The Payoff to America from Globalisation

This article summarizes the economic payoff to the United States from its postwar trade opening and estimates the potential future gains from more opening going forward. To quantify these gains, we survey different methodologies and estimates. We find that trade opening since World War II has added between $800 billion to $1.4 trillion to the US economy, or about $7,000 to $13,000 per household. More speculative estimates of the potential additional gains from removing the rest of US trade barriers range from $400 billion to $1.3 trillion, or about $4,000 to $12,000 per household. Since trade opening permanently raises national income, these gains are enjoyed annually. Trade opening inevitably entails adjustment costs. We estimate that the lifetime cost of all worker dislocations that have been triggered by expanded trade in the United States could be as high as $54 billion, although probably less. The permanent gains from past and potential liberalization easily swamp the modest sums necessary to alleviate the temporary pains of adjustment. In the future as in the past, free trade can significantly raise income – and quality of life – in America.     

The welfare effects of free trade agreements in quantitative trade models: A comparison of studies about Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership

We compare different methodological approaches to predicting the welfare effects of trade policy experiments. We focus on studies that estimate the economic effects of the Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership (TTIP). Methodologically, the studies can be divided into those employing computable general equilibrium (CGE) models and structural gravity (SG) models. We compare and critically discuss differences in the estimated trade cost reductions and in the economic models employed, and how these can explain the relatively wide range of economic effects found in the different TTIP studies. We conclude that reasonable estimates of the welfare effects for the TTIP partners are between 0.5% and 2%.     

Putting Canada in the penalty box: Trade and welfare effects of eliminating North American Free Trade Agreement

Three years ago, very few economists would have imagined that one of the newest and fastest growing research areas in international trade is the use of quantitative trade models to estimate the economic welfare losses from dissolutions of major countries' economic integration agreements (EIAs). In 2016, "Brexit" was passed in a UK referendum. Moreover, in 2019, the existence of the entire North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA) is at risk if the US withdraws—a threat President Trump has made if the proposed US–Mexico–Canada Agreement is not passed by the US Congress. We use state‐of‐the‐art econometric methodology to estimate the partial (average treatment) effects on international trade flows of the six major types of EIAs. Armed with precise estimates of the average treatment effect for a free trade agreement, we examine the general equilibrium trade and welfare effects of the elimination of NAFTA (and for robustness US withdrawal only). Although all the member countries' standards of living fall, surprisingly the smallest economy, Mexico, is not the biggest loser; Canada is the biggest loser. Canada's welfare (per capita income) loss of 2.11% is nearly two times that of Mexico's loss of 1.15% and is nearly eight times the US' loss of 0.27%. The simulations will illustrate the important influence of trade costs—international and intranational—in contributing to the gains (or losses) from an EIA's formation (or elimination).     

Important Dimensions in Ocean Freight Services

Abstract

This paper examines the criteria used by organizational buyers in their choice of suppliers of shipping services for ocean freight transport so widely used in international trade. The study was conducted in Singapore which is known for its heavy reliance on international trade as well as for its high ranking container port facilities. Based on a survey of shipping managers in a cross section of business organizations in Singapore, the study identifies important factors in the choice of a shipping line selected on their heaviest used export route for their outgoing goods. It also provides buyers' evaluation of the preferred carrier on the same attributes to examine the performance gaps in the services offered by the line. The findings thus provide a bench mark for the shipping industry and points toward areas of emphasis in the service strategies of the shipping lines.     

Administrative barriers to trade

We build a model of administrative barriers to trade to understand how they affect trade volumes, shipping decisions and welfare. Because administrative costs are incurred with every shipment, exporters have to decide how to break up total trade into individual shipments. Consumers value frequent shipments, because they enable them to consume close to their preferred dates. Hence per-shipment costs create a welfare loss.We derive a gravity equation in our model and show that administrative costs can be expressed as bilateral ad-valorem trade costs. We estimate the ad-valorem equivalent in Spanish shipment-level export data and find it to be large. A 50% reduction in per-shipment costs is equivalent to a 9 percentage point reduction in tariffs. Our model and estimates help explain why policy makers emphasize trade facilitation and why trade within customs unions is larger than trade within free trade areas.     

Impact of the WTO on Agricultural and Food Policies

Most studies on the impact of WTO agreements on policies are ex ante simulations or focus on trade effects. We estimate ex post the impact of the WTO on agricultural policies, including both the total transfers by the policies and the policy instruments used, in particular their market distortions. We use OECD data on total support and instrument choice in agricultural policy. Our empirical analysis provides evidence that the WTO did not cause a significant reduction in the total amount of support to agriculture but that it caused a significant shift from distortionary to less distortionary instruments.     

