基于VAR模型的中国出口导向经济增长假说检验

由于数据结构、计量方法和变量选择的不同,有关ELG(出口导向型增长)假说的研究得出了不同的结论。系统分析FDI、出口贸易和经济增长的关系,将FDI纳入VAR模型中检验ELG假说,结果发现:中国是出口导向型经济增长,每增长1%的出口贸易开放度引发长期经济增长0.83%,出口贸易开放度是影响中国经济增长波动的主要因素,它对经济增长具有递增的促进作用;FDI具有持续提高中国出口贸易度的效应,从而促进中国的长期经济增长,FDI是引发中国出口贸易度提高和经济增长的Granger原因。     

Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 1

The economic development and growth literature contains extensive discussions on relationships between exports and economic growth. One debate centres on whether countries should promote the export sector to obtain economic growth. An abundant empirical literature on this export-led growth (ELG) hypothesis has followed. We aim to contribute to this literature in two ways. In this paper, part 1, we provide a comprehensive survey of more than 150 export-growth applied papers. We describe the changes that have occurred, over the last two decades, in the methodologies used empirically to examine for relationships between exports and economic growth, and we provide information on the current findings.The last decade has seen an abundance of time series studies that focus on examining for causality via exclusions restrictions tests, impulse response function analysis and forecast error variance decompositions. Our second contribution is to examine some of these time series methods. We show, in part 2, that ELG results based on standard causality techniques are not typically robust to specification or method. We do this by reconsidering two export-led growth applications – Oxley’s (1993) study for Portugal, and Henriques and Sadorsky’s (1996) analysis for Canada. Our results suggest that extreme care should be exercised when interpreting much of the applied research on the ELG hypothesis.     

Pakistan's agricultural exports,determinants and its potential: an application of stochastic frontier gravity model

The most important and imperative objective of the developing nations is rapid economic growth and exports are generally considered as an engine for economic growth. Being an agro-based economy, agriculture exports play pivotal role not only in economic growth but also in socioeconomic uplifting. This study aims at evaluating main determinants of agricultural exports of Pakistan by applying stochastic frontier gravity model over the period of 1995–2014 for a sample of 63 countries. In addition, the study also analyzes whether there is any untapped export potential between Pakistan and the trading partners in agriculture sector. The results confirm the consistency of gravity model for agriculture exports of Pakistan. Likewise, the estimates also point out that bilateral exchange as well as tariff rates also effect agriculture exports. The study has also incorporated the effect of common border, common culture, colonial history and preferential trading agreements by including their respective dummies. The study confirms the significance of each factor, except common language, with their respective magnitude. Moreover, technical efficiency estimates reveal that Pakistan has great export potential with neighboring, Middle Eastern and European countries.     

Causality nexus of exports,FDI and economic growth of the ASEAN5 economies: evidence from panel data analysis

This paper analyzes the causal relationships between exports, FDI and economic growth among the ASEAN5 countries. We have used a three-stage procedure based on unit root, co-integration and causality tests applied to the panel data from 1981 to 2013. The results reveal that there is a bi-directional causal relationship between FDI and growth in the long run, while there is a unidirectional causal relationship from FDI to exports in the short run. Our results also confirm that the export-led growth (ELG) and FDI-led growth hypotheses hold true in the long and short run. To reinforce the FDI inflows, authorities should continue the progressive reduction of barriers, and increase the sophistication of quality exports to compete in the global market. This paper is the first of its kind to analyze the role of both FDI and exports in the ASEAN5 economies using panel analysis.     

2002-2003年我国对外贸易形势回顾与展望

2002年前3季度我国对外贸易，特别是出口保持强劲的增长势头，这得益于我国国民经济持续稳定发展和加入世界贸易组织带来的正面效应。展望2003年，国内外经济形势总体上相对有利，但各种不确定因素也不少。预测我国2003年的进出口增长分别在15％、16％左右。我国应积极扩大出口、提高国际竞争力、搞好贸易配套措施、积极应对贸易保护主义和反倾销。     

中国进出口贸易对经济增长方式转变的影响分析

文章基于中国1980-2010年GDP和进出口的相关数据对中国进出口贸易和经济运行的轨迹进行分析,测算了外贸依存度、贡献率和拉动度三个指标。运用协整理论和格兰杰因果关系检验方法对中国进出口贸易与经济增长的关系进行实证分析。结果表明中国经济增长与出口之间是正相关的关系,出口增长对经济增长具有明显的促进作用:出口每增长1%,中国GDP将增长约0.714%;同时,经济增长与进口之间也是正相关的关系,弹性为0.0286,进口每增长1%,中国GDP将增长约0.0286%。因此,可以看出中国进出口贸易的增长都促进经济的增长。     

Assessing Dynamics of Palm Oil Import Demand: The Case of Six Asian Countries

This article uses annual data to investigate the palm oil import demand in selected Asian countries (India, China, Japan, Bangladesh, Korea, and Pakistan) through using the autoregressive distributed lag (ARDL) technique. The findings of the study show that the palm oil and substitute oils prices and the national income of the importing countries are significant determinants of palm oil demand across the six models. Other factors such as biofuel mandate, trade policies, and exchange rate also proved to be important factors affecting import demand for palm oil in some of these countries.     

