基于TOPSIS方法的雾霾污染风险评价

本文采用层次分析法与逼近理想点法评价相结合的方法，研究雾霾污染情景下城市的风险性。首先通过选取敏感因子建立了雾霾污染情景下城市风险的指标并通过层次分析法确定各个指标的权重；利用多目标决策方法中的逼近理想点法来计算选取的16个城市的风险，根据风险计算结果进行排序得到这16个城市关于雾霾污染的风险评价，通过风险计算的结果分析各城市雾霾污染形成的主要原因并对此给出相应的发展对策和建议。     

基于敏感性分析的房地产风险投资多目标决策

房地产风险投资决策是复杂的多目标决策问题,针对其评价指标的属性随项目发展可能的动态变化,提出运用向量夹角余弦建立指标客观性权重给出初始最优选择方案,并运用权重敏感性分析的思想对其进行后最优性分析,最终给出最优方案排序发生变化的指标权重临界值的方法来处理房地产风险决策的多指标评价问题,并通过一个实例指出此类方法应用的可行性。     

返乡农民工创业环境评价体系构建研究——基于层次分析法与模糊评价法

层次分析法往往用于复杂的多目标决策问题,以系统的概念将目标分解为多个目标或准则,进而分解为多指标的若干层次。通过利用层次分析法、模糊评价法构建返乡农民工创业环境评价体系,将定性化问题转化为定量分析,有助于建立更为客观、科学、系统的评价体系。     

基于AHP的南昌市公共事业管理绩效评价研究

AHP分析法系层次分析法的简称．因其将定性与定量分析相结合实现多目标决策而得到广泛运用。本文采取实证分析的办法．选取评价指标．构建指标体系并通过层次分析法确定各指标的权重并进行综合评价,掌握南昌市公共事业发展状况,为科学发展提供参考。     

模糊数学在道路工程质量评价中的应用研究

为分析道路工程质量的各种可量化和不可量化的影响因素,在此将模糊数学的一些理论应用到道路工程质量评价当中,由层次分析来确定不同影响因素的不同权重,根据类因素和次一级因素对上一级目标所产生影响的相对重要程度来形成判断矩阵,经过层次单排序,层次总排序,最后进行综合评价。再按照最大隶属原则来确定道路工程质量的等级。     

基于物流服务供应链模式的集成物流服务商选择的研究

在物流服务供应链模式基础上,对集成物流供应商进行综合评价。这是一个典型的多指标多层次的综合评价问题,并且对有些指标的评价往往带有主观的色彩,采用层次分析法确定各专家和各影响因素的权重,并使用模糊评价的方法计算各候选企业针对各因素的优先分值,以实现对集成物流服务商的排序和选择。     

基于层次分析法的营销风险预警指标权重确定方法

文章针对目前营销风险预警指标权重确定方法中存在的问题,将层次分析法引入到营销风险预警管理中,提出了可操作的确定营销风险预警指标权重的计算方法。     

转型中国社会风险指标体系构建探讨

考虑处于转型时期的中国社会存在着多种风险,提出了广义的社会风险主要表现在经济、政治、文化、社会及生态环境五个方面。利用层次分析法的基本思想确定各类社会风险指标的相对权重,根据权重值的大小进行排序,并由此初步地构建社会风险指标体系。     

基于模糊层次分析法的电子商务风险评价

电子商务风险评价指标体系由目标层、准则层和指标层组成.目标层代表电子商务风险,准则层包括战略规划风险、应用信息技术风险、管理风险、人员风险、环境风险,指标层共有16个指标.任何一种风险分析法均是基于人们对于该种风险的认识程度,因此对电子商务风险的分析模型也是从有关专家及实际从事该项工作人员的经验判断出发,搜寻原始的经验数据,结合科学实用的层次分析法和模糊评价法建立起电子商务风险的模糊层次分析评价模型,得到各风险指标权重,确定各风险因素的模糊隶属关系,进而通过综合分析而得出电子商务风险评价结果.     

