be taken into account when discussing potential health-care reforms.     

户口迁移类行政案件若干法律问题研究——以上海市虹口区法院2005-2010年相关案件为研究对象

随着户籍制度改革步伐的加快与城市化进程的不断推进,由资源分配不均、利益驱动等多种原因引起的户口迁移及相关行政争议案件逐渐增多。户口迁移类行政案件具有地域性、政策相关性、影响广泛性等诸多特点,在审判中反映出一些问题,如户口迁移法律规范效力层次低,户口的工具性价值和利益性特征明显,行政机关在户口迁移审批过程中执法程序不严格等。通过提升立法层次、完善执法程序以及注重协调化解在行政审判中的侧重适用是解决户口迁移行政争议的有效路径。     

Behavior of default-risk premiums for corporate bonds and commercial paper

The question addressed in this paper is whether default-risk premiums for short-term and for long-term securities behave differently over time. The question is important because it affects decisions by corporations and state and local governments as to the maturity structure of their debt. It also affects decisions by investors as to the maturity and the type and grade of security in which they invest. Several hypotheses have been advanced about the behavior of default-risk premiums for different maturities. The purpose of this paper is to test these hypotheses empirically with a set of data heretofore unused. In so doing, new insights are gained into the behavior of default-risk premiums for different maturities.     

An empirical analysis of individual level casino gambling behavior

Gambling and gaming is a very large industry in the United States with about one-third of all adults participating in it on a regular basis. Using novel and unique behavioral data from a panel of casino gamblers, this paper investigates three aspects of consumer behavior in this domain. The first is that consumers are addicted to gambling, the second that they act on “irrational” beliefs, and the third that they are influenced by marketing activity that attempts to influence their gambling behavior. We use the interrelated consumer decisions to play (gamble) and the amount bet in a casino setting to focus on addiction using the standard economic definition of addiction. We test for two irrational behaviors, the “gambler’s fallacy” and the “hot hand myth”—our research represents the first test for these behaviors using disaggregate data in a real (as opposed to a laboratory) setting. Finally, we look at the effect of marketing instruments on the both the decision to play and the amount bet. Using hierarchical Bayesian methods to pin down individual-level parameters, we find that about 8% of the consumers in our sample can be classified as addicted. We find support in our data for the gambler’s fallacy, but not for the hot hand myth. We find that marketing instruments positively affect gambling behavior, and that consumers who are more addicted are also affected by marketing to a greater extent. Specifically, the long-run marketing response is about twice as high for the more addicted consumers.     

Mobile Telephony,Financial Inclusion and Inclusive Growth

ABSTRACT

The paper employs the multipurpose nature of mobile telephony to investigate its welfare implications using a large sample of households in Ghana. We use seemingly unrelated probit and instrumental variable procedure to test for two related issues: First, we investigate whether mobile telephony promotes pro-poor development by helping households to efficiently allocate consumption and navigate out of poverty. Second, we analyze whether access to a broad array of financial services enhances the capacity of households to live worthwhile lives. The results show that mobile penetration and financial inclusion significantly reduce the probability of a household becoming poor and increase per capita household consumption of food and non-food items. Our results show that the welfare benefits of mobile telephony and financial inclusion are not more pronounced in female-headed households. These insights serve as useful guide for government and other stakeholders who are looking for avenues to improve livelihoods.     

Credit Card Indebtedness and Psychological Well‐Being Over Time: Empirical Evidence from a Household Survey

While a number of studies have investigated the relationship between debt and psychological well‐being, none so far has explored if and how this relationship evolves over time. We seek to fill this gap in the literature by empirically analyzing the impact of household credit card debt on debt stress. Using cross‐sectional data collected by The Ohio State University's Consumer Finance Monthly survey between August 2008 and December 2010, we construct a debt stress index and categorize households into three groups based on the length of credit card indebtedness. Our empirical results provide statistical evidence of time‐varying impacts of credit card debt on stress levels. Specifically, we find that debt stress for short‐run debtors is more than twice that of long‐run debtors. The results are robust across a range of econometric specifications.     

Profitability and Investment: Evidence from India's Organized Manufacturing Sector

Using a state‐industry panel data set of 55 industries for 19 major Indian states over the period 1983–84 to 2007–08, we analyze the contemporaneous and long run impacts of the rate of profit and its components—profit share, capacity utilization rate and capacity‐capital ratio—on investment using linear dynamic panel data models. Our results show that: (a) the rate of profit has both short and long run positive impacts on investment; (b) the profit share and capacity‐capital ratio have mainly long run positive impacts, but the capacity utilization rate has a more complex pattern of impact on investment.     

