Occupancy,oil prices,and stock returns: Evidence from the U.S. airline industry

This paper examines whether occupancy of seats affects stock returns of airline companies and how this relationship is affected by WTI oil prices. Our approach combines revenues (occupancy) and costs (oil prices) for 33 U.S. airline companies from 1990 to 2019. Using travel capacity utilization data from U.S. carriers at monthly frequency and exploiting fixed-effects regression models, we document a positive relation between occupancy and stock returns, which is attenuated by oil prices. The role of oil becomes larger with asymmetries: the effects of oil prices are higher when moving up than down. Airline stocks always respond by more than the overall stock market.     

A wavelet analysis for exploring the relationship between economic policy uncertainty and tourist footfalls in the USA

We attempt to establish the relationship between Economic Policy Uncertainty (EPU) and international tourist footfalls in the USA. In the first stage, we investigate the influence of country-specific EPU and global EPU on tourist footfalls. Since, these two are overlapping in nature, in the second stage, we study the isolated influence of country-specific EPU on footfalls by eliminating the influence of global EPU and vice versa. We consider a study period spanning over January 1997 to April 2017. To capture the variations in the relationship at different time dimensions, we apply wavelet-based techniques. We observe the following: (a) the impact of policy uncertainty shock has a little immediate impact on tourist footfalls, (b) medium to long-run shocks persist due to occurrence of major undesirable economic events, and (c) the influence of domestic (country-specific) EPU is dominant in comparison to global EPU for the USA.     

Terrorism and tourism demand: a case study of Lebanon,Turkey and Israel

Using a seemingly unrelated regression (SUR) model, this paper examines the impact of domestic and transnational terrorism on tourism demand (as measured by visitor arrivals) to Lebanon, Turkey and Israel. The distinguishing feature of this paper is that we use a dynamic framework that takes into account (i) the intensity of terrorism and (ii) the associated spillover effects. The empirical results, based on monthly data from 1995 to 2007, reveal that terrorism in one country affects visitor arrivals not only to that country but also to other countries. We find that tourists view Lebanese and Turkish tourism markets as substitutes. Terrorism in Israel, of all types (i.e. domestic or transnational) and intensities, affects visitor arrivals to Lebanon and Turkey. In overall terms, terrorism has a much larger negative impact on visitor arrivals to Lebanon.     

How do monetary operations impact tourism demand? The case of Turkey

All monetary operations such as revaluation and devaluation have some degree of impact on tourism demand at different significance levels. The purpose of this study was to explain how devaluation and revaluation affect tourism demand (domestic and international) and what the government should do to obtain the greatest benefits from them. Turkey has one of the fastest growing tourism industries in the world, and has been experiencing high inflation at a very significant level since the 1970s. The Turkish Government sometimes makes value adjustments on the Turkish national currency, the ‘Lira’, and these adjustments have influenced domestic and international tourism demand in Turkey. The case of Turkey is discussed specifically. Copyright © 2004 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.     

The impacts of COVID-19 on the global airline industry: An event study approach

This study examines the short-term impact of the 2019 novel coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak on 52 listed airline companies around the world by using event study methodology. The results demonstrate that airline stock returns decline more significantly than the market returns after three major COVID-19 announcements were made. Overall, investors react differently during the three selected events. The strongest overreaction is noted in the post-event period of the World Health Organization's and President Trump's official announcements. Moreover, the findings confirm that traders in Western countries are more responsive to recent information than the rest of the world. The findings call for immediate policy designs in order to alleviate the impact of the pandemic in the airline industry around the globe.     

Platform coopetition in the tourism industry: conflicts and tensions caused by the closure of Booking.com in Turkey

In March 2017, as a result of a precautionary interim decision made by the courts based on the case relating to ‘unfair competition practices’, Booking.com closed its platform for inbound tourism in Turkey and ceased operations. This was the first instance of an online booking platform halting access for inbound bookings for the domestic market. This platform-based relationship involves both cooperation and competition, and thus this paper identifies this relationship as platform coopetition. Based on the governance network theory and employing a case-study approach, the Booking.com case is examined from the viewpoint of tourism coopetition from two perspectives: industry-wide and agent-specific. The paper provides an analysis of these perspectives and the past and on-going process of Booking.com’s platform closure. The constitutive dynamics this case endangers the coopetitive environment of the tourism industry and thus creates destructive uncertainties, especially for small hotels. This analysis also reveals the issues in terms of political representation for digital service platform companies.     

