贸易开放、人力资本与中国能源消耗

文章从贸易开放对中国能源消耗产生的影响这一基本问题出发,将人力资本纳入分析视角,研究了贸易开放、人力资本对中国能源消耗的直接效应和交互效应。利用中国2001-2012年30个省份的统计数据,运用固定效应回归模型和面板门槛回归模型进行了实证研究,结果表明：贸易开放对能源消耗的直接效应呈倒“U”型曲线关系,即在贸易开放水平较低时,提高贸易开放水平将增加能源消耗量并提高能源消耗强度;当贸易开放水平较高时,提高贸易开放水平反而能促使能源消耗量和能源消耗强度降低。人力资本对能源消耗的直接效应显著为负,提高人力资本要素积累将促进地区经济增长从物质资本驱动型向人力资本驱动型转变。贸易开放与人力资本对能源消耗的交互效应在人力资本处于较高的门槛区间时显著为负,说明贸易开放在人力资本较高的地区将促进该地区专业化生产节能降耗的人力资本密集型产品,从而降低地区能源消耗量并提高能源利用效率。     

美国产业结构的调整与贸易逆差

美国贸易逆差问题一直是学者们关注的焦点。众多学者对美国贸易逆差产生的原因提出了不同的解释。本文认为美国贸易逆差的持续扩大是其实体经济结构不断调整的外部反映,美国服务业占国民经济比重的不断提高是其贸易逆差持续扩大的深层次根源。服务业所占比重的提高一方面增加了美国对制造业产品的进口;另一方面也大大削弱了其产品出口能力。与服务业所占比重提高相伴随的是制造业向海外的转移,而这种产业转移也在一定程度上导致了美国贸易逆差。本文进一步利用实证分析方法检验了以上观点。     

Initiating U.S. Free Trade Agreements: How Do Potential Partners Stack Up?

This paper addresses the possible endogeneity of income in the gravity model by providing instrumental variables for income. Using these instruments (physical capital, human capital, and labor accumulation rates) in regression equations of the gravity model, it is shown that the effect of income on bilateral trade is highly significant and, in some cases, is not appreciably different from ordinary least squares estimates. The impact on trade of other gravity variables, including dummy variables for membership in various trading blocs, is also examined.     

Determinants of the structure of U.S. foreign trade, 1958–1976

The Heckscher-Ohlin model with three direct-factor inputs is borne out for U.S. net exports of manufactures in annual cross-section regressions for 1958–1976. The coefficient on unskilled labor became significantly more negative over the period, and there is evidence that the negative sign on physical capital may reflect the inclusion of natural resource industries. Further analysis based upon 1960 and 1970 census years suggests the importance as well of skill and technological variables. Calculations of the total factor requirements of U.S. trade uphold the Leontief paradox for 1958 but not for 1972.     

美国储蓄不足和全球储蓄过剩是美国贸易逆差产生的根本原因

美国贸易逆差以及主要由贸易逆差造成的经常帐户赤字已成为世界经济关注的热点问题。对美国贸易逆差产生原因的解释众多,本文以主流经济学分析框架得出美国储蓄不足是美国贸易逆差的根本原因的结论。美国国内储蓄不足导致外国资本的流入。外国资本一方面为美国提供了购买力,补充了美国的储蓄,另一方面,美国可用外国提供的购买力进口产品,满足自己的需求。美国的贸易逆差是其储蓄不足的结果。从全球视角出发,其他国家的储蓄增加,为美国补充了储蓄,为美国贸易逆差的产生提供了外部条件。认识美国贸易逆差产生的原因,可以更有利地支撑美国贸易逆差与中国对其贸易顺差没有根本联系的观点,及人民币汇率问题不是美国贸易逆差根本原因的观点。     

按属权原则核算美国服务贸易差额

在分析美国服务贸易的跨境贸易数据、附属机构销售数据和公司内贸易数据内涵基础上,依据贸易平衡的属权核算原则,提出对美国服务贸易平衡进行全面核算的方法和模型,并进行实证研究。     

Movies and the Mystery of the Missing Trade: Is Hollywood Good for U.S. Exporters?

