Unilateral Liberalisation or Trade Agreements: Which Way Forward for the Pacific?

Empirical results show that, for the Pacific island states, a free trade agreement with developed countries provides more benefits followed by regional trade agreement within the Pacific and then unilateral tariff reduction. While the agricultural sector expands and the manufacturing sector declines in all scenarios, to avoid second‐best outcomes, developed countries need to go beyond the provision of aid for trade/development measures. For developing countries, the way forward with regional trade agreements is to carefully sequence them with regard to the different developed countries involved. This must be accompanied by domestic reform which is necessary but not sufficient for long‐term gains.     

浅析非洲经济一体化的贸易创造与贸易转移效应

在概述战后非洲一体化发展总体状况的基础上,通过构建理论模型,利用实证分析方法,选择南部非洲发展共同体为研究对象对南部非洲发展共同体的贸易创造和贸易转移问题进行探讨,从而为客观评估非洲经济一体化进程中的静态福利效应提供一种参考。研究结果表明,南部非洲发展共同体并没有发生明显的贸易创造及贸易转移效应,成员国从一体化中获得的福利收益是有限的。     

发达国家和发展中国家企业对外直接投资动机--基于文献综述的比较研究

在全球经济一体化背景下,企业对外直接投资行为的兴起激发了国内外学术界对其动机的研究。发展中国家和发达国家由于市场发展程度存在较大的差别,企业对外直接投资动机也大相径庭。通过对比归纳发现,发达国家企业对外直接投资动机较为集中,受东道国因素影响较多并大多有市场推动;而发展中国家企业对外直接投资动机较复杂多样,主要受母国因素影响且政府政策推动具有较大作用。这一比较研究也表明,在我国针对企业对外直接投资经济影响的研究中,应先考虑并区分不同动机企业对外直接投资产生的差异化结果。     

Estimating the impact of trade specialization and trade policy on poverty in developing countries

This paper investigates the impact of trade specialization on poverty. The empirical findings show that in developing countries manufacturing exports contribute to poverty reduction. But agricultural exports have a more significant effect on poverty in low-income countries. The analysis also confirms that trade specialization reduces poverty but under specific trade specialization patterns and policy conditions.     

FDI对东亚区域经济一体化的影响研究

文章通过使用1990～2008年度的数据,利用时间序列分析方法对东亚国家的FDI与区域内投资和贸易一体化的关系进行了详细的实证研究。研究结果表明:长期而言,在区域生产网络机制的作用下,FDI的流入将促进东亚区域内国家(地区)之间的贸易和投资流动,有利于推动东亚区域经济一体化。在当前东亚区域经济一体化进展缓慢的背景下,通过一系列激励措施吸引外资,是促进东亚区域经济一体化发展的不错选择。     

Trade openness,tax reform and tax revenue in developing countries

This article investigates empirically whether the effect of tax reform (involving the progressive replacement of trade tax revenue with domestic tax revenue) in developing countries' tax revenue performance (measured by tax revenue‐to‐GDP ratio) depends on the degree of trade openness of these countries. The analysis has used an unbalanced panel data set of 95 developing countries over the period 1981–2015 and the two‐system GMM approach. Results suggest that tax reform is positively and significantly associated with tax revenue performance in developing countries, with the magnitude of this positive effect increasing as countries experience a higher development level. Additionally, and more importantly, countries that further open up their economies to international trade enjoy a higher positive effect of tax reform on tax revenue than countries that experience a lower degree of trade openness. Therefore, these findings should help dissipate the concerns of policymakers in developing countries that greater openness to international trade would further erode their tax revenue, including by lowering their international trade tax revenue. In fact, the implementation of an appropriate tax reform in the context of greater trade openness would generate higher tax revenue, while concurrently allowing countries to reap the well‐known benefits of international trade.     

