Examining the Return–Volatility Relation for Foreign Exchange: Evidence from the Euro VIX

We compare the return–volatility relation for the euro currency to the equivalent relation for the equity market, examining the sign, symmetry, and strength of the relation. We employ the euro‐currency exchange‐traded fund (FXE) and its associated option implied volatility index (the EVZ), whereas previous studies only employ equities and/or realized volatility. The equity studies find a negative asymmetric return–volatility relation for implied volatility, with a strong relation when large market movements occur. We find that the euro return–volatility relation can possess either a positive or negative sign, is asymmetric, and has a weaker relation. Thus, the sign and strength of the euro relation differs from the equivalent equity relation. Our quantile regressions show that both the positive and negative contemporaneous returns of the euro result in increased volatility in the extreme quantiles of the conditional distribution, with the contemporaneous effect showing a stronger relation when the euro depreciates. We also find that the volume of the euro‐currency ETF options affects the return–volatility relation for the euro ETF. Overall, the results here expand the concept originally restricted to equities, with the surprising results that the return‐implied volatility relation is weaker and the asymmetric return sometimes is positive for the euro currency. © 2012 Wiley Periodicals, Inc. Jrl Fut Mark 34:74–92, 2014     

EMU and Trade Revisited: Long‐Run Evidence Using Gravity Equations

In this paper, we present evidence of the long‐run effect of the euro on trade for the twelve initial EMU countries for the period 1967–2008 from a double perspective. First, we pool all the bilateral combinations of trade flows among the EMU countries in a panel cointegration gravity specification. Second, we estimate a gravity equation for each of the EMU members vis‐à‐vis the other eleven partners. We apply panel cointegration techniques based on factor models that account for cross‐dependence and structural breaks. Whereas the joint gravity equation provides evidence on the aggregate effect of the euro on intra‐European trade, by isolating the individual countries, we assess which of the member countries have obtained a larger benefit from the euro. The results show that the euro has had a positive though small effect on trade. Belgium and Luxembourg, France and Italy are the countries more benefited from the introduction of the euro. The effects for exports to third countries are in general more moderate, and, with the exception of Greece, there is no evidence of diversion effects.     

The US Dollar and the Euro as International Currencies

For many decades the US dollar has remained unchallenged as the world’s dominant international currency. What is behind its persistent pre-eminence in the international monetary system and can this be expected to last? Could the euro rival or even surpass the dollar as the leading currency? If it did, what would be the consequences for Euroland?      

Household production of sorghum beer in Benin: technological and socio‐economic aspects

This study evaluated the sorghum brewing microenterprises in Benin with emphasis on the beer quality, the social significance of the product as well as the income generated. Tchoukoutou, the Benin opaque sorghum beer, has important social functions as it fosters the cooperative spirit and remains an ancestral beverage widely used for traditional ceremonies. The manufacturing process consists of malting (soaking, germination and sun drying), brewing (mashing, boiling, filtration) and fermentation. The beer is sour with a pH of 3.2 and contains a relatively high but variable level of solids and crude protein. Most of the consumers appreciate an opaque, sour and pink‐coloured beer. The consumers related many of the beer properties to health effects. Participants can link the perceived qualities of the beer to the grain’s functional properties, and this leads to the classification of the farmers’ sorghum as varieties of top, medium and low quality for brewing. The profits from tchoukoutou production range from 2365 to 17 212 fcfa per month (1 euro = 656 fcfa) for the producers, depending on beer yield and quantity of raw grain transformed. The generated income is used for household needs and part of it is invested in children’s education.     

The Macroeconomic Imbalance Procedure at the Heart of EU Economic Governance Reform

While the euro officially came into being in 1999, it was the introduction of euro notes and coins 20 years ago in January 2002 that made the common currency a tangible reality for European citizens. The circle of member states has since grown from 11 to 19, and a growing section of the population no longer has any personal experience with a “national” currency, yet the debate on the legal and institutional framework underpinning the common currency has never gone away.

     

The “Euro Illusion”: Illusion or Fact?

The changeover to the euro elicited an upsurge of research on the effects of the new currency on consumers’ conversion strategies, price estimates, price evaluations, choices, and purchases. This research includes longitudinal surveys, interviews, and controlled experiments, both natural and in the laboratory. The present article starts with an overview of this research after which it more specifically focuses on research showing an influence of the nominal value, as expressed in different currencies, on price evaluations and consumer choice. For most countries, the transition to the euro led to a lower nominal value currency. A bias known as the “euro illusion” has been documented such that the subjective value of money is influenced in the direction of the nominal value (i.e., in most countries prices and salaries seem smaller when expressed in euros than in the old domestic currency). Although the term was coined in connection with the euro changeover, the nominal representation of a currency has been shown to influence the subjective value of money in unfamiliar currencies other than the euro. Thus, tourists travelling abroad may frequently be subject to such an illusion. Different mechanisms have been proposed to account for the euro illusion. One is the numerosity heuristic and another the anchoring-and-adjustment heuristic in conjunction with biased conversion strategies. The size of the euro illusion is influenced by trade-offs between accuracy and effort. Consistent with this hypothesis, task importance, time constraints, familiarity with the conversion strategy, complexity of the conversion strategy, mood, and attitude towards the country or the currency all influence the size of the euro illusion.     

