现金持有理论及其对公司价值影响的实证研究综述

现金持有决策在公司投融资、分配股利等财务活动中起着重要的作用.本文首先归纳现金持有理论及相关实证检验,然后总结我国学者寻找合适理论解释我国上市公司现金持有政策,最后回顾国内外学者对现金持有与公司业绩和价值关系的实证研究.总结发现,现金持有对公司业绩和价值的影响仍存在争议.     

社会信任与现金持有动态调整:作用机制与调整效果——基于寻租理论的解释

为检验社会信任的道德约束观和道德风险观占优程度,以2007～2017年沪深A股非金融类上市公司为样本,实证检验了社会信任对现金持有动态调整的影响,并深入探究其作用机制与调整效果.研究发现:(1)社会信任降低了现金持有动态调整速度,加大了现金持有偏离程度;(2)管理者会利用社会信任进行寻租,引发道德风险,难以优化企业现金持有结构,从而弱化现金持有动态调整;(3)在非国有企业、内部治理机制不完善的企业中,社会信任降低现金持有动态调整速度更显著;(4)进一步研究动态调整的经济后果发现,现金持有偏离程度越大、经营效率越差,越不利于企业的持续性健康发展.本文丰富了现金持有动态调整的影响因素及经济后果的研究,同时为非正式制度背景下社会信任影响企业现金持有动态调整行为提供了来自寻租理论的新解释.     

多元化战略是否会降低企业现金持有水平——以中国上市公司为例

在复杂多变、竞争异常激烈的外部环境下,企业为满足其交易、预防和投机需求,必须持有一定水平的现金,随着多元化经营越来越被企业采用,企业采取多元化战略是否对企业现金持有水平产生影响,国外研究表明多元化战略会降低企业现金持有水平,然而我国与外国现状与国情有所不用。本文简单阐述了现金持有以及多元化经营的基本概念,然后介绍了多元线性回归模型,并采取多元线性回归模型对2007年-2010年A股上市企业进行了实证分析,并对比了引入和不引入多元化战略的多元线性回归模型的结果,对比发现,实证结论是企业采用多元化战略会降低企业现金持有水平,这一结果与国外的相关研究结论如出一辙。     

宏观政策调整下银企关系与公司现金持有策略

本文用企业获得银行融资贷款的难易程度代替银企关系水平,实证研究银企关系和宏观政策调整是否会影响公司现金持有水平。研究结论显示银企关系密切的公司常常持有更少的现金,反之公司则在货币政策紧缩期间持有更多的现金,这是因为从外部筹集资金的代价过高。这一研究结果符合现金持有的预防性动机理论和融资优序理论。     

现金持有决策:基于中国上市公司的实证研究

现金持有决策是指企业对于高流动性资产的投资决策。企业持有现金的原因在于现金短缺是有成本的。本文基于中国上市公司2000～2009年的数据,运用混合回归模型,分别从企业财务特征、治理结构和外部融资环境等方面考察企业现金持有水平的主要影响因素并进行理论分析。实证结果表明,企业现金持有水平随着企业规模、市账比率、财务杠杆、银行债务、现金替代物以及国有股比例的上升而下降。同时,企业现金周期越长,企业将持有越多的现金。高管持股以及股利支付决策也将使企业现金持有水平上升。分析表明,以银行体系间接融资为主的融资环境对企业现金持有决策具有重大影响。     

现金持有、融资约束与企业价值——基于门槛回归模型的实证检验

文章基于门槛回归模型,对融资约束是否会影响现金及超额现金与企业价值的关系进行实证检验。结果表明,现金及超额现金与企业价值的关系均存在显著的门槛效应。在弱融资约束企业,现金及超额现金的账面价值高于其市场价值,而在强融资约束企业,现金及超额现金的账面价值低于其市场价值,这支持了代理理论和融资约束理论,说明弱融资约束企业滥用现金的代理问题较为严重,现金持有对企业价值具有负向影响,强融资约束企业持有现金,能够抓住更多投资机会,现金持有对企业价值具有正向影响。     

企业现金持有对投资效率影响的实证分析

文章以经济政策不确定性为宏观背景,研究对象聚焦于沪深 A 股 19720 个企业的投资效率状况,以现金持有为核心解释变量,实证检验企业现金持有程度对投资效率的影响力大小。 实证结果显示,企业投资过程中现金持有具有两方面影响,即一般现金持有的增加对企业的投资不足状态作用效果显著,呈现负向相关的影响作用,逐步缓解企业投资不足状态;超额现金持有的增加对企业的过度投资状态作用效果显著,呈现正向相关的影响作用,进一步加剧企业过度投资状态。 文章在此基础上继续引入经济政策不确定这一宏观变量,实证检验发现中国经济政策不确定对基准模型具有正向调节作用。     

浅析公司治理机制对现金持有的价值效应

在不完全的资本市场,企业持有或者获取现金都是有成本的,而这些成本最终由股东承担,这就会影响了股东对企业所持有现金的价值判断.在这种情况下,由于代理问题的存在,企业持有的现金的价值就会受到公司治理机制的影响.本文综合阐述西方学者对公司治理机制对现金持有价值效应研究的发展脉络,并对这些研究进行了简要的评论.     

