Do Remittances Facilitate a Sustainable Current Account?

We examine how workers' remittances impact on the current account. In doing so, we focus on how remittances affect the sustainability rather than the size of current account balances. We find that the presence of remittances makes it more likely that exports and imports are cointegrated, thereby lending support to current account sustainability. Furthermore, quantile regression analysis suggests that increased remittances are associated with a faster speed of current account adjustment towards long‐run equilibrium, particularly for those countries characterised by already highly persistent current account balances. In contrast to a literature that emphasises an adverse Dutch disease impact of workers' remittances on the real exchange rate in terms of reduced external competitiveness, our findings suggest that remittances are actually beneficial to the current account balance.     

The spillover effects of China's monetary policy shock: Evidence from B&R countries

This paper examines the international spillover effects of China's monetary policy shock on macro and financial variables in 26 countries along the Belt and Road (B&R) from 2000 to 2019. We find that a surprise Chinese monetary tightening brings about a widening in the short-term interest rate spread, a drop in the equity price, nominal depreciation against the RMB and real depreciation, and an improvement in the trade balance, on average, across the 26 B&R countries. Moreover, substantial heterogeneous effects emerge in the responses of the foreign real exchange rate and the trade balance in different groups in terms of the 26 countries' trade weights with China, capital openness, and national income levels. Finally, all the empirical evidence reveals that the expenditure switching effect plays an important role in facilitating the international transmission of China's monetary policy shock.     

Debt Relief and the Current Account: An Analysis of the HIPC Initiative

In this paper I develop a model to investigate the connection between debt relief and current account sustainability. This model can be used as a key input in assessing whether a HIPC country's real exchange rate is ‘overvalued,’ and will thus need to go through devaluation. The working of the model is illustrated for the case of Nicaragua, a country that in 2002 had one of the highest external debt to GDP ratios: almost 300 per cent. Nicaragua is the second poorest country in the Western Hemisphere (after Haiti), and for the last decade has relied very heavily on foreign assistance and aid. Moreover, in the last few years Nicaragua has run extremely large current account deficits in excess of 37 per cent of GDP during 1997‐2001 largely financed by grants, donations and migrant remittances.     

Foreign monetary shocks,differentiated products and international transmission: a two-country model with intra-industry trade

In this paper we study how the impact of a foreign monetary shock is transmitted between two monopolistically competitive economies engaging in intra-industry trade with differentiated products. Intra-industry trade is the only international link that works through the flexible exchange rate affecting national price levels and a product's internal and external relative prices. While national price levels are subject to purchasing power parity, the two relative prices are determined by the interaction between macro and micro variables. In this context, the exchange rate can insulate a national economy perfectly from a foreign monetary shock provided that monopolists adjust prices. Even if monopolists keep prices rigid, this shock only affects domestic real balances and aggregate demand, leaving domestic aggregate output unchanged because the real balances effect is just offset by the resulting unfavorable relative prices effects under the assumption of Spence-Dixit-Stiglitz preferences.     

What Drives India's Surge in Service Exports?

India's prowess in the service sector has been recognised the world over. Sustaining services exports is important not only to sustain India's high growth rate but also to compensate for a consistent deficit in merchandise trade and to maintain stability on the external sector. In this context, we analyse the factors of India's performance in services exports over the past three decades. The results reveal that endowment factors such as human capital, improvement in physical infrastructure and financial development are key drivers for India's surge in services exports along with world demand, exchange rate and manufacturing exports. While factors such as institutions, R&D expenditure, telecommunication, foreign direct investment and financial development significantly impact the export of modern services, traditional services exports are more dependent on infrastructure development, manufacturing exports, world demand and exchange rate. India's economic reforms in the financial sector, FDI, communication so far have helped the services exports, but India needs to focus on supply‐side factors to improve the competitiveness – and thereby volume – of services exports.     