Who Gains From Nominal Devaluation? An Empirical Assessment of Euro‐area Exports and Imports

In early 2013, rumours about the euro‐appreciation gained momentum, which may lead to decreases in exports and increases in imports of the member states. Therefore, we investigate the impact of changes in the nominal euro exchange rate vis‐à‐vis major currencies on export and import performance of nine different euro‐area countries. To disentangle the ‘true’ equilibrium elasticities Stein's unbiased risk estimate (SURE) system error correction models (SSECM) are estimated for nominal exchange rate changes versus the rest of the world or other major currencies. To differentiate between price level changes and changes of the nominal exchange rate, a country's export and import equation is estimated using separately the nominal rate and the relative price/unit labour cost as regressors. Results of Wald tests indicate that assuming both variables to have the same influence on exports and imports is misleading. Whether the relative price/unit labour costs elasticities are high or low depends crucially on which indicator is chosen, while the effect of nominal exchange rate changes can be estimated robustly for all countries in the sample. In particular, France and Spain are hit by a euro‐appreciation since their exports are highly exchange rate elastic. However, for France, this effect is at least partly offset by an also negative exchange rate elasticity of imports.     

Die Europäische Währungsunion: Viel reformiert,aber noch nicht am Ziel

Since the onset of the euro crisis, many aspects of the governance of the euro area have been reformed. Rules for budget control have been tightened, and oversight and resolution of banks has been centralised. Credit facilities have been created for member states who have trouble tapping financial markets. Moreover, the reform process is not over yet but can be expected to continue for another decade before details of a planned fiscal capacity will be implemented. Yet despite all these reforms, the euro area is still not crisis-proof. The permanent low rate of economic growth and the continuing lack of working macroeconomic coordination are particular reasons for concern.     

From dollarisation to euroisation

In the past the dollar has been so dominant as an international currency that the term ‘dollarisation’ has become a synonym for currency substitution, i.e. the voluntary use of a foreign currency instead of the respective country's own legal tender. This article addresses the question as to whether the euro may be expected to partly replace the US currency in this function, focusing on the former's use as a substitution currency in countries on the periphery of the euro zone. Some policy conclusions are drawn for both the ‘euroised’ economies and Euroland.     

Can the Euro Survive?

One of the fascinating aspects of the European debt crisis has been the resilience of the euro. For much of 2011, the euro was a key reserve currency, oblivious to the chaos ravaging European economies. Now, however, the gravity of the crisis is finally dragging down the euro. As the Euro zone debt crisis enters its third uncertain year, the question about whether the euro can survive rises. This paper argues that the euro can survive given policymakers still have in hand various tools. These tools include creating exit rules, implementing new stabilisation rules and instruments, adopting new fiscal policy, introducing conditional Eurobonds, using inflation differentials and providing more independence to the European Central Bank.     

The franc zone of West and Central Africa

In the francophone countries of West and Central Africa a currency system has long been in place which was originally based on the French franc and is now based on the euro. A look at how this system has operated over the years may highlight some useful experiences for the countries on the eastern and southern periphery of the euro area that are now considering pegging their national currencies to the euro and could help to clarify the opportunities and risks arising for both these countries and the present participants of European Monetary Union.     

Treaty Reform: Consequences for Monetary Policy

The proposed reform treaty, aimed at enhancing the efficiency and democratic legitimacy of the enlarged Union as well as its position on the global stage, has a number of important implications for monetary policy and the status of the European Central Bank. Can the reforms be expected to make euro area governance more efficient? Could they potentially jeopardise the ECB's independence and European monetary policy? Member of the Panel of Experts of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament, to which the article was first presented as a Briefing Paper for the Monetary Dialogue with the President of the European Central Bank in October 2007. The author gratefully acknowledges the helpful comments of Edin Mujagic and the excellent research assistance of Rob Nijskens.     

Change at the ECB Executive Board

In view of the future enlargement of the euro area the European Central Bank (ECB) will have to be reformed. The ECB itself has presented a reform proposal which points in the right direction, but which could be improved upon for more efficient decision-making.

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*Sylvester C. W. Eijffinger, Professor of European Financial Economics and Jean Monnet Professor of European Financial and Monetary Integration, CentER, Tilburg University, The Netherlands; Professor of European Financial Integration, RSM Erasmus University, Rotterdam, The Netherlands; Research Fellow, CEPR, London; Member of the Panel of Experts of the Committee on Economic and Monetary Affairs of the European Parliament to which the article was first presented as a Briefing Paper in March 2006. Comments on an earlier version of the Briefing Paper by Prof. Hans Blommestein and Dr. Edin Mujagic are gratefully acknowledged.     