超额现金持有对投资效率的影响研究

企业投资活动的有效性是企业发展的关键因素,但现阶段我国资本市场发展不完善,信息不对称的存在和委托代理问题的出现,使得很多企业都存在投资效率低的现象。从该角度切入,通过实证研究探索企业在不同生命周期阶段下超额现金持有对投资效率的影响差异。结果表明:在企业成长期,超额现金持有能提高企业的投资效率,而在企业成熟期和衰退期,超额现金持有会降低企业的投资效率。     

经济波动与上市公司现金持有行为关联性分析

公司在不同的现金持有动机下,经济周期波动对公司企业现金持有行为的影响是不一样的.本篇论文以连续10年且持续存在的上市公司为研究对象,实证研究它们的样本数据,结果表明,经济扩张时期,上市公司的现金持有行为体现在减少手中的现金持有量;经济下滑时期,上市公司的现金持有行为体现在增加手中的现金持有量.     

Economic policy uncertainty and cash holdings: Evidence from BRIC countries

This paper examines the effect of Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) on cash holding decisions of firms in BRIC countries. Our focus is on the firms in BRIC countries, a particularly interesting group of countries to consider given their increasingly important role in the world economy. By using firm-level data through the 10 years period of 2006–2015, we find that firms prefer to hold more cash when uncertainty increases after controlling for firm level variables with industry and year fixed effects. The results are robust to alternative control variables, EPU calculations and selection of sub-samples. In addition to the country specific EPU levels, global EPU also has a significant positive impact on corporate cash holdings.     

Corporate cash holdings,uncertainty avoidance,and the multinationality of firms

We examine the relationship between uncertainty avoidance, multinationality and firm cash holdings. We develop several hypotheses from corporate finance and multinational firm theory, positing that cultural factors as well firm multinationality influence corporate cash holdings. In particular, firms in countries with high uncertainty avoidance hold more cash as a way to hedge against undesired states of nature. At the same time, firm multinationality moderates the effects culture has on the firm's holdings of liquid assets. Based on a large panel of firms in fifty countries, we present evidence consistent with these hypotheses. Firms in countries with high levels of uncertainty avoidance tend to hold more cash. Against commonly held views in cash management, the degree of multinationality of the firm is positively correlated with holdings of cash. At the same time, the effect of national culture on firm's cash holdings is lower for multinationals. These results are economically significant.     

Firm exit after distress: differentiating between bankruptcy, voluntary liquidation and M&A

This paper examines firm-level determinants of mature firm exits after economic distress. Using nested logit models and a sample of 6,118 distress-related exits in Belgium, we analyze the type of exit that distressed firms experience. We show that 41% of the firms in our sample exit through a court driven exit procedure (mainly bankruptcy), 44% are voluntarily liquidated and 14% are acquired, merged or split (hereafter M&A). Distressed firm exit follows two distinct stages. First, a firm either decides to exit voluntarily or is forced into bankruptcy, which is the least efficient exit strategy. Compared to bankruptcy, the probability of a voluntary exit increases with higher levels of cash, lower leverage, holding no secured debt and being embedded in a group. If a firm exits voluntarily, it enters a second stage and decides either to exit through voluntary liquidation or through a M&A. Conditional on not going bankrupt, the likelihood of voluntary liquidation compared to M&A increases with higher levels of cash or secured debt, with smaller size and with an absence of group relations. We contribute to the firm exit literature by jointly analyzing three exit types and showing that bankruptcy and voluntary liquidation are fundamentally different exit routes. While voluntary liquidation is an important exit route for distressed firms, most previous studies have failed to distinguish between bankruptcy and liquidation. We hence contribute to the exit literature by showing that bankruptcy, voluntary liquidation and M&A are fundamentally distinct exit routes for distressed firms, driven by different firm level characteristics and following a two-stage process.     