Comparative Advantage and the Gains from Financial Trade: A Reappraisal

Emerging market crises have suggested that a national benefit‐cost assessment of external financial liberalisation could well prove unfavourable. This paper re‐examines the principle of comparative advantage in its application to financial trade to seek guidance on measures that might permit a fuller realisation of the potential benefits involved. Drawing a parallel with Balasubramanyam's work on the gains from FDI and international migration we distinguish between those arising in financial trade from the net transfer of capital, and those deriving from the contemporaneous exchange of financial claims or services of equivalent value. In the first interpretation a country's comparative advantage is manifested by its role in ‘intertemporal’ trade (as a borrower or lender). Our alternative emphasis is on the contractual risk‐return characteristics of the financial claims exchanged. This perspective is applied firstly to portfolio diversification gains arising from further international stock market integration. Secondly, price risk management for developing countries in international primary commodity trade is discussed. Both applications imply the need for significant institutional development but could realise approximately contemporaneous gains reminiscent both of those involved in merchandise trade and in the skills and product (or service) flows that Balasubramanyam has emphasised in relation to FDI and international migration.     

中国-东盟区域经济深度一体化——制度环境与制度距离的视角

通过关税的不断减让,中国-东盟区域经济一体化取得了快速发展,但是伴随关税的持续降低,其对贸易的促进作用终究有限。后自贸区时代实现中国-东盟区域经济的深度一体化需要寻求新的突破口。基于一国制度环境及国家间的制度距离会对贸易成本尤其是交易成本产生影响的理论分析,以2002～2009年中国-东盟七国双边贸易的面板数据进行了实证检验。结果表明,制度环境及双边国家间的制度距离对中国-东盟七国间的贸易的确具有显著影响。当前各国间较大的商务制度环境差异意味着后自贸区时代通过加强国家间的双边合作和政策协调,以及自身市场化改革、转型,通过缩小国家间的制度距离进而促进区域经济向深度一体化迈进具有较大的空间。     

资源配置、贸易条件与中国加入AFTA的动因及前景分析

区域经济一体化是国际贸易走向自由化的重要途径,但传统理论中基于资源配置的收益分析并不能解释区域经济一体化的动因。从贸易条件的角度对区域经济一体化的动因进行分析,结果显示,追求贸易条件的改善是发展中国家经济自由化改革中实行区域一体化的一个极其重要的动因。     

Why do developing countries resist global trade agreements?

Abstract

Although the Doha Development Round was launched with much promise for developing countries in 2001, the global trade negotiations have collapsed. One of the reasons for the lack of progress in the negotiation is the developed countries' unwillingness to reduce their enormous farm domestic subsidies and massive agricultural trade distortions. The developing countries' economies are characterized by heavy dependence on farm sector, labor-intensive agriculture, and persistent unemployment. Consequently, rich nations' unfair agricultural policies are detrimental to the well-being of poor exporting countries. This study develops a model incorporating developed countries' domestic and trade policies and developing countries' economic characteristics to illustrate the adverse effects of rich countries' policies on poor countries. We show that elimination of developed countries' policies will increase the world prices of agricultural commodities, which will benefit the farm-dependent developing countries.     

A South–South Survival Strategy: The Potential for Trade among Developing Countries

Trade between developing countries, or South–South trade, has been growing rapidly in recent years following reductions in tariff barriers. However, significant barriers remain, and there is currently reluctance in many developing countries to undertake further reductions, with a preference instead for focusing on opening up access to developed country markets, or maintaining the status quo given that multilateral liberalisation may result in the erosion of preferential access enjoyed by some developing countries. This emphasis on Northern markets represents a missed opportunity for developing countries. To assess this we compare the potential effects of the removal of barriers on South–South trade with the gains from developed country liberalisation and from regional free trade areas within Africa, Asia and Latin America. A general equilibrium model, the Global Trade Analysis Project (GTAP) model, containing information on preferential bilateral tariffs, is used to estimate the impacts. The results indicate that the opening up of Northern markets would provide annual welfare gains to developing countries of $22 billion. However, the removal of South–South barriers has the potential to generate gains 40 per cent larger. The results imply that giving greater emphasis to removing barriers between as well as within continents could prove a successful Southern survival strategy.     

