Country risk,country risk indices and valuation of FDI: a real options approach

Country risk, and in particular political risk, may constitute a large part of the total risk investors face when investing in emerging markets. It is not a straightforward task to quantify and include these types of risks in the evaluation and valuation of real investments. We suggest a method involving country risk indices. The approach is based on the real option approach for valuation of real investments.     

Towards a behavioral theory of MNC response to political risk and uncertainty: The role of CEO wealth at risk

Drawing on behavioral agency research, we examine how CEO equity wealth at risk of loss in the form of restricted stock influences the response of multinational corporations (MNCs) to political risk and political uncertainty. In a sample of 14,765 cross-border greenfield investments and full acquisitions announced by U.S. firms from 2004 to 2016, we find that while greater CEO equity wealth at risk of loss in the form of restricted stock strengthens the (positive) relationship between political risk and MNCs’ choice of greenfield investments over full acquisition, CEO equity wealth at risk of loss does not influence the relationship between political uncertainty and MNCs’ choice of greenfield investments. We contribute to international business theory by introducing a behavioral theory of MNC responses to adverse host country political environments. As such, unlike previous studies that have treated political risk and political uncertainty interchangeably, our study highlights the need to differentiate between political risk and political uncertainty as related yet distinct concepts.     

Emerging market multinational corporations' cross-border mergers and acquisitions and political distance: Does corporate political activity matter?

Due to rising anti-globalization sentiment, emerging market multinational corporations (EMNCs) face additional challenges in conducting cross-border mergers and acquisitions, particularly in the developed markets. Built on institutional theory, we specifically examine how political distance, representing host–home country differences in various attributes in the political environment, influences the speed of approval for EMNC acquisition in the United States. The findings suggest that a larger political distance between the United States and EMNCs home country reflects challenges for EMNCs to gain legitimacy in the United States, resulting in the longer time required for acquisition approval. The EMNCs' corporate political activity moderated this relationship in that more corporate political activity improves the legitimacy perception of EMNCs among political actors, decreasing the time required for acquisition approval.     

Ownership structures of norwegian foreign subsidiaries in manufacturing

This article explores how Norwegian multinational companies select ownership structures for their foreign manufacturing subsidiaries. Hypotheses are drawn from various theoretical perspectives on the choice of wholly owned versus partly owned affiliates. The hypotheses are tested on a sample of 174 foreign direct investments made by Norwegian companies. One main finding is that political risk of the host country strongly increases the probability that ownership of a foreign subsidiary is shared. The results also suggest that cultural distance between the home and the host countries leads to a higher propensity to joint venture. Other results were less conclusive and little support was found for a transaction coast approach to choice of ownership structures.     

A stranger in a strange land: Micro political risk and the multinational firm

When a firm chooses to enter or continue business in a foreign market, it becomes exposed to associated political risks which should be assessed and managed. Help is available for becoming aware of the level of macro political risk; that is, the political risk across industries or all businesses in entire countries or geographic regions. Yet, surprisingly little guidance exists by which to identify and assess firm-specific political risks, termed micro political risk. Herein, we offer some new perspectives on the nature of micro political risk within a host country, illustrating how it stems from economic, societal, and governmental forces. We have compiled a number of firm-specific variables which can affect the firm’s micro political risk profile, and advance an innovative methodology by which executives can address these variables and develop an assessment of their firm’s micro political risk. Examples of micro political risk situations are provided, along with discussion of implementing the proposed methodology.     

Home country uncertainty and the internationalization-performance relationship: Building an uncertainty management capability

We analyze the impact of home country uncertainty on the internationalization-performance relationship of emerging market firms. Building on organizational learning theory and the institutional approach, we argue that internationalization has a positive impact on the performance of emerging market firms, and that this relationship is strengthened for firms based in emerging countries with higher corruption and political risk. The reason is that by being exposed to high levels of home country uncertainty in the form of political risk and corruption, firms develop an uncertainty management capability at home that helps them face the challenges of internationalization better. We also propose that this uncertainty management capability helps emerging market firms perform better outside of their home region. We test our arguments on a sample of 536 firms from Argentina, Brazil, Chile, and Peru.     