Does tourism cause growth? Evidence from Turkey

This paper examines the impact of detailed tourism expenditure on the long-run economic growth by employing Autoregressive Distributed Lag (ARDL) approach and causality test for data set of 2003:1 to 2012:4 in Turkey. The detailed tourism expenditure data are firstly employed for the causality of tourism expenditure on economic growth. The results of the bounds test show that there is a stable long-run relationship between accommodation expenses, transport expenditure, expenditure of sporting activities, sightseeing tour expenditure, clothing–footwear expenditure, gift expenditure and economic growth. The results of the causality test, on the other hand, show that there is a bidirectional causality between accommodation expenses, expenditure of sporting activities, gift expenditure and economic growth and a causal flow from transport expenditure to economic growth which is verified growth-led tourism hypothesis. Results reveal that sightseeing tour expenditure and expenditure of sporting activities are more successful on explaining the long-run growth in Turkey in terms of ARDL coefficients size. This result implies a policy that Turkey needs to invest tourism to gain more especially by focusing accommodation, sightseeing tours, sporting activities and transport infrastructure.     

Basic Questions of 'Sustainable Tourism': Does Ecological and Socially Acceptable Tourism Have a Chance?

This paper examines the tourism market and its effects on the national economy. Ecological and socio-cultural problems cannot be denied. Due to an ever-increasing number of tourists, studies of tourism specific problems are necessary. To suggest and understand steps for the realisation of sustainable tourism, the author demands a glance at the whole tourism system, which he does by giving an overview of the tourism industry with obvious problems in that field. There is an analysis of the development of tourism demand, and the question whether there is something like 'sustainable mass tourism'. The increasing awareness of the environment plays an important role when it comes to tourism and selecting a tourism destination. The paper tries to find answers to promote a more sustainable tourism through tour operators and tourism companies, which can be a niche strategy for small or medium sized businesses. Strategical points (approaches) of a more sustainable tourism are shown. The realisation of sustainable tourism can be an economical opportunity for tourism companies in the long term, but according to the author the immediate risks involved in such a strategy can outweigh the benefits. There are also limits in carrying out more sustainable tourism programmes.     

A nonparametric efficiency analysis of German public transport companies

In this paper, we present a nonparametric comparative efficiency analysis of 179 communal public transport bus companies in Germany (1990–2004). We apply both deterministic data envelopment analysis (DEA) and bootstrapping to test the robustness of our estimates and to test the hypothesis of global and individual constant returns to scale. We find that the average technical efficiency of German bus companies is relatively low. We observe that the industry appears to be characterized by increasing returns to scale for smaller companies. These results would imply increasing pressure on bus companies to restructure.     

Sustainability in small tourist businesses: the link between initiatives and performance

This study explores the combined effects of adopting sustainable practices on small tourism companies’ performance. The existing literature provides insufficient data on sustainable behaviour because most studies on environmental practices focus on larger companies in the tourism sector, and a gap exists in social practices. This study is based on a survey of 374 restaurant managers. It uses structural equation modelling to study direct links between three dimensions – quality, environmental practices and social practices – and financial performance and market success factors. Significant differences with earlier studies are found. This study suggests that proactive sustainable practices can benefit small service companies by improving competitiveness even in difficult times. Practical implications are discussed in relation to sustainable practices.     

Winners and losers in the Arab uprisings: a Mediterranean tourism perspective

This paper analyses the effects of the recent Arab uprisings on tourism destinations located along the Mediterranean coastline. It uses time-series analysis to model international tourist arrivals. First, autoregressive integrated moving average models are estimated for the period 1980–2009 and predicted for 2010–2014 to establish suitable country controls. Second, Bayesian structural time-series models – designed primarily to determine causal impacts in on-line marketing campaigns – are used to establish the effects of the events in Tunisia, Egypt, Morocco, Turkey, Spain and Greece. The main conclusion is that the models clearly capture the negative impact of the uprisings in Tunisia and Egypt and their positive impacts on Morocco and Turkey. However, the effects on Spain and Greece are less clear and depend crucially on the set of controls used in the analysis.     