对发展中国家的特殊和差别待遇——以WTO有关区域贸易安排的规定为视角

特殊与差别待遇,是世贸组织处理发展中成员方经济发展问题时必须遵循的一项基本原则。但是,世贸组织有关区域贸易协定的现有规范却缺乏对发展中国家的特殊考虑,这不利于发展中国家参与区域经济合作,促进其经济发展。多哈部长宣言授权成员方在区域贸易协定的谈判中考虑发展问题,但是发达成员和发展中成员在此问题上存在争议,尚未达成共识。发展中国家应当积极参与谈判,争取保留授权条款,同时在24条中引入特殊和差别待遇。作为交换条件,发展中国家可以接受就南南型区域贸易协定向世贸组织进行通知并由其进行审查。     

Impacts of intermediate trade on sector structure

Structural changes, i.e. long-run changes in the agriculture-manufacturing-services-structure, are a key property of growth and development processes with massive impacts on economy and society and are part of actual debates regarding policy in developing and developed economies. While traditional literature has attempted to explain structural changes by using autarkic models, recent literature has emphasised the importance of deriving theories of structural change using open economy settings. We elaborate on the impacts of intermediate trade on sector structure. In particular, we study how import of intermediate products, which is increasingly feasible due to improvements in transport technology and political integration, affects sector structure in a multi-sector growth model with capital accumulation. This topic has not been studied in the previous literature on structural change in open economies, despite the fact that intermediate imports and capital accumulation are central aspects of modern developing and developed economies. We show that the impacts of intermediate trade on sector structure depend on three factors: productivity gains from trade, specialisation in international trade and development stage. Depending on the constellation of these factors, intermediate trade may accelerate, decelerate or have no effect on structural change. Thus, the effects of intermediate trade may vary strongly across countries.     

Assessing the Benefits to Developing Countries of Liberalisation in Services Trade

This paper discusses the potential impacts of services trade liberalisation on developing countries and reviews existing quantitative studies. Its purpose is to distill themes from current literature rather than to advocate specific policy changes. The picture emerging is one of valiant attempts to quantify in the presence of formidable analytical and data problems yielding only a clouded image of likely impacts on trade, consumption, production and welfare emerging to the point that the policy implications of results are not always clear. A central intuition would seem to be that with genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation in services that are seemingly considerably labour‐intensive in delivery, the potential should be there for significant developing country gains from global liberalisation allowing full cross‐border delivery. However, this picture is neither fully endorsed by available studies, neither is it explicitly contradicted. This seems to be the case for a number of reasons. One difficulty with the studies is that the conceptual underpinnings of what determines trade in services and how this trade differs analytically from that of trade in goods (if at all) is an issue prior to assessments of impacts of liberalisation of trade in services on developing countries being discussed. Key issues here are the treatment of mobility for service providers (both firms and workers), and the differing analytical structures needed to analyse individual service items (banking, insurance, telecoms, etc.). Some recent analytical work suggests that liber‐alisation in some service items, such as banking, need not always yield gains, and this contrasts with quantitative studies where analytical structures mirror conventional trade in goods treatments. The discussion and measurement of barriers to service trade in both developed and developing countries is also problematic. One is talking of domestic regulation, entry barriers, portability of providers, competition policy regimes more so than only barriers at national borders, as with tariffs. Both representing and quantifying such barriers raise major difficulties, and these are also spelled out in the paper. Which barriers actually restrict trade, and which do not because they are redundant is one issue, for instance. It is also often misleading to represent barriers in simple ad valorem equivalent form. As a result, numerical modelling work on the effects of service trade barriers which is based on ad valorem equivalent modelling is often not fully convincing. In addition, individual country results vary considerably across studies in ways that it is frequently hard for outsiders to understand. Studies do, however, point towards a tentative conclusion that effects are small and positive for developed and most developing countries if FDI flow changes accompanying service trade liberalisation are excluded from the analysis, but much larger and more variable across countries if they are present. This could be taken to suggest that mode 3 GATS liberalisation (roughly captured in some studies) might be important for developing countries; but mode 4 GATS liberalisation could be even more important given large barriers to labour flows across countries. Thus, if service trade liberalisation is thought of primarily as a surrogate for improved functioning of global factor markets in which more capital flows to developing countries and more labour flows from them to developed countries, then developing countries could benefit in a major way from genuine two‐sided (OECD/non‐OECD) liberalisation. Developing countries fear, however, that in global negotiations on services liberalisation where there is an asymmetry of power that largely one‐sided liberalisation may be the outcome, and their gains will be correspondingly limited. The paper concludes by evaluating econometric studies on linkage between services liberalisation and country growth rules, and briefly discusses some key sectoral issues in health services and transportation.     