Intra-industry trade and heterogeneity in pollution emission

This paper develops a model of intermediate goods firms heterogeneity with respect to a pollution parameter to analyze the effects of intra-industry trade on final good output, pollution and welfare. By focusing on intra-industry trade we consider trade between similar countries. We analyze both trade between developed countries, and trade between developing countries. In our model, final good producers pay an environmental tax on the total pollution emitted in their country. Therefore, final good producers determine the overall level of pollution by demanding ‘cleaner’ or ‘dirtier’ intermediate goods. To focus on intra-industry trade we consider only intermediate goods firms trade. We analyze three scenarios: closed economy; open economy with no impediments to trade; and open economy with transportation cost. Our main findings are: i. a developing country closed to trade faces lower final good output and higher total pollution and is thus worse off than a developed country; ii. countries are better off under trade than under autarky, regardless of their development level; and iii. an open economy with low transportation costs are better off than an open economy with no impediments to trade.     

Free Trade Agreements In the Americas: Are the Trade Effects Larger than Anticipated?

This paper argues that the ‘competitive liberalisation’ of national governments of the past several decades reflects national governments’ expectations of larger trade impacts from regional economic integration agreements (EIAs) than typical ex ante economic models have suggested. Moreover, we show that previous (typically cross‐section) ex post empirical evaluations of the effects of EIAs on trade have seriously over‐ or underestimated the effects, partly due to ignoring the (endogenous) self‐selection bias of country pairs into EIAs. Accounting for this bias, we find that economic integration agreements in the Americas have had much larger impacts on trade over the period 1960–2000 than previously found and the ex post estimates are less fragile than those in earlier cross‐section analyses. The results shed further light on understanding the causes and consequences of the growth of regionalism in the world.     

The Uruguay Round and air pollution: estimating the composition,scale and technique effects of trade liberalization

This paper develops a methodology to estimate the environmental impact of the Uruguay Round trade agreement. The impact is estimated in terms of five air pollutants for both developed and developing countries/regions. The methodology estimates environmental Kuznets curves and uses these in conjunction with FranÇois et al.'s (1995) estimates of Uruguay Round income gains and sectoral production changes, together with sectoral pollution intensities from Hettige et al. (1994). In this manner, composition, scale and technique effects of the Uruguay Round on air pollution are estimated. The monetary cost/benefit associated with the pollution changes is also estimated. Results indicate that emissions of all five pollutants are predicted to increase in developing and transition regions as a result of the Uruguay Round, whilst in developed regions emissions of three pollutants decrease and two increase. The results also suggest that the environmental impact will be considerably greater if the Uruguay Round affects the rate of economic growth.     

The influence of multi-channel pricing strategy on price fairness and customer confusion

ABSTRACT

Multi-channel retailers face the challenge of coordinating marketing variables across their channels. In this respect, one of the main issues arising is whether to differentiate or integrate prices. Our study examines the impact of three multi-channel price differentiation instruments on perceived price fairness, customer confusion, and their consequences. In a scenario-based online experiment, we use a 2 x 2 × 2 between-subjects design and manipulate product price differentiation, online promotion and online shipping fees. The results indicate that price differentiation has an impact on fairness evaluations and customer confusion. Product price differentiation and online promotion are perceived as more unfair and lead to more confusion than price parity. Price fairness perceptions of shipping fees depend on product price differentiation. Customers perceive shipping fees as fairer than no shipping fees when prices are cheaper online but perceive shipping fees as less fair when prices are integrated. These results suggest that customers expect a consistent consideration of channel cost advantages and disadvantages and that shipping fees might serve as a cue for customers to consider the retailer’s channel costs. We further show that price fairness and customer confusion mediate effects of pricing instruments (in particular online promotion) on attitudinal and behavioral consequences.     