我国外贸竞争力、外国直接投资与实际汇率关系的实证研究

本文基于2005年7月至2008年6月我国外贸竞争力、实际利用外国直接投资与实际汇率的月度数据实证研究了人民币汇率形成机制改革以来我国外贸竞争力、外国直接投资与实际汇率之间的关系,发现三者之间存在一个协整关系,然而只有外贸竞争力是实际汇率的格兰杰原因,实际汇率是实际利用外国直接投资流量水平的格兰杰原因。但是,我国的引资政策和汇率形成机制未能有效提高外贸竞争力,而我国外贸竞争力并不影响实际利用外资的水平,实际利用外资水平也不影响实际汇率的变动。最后根据实证研究结果提出政策建议。     

Export Performance of Brazilian States to Mercosul and Non-Mercosul Partners

ABSTRACT

We investigate the role of the trade-weighted real exchange rate and foreign income on the export performance of Brazilian states, differentiating between Mercosur and non-Mercosur partners. The results indicate that state exports are price and income inelastic. There are differences in the influence of the different trade factors between the two groups of partners. One crucial difference is the relevance of the real exchange rate effect for non-Mercosur partners. This might be associated with the existence of specific rules for Mercosur that can overcome the usual effect of relative competitiveness associated with movements in the real exchange rate.     

Openness and growth: an interpretation of empirical evidence from East Asian countries

This study investigates the effect of openness on economic growth for rapidly growing economies in East Asia in which rapid growth has been accompanied by a persistent openness to world trade. The framework of analysis is a five-variable vector autoregressive model that consists of real output, money supply, real government spending, foreign price shocks, and openness measures. The results do not strongly support the 'new' growth theories in which increasing openness affects long-run growth. For most countries in the sample, fiscal policy shocks as well as foreign price shocks have greater impacts on economic growth than does the openness shock. The results are generally consistent with the view that the role of the government is critical for growth among the East Asian economies.     

China's exports,export tax rebates and exchange rate policy

This paper examines the relationship between China's exports, export tax rebates and exchange rate policy. It offers an explanation for why China's exports continued to rise under RMB real appreciations during the Asian financial crisis. Based on a traditional export demand model, we test our hypothesis that the counteracting effects of China's export tax rebate policy have diminished the effectiveness of real exchange rates in facilitating the resolution of trade imbalances under the current pegged exchange rate regime. We find evidence that RMB real appreciations during the crisis negatively affected China's exports, but the negative effects were mitigated by the positive effects of export tax rebates. We also find evidence of a long‐run relationship between China's exports and the other explanatory variables. The empirical evidence suggests that under the pegged exchange rate regime with limited adjustments, real exchange rate movements alone cannot resolve China's external imbalances. The policy implication of this study is that China needs to redirect its decades‐long export‐oriented development strategy to one that emphasises domestic demand‐oriented development and to replace the current pegged exchange rate regime with a market‐oriented more flexible exchange rate regime.     

提高黑龙江省外贸竞争力的研究

为实现黑龙江老工业基地的振兴,应全面提升经济的开放度和区域外贸竞争力。外贸对拉动全省地区生产总值,促进地区经济增长有重大作用。本文通过分析黑龙江省外贸竞争力的优势与存在的问题,提出了提升黑龙江省外贸竞争力的对策。     

Foreign exchange rate and trade balance dynamics in East African countries

This study investigates the effects of real exchange rate on trade balance in East African countries. In contrast to past studies that have often focused on one country in the region and adopted traditional empirical methods that are subject to shortcomings, the present study employed the ARDL procedure and investigated the issue in 10 East African countries. The main results are as follows. First, real exchange depreciation significantly improves trade balance for four countries in individual country estimations, as well as in panel estimation. Second, the elasticity of trade balance with respect to real exchange rate is inelastic. Elasticity slightly increases after exchange rate liberalization but remains inelastic. Third, significant short-run fall was not found for trade balance, which suggests lack of evidence for J-curve relationship     

汇率、贸易开放度与经济增长:短期波动与长期均衡——基于自回归分布滞后模型的经验研究

文章通过构建自回归分布滞后模型研究了汇率波动情况下贸易开放度与经济增长的长期关系,然后建立误差修正模型对两者之间的短期关系进行了刻画,重点考察了1978-2008年我国贸易开放度与经济增长在不同阶段的影响机制。经验分析结果表明,外商直接投资和贸易开放度对经济增长的短期效应大于长期效应;而人民币实际汇率对于经济增长的效应,则是长期效应大于短期效应。当外商直接投资、贸易开放度和人民币实际汇率造成的短期波动偏离长期的均衡时,经济增长能够通过自动调整趋于稳定。     