基于交易市场的区域物流核心竞争力研究——以临沂区域物流为例

核心竞争力是一个组织能够长期获得竞争优势的能力,在区域经济的发展进程中,加强区域物流的核心竞争力是十分必要的。本文通过对临沂区域物流现状的分析,总结了基于交易市场的区域物流运作模式,提出了通过优化区域物流资源的整合和配置,采用扬长避短的战略管理,突出临沂地方商贸区域物流发达的特点,以物流园区为依托,充分利用有利的地理位置,构建现代商贸物流体系,加快区域物流的发展步伐,更好地服务于地方经济及更大范围的区域经济。     

亚太新双边主义兴起的原因研究——一个政治经济学的分析视角

亚太地区双边贸易协定的兴起与演进形成当代亚太区域经济合作发展的新阶段,其意义和影响日益受到国际社会的普遍关注。本文以政治经济学方法为分析工具,对亚太地区双边主义兴起的动因进行剖析和评价,指出亚太地区双边主义的形成是亚太地区各经济体在当前国际政治经济环境约束下,选择最大化自身利益的贸易政策的必然结果。中国应积极参与建立双边自由贸易区;发挥先发优势,谋求以我为主的区域经济一体化进程;协调国家战略与地区战略,平衡经济利益和政治利益。     

Regulating Supply Side Corruption

Abstract

Doing corruption-free business in developing countries is not easy. Government officials and politicians in developing countries demand monetary gains from multinational companies interested in seeking business deals in their nations. Multinational firms are willing to oblige them since they need the business in developing countries. Such unsavory business practices are extremely difficult to change. However, today more and more countries are concerned about corruption and are trying to combat it. Sociologists, political scientists, and economists have advanced various methods to combat corruption. Mainly, these methods are geared toward reducing the demand for corrupt practices. This paper using the case of the Republic of Kazakhstan suggests controlling the supply of corruption.     

中国与发展中国家贸易摩擦特点与原因分析

发展中国家对我国贸易摩擦迅速增多已经成为中国近年来对外经济贸易遏到的一个突出问题。本文较为全面地剖析了发展中国家对华贸易摩擦的特点与原因,并针对性地提出了我国应对发展中国家贸易摩擦的具体对策。     

China, Japan and South Korea：Trade Integration under Economic Globalization

Economic globalization and regional economic integration are the two majot trends of world economic development. In the practice of regional economic integration, the EU and NAFTA as two successful models, has had a significant impact on world economic pattern. Until July 2007, the global effective free trade agreement （FTA） reached 143. In recent years, FTA among developed and developing countries and regions are on the rise. Within regions, such as ASEAN and Japan, China, South Korea, India, Australia, New Zealand, there have been 14 FTA （including early harvest plan） in operation. To achieve regional economic cooperation in East Asia, the key is to build economic integration among China, Japan and South Korea. Therefore, economic integration among the three is their inevitable choice in the backdrop of economic globalization. While trade integration is the foundation and prerequisite of economic integration, and the former can promote the formation and development of the latter.