市政建设项目评价指标体系研究

随着我国经济建设快速发展,新建项目越来越多,为使有限的资金得到合理地运用,本文在全面分析了市政建设项目特点之后,结合建设项目的经济效益、社会效益、技术性能三个方面,建立了综合评价指标体系,运用层次分析法计算各指标的权重。对定性指标采用专家评分法确定其隶属度,定量指标建立隶属函数用于确定其隶属度,从而得到指标的模糊评价矩阵。通过模糊综合评判方法对各建设项目进行评价排序。     

基于未确知测度的高校融资财务风险预警

融资财务风险是高校融资风险的重要方面,预警评价指标体系基本结构如下:总指标:高校融资财务风险;一级指标:总体财务状况指标、负债风险指标、运行绩效风险指标、发展能力、综合能力;二级指标:流动比率、学校货币资金支付率、负债保障倍数、专项资金占用程度、年来借款总额占总收入的比率、借入款项占总支出的比率、借入款项占货币资金的比率、资产负债率、生均教育事业费支出、人员经费占总经费比率、经费自给率、公用支出比率、固定资产增长比率、资产权益率、事业基金可用率、自筹收入能力比率、年末潜在支付能力.其定性分析指标设定无警、轻警、中警、重警、巨警五个等级,可通过专家打分法得到,定量分析指标可直接计算得到.     

基于四元集成法和熵技术的物流企业风险评价研究

物流企业风险评估关系到企业管理水平的改进和企业持续健康成长,建立良好的风险评价体系和评估改进制度有利于提高企业应对内外环境风险的能力。本文通过四元集成(DHGF)综合评价模型对物流企业的风险进行评估,以确定企业所面临风险的大小,并通过采用经熵技术修正前后的两个指标权重,分别得出企业的风险评价值,然后与企业实际情况相比较,说明了经熵技术处理后的指标权重更有效,从而为物流企业风险水平的确定提供更科学合理的评价方法,并为企业经营管理的改进及横向比较提供依据。     

The underlying mechanism of self-regulatory focus impact on compromise choice

The current research examines the psychological process underlying the differential sensitivity to the compromise effect associated with a distinct self-regulatory focus. In particular, we test two competing hypotheses: one based on the different weights assigned to decision components, and the one that draws on biased perception. This issue is explored via the statistical derivation of decision weights (Study 1), manipulation of the temporal frame of choice (Study 2), and altering the risks associated with decision-making (Study 3). The results of these three studies consistently support the differential weight account: Promotion-focused participants assign greater weight to the desirability (or hedonic value) of the choice outcome, whereas prevention-focused participants place greater weight on the likelihood (or risk) of achieving that outcome. However, perceptions regarding the desirability and the risk of the given choice are similar among those with a distinct self-regulatory focus.     

重量误差对隔振系统性能的影响

从如何确定航空电子设备配重模型件重量精度指标的角度,分析了重量误差对隔振系统性能的影响,提出了解决问题的观点和方法.     

What to do if a dollar is not a dollar? The impact of inflation risk on production and risk management

An entrepreneur faces two types of risk: one from income generation, one from income spending. His income from firm profits is risky due to output price fluctuations and other risks. As a consumer, he is also exposed to inflation risk since he maximizes expected utility of real income. This article focuses on optimal production and risk management decisions of a risk‐averse entrepreneur jointly facing tradable output price risk and untradable inflation risk. Inflation risk applies multiplicatively to the entrepreneur's entire nominal income. Relative risk aversion and the risks' joint distribution determine the effect of introducing a futures market on production. For dependent risks, this effect may be negative if relative risk aversion is above one. Relative risk aversion and the joint distribution also determine optimal risk management with futures contracts where speculation on a real risk premium and cross hedging may be conflicting objectives. © 2002 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 22:371–386, 2002     

Credit Risk,Liquidity, and Bubbles

This paper presents an arbitrage‐free valuation model for a credit risky security where credit risk coexists and interacts with an asset price bubble and liquidity risk (or liquidity costs). As an illustration, this model is applied to determine the fair rate for microfinance loans.     