A meta‐analysis of the indirect impact of foreign direct investment in old and new EU member states: Understanding productivity spillovers

In this paper, we summarise, combine and explain recent findings from firm‐level empirical literature focusing on the indirect impact of foreign direct investment (FDI ) on economic performance, measured as productivity, in the Enlarged Europe. We have reviewed 52 quantitative studies, released between 2000 and 2015 and codified 1,133 estimates. We run a regression of regressions which measures the strength of the FDI –productivity relationship. Taking advantage of large number of high‐quality studies on FDI and its role in explaining the growth in firms’ productivity in Europe, we adopt recent meta‐regression analysis methods—funnel asymmetry and precision estimate tests and precision‐effect estimate with standard errors —to explain the heterogeneous impact of FDI . This paper assesses the country‐specific impact of FDI on firms’ performance, after taking publication selection bias, econometric modelling and the individual studies’ characteristics fully into account. Our results show that on average FDI has a positive indirect impact on productivity. The impact is especially significant in selected European countries, and we interpret this as a sign of better absorptive capacities in those countries.     

Estimating the effects of free trade agreements on international trade flows using matching econometrics

This paper provides the first cross-section estimates of long-run treatment effects of free trade agreements on members' bilateral international trade flows using (nonparametric) matching econometrics. Our nonparametric cross-section estimates of ex post long-run treatment effects are much more stable across years and have more economically plausible values than corresponding OLS cross-section estimates from typical gravity equations. We provide plausible estimates of the long-run effects of membership in the original European Economic Community (EEC) and the Central American Common Market (CACM) between 1960 and 2000 and the estimates confirm anecdotal reports of these agreements' effectiveness.     

Privatisation and the unusual case of Belarusian accession to the WTO

The accession negotiations of Belarus to the WTO are unusual since, due to its obligations in the Eurasian Economic Union, WTO accession is not expected to impact its tariffs or formerly substantial trade‐distorting agricultural subsidies. Nonetheless, we estimate that WTO accession will increase welfare by 9.9% of consumption in Belarus. We show that inclusion of: (i) foreign direct investment; (ii) reduction in non‐discriminatory barriers against services providers; and (iii) our model with imperfect competition and endogenous productivity effects together produce estimated gains eleven times larger than a model of perfect competition with only cross‐border trade in services. Our analysis is enabled by our production of a data set on both discriminatory and non‐discriminatory barriers in services and their ad valorem equivalents. Based on a new data set on labour productivity by sector and type of ownership, in our central model, we estimate that privatisation will increase welfare by 35.8% of consumption. We find substantial variance in the estimated gains from privatisation depending on model assumptions, but all the estimates of the impacts of privatisation indicate substantial welfare gains.     

Using survey data to assess the distributional effects of trade policy

This paper develops a method to estimate the general equilibrium distributional effects of trade policies using household survey data. Trade reforms cause the domestic prices of traded goods to change and this, in turn, triggers a series of general equilibrium effects. Among these, I estimate the impacts of trade on the prices of traded goods, non-traded goods, and wages. By combining the estimates of the consumption impacts and the labor income impacts, I am able to assess how trade policies affect households across the entire range of the income distribution. An application of the procedure to the study of the distributional effects of Mercosur shows that the average poor and middle-income family in Argentina has benefited from the trade agreement.     

Trade Liberalisation,Exit, and Output and Employment Adjustments of Australian Manufacturing Establishments

This paper investigates three potential sources of Australia’s manufacturing productivity gains from trade liberalisation in the mid‐1990s: the exit of inefficient establishments, economies of scale, and the reduction in x‐inefficiency via employment reduction. We use manufacturing establishment level data and exploit the intersectoral variation in the effective rates of assistance (ERA) to see how businesses adjusted to trade liberalisation during the period. We find the documented productivity gains to be mostly accounted for by the reduction in x‐inefficiency through employment shedding in industries experiencing a high degree of trade liberalisation. We find little evidence that the exit of inefficient establishments in highly liberalised industries contributes to productivity gains. In fact, we find that the more productive establishments are more likely to exit, perhaps reflecting product switching by these businesses to make more profitable use of inputs. Similarly, there does not appear to be a strong relationship between the extent of trade liberalisation and output adjustments. However, we do find indicative evidence of an overall productivity‐enhancing effect through economies of scale. These findings suggest that, at least for the case of Australia, the ease of making employment adjustments can be crucial for policies such as trade liberalisation to have the desired effect. In addition, trade liberalisation may provide incentives for domestic producers to seek more profitable use of their inputs and to move further downward along their cost curves. We think further studies assessing the productivity gains from product switching and economies of scale effects in both liberalised and non‐liberalised industries and focusing on the interplay between labour market policy and firm adjustments would be valuable.     

How does import processing time impact export patterns?