Factor allocation,economic growth and unbalanced regional development in China

On the basis of development accounting techniques and a factor misallocation framework, we use panel data of 30 Chinese provinces from 2000 to 2013 to assess how factor allocation affects economic growth and unbalanced regional development in China. In particular, we decompose economic growth into three parts, namely sector productivity (SP ), factor market efficiency (FME ) and factor endowment (FE ). We then conduct counterfactual analyses to investigate the short and long‐run roles of factor allocation in the income distribution across provinces. The results show that SP , FME and FE can explain 23%, 8.5% and 68.5% of economic growth, while labour, capital and energy reallocation account for aggregate productivity growth of about 47%, −4.8% and −0.1%. Furthermore, when the factors are efficiently allocated, transferring labour (capital, energy) from agriculture (service, industry) to the other sectors will increase the income per capita by 29.5% and 42.5% in the short and long term. Meanwhile, efficient factor allocation accounts for 32% and 29.7% of aggregate productivity and reduces the income variation across provinces by 25.5% and 23% in the short and long run, respectively.     

Personal strain and ethical standards of the self-employed

Using strain theory to examine the relationship between sources of personal strain and ethical standards, we study how variations in the self-employed's household income, educational level, associational membership, and trust in institutions link to the extent to which they maintain high ethical standards. We test our hypotheses using data from 3716 self-employed persons across 39 countries. The self-employed's ethical standards relate positively to their household income and trust in institutions but negatively to their educational level and associational membership. A supplementary exploratory analysis provides further insights into how broader cultural and institutional contexts in which the self-employed are embedded might influence the relationship between sources of personal strain and ethical standards.     

Save or (over-)spend? The impact of hard-discounter shopping on consumers' grocery outlay

An increasing number of consumers have come to patronize a hard discounter (HD) to save on their grocery budget. Given the HDs' rock-bottom prices, a complete switch from the traditional supermarket (TS) to the HD format would, indeed, substantially reduce grocery spending. However, consumers typically visit the HD on top of a TS, leading to a more complex purchase allocation and decision process. In addition to limiting the potential savings to part of the basket, these multiple store shopping patterns may therefore result in depletion of self-control resources and to self-licensing, consumers using realized savings to justify additional indulgent purchases. In this study, we explain and empirically analyze the effect of HD patronage on consumer spending, taking the selected shopping pattern (single versus multiple stores, visited on separate versus combined shopping trips) into account. To this end, we use scanner panel data on households' actual weekly purchase behavior. We also examine household differences in these effects, and relate them to household characteristics.Our results show that shifting the entire basket to the HD entails substantial savings. Yet, for the majority of consumers, adding a HD to the store set does not reduce grocery outlay: visiting the HD and TS on separate shopping trips leads to a “status quo”, and visiting them on combined shopping trips even enhances weekly spending. While consumers pay less per unit bought at the HD, this is (more than) offset by the purchase of larger quantities across a broad range of product categories, and of more expensive items at the TS. Especially older consumers or larger households, and consumers who shop more frequently or are easily enticed by promotions, are bound to overspend.     

我国农户消费理性行为的实证研究

本文利用偏自相关函数（PACF）、DF检验、工具变量法（IV）等分析方法，对农户的消费行为进行了实证分析，得出农户消费在统计上是符合随机游走假说的，但实际上有0．223的偏差．1阶滞后以后的农户消费对当期消费仍具有一定的负向影响。根据实证分析结果，在农户消费的增加额中．有47．6％来自农户当期收入的增加，有52．4％来自农户持久收入的增加。因此，虽然理性都是有限的，但与西方典型消费者相比，我国农户呈现出了更多“有限理性”的特点。针对我国农户消费行为，为了开拓农村市场，应该提高农民素质、完善农村市场、改善农村消费环境。     

金融资产日内跳跃检验比较及其股市跳跃特征分析

运用Monte Carlo模拟分析的方法，通过对现存几种日内跳跃检验方法进行比较后发现．就检测能力、错判率和跳跃方差偏差而言，ABD跳跃检验方法表现最优。利用ABD跳跃检验方法，通过对上证综指高频数据进行分析后发现，上证综指平均大约每四天发生一次跳跃。跳跃方差贡献约为19％，并且跳跃行为存在非对称性；同时发现跳跃行为是造成上证综指收益率尖峰厚尾特征的重要因素之一。     

Corporate fraud,risk avoidance,and housing investment in China

This study investigates the impact of corporate fraud on household investment choices. We conjecture that by undermining trust in the financial and insurance market, corporate fraud behaviour would decrease households' investment in risky financial assets and increase investment in non-financial assets. Combining data on households' investment behaviour with information on fraudulent activities of listed companies in China, we find that households with more lifetime experience of corporate fraud invest less in stocks and are less likely to purchase private insurance. By contrast, fraud experience increases households' intention to invest in residential real estate. In addition, the impact of corporate fraud is stronger among individuals who pay more attention to economic information, among individuals who have more social interaction, and among individuals in better regulated regions. Furthermore, we find that different types of fraud have differentiated effects on household investment decisions. Our findings indicate that corporate misconduct could generate profound negative externalities on the whole financial system.