Analysis of Visitor Decision Making System When Visiting Natural Recreation Sites by Multinomial Logit Model

Multinomial Logit Model has analyzed the relationship between the frequency of visits to recreation areas and the motivational factors affecting the visits. Kastro Environment Preserving Site that is located in the Black Sea coast of Marmara region in Turkey, has been chosen as the site for this study. Kastro bay is a natural park that is visited only for recreational visits. The study has been conducted on a photogenic study group due to the proximity factor of Kastro bay close to Istanbul. Kastro bay is a popular recreational park due to its characteristic advantages such as a 200 m wide and approximately 2.5 km long beach and with its high quality vegetation. The vegetation type includes ash tree, oak tree, black pine, sand lily etc. Kastro bay is also the site for the Mediterranean seals (Monachus-monachus) which are at the level of extinction. Approximately 50,000 visitors visit the region during the months of July and August. It has been concluded that there is high direct correlation between the frequency of visits and the motivational factors. It has been determined that the visits are mostly based on the sea and the ecological tourism.Jel: O13, Q20, Q26, Q51, Q56, Q57     

Coordination in retailer-carrier channels for long term planning

We study a retailer-carrier channel for the purpose of long term planning and coordination. Here, the term channel represents the business interaction between the retailer and the carrier. The retailer sells a particular item with price-dependent demand, whereas the carrier is responsible for transporting the item to the retailer's site. We characterize the profit functions of each channel member as well as the total channel profit. We consider two specific channel structures: (i) the centralized channel and (ii) the decentralized channel. Under the first channel structure, the goal is to set the retail price so as to maximize the total channel profit. Under the latter, the carrier and the retailer choose their own policy parameters, i.e., the freight rate for the carrier and the retail price for the retailer, so as to maximize their individual profits. We model the decentralized channel as a Stackelberg Game and propose a coordination mechanism between the retailer and the carrier in which the retailer signals a price multiplier to the carrier. We illustrate that this mechanism could provide win-win solutions for both parties and present analytical and numerical results on the efficiency of channel coordination. We demonstrate that coordination in retailer-carrier channels can be as promising as supplier-retailer channels. We also discuss the effects of retailer-carrier coordination on inventory levels.     

The effects of financial literacy on the borrowing behaviour of Turkish financial consumers

Our research attempts to measure the effects of financial literacy of Turkish financial consumers on the borrowing behaviour. A questionnaire is administered to a sample of 550 people in the city of Eskisehir. In‐depth interviews are undertaken with 10 financial consumers to support the findings. Findings of the study indicate differences in the borrowing behaviour of consumers with different levels of financial literacy. Considering the relationship between financial literacy and borrowing behaviour, we suggest that attempts to increase financial literacy of financial consumers may have important implications in the prevention of excessive borrowing.     

On the persistence of income shocks over the life cycle: Evidence,theory, and implications

How does the persistence of earnings change over the life cycle? Do workers at different ages face the same variance of idiosyncratic earnings shocks? This paper proposes a novel specification for residual earnings that allows for an age profile in the persistence and variance of labor income shocks. We show that the statistical model is identified, and we estimate it using Panel Study of Income Dynamics data. We find that shocks to earnings are only moderately persistent (around 0.75) for young workers. Persistence rises with age, up to unity, until midway through life. The variance of persistent shocks exhibits a U-shaped profile over the life cycle (with a minimum of 0.01 and a maximum of 0.05). These results suggest that the standard specification in the literature (with age-invariant persistence and variance) cannot capture the earnings dynamics of young workers. We also argue that a calibrated job turnover model can account for these nonflat profiles. The key idea is that workers sort into better jobs and settle down as they age; in turn, magnitudes of wage growth rates decline, thereby decreasing the variance of shocks. Furthermore, the decline in job mobility results in higher persistence. Finally, we investigate the implications of age profiles for consumption–savings behavior. The welfare cost of idiosyncratic risk implied by the age-dependent income process is up to 1.6 percent of lifetime consumption lower compared with its age-invariant counterpart. This difference is mostly due to a higher degree of consumption insurance for young workers, for whom persistence is moderate. These results suggest that age profiles of persistence and variances should be taken into account when calibrating life-cycle models.     