We examine how import processing time, which is one of the major obstacles in international trade, affects export patterns at the establishment level. Investigating the effect of such time costs on export patterns reveals how smoothness or sluggishness in operations at one stage affects all stages in an international production network. We first discuss the effects of import processing time on exports, export shipment frequency and exports per shipment from a theoretical standpoint. We employ highly detailed customs data for Thailand from 2007 to 2011 to empirically investigate our theoretical predictions. Import processing time is measured using the difference between the dates on which import shipments arrive in ports and when they were released from the container yard. Results suggest that longer import processing times reduce total exports, particularly as a result of decreasing export frequency; this testifies to the importance of time costs in international trade. It is also revealed that negative effects of import processing time on exports per shipment appear in some specific instances, such as in the case of sea transportation. These results imply that the time spent in one stage has significant effects on both upstream and downstream stages in international production networks.     

Impact of Environmental Regulations on Trade in the Main EU Countries: Conflict or Synergy?

In an increasingly integrated world with declining trade barriers, environmental regulations can have a decisive role in shaping countries’ comparative advantages. The conventional wisdom about environmental protection is that it comes at an additional cost on firms imposed by the government, which may erode their global competitiveness. However, this paradigm has been challenged by some analysts. In particular, Porter and van der Linde argue that pollution is often associated with a waste of resources and that more stringent environmental policies can stimulate innovations that may overcompensate for the costs of complying with these policies. This is known as the Porter hypothesis. While there is a broad empirical literature on the impact of trade on environment, the empirical literature on the impact of environmental regulations on trade flows is relatively scarce, very heterogeneous and presents mixed results. The innovative feature of this paper is its attempts to estimate, in a gravity setting, augmented with a proxi of environmental stringency, the impact of three major multilateral environmental agreements (MEAs) on 15 EU countries’ bilateral exports. According to our estimates, in the period 1988–2008, to be member of MEAs had a positive average impact on EU‐15 bilateral exports. This evidence can be partly explained by a possible trade diversion effect with respect to countries that did not sign MEAs and a corresponding trade creation effect among members of the environmental agreements. Furthermore, evidence coming from interaction effects estimates seems to show that for exporting countries, having signed the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change and the Montreal agreements partly mitigates (by the amount of the estimated coefficient) the negative impact of having a relatively more stringent environmental regulation on bilateral trade. This result could have important policy implications for the future international trade–environmental negotiations.     

Growth Potential for Maritime Trade and Ports in Europe

Global economic development in recent decades has been characterised by a rapidly progressing intensification in world trade and the international division of labour. As a result of the expansive development of international merchandise trade, cargo shipping has been one of the fastest growing economic sectors. The progressive global integration processes, the future reduction in trade barriers and the expected increase in prosperity in numerous regions of the world will also call for a marked expansion in world trade and cargo shipping. This designates maritime logistics as an economic sector with favourable perspectives for development. What growth rates can be expected for EU maritime trade? And what impact will these have on Europe’s ports? This article is based on the HWWI and Berenberg Bank study “Maritime Trade and Transport Logistics” published in 2007.     

Endogenous firm heterogeneity and the dynamics of trade liberalization

In this paper, we build a dynamic model with endogenous firm-level productivity that involves ex ante identical firms behaving differently in equilibrium. Heterogeneity arises in equilibrium as firms choose different dates to adopt a new technology. We investigate the effects of international trade on technological diffusion and show that trade has a generally positive impact on the equilibrium rate of adoption (and hence on firm-level productivity). In addition, the model can replicate the stylized fact that exporters are larger and more productive than non-exporters. Finally, we show how our model can be used to interpret the emerging empirical evidence on the firm-level productivity effects of CUSFTA.     

Measuring International Trade Costs

The costs of international trade have become an increasingly important item in trade negotiations (under the heading ‘trade facilitation’) and element of trade theory, but definition and measurement of trade costs remain in their infancy. This paper argues that the most conceptually appropriate measure is the gap between cost‐insurance‐freight (cif) and free‐on‐board (fob) values of traded goods, but that this must be measured on a consistent volume of trade. Such data are only available for a few countries. We calculate cif–fob gap values for the three largest trading nations that report such data (Australia, Brazil and the USA). These values provide plausible estimates of ad valorem trade costs for the three importing countries and for all countries’ exports. The estimates indicate that although trade costs have fallen over the last two decades, average trade costs now exceed the average tariff rate on imports into the USA and Australia. Country rankings by the cif–fob gap values differ significantly from those by commonly used proxies for trade costs, such as the indicators of time and cost in the World Bank’s Doing Business database, and analysis based on such proxies is likely to produce misleading results.