Impact of star and movie buzz on motion picture distribution and box office revenue

This study contributes to research on the impact that consumer buzz has on movie distribution and box office success by examining the impact of buzz generated about the individual stars and about the movie itself. The results indicate that movie buzz is instrumental in boosting box office revenue throughout the theatrical release, not just in the later run, as has been suggested in previous studies. Star buzz can enhance box office receipts during the opening week and can contribute to the public's anticipation of the movie pre-release. However, early buzz can have a negative impact on revenue during subsequent weeks if the movie fails to resonate with the audiences. Model simulations reveal that, even for poorly received films, the overall impact of star buzz is positive because the initial revenue boost normally outweighs the later decline. Thus, this study empirically demonstrates the positive impact of star buzz on revenue, which helps shed light on the long-standing debate regarding the importance of star participation in the success of a movie.     

When should star power and eWOM be responsible for the box office performance? - An empirical study based on signaling theory

Information asymmetry universally exists in the market transactions. In the movie industry, consumers usually have limited access to quality information before they actually watch the movie, which increases the difficulty of purchase decision. Quality signaling is regarded as an effective solution for information asymmetry. Drawing upon the signaling theory, this study identifies the two types of signals, namely internal signals (i.e., actor/actress power and director power) and external signals (i.e., eWOM volume and eWOM valence). We further empirically investigate how the two types of signals influence the box office performance in different time periods of the movie's theatrical running (i.e., opening week and later-run weeks). The moderating effect of the signaling environment (i.e., number of ongoing movies in the same period) on the relationship between the signals and box office performance is also examined. Analyzing the data obtained from 80 Chinese movies, this study finds that all signals except eWOM valence positively influence box office performance. Internal signals are instrumental in enhancing box office performance during the opening week, whereas external signal (only eWOM volume) is more influential in boosting box office performance in the later-run weeks. Our results also reveal that the signaling environment can augment the positive effect of internal signals on box office performance. Based on these findings, both theoretical and managerial implications are discussed for researchers and practitioners in establishing ways to produce, distribute and promote movies.     

Empirical generalizations of demand and supply dynamics for movies

High financial risks in production and marketing, the hedonic nature of products, and the global cultural relevance of movies have encouraged a substantial number of researchers to analyze the success drivers of movies. This research provides empirical generalizations in managing the supply and demand of motion pictures. Prior empirical research either ignored the endogeneity of box office and screen allocation or was based on selective samples, ignoring the large amount of smaller movies released to the market. Using two large and unique samples of all movies released in two major movie markets, the US (2000–2010; n = 2098) and Germany (2002–2010; n = 1360), we extend prior research and present empirical generalizations and new fields of research.     

The effects of eWOM volume and valence on product sales – an empirical examination of the movie industry

The present research examines how quantitative and qualitative aspects – volume and valence – of eWOM on various social media platforms in the movie industry, along with other forms of marketing communications (e.g. advertising expenditure), predict box office and DVD sales for pre- and post-periods of movie releases. The analysis of aggregated big data from multiple sources – 65,665,859 social media postings from blogs, forums, news, and Twitter, Nielsen’s ad expenditure data, and Rotten Tomatoes ratings for 170 movies—revealed that the explanatory power of the model for box office revenue and DVD sales mostly comes from the volume, rather than valence, of eWOM.     

Effectiveness of brand placement: New insights about viewers

Since traditional media have become saturated, the technique of product placement has been attracting growing interest. This research explores new insights concerning viewers' reactions during a second viewing of a movie. A sample of 3532 French viewers of DVDs has been used to link the way the movie was chosen, viewed and appreciated (or not) with a spontaneous brand placement recall, the day after the film was watched at home. Results make a contribution to strengthening professionals' interest in the technique, and to adding to academic knowledge of the topic. A first viewing of the movie at the cinema improves brand placement recall, as does watching the movie at home on a large home cinema screen. Such an improvement also occurs when a DVD movie is chosen either because of the movie director or when the viewer likes the movie.     

Consumer personality and lifestyles at the box office and beyond: How demographics,lifestyles and personalities predict movie consumption

While movie studios have leveraged data traditionally through demographics, there may be missed opportunities in securing further granular insights through personality and lifestyle scales. Due to the amount of hyper-competition among movies but also across platforms, marketers and advertisers may revisit consideration of how consumer personality and consumer lifestyle may aid them in predicting movie frequency consumption across genres and platforms. This study deployed a survey and collected a national randomized sample (N=301). Implications include cultivating consumer profiles and anticipating how certain personalities and lifestyles may help measure certain movie genre and movie platform consumption.     