Coupling tourism development and agricultural processes in a dynamic environment

The role of agriculture in the Israeli economy has been declining, and a combination of essential trends has resulted in the emergence of tourism as alternative sources of economic growth in rural areas. These changes have created a new situation, in which tourism-related developments in the rural areas of Israel have become part of the activities of many farm owners. Thus, the Israeli rural environment is a single, tightly coupled system and should be analysed as such. The growth of rural tourism in the Israeli agricultural sector raises several questions, addressing whether rural tourism and farming are synergetic, and the effects of tight coupling between tourism development and agricultural processes. This article presents a simulation model of the coupling effects in which tourism development and agricultural processes are tightly coupled. Our model examined large numbers of different scenarios and the possible outcomes of a decision the farm owner takes in a routine situation of uncertainty. A typical Israeli farm owner embarks on tourism development activities mainly because of stress. Our model shows that adding tourism activities does not increase profit dramatically, but it does increase the variance of profit, which means greater exposure to risks.     

Residents’ attitudes to tourists visiting their mosques: a case study from Istanbul,Turkey

Resident perception of tourism impacts has been one of the most studied areas of tourism. However, there is an extremely limited literature on resident perceptions of religious tourism development, especially in non-Western countries. This study investigated the attitudes of local residents toward tourists visiting four important mosques in Istanbul, Turkey and their perception of religious tourism development. All residents surveyed were practicing Muslims who prayed in a mosque at least once a year. We found that, in general, local residents are supportive of tourists visiting their mosque, but the level of support may differ based on the demographic and cultural background of the residents as well as on the number of tourists visiting the mosque.     

Big data in smart tourism: challenges,issues and opportunities

In the era of digital transformation, Big Data have assumed a crucial role in changing the global travel and providing significant challenges and opportunities for established companies, as well as new entrants into the tourism industry. All these companies can get valuable information on Big Data for predicting tourist demand, enabling better decision-making, managing knowledge flows and interaction with customers, and providing the best service in a more efficient and effective way. This can result in improved productivity, increased customer satisfaction, personalized marketing campaigns, and more efficient operations. However, open research issues about the role of Big Data in the tourism industry can be still recognized. With these premises, this Editorial aims to present the articles included in the special issue of Current Issues in Tourism titled ‘Big data in smart tourism: challenges, issues and opportunities’, which has called for research contributing to the recent debates on the implications and challenges of the adoption of Big Data to improve the competitiveness of tourism destinations and companies. Main topics considered by the accepted articles include a literature review proposing a novel theoretical investigative frameworks, metrics and critical dimensions, and empirical investigations of the use of Big Data in different tourism contexts.     

The impact of low cost airline entry on competition, network expansion, and stock valuations

We conduct event studies and statistical analysis to explore the impact of low cost carriers’ entry on legacy airline stock prices. Oligopoly structures, entry barriers, and high fixed costs make the airline industry highly susceptible to competitive and network expansion impact of low cost airlines’ entry. Positive stock returns are observed, which we interpret as the spillover effects of network expansion. Thus, rising passenger traffic and improved connectivity increase the revenues of legacy airlines to sufficiently offset the low cost carriers’ competitive threats.     

Travel and tourism competitiveness index: The impact of air transportation,railways transportation,travel and transport services on international inbound and outbound tourism

The objective of the study is to examine the impact of air transportation, railways transportation, travel and transport services on international inbound and outbound tourism in a panel of 19 tourists - oriented countries, over a period of 1990–2014. By applying principal component analysis, the study constructs travel and tourism competitiveness index for inbound and outbound tourism. The main constructs of inbound tourism index include international tourists' arrival, tourism receipts, receipts of passengers' transports items and travel items while the constructs of the outbound index include international tourists' departure, tourism expenditures, and expenditures for passengers transport and travel items. The result of panel Fully Modified OLS (FMOLS) regression shows that the presence of air transportation, railways transportation, and trade openness positively affect inbound tourism index, while travel and transport services negatively affect tourism competitiveness index. The causality results confirm the bidirectional relationship between inbound tourism, air transportation, railways passengers carried, trade openness and travel and transport services, while there is a unidirectional causality running from inbound index to railway goods transported, from air transport freight to trade factor, and from travel services to air transport freight. Outbound tourism index confirmed the bidirectional causality relationship with air transportation, railways transportation, and travel and transport services, while the causality running from outbound index to trade factor, from air transport passenger carried to travel services, and from railway goods transported to trade and transport services, which support the unidirectional causality relationship between them. The variance decomposition results show that air transportation freight is the contributor that largely influences inbound-outbound tourism, while railways passengers carried and trade openness has the least share to influence inbound and outbound tourism index for the next 10-year period. The impulse response function indicates that air transportation, railways transportation, trade openness and travel services will positively impact on inbound truism while travel and transport services will positively affect outbound tourism for the next 10-year period. The study concludes with the importance of transportation sector that deem desirable to promote tourism worldwide. The concentration of different modes of transportation including air transportation, railways transportation, and travel and transport system would helpful to advance international tourism.     