外商直接投资对经济增长的影响分析

近年来,外商直接投资作为国际化经济的显著特征之一日益发展。它作为外资企业谋求经济利益的主要经济活动之一,与贸易并行的国际经济活动的一部分。以中国、巴基斯坦及日本为例,利用宏观经济数据,用计量经济模型,定量比较分析外商直接投资对经济增长的影响。结果表明:外商直接投资与贸易、人力资本等因素促进中国和巴基斯坦的经济增长,但是促进效果不同。     

Productivity and externalities: models of export-led growth

In developing countries, successful export-led growth (ELG) industrialization has been associated with rapid structural change and productivity growth. There are major difficulties in explaining this performance using a standard neoclassical growth model. To develop a more satisfactory framework, we start from empirical and theoretical work with models incorporating externalities. We develop a simple analytical model with an export externality that captures the large increase in both total factor productivity and trade share associated with ELG. A second model is developed to decompose growth into various components: (i) factor accumulation, (ii) a factor reallocation effect from moving factors from low to high productivity sectors, (iii) an export externality effect arising from exporting light and heavy manufactures and (iv) an import externality effect arising from importing capital goods (heavy manufactures). The second model is implemented with data for an archetype semi-industrial country. In addition to accounting for the higher total factor productivity growth observed in countries pursuing ELG strategies, the model captures the patterns of structural change experienced by such countries better than simpler neoclassical models without disequilibrium features or externalities.     

Dynamic causality testing for EKC hypothesis,pollution haven hypothesis and international trade in India

This study examines the causality relationships between foreign direct investment (FDI), economic growth (GDP) and CO₂ emissions along with the level of trade (exports and imports) taking place in India. The study uses data obtained from World Development Indicators (WDI) of World Bank Group for the period 1982–2013. The study employed the dynamic multivariate Toda-Yamamoto (TY) approach that uses the modified Wald (MWALD) test. Among the major findings of the study are: the existence of both Pollution Haven Hypothesis and Environmental Kuznets Curve (EKC) hypothesis in India. The other findings of the study are: FDI is causing exports; exports are causing imports; imports are causing CO₂ emissions; and finally CO₂ emissions and GDP are causing each other. This finding concludes mainly two things. First, India imports more of pollution-intensive manufactured goods. Second, FDI is causing GDP in India but through CO₂ emissions.     

Asymmetric effects of exchange rate movements on traditional and modern services exports: Evidence from a large emerging economy

The service sector in India has emerged as the ‘new engine of growth’ with an increasing share in output and exports. In this paper we analyse the effect of real exchange rate movements on service exports of India, incorporating goods exports, financial development, FDI inflows, world demand and the role of globalization as drivers. We find that while traditional service exports are negatively and significantly affected by the real exchange rate movements, the modern service exports are negatively but not significantly affected. By applying the asymmetric cointegration approach, the results also confirm the non-existence of any asymmetric relationship between the real exchange rate and service exports in India. Further, the results also show that the supply augmenting and demand-side factors are more dominant than the exchange rate to affect service exports from India.     

The Effect of Corruption on Exports and Imports in Latin America and the Caribbean

International trade, in particular exports and imports, are regarded as important factors that can increase the economic development of the Latin American and Caribbean (LAC) countries. However, little is known whether the ability of these countries to strengthen their global positions in trade can be affected by the pervasiveness of local corruption. The objective of this study is to analyze the impact of corruption on exports and imports in LAC countries. Our empirical results from the gravity model indicate that local corruption strongly reduces exports in the region. Thus, we conclude that LAC would be able to achieve more export growth if corruption in the region was effectively reduced.     

扩大内需与中国制造业出口结构优化:基于“母市场效应”理论的研究

中国过往低价竞争的畸形出口遇到了阻碍,因而应扩大内需,但中国经济的增长还应是内外并举的,内需拉动增长和出口拉动增长并不矛盾,出口拉动经济增长的政策并未过时,中国的就业等压力也不允许出口大幅被替代,我们要的是在内需的扩大中寻找中国制造业出口的新优势,同时优化出口结构,而不是排挤或替代出口。本文利用"母市场效应"理论,通过对中国制造业各部门对外贸易"母市场效应"存在性的检验,从理论上和实证上证明了扩大内需政策会导致中国制造业出口结构优化。     

Export-led growth: a survey of the empirical literature and some non-causality results. Part 2

This paper continues the investigation of Giles and Williams (2000) on export-led growth (ELG). In the first part, we surveyed the empirical export-led growth literature; it was evident that Granger non-causality tests are commonly applied as a test for ELG. In this paper, we explore the sensitivity of the test for exclusions restrictions often used as the Granger non-causality test for ELG by reconsidering two applications: Oxley's (1993) study for Portugal and Henriques and Sadorsky's (1996) analysis for Canada. We focus on the robustness of the method adopted to deal with non-stationarity, including the choice of deterministic trend degree. We show that different noncausality outcomes are easy to obtain, and consequently we recommend that readers interpret the empirical ELG literature with care. Our analysis also highlights the importance of examining the robustness of Granger non-causality test results to avoid spurious outcomes in applications.     