经济一体化、政治风险和第三国效应对中国OFDI的影响

利用空间计量模型实证分析经济一体化、政治风险、第三国效应等因素对中国OFDI的影响。实证结果发现:中国OFDI型态倾向于复合性的FDI,且不受第三国效应影响;经济一体化程度越高越不利于中国OFDI,东道国的政治风险越高越不利于中国OFDI;此外,人均收入越高及文化邻近程度越高的国家,越显著有利于中国OFDI,东道国市场机会对中国OFDI有显著负向影响;中国的OFDI,国有企业居主导地位,且倾向于投资技术含量相对较低的产业。     

政治风险与中国企业对外直接投资——基于东道国与母国两个维度的实证分析

利用中国大陆企业对外直接投资(OFDI)统计数据和两类政治风险指数进行实证研究,结果发现:来自东道国的政治风险对OFDI有着显著的负向影响;本土的政治风险对于OFDI也有实质影响;经济增长、经济开放程度以及政府政策等因素对OFDI也有显著作用。     

Brazilian OFDI Determinants

Recently, the global economy assumed a new setting in which emerging economies began to make substantial investments in the international market. This study aimed to investigate the determinants of outward foreign direct investment from Brazil from 2002–2011. The proposed models developed included attractiveness of the host country, characteristics of home country, and firms’ strategies. The results corroborate the existing argumentations concerning adaptation of mainstream theory with respect to the realities of emerging economies. Brazilian multinationals do not internationalize their activities in pursuit of cost reduction, efficiency, or to explore new markets or natural resources of the host countries. Results show that Brazilian investments were attracted by the availability of skilled labor, openness of the host market, geographic proximity, improved financial conditions of Brazilian companies, and national companies’ strategy of reaffirmation and consolidation as global players.     

Establishment mode choice by Chinese firms in Latin America: The role of host country‐specific experience and government official visits

This study addresses establishment mode decisions by emerging‐market multinational enterprises entering other emerging economies. More precisely, we examine the influence of prior host country experience and home government official visits on the choice between the acquisition of a local company and the creation of a new subsidiary from scratch. By analyzing 315 investments carried out by Chinese firms in Latin America, we obtain that they are more likely to enter through an acquisition when they have established prior subsidiaries in the host country. Moreover, recent Chinese government official visits contribute to mitigate the difficulties of an acquisition for those companies with less local experience.     

Regulative Distance,Cultural Distance,Host Country Risk,and the Choice of Subsidiary Activity: Evidence from Brazilian Multinationals

This study examines the relationship between regulative distance, cultural distance, and host country risk, as well as the choice of production or distribution activities by emerging country multinationals when establishing a subsidiary abroad. The study uses a sample of 280 subsidiaries of 133 Brazilian firms in 39 countries. Binary logistic regression was used to test the research hypotheses. The impact of regulative distance on the decision on subsidiary activity follows the predictions in the literature. However, findings on cultural distance and host country risk showed an inverted sign, suggesting that Brazilian firms tend to establish production facilities in countries with higher cultural distance and higher cultural risk.     

Liability of emergingness and EMNEs’ cross-border acquisition completion: A legitimacy perspective

This paper contributes to the literature on emerging multinational enterprises (EMNEs) by revealing how the conditions in their home countries influence their cross-border acquisitions. The study focuses on the liability of emergingness (LOE). It develops an integrative theoretical framework based on neo-institutional theory and the concept of legitimacy to explain the relationship between LOE and EMNEs’ cross-border acquisitions completion and the situational conditions that shape this relationship. The study uses data on 27,648 announced acquisitions conducted by EMNEs from 24 emerging economies in 175 host countries to estimate the relationships. The results reveal that, while two types of LOE (economic and institutional) have negative impacts on cross-border acquisition completion, the negative impacts become less important or disappear when the host country’s unemployment rate is too high, and the host country’s institutional quality is too low. This finding suggests that EMNEs can mitigate the negative effect of the LOE by carefully choosing a good time and a suitable location to enter into these transactions.     

The interplay between home and host country institutions in an emerging market context: Private equity in Latin America

This study examines how the interplay between home and host country regulatory institutions affects the investment strategy of private equity (PE) firms in an emerging market context. To answer this question, we consider three different mechanisms: (1) the institutional hazard avoidance effect, (2) the institutional escapism effect, and (3) the dysfunctional institutions effect. Contrary to conventional wisdom, we argue that regulatory institutional differences between home and host countries can sometimes have a positive rather than a negative effect on investment likelihood. Our findings show that when a host emerging market has a strong regulatory institutional system relative to other emerging markets, it is more likely that this country will attract PE investments from firms based in home countries with very strong and very weak institutional systems. The empirical analyses, based on a polynomial specification and a dataset covering more than 300 PE firms that made close to 1500 investment transactions in Latin America during 1996–2011, are consistent with our main theoretical arguments.     