The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey

In the economic growth literature, the contribution of tourism to economic development has attracted great attention due to its significant roles as a source of foreign exchange earnings, creation of employment opportunities and an important source of public revenues in many countries. In this paper, we aim to analyse the empirical relationship between economic growth and tourism by employing different econometric techniques. First, we employed the Bound test approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001, Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326) in order to investigate the co-integration relationship between economic growth and tourism. Second, we used the Granger causality analysis for the 1998–2011 period and found evidence of a long-run uni-directional causality running from tourism to economic growth, but not vice versa. Our findings show that the Turkish case supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). Third, the autoregressive-distributed lag approach was employed in order to investigate the long-term and short-term static relationship between tourism and economic growth. The results show that tourism has a positive effect on gross domestic product and economic growth both in the long-term and short-term. Finally, the effect of tourism on economic growth was also investigated dynamically by employing the Kalman filter method. The findings of this method support the TLGH for Turkey.     

Tourism Policy,Tourism Organisations and Change Management in Alpine Regions and Destinations: A European Perspective

Tourism is of great economic importance and significance for the European East Alpine regions. But to an increasing degree, low productivity resulting from the small-business structure of the Alpine region weakens the economic and social leadership of tourism. In the last few decades overcoming these difficulties often included substantial supporting of institutionalised tourism organisations by tourism policy, with the intention to bundle forces and to achieve growing global competition. Change in international tourist markets demands the pursuance of completely new strategies, particularly because the small-business structure of Alpine tourism in the past has always been the basis for its many positive effects for the local and regional population alike. By keeping its function of balancing regional economic growth, tourism policy's main responsibility for the future in the East Alpine region will be to create the prerequisites required for an adaptation to the new situation in the tourist markets. In addition, the support of tourism organisations is needed for achieving corporate success, which cannot be realised by individual entrepreneurs in the tourist industry owing to their small-business structure. The key to adaptation lies in the improvement of qualifications. This improvement should lead to the development of new skills for tourist cooperations as a basis for the strategic transition from institutionalised tourism organisations to flexible and market-oriented destination management companies.     

Community resilience to long-term tourism decline and rejuvenation: a literature review and conceptual model

Studied for decades in disciplines such as ecology, psychology, engineering and sociology ‘resilience’ can be defined as a system's ability to withstand and respond to change. The tourism literature has embraced the concept of community resilience by harnessing concepts of adaptive capacity and vulnerability. Many of these studies have focused on the tourism system's ability to respond to short-term disasters and hazards. With the growth of resilience studies in tourism, it is timely to take stock of the core premise of resilience as it is applied to tourism and to identify key gaps in current research. Consequently, this research aims to identify the core concepts of community resilience, with a focus on its application within tourism. The findings reveal that many studies have been conceptual, although there are an increasing number of empirical studies underpinned by resilience theory. Therefore, a conceptual model is presented to broaden existing resilience research and to guide future research into community resilience to tourism decline and rejuvenation.     

Decline and turnaround: a literature review and proposed research agenda for the hotel sector

Tourism systems are composed of an inter-related and inter-dependent set of individual businesses, organisations and servicescapes. The hospitality industry, and more specifically the hotel sector, comprises many businesses that contribute significantly to the tourism system. Yet, the industry is renowned for business failures and poor financial returns. Increasing competition, globalisation, technology, social change and internal weaknesses are some of the reasons why tourism and hospitality businesses fail or perform significantly below expectations. When in a state of decline or poor performance, many businesses attempt a ‘turnaround’. Declining performance can have wide-ranging impacts not only on hotel businesses directly, but also upon those communities where local economies rely on tourism for jobs and economic prosperity. Consequently, an improved understanding of the processes of declining performance and turnarounds is particularly important to both researchers and practitioners. However, there has been limited research focused on turnarounds in the tourism industry, in general, and in the hotel industry, in particular. In this study we assess the literature on decline and turnarounds and propose an agenda for future research that will enhance our knowledge and inform ongoing debate on the process and impact of turnarounds in the hotel industry.