我国对“一带一路”沿线国家出口态势浅析

"一带一路"倡议的实施不仅改善了外部发展环境,更是成为新常态下外贸提质增效的战略支撑。笔者基于我国对"一带一路"沿线国家的出口数据分析,揭示三大态势:一是初级产品与工业制成品出口双增长,但制成品出口中沿线国家所占份额趋于稳定,而初级产品出口中沿线国家占比不断上升;二是工业制成品中劳动密集型产品出口下滑而高新技术产品出口增势明显;三是对东盟出口中间品与进口最终消费品保持较快增长。进一步分析表明,上述三大态势缘自"一带一路"背景下我国对外直接投资的发展、经济增长方式的转型以及东亚分工体系的调整。     

Measuring the Impact of China's Export Growth on its Asian Neighbours

The rise of China as an economic power has led to concern in many Asian counties that this development poses a threat to their ability to export. The empirical support for this remains inconsistent, however. One explanation for these inconsistencies includes biases that follow from the use of a gravity model specified in an a‐theoretical manner. We study the effect of the Chinese exports growth using the empirical framework outlined by Baldwin and Taglioni (2006). We report evidence of a positive relationship between Chinese and its Asian neighbours’ exports, with countries with greater endowments of human capital benefiting most from this growth.     

The income inequality,financial depth and economic growth nexus in China

Income inequality has increased in China despite rapid economic growth. Income inequality could impinge on future development, leading to social tension or political instability. Our study investigates the short-run and long-run relationship between three important macroeconomic indicators—income inequality, economic growth and financial depth. We utilise a two-step procedure of ARDL bounds and Granger causality for the analysis. The bounds test indicates the presence of a cointegrating relationship between income inequality, financial depth and economic growth in the long run. In the second step, we utilise the Granger causality approach. Results show a bidirectional causality between financial depth-growth and a unidirectional causality between inequality-growth in the short run. In the long run, results reveal that growth and financial depth determine Gini. Our findings provide support for the inequality-widening effect due to economic growth and higher credit provided to the private sector. We find no evidence of inequality-narrowing or income-equalising effect in the long run for the period of study. It is possible that the government's inclusive growth policies which started less than a decade ago have not taken effect for us to capture the inverted U-shape income equalising effect significantly.     

Software Exports from India: An Econometric Exploration

The study has applied auto regressive distributed lag approach to examine determinants of software exports from India. The results suggest that in short- and long-run openness, human capital measured by higher education enrollment, and policy measures executed by the Government of India have played decisive role in endorsing software exports from India. In the short run, foreign direct investment and gross domestic product of high-income Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development countries helped to improve software exports from India. But real effective exchange rate has little impact on software exports. There is a stable long-run relationship among variables and supports the hypothesis of learning by exporting.     

The African Growth and Opportunity Act and growth in sub‐Saharan Africa: A local projection approach

The African Growth and Opportunity Act (AGOA) is intended to increase exports and economic growth in sub‐Saharan Africa by providing trade preferences to eligible countries. While previous research has generally found a positive relationship between AGOA and exports, no previous research has investigated the relationship between AGOA and economic growth. We explore the dynamic relationship between AGOA and economic growth in sub‐Saharan Africa by applying the local projection method (American Economic Review, 95, 2005 and 161) to estimate impulse responses. We find that a country's becoming eligible for AGOA preferences is associated with higher growth rates in the future, but that this effect may not be immediate, highlighting the importance of exploring the dynamic relationship between AGOA and growth.     

Export‐led growth and its determinants: Evidence from Central and Eastern European countries

In this study, we assess the importance of exports and global value chain (GVC) participation for economic growth. Using novel methods and an extensive data set, we decompose GDP growth in the Central and Eastern European countries (CEECs) to show that in a large part of the period of transition and integration with the EU, exports have played a predominant role in shaping economic growth. We also show that exports have been the major factor driving the convergence of the CEECs with their advanced counterparts. We employ panel methods to analyse the determinants of growth of exported value added and show that the major growth drivers in the analysed period of 1995–2014 are GVC participation, imports of technology and capital deepening.Jel classificationC23, F21, O33