超额现金持有的上市公司特质研究——对我国制造业上市公司的实证分析

超额持有现金的上市公司具有什么特质呢?以我国制造业329家上市公司2004—2006年的数据为整体样本,通过界定超额现金持有上市公司,将整体样本分成超额现金持有和非超额现金持有两个子样本,从公司治理、财务方面设计变量对两个子样本进行比较分析。实证结果表明,与非超额现金持有公司相比,超额持有现金公司负债比率要低,长期业绩会变差,现金股利支付比率低,而股东保护度和管理费用率不存在显著差异。     

Ultimate ownership,risk-taking and firm value: evidence from China

This article investigates the relationship among ultimate ownership, risk-taking and firm value using firm-level data from Chinese companies. The results indicate that dominant ultimate controlling shareholders exacerbate the agency problem. The larger the divergence between ultimate shareholder’s control rights and cash flow rights, the stronger motivation is to reduce corporate risk-taking (CRT) to safeguard private benefits. Furthermore, the presence of a dominant ultimate controlling shareholder is harmful to firm value, and the divergence between its control right and cash flow right has a significantly negative effect on firm value. Corporate risk-taking plays a significant mediating effect between ultimate controlling shareholder and firm value. Based on these results based on theory and practice, we propose a number of practical implications for managers.     

中央与地方国有控股公司现金持有价值分析

文章将政府作为终极控制人下的国有控股上市公司再分为中央政府和地方政府控股公司,在相关的理论定性分析基础上,实证分析了中央与地方国有控股公司现金持有量的价值效应。分析表明,中央与地方国有控股公司的现金持有量的价值效应差异较大,中央政府控制的公司现金持有的市场价值更高。对这种差异形成的解读,除了已有理论对此诠释外,文章认为中央与地方国有控股公司占有资源的禀赋差异也是重要的原因。     

Using Inductive Learning to Predict Bankruptcy

An emerging trend in organizational computing is using information technology to learn decision knowledge from enterprise data. The primary contribution of this study is the presentation of a sound theory and a comprehensive technique for learning the decision model for predicting bankruptcy. The theory is based on the information contained in cash flow components, which is the foundation of valuation theory, and an analytical system that measures the amount of uncertainty in the cash flow information. The approach links a tree-based inductive learning system that relies on the concept of entropy, with an information system based on the cash flow of a firm. A test of the cash flow approach involves the cash flow components for a sample of 99 failed and 99 non-failed companies. The structural instability of cash flow components generated by an inductive learning system is a serious issue for financial analysts. However, this shortcoming is overcome by using a jackknife procedure to develop a global tree that identifies the most important cash flow components. The final global tree found only 3 cash flow components were needed to classify correctly 89% of the companies as either failed or non-failed. Only a few early studies achieved a higher level of predictive accuracy. The 3 significant cash flow components were dividends, net investment, and net operating cash flow. Using the same data, a probit statistical technique generated a 67.5% predictive accuracy. In summary, the inductive learning results indicate that cash flow components are not only a natural tool for explaining the bankruptcy process, but they provide a high level of predictive accuracy.     

Why Do Firms in Customer–Supplier Relationships Hold More Cash?

A firm is in customer–supplier relationships when its business depends on a small number of major customers/suppliers. In this paper, we provide evidence that relationship‐specific investments undertaken by firms in customer–supplier relationships are associated with high cash holdings in these firms. The evidence is consistent with the prediction of Titman's stakeholder theory that a firm relying on relationship‐specific investments maintains a high cash reserve as a cushion to sustain its relationship‐specific investments when negative shocks occur. Our findings suggest that relationship‐specific investments are important determinants of the precautionary motive to hold cash.     

The effects of firm size and firm performance on CEO pay in Canada: A Re-Examination and Extension

Using insights from academic and practitioners' perspectives and recent data, this paper extends the literature by using pay variables that are typically used by practitioners, including those not studied in previous academic research. Consistent with previous findings, firm size, measured by three-year average revenues, has strong effects on CEO pay. However, the relationship is not the same for firms of different sizes. Revenue elasticity is strong among small companies and disappears for medium and large companies. Firm performance, measured by accounting-based measures (return on assets and return on equity), and market-based measures (total shareholder return and shareholder value), have little effects on CEO cash compensation, but strong positive effects on equity compensation. Implications for research and practice are discussed.     

Firm Growth and Liquidity Constraints: A Dynamic Analysis

Using a large unbalanced panel data set of Portuguese manufacturing firms surviving over the period from 1990 to 2001, the purpose of this paper is to examine whether liquidity constraints faced by business firms affect firm growth. We use a GMM-system to estimate a dynamic panel data model of firm growth that incorporates cash flow as a measure of liquidity constraints and persistence of growth. The model is estimated for all size classes, including micro firms. Our findings reveal that smaller and younger firms have higher growth-cash flow sensitivities than larger and more mature firms. This is consistent with the suggestion that financial constraints on firm growth may be relatively more severe for small and young firms. Nevertheless, the same finding can be interpreted in a different way if we consider the more recent literature which interpret the higher investment/cash flow sensitivity of younger and smaller firm in absence of financial market imperfection as the outcome of these firms reaction to the fact that realisation of their cash flows reveals them the direction to go in presence of uncertainty of their growth prospect. Besides, firms that were small and young at the beginning of the sample period exhibited more persistent growth than those that were large and old. Finally, these results have significant policy implications.