项目反应理论在实时网络风险评估中的应用

为提高传统网络风险评估方法的准确性,针对大部分网络风险评估方法未考虑攻击能力值的问题,提出了一种基于项目反应理论的实时网络风险评估方法。该方法利用项目反应理论引入的攻击能力值参数以及服务安全等级参数,对传统攻击威胁值和攻击成功概率计算方法进行改进,并采用三标度层次分析法构建出更准确的服务重要性权重,最终获得符合网络环境的评估态势。仿真结果表明：该方法可以提高评估结果的准确度,并实时地绘制更符合真实网络环境的安全态势图。     

Effects of Repatriations Risk on the Choice of Entry Modes Used by U.S. Manufacturing Firms in LDCs

The relationship between repatriations risk and modes of entry continues to interest researchers and practitioners alike. Frequently the structure of functions necessary to develop an efficient and effective international organization are determined by the mode of entry used. Repatriations risk in less developed countries (LDCs) is still a reality especially in light of their increasing debt burden. The objective of this study was to determine whether U.S. manufacturing firms used exporting instead of licensing as a hedge against repatriations risk in developing country markets. Using time-series (1973-86) and cross-sectional data (20 nations), the findings suggest that exporting was used to hedge against repatriations risk in LDCs.     

Assessing risks – challenges posed by the European general product safety directive

The concept of risk appears in a prominent way in the recently revised European Directive on General Product Safety (GPSD). Risk assessment is therefore an important tool for the success of the Directive; the question is how risk assessment should be carried out in a systematic manner in order to meet the aims of the Directive. In this paper, the references in the GPSD concerning the concept of risk are reviewed and compared with reported problems in European risk assessment. Existing guidelines for risk assessment are examined in order to determine what factors determine the consistency of the outcome. This leads to recommendations for a process that could be followed in order to make risk assessment successful in the context of the GPSD. On the basis of existing guidelines for risk assessment, criteria are formulated with which methods of risk assessment should comply. A stepwise process is proposed in order to develop a common method of risk assessment that can be applied in Europe to support the GPSD. The requirements for risk management in the new GPSD are rather and lack specification, both for producers and for enforcement authorities. The Directive further refers to the need to develop non-binding guidelines in due course. Sources of different outcomes of the risk assessment process are outlined in this paper as well as possibilities to achieve a more consistent basis for decisions, more uniformity and transparency. These are essential conditions if one wishes to avoid both undue trade barriers and unsafe products on the market. A leading role for the European Commission seems necessary to make sure that the intentions of the GPSD are accomplished.     

Generalized Ordered Weighted Reference Dependent Utility Aggregation Operators and Their Applications to Group Decision-Making

To quantify the influence of decision makers’ psychological factors on the group decision process, this paper develops a new class of aggregation operators based on reference-dependent utility functions (RUs) in multi-attribute group decision analysis. RUs include S-shaped RU and non-S-shaped RU. Each RU affords a framework where the psychological factors explicitly enter the decision problem via the basic utility function, reference point and loss aversion coefficient. Under the general framework, we derive a generalized ordered weighted S-shaped RU proportional averaging (GOSP) operator and a generalized ordered weighted non-S-shaped RU proportional averaging (GONSP) operator, respectively. The GOSP operator implies the risk attitude of the DM for relative losses is risk-seeking, while GONSP operator indicates the risk attitude in this case is risk-averse. As a special case, GONSP operator can degenerate into GOWPA operator which means that the attitude of the DM is risk-neutral. Each operator satisfies the desirable properties of general operator, i.e., monotonicity, commutativity, idempotency and boundedness. Furthermore, we consider hyperbolic absolute risk aversion (HARA) function as the basic utility function, and define an S-shaped HARA and a non-S-shaped HARA utility functions. Based on the two new RUs, we propose GOSP–HARA operator and GONSP–HARA operator. Every operator covers many existing aggregation operators. To ascertain weights of such operators, the paper builds an attribute-deviation weight model and a DMs-deviation weight model. Based on these RU operators and weight models, an approach is addressed for solving multiple attribute group decision-making problem. At last, an example is provided to show the feasible of our approach.