新兴市场国家吸引跨国并购的决定因素——从市场化程度视角的解析

近年来,发展中国家外国直接投资的流入量持续增加,并且跨国并购成为越来越重要的外资主要进入模式。本文考察新兴市场发展潜力与吸引跨国并购规模的内在相关性。通过理论和实证分析证实,新兴市场的市场潜力越大,特别是其中经济自由度、市场强度、商业基础设施的发展水平越高,吸引跨国并购的能力也越强。本文的启示是新兴市场国家市场经济制度的完善及与发达国家的接轨是提高吸收外资竞争力的重要条件。     

Do cross-border mergers and acquisitions increase short-term market performance? The case of Chinese firms

Despite the new momentum in cross-border mergers and acquisitions (M&As) by emerging market firms, we have a limited understanding of the impact of these activities. Drawing on signalling theory and the institution-based view, this paper examines the extent of stock market reactions to the announcement of cross-border M&A deals, based on an event study of a sample of Chinese firms during the period 2000–2012. The findings indicate that the announcement of cross-border M&As results in a positive stock market reaction; this effect is more significant in the mainland Chinese stock markets (Shanghai and Shenzhen) than that in the Hong Kong market. The shareholders of Chinese firms that acquire a target firm in a host country with a low level of political risk gain higher cumulative abnormal returns than those firms targeting companies in countries with a high level of political risk. The shareholders of Chinese state-owned enterprises experience lower abnormal returns compared with those of Chinese privately owned firms when engaging in cross-border M&A deals.     

The influence of political risk on the scope of internationalization of regulated companies: Insights from a Spanish sample

Political risk not only constitutes a threat for multinational enterprises but can also be a source of opportunities. Exposure to and accumulated experience dealing with political risk allows firms to better implement a wide set of political actions such as negotiation of entry conditions, lobbying, litigation, campaign contributions and coalition formation, leading to preferential conditions, reduced environmental uncertainty, reduced transaction costs and increased long-term sustainability to the firm. These advantages facilitate investments in countries with higher and more diverse levels of risk and make political risk to be positively associated with the firm's scope of internationalization. This effect is not homogeneous across firms. Drawing from a sample of 164 Spanish companies with investments in 119 countries, we find that the impact is greater for companies in industrial sectors that are the object of greater governmental regulation than it is for firms in non-regulated manufacturing or service sectors, with less frequent interactions with home and host-country institutions.     

Who Cares About Corporate Taxation? Asymmetric Tax Effects on Outbound FDI

This paper investigates whether different types of FDI are asymmetrically affected by corporate taxation. We classify investment projects according to several characteristics such as the general motivation for FDI, the type of business activity, or the degree of internationalisation of the multinational firm. Subsequently, we analyse how local taxes influence the number of German outbound investments in European countries. The analysis reveals significant asymmetries with regard to tax effects: vertically integrated investments are more sensitive to host‐country taxation than horizontal FDI; larger tax rate elasticities are estimated if business activities are considered highly mobile; and in accordance with profit‐shifting considerations, subsidiaries of more internationalised companies are less tax responsive to host‐country taxation.     

Corporate political activity in less developed countries: The Volta River Project in Ghana, 1958–66

The article expands existing categorisations of political and economic governance by including literature on less developed countries (LDCs). In four consecutive negotiations between the US multinational Kaisers and the US and Ghana governments in the early 1960s, it is argued that the company reached levels of influence that are at odds with existing explanations. In order to understand corporate political activities in LDCs, analysis needs to go beyond static factors (political risk) and include dynamic factors such as diplomatic relations and ‘arenas of power’, and consider the role of the investor's home country relative to the host economy.     

Do different types of political connections affect corporate investments? Evidence from Malaysia

In this study, we examine whether corporate investments are influenced by political connections. Using recent hand-collected data, we find that politically-connected firms are associated with higher levels of corporate investments. Particularly, corporate investments by politically-connected firms are twice the size of non-politically-connected firms. Furthermore, the effect is stronger for government-linked firms, firms with politically-connected controlling shareholders and older politically-connected firms. From the firm's characteristic perspective, the influence of political connections on corporate investments is stronger in larger firms and firms with higher bargaining power. Our findings remain unchanged despite been subjected to a wide range of robustness tests.