Why price‐level dispersion went up in Europe after the financial crisis

Persistent price differences across euro area countries are an indication of incomplete economic integration. We analyse long‐ and short‐run developments of price‐level dispersion in the euro area and compare the results with price dispersion across US cities. We find that monetary and economic integration in Europe has been successful in establishing a major downward trend in price‐level differences across countries since 1960. After the Global Financial Crisis and the European Sovereign Debt Crisis, diverging economic conditions across euro area countries led to higher income dispersion, which contributed to a widening of price‐level differences again.     

The Euro Illusion in Consumers’ Price Estimation: An Italian–Irish Comparison in the Third Year of the Euro

The euro illusion is a transient phenomenon that consists of currency-related asymmetries in the intuitive judgment of product prices made by consumers. The results of a cross-country study in the third year after the introduction of the euro show a strong price estimation asymmetry in a country with an extreme exchange rate (Italy) and a weaker effect in a country in which the nominal values of the new and the old currency are much closer (Ireland). These results rule out proposed explanations of the euro illusion in price estimation that assume the sole influence of plausible anchors (reference prices stored in memory within the plausible price range), supporting instead accounts also endorsing the role of implausible anchors (reference prices outside the plausible price range). Beyond contributing to our theoretical understanding of the euro illusion, this research starts to unveil the interplay between structural factors (i.e., the currency exchange rate) and psychological mechanisms that produce long-lasting difficulties for consumers after a monetary changeover.

Personalist Business Ethics and Humanistic Management: Insights from Jacques Maritain

The integration of personalism into business ethics has been recently studied. Research has also been conducted on humanistic management approaches. The conceptual relationship between personalism and humanism, however, has not been fully addressed. This article furthers that research by arguing that a true humanistic management is personalistic. Moreover, it claims that personalism is promising as a sound philosophical foundation for business ethics. Insights from Jacques Maritain’s work are discussed in support of these conclusions. Of particular interest is his distinction between human person and individual based on a realistic metaphysics that, in turn, grounds human dignity and the natural law as the philosophical basis for human rights, personal virtues, and a common good defined in terms of properly human ends. Although Maritain is widely regarded as one of the foremost twentieth century personalist philosophers, his contribution has not been sufficiently considered in the business ethics and humanistic management literature. Important implications of Maritainian personalism for business ethics as philosophical study and as practical professional pursuit are discussed.     

Consumer price knowledge before and after the euro changeover

This article examines how the price knowledge of Finnish consumers has changed since the adoption of the euro. Our study measures price knowledge by comparing consumers’ price estimations with actual market prices at two points in time: before (October 2001) and after (March 2002) the changeover to the euro. Furthermore, we study potential differences between three different age groups. We approach the issue using four determinants, namely (1) response percentage (the percentage of respondents who were able to give a price estimate); (2) the difference between the median of the market prices and the median of the price evaluations; (3) the difference between the average of the market prices and the average of the price evaluations; and (4) the average of the absolute deviations between the average of product prices and consumer price evaluations. Our results indicate that, on average, consumers know the prices of grocery products quite well despite the prevailing dispersion of actual prices in the market. Price knowledge was found to be rather good both before and after the introduction of the euro. Nevertheless, the good price knowledge after the changeover was probably because consumers remembered the prices asked in the old currency and converted them to euros. The majority of respondents were able to give price estimates that were within the range of actual price dispersion in stores. The results also show some deterioration in price knowledge after the advent of the euro. There was variation between different age groups, and it seems that the introduction of the euro has affected various groups differently. Consumers aged 30–50 years knew prices best both before and after the euro, whereas the ability to estimate prices had declined most among consumers above 50 years after the euro changeover.     

欧洲主权债务危机及其对中欧贸易的影响研究

随着希腊主权债务危机的爆发,整个欧元区乃至全球又一次地笼罩在经济危机的阴影下。由于欧元体制等问题,使得希腊的债务危机逐渐演变成为欧元区债务危机,其对全球金融市场和主要经济体都产生了重大的影响。本文首先阐述欧债危机产生的背景和原因,进而分析欧债危机对中欧贸易的主要影响,并提出相应的对策建议。     

What can sector accounts tell about the financial crisis?

The current sovereign debt crisis is widely believed to have been caused by insufficient budget discipline. However, the financial sector accounts reveal that public as well as private borrowing in the euro area was dwarfed by the synchronised explosion of assets and liabilities of financial corporations. The paper suggests that the current concentration on a speedy cutback of public debt is premature at best. Policy should pay more attention to the main causes of the crisis: the excesses of the financial sector and the flaws in the design of the heterogeneous currency union.     

Index of Perceived Inflation or EU Consumer Surveys?

After the euro changeover at the beginning of 2002, a marked discrepancy emerged between perceived inflation and inflation as measured by the consumer price index. To what extent are consumers still overestimating price developments even now? How reliably is this phenomenon measured by the “Index of perceived inflation” developed by Professor Brachinger? What are the findings of the consumer surveys conducted on behalf of the European Commission?

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This article represents the personal opinions of the authors and does not necessarily reflect the views of the Deutsche Bundesbank.