The Main Determinants of Bollywood Movie Box Office Sales

ABSTRACT

The Indian film industry produces more movies and sells more tickets than any other movie industry, with revenues second only to those of the U.S. film industry. We employ a two-by-two research design to investigate the main determinants of Indian movie sales overseas using two measures of movie performance for two countries of destination. By examining data and testing our hypotheses on a sample of 330 films, we identify effects related to brand, product, distribution, and consumers during opening week as well as total box office sales both individually and collectively. Results show that the groups of variables affecting Bollywood opening week sales for both countries of destination are identical in sequence and importance (distribution, product, brand, consumer variables). For total box office sales, they are similar, with the exception of the first group. For the United Kingdom, consumer-related variables predominate while distribution-related variables predominate in the United States, followed then for both countries by product- and brand-related variables. Results underscore previous findings for Hollywood movies, indicating that movie success factors are global rather than regional or national.     

Can good marketing carry a bad product? Evidence from the motion picture industry

We examine the relative roles of marketing actions and product quality in determining commercial success. Using the motion picture context, in which product quality is difficult for consumers to anticipate and information on product success is available for different points in time, we model the effects of studio actions and movie quality on a movie’s sales during different phases of its theatrical run. For a sample of 331 recent motion pictures, structural equation modeling demonstrates that studio actions primarily influence early box office results, whereas movie quality influences both short- and long-term theatrical outcomes. The core results are robust across moderating conditions. We identify two data segments with follow-up latent class regressions and explore the degree of studio actions needed to “save” movies of varying quality. We finally offer some implications for research and management.     

Fast and frequent: Investigating box office revenues of motion picture sequels

This paper conceptualizes film sequels as brand extensions of a hedonic product and tests (1) how their box office revenues compare to that of their parent films, and (2) if the time interval between the sequel and the parent, and the number of intervening sequels, affect the revenues earned by the sequels at the box office. Using a random sample of 167 films released between 1991 and 1993, we find that sequels do not match the box office revenues of the parent films. However, they do better than their contemporaneous non-sequels, more so when they are released sooner (rather than later) after their parents, and when more (rather than fewer) intervening sequels come before them. Like other extensions of hedonic products, sequels exhibit satiation to the extent that their weekly box office collections fall faster over time relative to contemporaneous non-sequels. Managerial implications of the results are discussed.     

Demand Shifts and Changes in Competition: Evidence from the Movie Theatre Industry

In this paper, I empirically examine how demand shifts affect firm behaviour. In particular, I study how competitive behaviour between firms changes across different demand states. For this purpose, I use price and concentration data from the Spanish movie theatre industry in 1995 and 2000. The evidence suggests that demand shifts change the competitive nature of the industry under study, and that this change differs across different demand shifts. Firms deviate less from tacit collusive behaviour when gains of deviation are smaller.     

The effectiveness of movie trailer advertising

Prior to a movie release in theaters, trailer advertising provides valuable information that can help viewers and investors form expectations about the movie's future success. While previous research has looked at the financial implications of movie advertising budgets, the effects of trailers' creative characteristics on abnormal returns have not yet been investigated. Using a sample of movie trailers, results from our event study and cross-sectional analysis show that the appeal of the movie plot revealed in the trailer, the number of scene cuts and the inclusion of violent, sexual, or humorous scenes influence the movie's abnormal returns. However, the use of special effects in the movie trailer does not impact investors. Results also suggest that investors react more strongly to first than to follow-up trailers released for the movie, and that early release of the first positively impacts the movie's returns.     

The Economic Significance of the Film Business: An Empirical Analysis of the Italian Market

Most studies indicate Hollywood's economic and financial leadership in the movie markets from the 1910s onward. There is a shortfall in the literature concerning the analysis of the efficacy of other minor film industries. This article examines the Italian film industry in the 1990s and beginning of the twenty‐first century. The research suggests that the Italian film industry is very risky and unpredictable, but while the extreme uncertainty surrounding the business is offset by the considerable economic success that Hollywood movies achieve at the box office, as indicated by previous literature contributions, a different business scenario emerges in Italy. The value of this article is first represented by the data used—provided by the Osservatorio of Cinecittà—which is unique and has not been published before. © 2016 Wiley Periodicals, Inc.     

The impact of social media conversations on consumer brand choices

This paper estimates the impact of social media conversations on consumer valuation of brand characteristics and demand for carbonated soft drinks (CSDs). We formulate a random coefficient, discrete choice model of consumer demand that includes social media conversations, and estimate it matching Nielsen sales data on carbonated soft drinks to social media conversations on Facebook, Twitter, and YouTube. Empirical results indicate that consumers’ conversations about brands and nutritional aspects of CSDs have a significant impact on their valuation of brand characteristics and ultimately on their choices of CSDs. These findings have important implications not only for firms using social media as a strategic tool for effective brand promotion and product design but also for public health policies aimed at reducing the consumption of sugary beverages and high-calorie foods.     