Research has shown that consumers have a preference for goods based on the origin of production. This is important because it suggests that, in some cases, even lowering trade barriers may not significantly increase trade flows. In particular, flows may be lower than are predicted by trade theories such as Heckscher-Ohlin. Despite evidence that home consumption bias exists in many countries, it is only recently that research has begun to examine the sources of this bias.

This article fills a gap in the literature by testing a model that addresses the source of this consumption bias. The paper's model incorporates consumers' exposure to foreign products and culture through media imports and tourist visits as factors affecting consumers' preferences for foreign products. Using panel data from 19 countries, the article's results support the hypothesis that lagged exports of U.S. movies have a positive impact on other U.S. exports. Some evidence is also found of a positive effect of tourist visits on U.S. exports.

Since U.S. media exports may generate demand for other U.S. goods and services, opening up foreign media markets should receive a higher priority in U.S. trade negotiations. Another interesting implication of the paper is that overall U.S. export losses resulting from media piracy may be lower than previously calculated, as the consumption of pirated media products may increase demand for other U.S. exports.     

美国贸易逆差与经济增长相辅相成探析

美国的贸易逆差和美国经济增长相辅相成。美国贸易逆差持续扩大的背后是大量廉价商品的涌入和大量廉价资本的流入,它们降低了美国的通货膨胀率、增进了消费者的福利并加速了产业结构的升级,弥补了美国的投资-储蓄缺口,在一定程度上促进了美国的经济增长。而经济的稳定增长刺激了消费需求,又使美国贸易逆差进一步扩大。在经济全球化背景下,美国在发挥自己美元地位、资本市场以及信息技术等比较优势的同时,充分利用了他国的劳动力和资本要素并将其转化为自己的比较利益。     

Mode of entry mode into a foreign market: the case of U.S. mutual funds in Canada

U.S. mutual fund companies offer funds in Canada through two channels: foreign direct investment or trade in advisement services. The total value of U.S.-controlled funds amounts to 18% of the Canadian equity fund market. This paper investigates how the fund-level and firm-level characteristics affect the channel used to enter the Canadian market. Empirical results indicate that the funds offered through FDI are not especially successful in the U.S. market but are associated with dominant companies, whereas the funds offered through trade in advisement services are highly successful in the U.S. market and are from companies with relatively few successful funds.     

服务贸易对美国经常账户赤字的影响——基于豪斯克-麦奇收入不对称效应的验证

本文尝试构建一个基于H-M效应的模型,分析H-M效应对美国经常账户赤字变化的影响机制。并就该模型对美国经常账户赤字变化的解释能力进行验证,结果表明H-M效应对美国经常账户赤字的变化趋势具有较好的解释力。在此基础上,本文应用1986-2005年的数据分别估算了美国商品和服务品进出口收入弹性系数。估算结果显示,与商品进出口收入弹性系数相反,美国服务出口的收入弹性系数大于进口的收入弹性系数。为了探讨服务贸易对美国经常账户赤字的影响,应用基于H-M效应的模型分析美国服务贸易的发展对其经常账户赤字变化的影响。     

Productivity and Wages

The United States’ output per capita is approximately 30 percent higher than in the developed European countries and Japan, and its productivity growth is among the highest in the world. Much of this record has been due to an environment that fosters growth in human and physical capital and innovation. Maintaining and enhancing this environment is key to the growth we need for our future. Flexibility in the labor force, fostering entrepreneurship, and high levels of education are major contributors to U.S. productivity increases, which have been tracked closely by growth of compensation. Future productivity growth will depend largely on incentives for investment in physical and human capital by appropriate tax policies, continuing a free flow of trade and foreign investment, and making sure that young Americans have the skills necessary to compete in the global economy. JEL Classification J2, J24     

贸易结构、人力资本与技术创新效率——基于大中型企业动态面板的研究

本文利用1999～2007年中国省区面板数据和系统GMM方法研究了中间产品和服务贸易的国际R&D对中国技术创新效率的影响,结果表明:中间产品和服务贸易的国际R&D对中国的技术创新效率有显著的影响。研究结果同时显示:中间产品的国际R&D促进了东中西部的技术创新效率的提高,服务贸易的国际R&D对东部影响显著,对中西部不显著。人力资本吸收能力显著影响了国外研发的外溢,但对中西部不显著。因此,提高国内研发的转化率、增加人力资本存量和调整服务业结构是政府的政策导向。     