Credit growth,current account and financial depth

Exploring the determinants and dynamics of the current account balance is one of the priorities of academic literature and policy circles. Although the effects of structural variables are deeply analysed, a lesser attention has been paid to the impact of financial variables. Drawing on standard empirical current account models and with a large sample of industrial and developing countries, we report a significant deterioration in the current account balance in case of an increase in the credit growth. Moreover, we find that this link is substantially stronger for the developing ones motivating a closer examination. Therefore, we further advance our analysis and show that credit growth causes a stronger impact on the current account balance for lower levels of financial depth. In other words, at the early stages of financial development, acceleration in the credit growth might cause a larger deterioration in the current account balance; thus, it might be suggested that monetary policy and macro-prudential measures aimed at preventing financial excess might be more effective to reduce the external imbalances at the early stages of financial deepening.     

The tourism-led growth hypothesis: empirical evidence from Turkey

In the economic growth literature, the contribution of tourism to economic development has attracted great attention due to its significant roles as a source of foreign exchange earnings, creation of employment opportunities and an important source of public revenues in many countries. In this paper, we aim to analyse the empirical relationship between economic growth and tourism by employing different econometric techniques. First, we employed the Bound test approach developed by Pesaran, Shin, and Smith (2001, Bounds testing approaches to the analysis of level relationships. Journal of Applied Econometrics, 16(3), 289–326) in order to investigate the co-integration relationship between economic growth and tourism. Second, we used the Granger causality analysis for the 1998–2011 period and found evidence of a long-run uni-directional causality running from tourism to economic growth, but not vice versa. Our findings show that the Turkish case supports the tourism-led growth hypothesis (TLGH). Third, the autoregressive-distributed lag approach was employed in order to investigate the long-term and short-term static relationship between tourism and economic growth. The results show that tourism has a positive effect on gross domestic product and economic growth both in the long-term and short-term. Finally, the effect of tourism on economic growth was also investigated dynamically by employing the Kalman filter method. The findings of this method support the TLGH for Turkey.     

4D cadastres: First analysis of legal,organizational, and technical impact—With a case study on utility networks

The increasing complexity and flexibility of modern land use requires that cadastres need an improved capacity to manage the third dimension. As the world is per definition not static, there also will be needs in relation to the representation of the temporal (fourth) dimension either integrated with the spatial dimensions or as separate attribute(s). In this paper, registration of utility networks in cadastre are considered in this 3D + time (=4D) context. A number of countries in the world have developed methods to register utility networks complying with their legal, organizational, and technical structure. We researched the different approaches of three specific countries: Turkey, The Netherlands and Queensland, Australia. These are analysed to evaluate a solution that matches legal, organizational, and technical cadastral requirements in the most optimal way.     

Antecedents of trust in industrial districts: an empirical analysis of inter-firm relations in a Turkish industrial district

Structural features and institutional settings of industrial districts, rather than contracts as a co-coordinating mechanism, promote trust in exchanges between firms in industrial districts. Based on this assumption, the paper explores the antecedents of trust in a Turkish industrial district at three levels: institutional environment; institutional arrangements; and inter-firm exchanges. In relation to institutional environment, dominant institutions of the Turkish economy – mainly state and finance – and their policies that undermine the role of SMEs in economic development are studied. In this context a third institution, the ‘district association’ that has a vital role in promoting trust-based governance has been analysed. At the second level, formal and informal institutional arrangements that govern the web of exchanges between firms are surveyed. The third level of analysis is directed at entrepreneurs and their attitudes towards family, friendship, expertise and reputation are studied. The research site is the Merter textile district in Istanbul. Data for second and third levels of analysis has been collected through structured interviews and is analysed quantitatively. For institutions and institutional environment, data has been collected mainly by in-depth interviews and is supported by secondary data. Research findings show that informal institutional arrangements are more important than formal arrangements and reputation and expertise of the other firm is more important than family-friendship connections as antecedents of trust.     

A note to life cycle cost for railway condition monitoring

Life cycle cost (LCC) calculation for railway condition monitoring is important to identify and measure benefits to be obtained when condition monitoring is applied to railway system and is achieved in [Marquez, G.F.P., Lewis, W.R., Tobias, M.A., Roberts, C., 2008. Life cycle cost for railway condition monitoring. Transportation Research Part E 44 (6), 1175–1187]. In this paper, the formula presented in [Marquez, G.F.P., Lewis, W.R., Tobias, M.A., Roberts, C., 2008. Life cycle cost for railway condition monitoring. Transportation Research Part E 44 (6), 1175–1187] for savings in penalty cost is rephrased and its extraction from probability theory is presented. In addition, one of the terms used in the formula is redefined and its formulation is updated. Thus, the mathematical base of the LCC calculation is enhanced with updates presented in the paper.