贸易自由化福利收益模型和我国服务贸易发展的现实选择

通过构建福利收益模型,将服务贸易自由化和货物贸易自由化的收益进行比较,可得出如下结论:服务贸易自由化比货物贸易自由化的收益大。以发展服务贸易为主,实现服务贸易的自由化是贸易自由化发展的高级阶段,但我国目前的服务贸易发展水平还不具备这种条件。针对我国服务贸易及服务业中存在的问题,本文为提高服务贸易竞争力、促进服务贸易自由化提出了相应的政策建议。     

汇率、国民收入与商品进出口--基于标准国际贸易分类的实证检验

本文在标准国际贸易分类的基础上研究人民币汇率和国民收入与我国商品进出口之间的关系。通过对变量使用平稳性检验与协整分析,我们发现:我国各类商品出口受世界需求水平的影响较大,对实际汇率的弹性存在较大差异;商品进口受我国经济发展水平影响较大,对实际汇率变动的反应与理论预测并不完全一致。文中给出了合理解释。     

The Great Recession of 2008: Impact on the Bangladeshi economy and international business implications

This article examines the current global financial crisis (GFC) and its impact on Bangladesh's economy and discusses international business implications for the country within an institution‐based analytical framework. The article finds that the macroeconomy of Bangladesh has shown remarkable resilience in the face of this massive global crisis, and the impact has been minimal and limited to a moderate slowdown of the economy The country thus could be poised for taking advantage of international business opportunities as the global economy begins to recover. Further, JPMorgan's Frontier Five and Goldman Sachs's Next Eleven classification of Bangladesh indicates enormous potential for growth and development. The article suggests that the Bangladeshi diaspora could serve as a connecting hub so that “brain gain” could be achieved through labor migration and remittances. Strategic alliances among home and foreign firms are also important to the future capacity building of the country. However, strategic management in the form of further institutional, structural, and policy reforms are critical in enabling the country to develop an international‐business‐friendly environment conducive to taking advantage of evolving global opportunities and realizing its full potential. © 2011 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

我国海运服务贸易竞争力影响因素的实证研究

本文基于钻石模型中竞争力影响因素的理论,选取2001²010年我国沿海规模以上港口的外贸货物吞吐量、交通运输业生产总值、货物贸易出口额、远洋运输量以及海运服务贸易开放度等5个指标对我国海运服务贸易竞争力的影响因素进行实证分析。研究表明,国内市场需求的增加和海运开放程度的加大能提高我国海运服务贸易出口额。本文基于实证结果提出提高自有船舶运输比例、调整海运开放策略以及提高海运行业竞争力等对策建议。     

浅谈现代饭店业外汇风险管理

我国加入WTO后,旅游事业呈现了蓬勃发展势头。良好的经济形势在给饭店业带来无限商机的同时也带来了外汇收支管理等问题。尤其是现代饭店业面临着外汇交易、外汇借款、汇率折算等风险。应全面掌握国际市场主要货币汇率、收支状况,正确选择外币币种,适当调整商品价格,采用外汇保值条款等手段加强饭店业外汇管理,减少外汇风险,提高饭店经济效益。     

INTERNATIONAL OUTSOURCING,THE REAL EXCHANGE RATE AND EFFECTIVE DEMAND

We develop a two‐country model of international trade with outsourcing opportunities, and analyze the effects of outsourcing on employment and effective demand under stagnation. Increased outsourcing proves not only to lower employment but also to depreciate the real exchange rate which has the effect of boosting employment. The latter also dominates the former, such that employment and consumption are stimulated. The home and foreign countries respond in opposite ways, however, to the production shift and the real exchange rate adjustment. Furthermore, we find that the effects of outsourcing on consumption are opposite in the presence, and the absence, of unemployment.     

Risk,external adjustment and capital flows

This paper studies the process of external adjustment. I develop an open economy model with endowment and preference shocks that can account for the empirical behavior of real exchange rates, interest rates and consumption in the U.S. and Europe. The model includes cross border holdings of bonds and equity, and financial frictions that impede international risk-sharing. I find that external adjustment following endowment shocks predominantly takes place via trade flows, consistent with the intertemporal approach to the current account. In contrast, preference shocks that change investors' risk aversion induce adjustment via the trade and valuation channels; where the latter includes the effects of unexpected capital gains and loss on existing cross border holdings and changes in the expected future return differentials between foreign assets and liabilities. The model estimates imply that the valuation channel of external adjustment is more important for the U.S. than the trade channel. Consistent with this implication, I show that forecasts of future return differentials contributed most to the volatility of the U.S. net foreign asset position in the post Bretton-Woods era.