美国对外贸易的理念和货物贸易的基本格局

自由贸易是美国对外贸易的基本理念。贸易自由化是战后美国对外贸易政策的基本特征,原因在于贸易自由化每年给美国带来1万亿美元左右的收益。对美国货物贸易的基本格局可以从五个方面认识:美国是世界上进出口规模最大的国家;美国进口规模比出口规模对世界经济的影响更大;美国是世界上最大的贸易逆差国,享受了世界最多的物质财富;美国贸易条件的变动表明对外贸易格局有利于美国;美国进口规模扩大与产业结构升级的结合演变为美国结构性增长优势。     

Views of Trade Activity with the Soviet Union and China by U.S. Manufacturers

Given the recent developments in China and the treaty activity between the U.S. and the U.S.S.R., it is important to understand the interest as well as the actual trade activity with these two countries. U.S. manufacturers that currently trade (as well as those that do not) with these countries were queried regarding their attitudes and interest in specific trade related activities. Based on an analysis and comparison of the resluts, the attitudes and trade activities are presented as well as the implications for the furture.     

我国服务贸易竞争力影响因素的实证分析

本文首先阐述了一国服务贸易出口额可以表示一国服务贸易的国际竞争力;然后用数据证明了如下命题:现阶段,我国人力资本、城市化和外商直接投资通过改善资源禀赋质量而对提高我国服务贸易国际竞争力具有重要的影响,并且人力资本因素的影响最大,城市化因素的影响次之,外商直接投资因素的影响最小;最后提出了相应的对策。     

人力资本对经济增长绩效的实证研究——基于浙江省的分析

本文测量了浙江省1978-2004年经济增长过程中的物质资本存量、人力资本水平和人力资本存量,基于人力资本水平对经济增长影响的不同视角,建立包含物质资本和人力资本存量的不同类型生产函数模型,探讨各种生产要素对浙江经济增长的贡献率。通过对浙江经济增长过程中的三种类型生产函数的回归分析,及其各支撑因素对经济增长贡献率的比较研究,发现人力资本在经济增长的重要作用,人力资本水平是经济增长的格兰杰(Granger)原因。     

人力资本与服务贸易比较优势相关性研究

大多数西方经济学者都认为人力资本要素是影响服务贸易比较优势的关键因素之一,他们分别从不同的角度详细论证了人力资本与服务贸易比较优势之间的相关性。我国对于这个问题的研究起步相对比较晚。本文通过对人力资本与服务贸易比较优势相关性研究的理论梳理与比较,希望能为理解服务贸易比较优势理论提供新思路。     

农村人力、物质资本测算对农村经济发展影响——以新疆为例

运用因子分析测算了新疆农村人力资本投资综合水平，用永续盘存法测算了新疆农村物质资本存量，然后运用岭回归方法分析了新疆农村人力资本和物质资本对新疆农村经济发展的影响研究结果表明：新疆农村人力资本和物质资本存量水平均不高，农村人力资本对新疆农村经济发展的贡献率是农村物质资本贡献率的一半左右，农村人力资本外部性作用不明显.     

Encouraging Growth and Stability

When significant government action is needed and sought, as in the current financial crisis and weak economy, it is easy to forget the underlying market principles that have made the U.S. economy the strongest in the world. Adherence to these principles is the surest path to continued economic growth and stability over the long run. Of particular importance are policies that allow flexibility in labor markets; free movement of capital, unimpeded by excessive regulation; tax rates that minimize disincentives for the development of human and physical capital; and liberalization of international flows of goods, services, and capital. Regarding the current credit crisis, its effect on the real economy has been amplified by falling asset prices and high oil prices. Policy will be continuously evolving, but the $700 billion stabilization package is an important step. Presented at the National Association for Business Economics 50th Annual Meeting, Washington, D.C., October 7, 2008     

基于智力资本绩效的实证分析

使用SPSS统计软件,运用相关分析和回归分析法对我国电子信息产业的34家上市公司进行实证分析。发现企业绩效(获利能力)与物质资本显著正相关,与结构资本正相关,与人力资本正相关,但在统计上并不十分显著。文章对此结果进行了探讨。