The dynamics of online word-of-mouth and product sales—An empirical investigation of the movie industry

There are growing interests in understanding how word-of-mouth (WOM) on the Internet is generated and how it influences consumers’ purchase decisions at retail outlets. A unique aspect of the WOM effect is the presence of a positive feedback mechanism between WOM and retail sales. We characterize the process through a dynamic simultaneous equation system, in which we separate the effect of online WOM as both a precursor to and an outcome of retail sales. We apply our approach to the movie industry, showing that both a movie's box office revenue and WOM valence significantly influence WOM volume. WOM volume in turn leads to higher box office performance. This positive feedback mechanism highlights the importance of WOM in generating and sustaining retail revenue.     

Understanding preferences for motion pictures

Of interest in the consumer behavior field are the drivers of experiential and aesthetic consumption. This paper considers these questions in the context of the motion picture industry. Most motion picture industry studies use secondary data to elucidate a relationship between movie attributes (genre, star power, critical reviews, distribution strategy, etc.) and box-office revenues. The study gathers primary data from 225 survey respondents in New Zealand to further understand the factors influencing the purchase decision-making process of movie-going consumers. The study uses a factor-analytic approach to map the different genres in attribute space, and to understand the drivers of choice. Overall, the results show genre, movies based on true stories, critical reviews, word-of-mouth, country of origin, pricing strategy as well as star and director power significantly impact consumers' movie choices.     

Substitution or Promotion? The Impact of Price Discounts on Cross-Channel Sales of Digital Movies

Technology is transforming the marketing function in many ways, and this transformation is particularly apparent for information goods such as movies where digital technologies provide marketers with new distribution channels, which in turn create new opportunities for cross-channel effects. However, these digital channels also provide researchers with new opportunities to measure micro-level customer behavior to understand the impact of cross-channel effects in real-world settings.In this paper, we study cross-channel effects between movies sold in digital purchase (commonly known as Electronic Sell Through or EST) and digital rental (commonly known as Video-On-Demand or VOD) markets. We do this using a unique sales dataset from a major digital movie retailer provided by a major movie studio. Our analysis takes advantage of a 14-week field experiment that allows us to measure the impact of price discounts on own- and cross-channel sales. We use this experiment to estimate own and cross price elasticities, whether price discounts cannibalize future sales, and most importantly whether price discounts in one channel affect sales for the same product in a presumably competing channel.Our analysis indicates that digital movie consumers are highly sensitive to price promotions. However, we also find that, contrary to expectations, price promotions in a digital sales channel for a movie do not seem to cannibalize digital rentals. Indeed, our results suggest that, if anything, price promotions for digital movie sales can increase digital rentals. We explore a variety of explanations for this counterintuitive result, including the possibility that the ease of information transmission online through third-party websites, blogs, and online discussion areas may create information spillovers such that price discounts in one channel may increase product awareness in other competing sales channels. From a managerial perspective, our results suggest that cross-channel cannibalization can be reduced or even reversed in the presence of information spillovers, and that there are many new opportunities for marketers to directly measure these cross-channel effects using experimental data from online platforms.     

Measuring the financial and social performance of French mutual funds: A data envelopment analysis approach

Socially responsible investors pursue both financial and non-financial goals. In this paper, we attempt to assess the performance of French socially responsible mutual funds (SRMFs). We consider the data envelopment analysis (DEA) approach, which allows us to assign a unique efficiency score while combining financial and social characteristics, using various combinations within different types of risk (total risk, market risk, and downside risk). We report the list of funds found to be DEA efficient using various output-oriented models. We also compare our obtained results with the traditional and modern measures used in the literature (Sharpe, Treynor, and the information ratio). We contribute to the literature by testing the validity of the DEA methodology in the financial context. The findings have important implications for fund selection processes and would be mainly of interest to investors and fund managers who integrate environmental, social, and governance criteria into their investment choices.     

基于回归分析的中国电影票房影响因素研究

本文通过对国外文献的阅读和整理,并结合中国现实情况,选取了影响电影票房的四个因素,即电影类型、电影评分、演员号召力和电影产地。以从2003年至2012年(截止至4月8日)十年间中国电影票房年度排行榜上排名前十名的影片票房为因变量,以电影类型、电影评分、演员号召力和电影产地为自变量,通过逐步回归分析构建了影响电影票房因素的多元回归模型,并对回归结果予以分析和解释,以期对国内相对较为缺乏的电影产业实证研究有所助益,并就未来研究方向提出设想。     

中美两国影视产业国际竞争力的比较研究——基于全球价值链视角

本文基于2002-2010年的UNCTAD数据,选取贸易竞争力指数、国际市场占有率指数、显示性比较优势指数、纯出口比较优势指数四个指标,测度中美两国影视产业的国际竞争力状况。结果表明:中国影视产业国际竞争力与美国存在巨大差距,但其差距呈现递减趋势。从全球价值链视角而言,中国影视产业尚处于全球影视产业价值链低端,核心价值链环节自我构建尚未完成;影视产业高端价值链运营能力不足,影视衍生品开发不够。因此,积极嵌入全球价值链,促进影视产业价值链的整合与升级才是提升中国影视产业国际竞争力的根本之道。